Maximum Salary You Would Want Your Team Paying Tavares?

[Sidney the Kidney]

I mean he is playing 1:41 less than his career average and shooting about 3% worse than his career shooting percentage. His chances could be lower probably because he's playing less?

The minutes shouldn't matter because I was using rates per 60 in my analysis. So his "raw" numbers would be affected by less ice time, but if he was still creating chances at the same rate per minute, his per 60 shouldn't be affected too much. At least not to the degree it is.

Also checking his heat maps this year(a part of it), I think I would say he has an above-average defense. He's not allowing a lot of slots shot it seems. Last year seemed good aswell.

Only till the end of Febuary.
https://i0.wp.com/theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2021/02/download-2.png?resize=1536,400&ssl=1

Reason I say "average" defensively is because NST lists 130 centers who qualify at 300 minutes at 5on5. Tavares' various "against" metrics fall somewhere about the middle of that, which would be "average" by definition. For him to be playing above average, he should probably be ranked in the 40-50 range in most categories among those 130 centers. Instead, most categories he's 6o-ish, with his best category being 57th and his worst being 84th.

But I'm not going to argue that too much since it's probably semantics. Even if he's been above average defensively, I still think that's not enough to offset him being disappointing (for what he's paid) offensively.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

The minutes shouldn't matter because I was using rates per 60 in my analysis. So his "raw" numbers would be affected by less ice time, but if he was still creating chances at the same rate per minute, his per 60 shouldn't be affected too much. At least not to the degree it is.



Reason I say "average" defensively is because NST lists 130 centers who qualify at 300 minutes at 5on5. Tavares' various "against" metrics fall somewhere about the middle of that, which would be "average" by definition. For him to be playing above average, he should probably be ranked in the 40-50 range in most categories among those 130 centers. Instead, most categories he's 6o-ish, with his best category being 57th and his worst being 84th.

But I'm not going to argue that too much since it's probably semantics. Even if he's been above average defensively, I still think that's not enough to offset him being disappointing (for what he's paid) offensively.

Fair on all points, I still think Tavares's game has changed a bit, he's added another dynamic late into his career, his skating is a bit improved and he finishes the occasional check. I think once he can get his consistent third winger his offense can improve. He's had Nylander all year but his 3rd winger has been a mixed bag. But for an 11 million dollar player, he's obviously not an upper-echelon player anymore. I don't think a single Leafs fan would disagree that Tavares's offense this year has not been amazing.

 

[Thenameless]

I'd be happy to pay him in that 7-8 range now. Montreal needs someone like him.

I'd even be willing to pay more if we were a contender, and I thought he could be the difference maker, but I don't see us making a Cup run in the next few years.

 

[MattMartin]

Lol you guys did not dodge a bullet, you lost your captain and by far your best player. The first year after he left he scored 47 goals. You guys might have won the cup with that.

Nostradamus, that you? A hilarious bad take btw. We don't have a Marner or Matthews, even with those 2 guys he can't get of the 1st round!

If the Leafs didn't blow 11 mil on him, they could have used that money on D and they could have won a cup by now.

 

[ER89]

As a Islander fan, boy we dodged a bulle...... nuclear bomb. People will reply "you could have used him on the pp last playoffs". They forget with JT's contract we probably don't have Lee, Nelson, and Pageau . So while Tavares is the best of the bunch, we have to fill 2 other spots with just about 6 million in cap space.

And leafs dodged a bullet on komarov. Iknow which bullet i'd rather dodge.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

I’d easily swap him with Skinner if that’s any help. Toronto wouldn’t even have to eat $1M to “balance” it out.

 

[MardyBum]

I picked under 7 because we have two top 6 C's and Maurice uses the third line as a shutdown D line.

Taking the team into account, we don't need to be spending more money on a F.

In a vaccuum probably 8?

 

[snipes]

He’s had pretty similar production to Nuge last year and again this year, so around $6M?

That contract is going to be a boat anchor in the years to come.

 

[MattMartin]

And leafs dodged a bullet on komarov. Iknow which bullet i'd rather dodge.

Yeah, don't forget we took Martin off your hands and you dodged that one as well. OH WAIT, Martin has more even strength goals than Tavares this year....

Matt Martin
Season	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	GWG	OTG	S	S%
2020-2021	33	5	4	9	4	18	0	0	0	0	0	0	44	11.4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

John Tavares
Season	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	GWG	OTG	S	S%
2020-2021	32	9	18	27	10	8	5	9	0	0	1	0	87	10.3

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Also, Martin/Komarov back to back playoff series winning 1 round the 1st year and making it to the ECF's last year.
John Tavares in 2 seasons, knocked out in round 1 and didn't qualify last year.

 

[Byron Bitz]

Nostradamus, that you? A hilarious bad take btw. We don't have a Marner or Matthews, even with those 2 guys he can't get of the 1st round!

If the Leafs didn't blow 11 mil on him, they could have used that money on D and they could have won a cup by now.

Our D has actually been good this year. Rielly-Brodie has been a good top pairing and Muzzin-Holl has been a solid second pair. Our issue has been goaltending. Anyways all I know is if I had the option of voiding Tavares contract I wouldn’t do it. He’s an amazing player and great captain and I’m happy to have him at 11 million.

 

[MattMartin]

Our D has actually been good this year. Rielly-Brodie has been a good top pairing and Muzzin-Holl has been a solid second pair. Our issue has been goaltending. Anyways all I know is if I had the option of voiding Tavares contract I wouldn’t do it. He’s an amazing player and great captain and I’m happy to have him at 11 million.

I think you would be one of the few people who think JT is earning his 11 mil this year. Just my 2 cents. Also, I just don't think the Islanders would be as good if we kept him. Too many players would not be here if he didn't leave.

I can't say for sure, but I know Lee and either Nelson/Eberle would be goners for sure. I'm not sure if we could have gotten JGP as well.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Soooo
You've gone to the Boston board to complain about Bergeron
Washington for Ovechkin
Pittsburgh for Malkin

All players he's out pointing

so...have you?

Ovi and Malkin have both been hot (at least until Malkin got injured) so is there to point out

 

[ER89]

Yeah, don't forget we took Martin off your hands and you dodged that one as well. OH WAIT, Martin has more even strength goals than Tavares this year....

Matt Martin
Season	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	GWG	OTG	S	S%
2020-2021	33	5	4	9	4	18	0	0	0	0	0	0	44	11.4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

John Tavares
Season	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	GWG	OTG	S	S%
2020-2021	32	9	18	27	10	8	5	9	0	0	1	0	87	10.3

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Also, Martin/Komarov back to back playoff series winning 1 round the 1st year and making it to the ECF's last year.
John Tavares in 2 seasons, knocked out in round 1 and didn't qualify last year.

LOL at the mental gymnastics going on at convincing yourself that you'd rather have matt martin and komo. Have fun with that.

 

[MattMartin]

LOL at the mental gymnastics going on at convincing yourself that you'd rather have matt martin and komo. Have fun with that.

Now where did I ever say that Martin and Komarov are better than Tavares, speaking of mental gymnastics.

I do think Lee/Nelson/JGP are worth more than Tavares/JGP/2 mil in cap space though. Not sure where we getting a 2nd line center for 2 mil.

 

[ER89]

Now where did I ever say that Martin and Komarov are better than Tavares, speaking of mental gymnastics.

I do think Lee/Nelson/JGP are worth more than Tavares/JGP/2 mil in cap space though. Not sure where we getting a 2nd line center for 2 mil.

This is true.

 

[snowkiddin]

It was a pretty bad contract when it was signed and is only getting worse. I think right now I’d be okay giving him $8 million short term knowing that in a couple years he won’t be worth even that.

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

League minimum. Ideally, he wouldn't have bargaining rights and would be grateful with what meager dollars he was given.

 

[BlueBaron]

Better question.

Why?

Pretty obvious this isn't a thread to talk about how great it is. OP is a special kind of Leaf fan.

"Beat up on my team and gm plz".

Bizarre.

 

[jetsforever]

9-10 is fine with me

 

[Voight]

If he was a UFA today, the max id be ok with is 7.5 mil. Hes regressing pretty hard so for the next 2 years hes likely an 8mil caliber player, then 2 years after around a 7 mil and 2 years after is a 6 mil. So roughly 7 - 7.5 mil average

He was basically PPG last year.... and scored 88 points + career high in goals the year before. Not sure how that is regressing.

 

[keglu]

He was basically PPG last year.... and scored 88 points + career high in goals the year before. Not sure how that is regressing.

So he went from over PPG -> under PPG -> 70 points pace but you are not sure how is he regressing?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Some folks seem to be having trouble with the concept of "the maximum you would pay". Saying "LOL then if we get to choose, I'd pay $1 dollar" in the context of the OP's question essentially means you wouldn't want Tavares on your team for anything over $1 dollar.

No, you just seem to have completely missed the point. $1 is about as realistic and truthful of a "maximum" as most of the answers in here, including your ridiculous 7-8 mil.