Value of: Max Pacioretty

[Omar]

Just cause you are a goal scorer (and struggling at that), does not mean Kopitar is going to be your savior. Look at Toffoli who has the best shot on the team, but plays better with Carter because he is faster than Kopitar. Lucic had the same problem about not fitting well with Kopitar. Gaborik was awesome for 2014 Cup run, but horrible after that not even Kopi can help him. There are no guarantees. It would be like saying, I will wait to sign Max when he is a UFA since we have Kopi for him. For sure he will sign.

Pass on the proposal. Muzzin has much more value than Max. + i would not trade Vilardi and a 1st for Montreals pick

If you think Muzzin is worth more than a top 5 goal scorer in the NHL over the last 6 years I suggest you switch sports. May I suggest Curling or Pole Vaulting.

 

[Omar]

yes we should because what he did 5 years ago isnt as relevant as what he's doing today and that goes for ANY player

you keep saying forget what he did this year, im saying look at his whole career but give more weight to the current data, because its more relevant and thats for everyone because people age and things change

those are the facts of life whether habs fans like it or not

Yes put more weight on recent data. A statistician will tell you to take out anomalies in doing data analysis. Including the best and worst data points. At least know what you’re talking about before framing your opinion as the facts of life.

 

[72hockey guy]

Yes put more weight on recent data. A statistician will tell you to take out anomalies in doing data analysis. Including the best and worst data points. At least know what you’re talking about before framing your opinion as the facts of life.

dodo i know better than you I didnt put in23 years as a senior analyst With the IRS without understanding basic statistical principles.

and just for your edification the season Pacioretty had is not an anomaly. an Anomaly is defined as:

"a deviation from the common rule, type, arrangement"

there is no rule or arrangement that says Pacioretty has to score 35 goals

he just isnt as good as he was in the Past. he"s a human being not an equation or a statistical variable recency is a statistical term used in regression, which is in fact what pacioretty is doing....regressing

try again

 

[member 88115]

If you think Muzzin is worth more than a top 5 goal scorer in the NHL over the last 6 years I suggest you switch sports. May I suggest Curling or Pole Vaulting.

Even if Max had an extra year, i still would not trade Muzzin for Max. Max was barely a top 5 goal scorer on his own team this year. Not a put down, but Muzzin finished with more points this year while being an important player on one the best defensive teams on the league. Like we would say when we missed the playoffs, u can put up ur sign that reads, "GONE FISHING". Later...

 

[CauZuki]

dodo i know better than you I didnt put in23 years as a senior analyst With the IRS without understanding basic statistical principles.

and just for your edification the season Pacioretty had is not an anomaly. an Anomaly is defined as:

"a deviation from the common rule, type, arrangement"

there is no rule or arrangement that says Pacioretty has to score 35 goals

he just isnt as good as he was in the Past. he"s a human being not an equation or a statistical variable recency is a statistical term used in regression, which is in fact what pacioretty is doing....regressing

try again

I find it interesting when someone uses statistics to make an argument only to say after that stats don't matter and people are humans. Is it not possible for a human to have a down year due to other factors?

He's 29, not exactly over the hill..

 

[Omar]

dodo i know better than you I didnt put in23 years as a senior analyst With the IRS without understanding basic statistical principles.

and just for your edification the season Pacioretty had is not an anomaly. an Anomaly is defined as:

"a deviation from the common rule, type, arrangement"

there is no rule or arrangement that says Pacioretty has to score 35 goals

he just isnt as good as he was in the Past. he"s a human being not an equation or a statistical variable recency is a statistical term used in regression, which is in fact what pacioretty is doing....regressing

try again

Well I have a PhD in statistics. There’s nothing to show that Pacioretty just isn’t as good as he was in the past. This is a single season.

 

[405Exit]

1st+B prospect+roster player

No ones offering that. Montreal was asking that at the trade deadline and no one bit. What makes you think anyone in the off season would? Patches will go for a late first / early second + b prospect with one year remaining. Anything more is overpayment. He’s pretty much a rental without a contract extension.

 

[HOPE]

dodo i know better than you I didnt put in23 years as a senior analyst With the IRS without understanding basic statistical principles.

and just for your edification the season Pacioretty had is not an anomaly. an Anomaly is defined as:

"a deviation from the common rule, type, arrangement"

there is no rule or arrangement that says Pacioretty has to score 35 goals

he just isnt as good as he was in the Past. he"s a human being not an equation or a statistical variable recency is a statistical term used in regression, which is in fact what pacioretty is doing....regressing

try again

Theres a couple of player who likes to say hello to you...

Giroux, the guy who was a "cap dump last season" 102pts

kopitar was declining because he was getting older! 92pts

Ovechkin will never be a PPG player again! 87 pts

staal is done... he'll never have an impact again, lets sign him for 3 years only at 3.5M! 76pts.

theres still example out there! players have bad seasons, it happens! Pacioretty has been consistant year after year beside this season where everyone hasn't been playing good, pacioretty is a complimentary player too, you have to consider this! look at Mackinnon, Of course he's still young but he didnt come this good overnight, team success and chemistry is a big factor! theres things we also don't know was he injured, unhappy, not feeling good in the spot he is? He indeed didn't play good this season its undeniable and not defending him, but saying he's on declines due to statistic?! If you say you have 23 years in senior analyst, you should know better. Constant production with a massive drop isn't declining.

 

[Dbrownss]

No ones offering that. Montreal was asking that at the trade deadline and no one bit. What makes you think anyone in the off season would? Patches will go for a late first / early second + b prospect with one year remaining. Anything more is overpayment. He’s pretty much a rental without a contract extension.

It would depend on what is considered a B prospect. The rumors were Viliardi and Thomas, those are A prospect. The roster player may not hold much value.

That's my evaluation of the package.

 

[72hockey guy]

Theres a couple of player who likes to say hello to you...

Giroux, the guy who was a "cap dump last season" 102pts

kopitar was declining because he was getting older! 92pts

Ovechkin will never be a PPG player again! 87 pts

staal is done... he'll never have an impact again, lets sign him for 3 years only at 3.5M! 76pts.

theres still example out there! players have bad seasons, it happens! Pacioretty has been consistant year after year beside this season where everyone hasn't been playing good, pacioretty is a complimentary player too, you have to consider this! look at Mackinnon, Of course he's still young but he didnt come this good overnight, team success and chemistry is a big factor! theres things we also don't know was he injured, unhappy, not feeling good in the spot he is? He indeed didn't play good this season its undeniable and not defending him, but saying he's on declines due to statistic?! If you say you have 23 years in senior analyst, you should know better. Constant production with a massive drop isn't declining.

did i ever say hes finished? no i did not and for every player you can name who had a bad season, and returned to prior production I can name one who didnt. you know for a fact that players in general start to decline around the age of 30, some dont, but many do

I just said that statistically he suffered a decline and he did and guess what YOU cant deny it. you can give what ever excuse you wish, but you cannot Guarantee that a player will return to former production. may I introduce you to dennis maruk, who was a 7 time 30 goal scorer who at 27, never came close to 30 again, and he was a hell of alot better scorer than Pacioretty (80 more goals than pacioretty does now in 2 extra seasons for pacioretty)

Jimmy Carson, a five time 30 goal scorer had his 5th at the age of 24and never came close to 30 again, You assert that others have come back from a bad year and some do, but many do not,

Thomas Vanek averaged 32 goals a season over 8 years when at age 30 and he hasnt cme close to 30 since, averaging 20 goals the last 4 seasons.

Marian Gaborik had 7 seasons of 30 or more goals, averaging 36 a season in those years when at 29, the same age as pacioretty, he stopped being an elite goal scorer and has averaged 15 a year since.

the point being that players of much better ability stopped being elite scorers at an even earlier age, and only a fool wouldnt be cognizant of it., if you truly believe this is a one year down turn, by all means keep him, but even Hab fans almost unanimously want to get rid of him. given his bad year, and the fact that even Hab fans cant wait to get rid of him, why should ANYONE believe what you say?

if even you dont believe he'll bounce back in Montreal, then why should anyone else believe he will anywhere else

 

[Omar]

Theres a couple of player who likes to say hello to you...

Giroux, the guy who was a "cap dump last season" 102pts

kopitar was declining because he was getting older! 92pts

Ovechkin will never be a PPG player again! 87 pts

staal is done... he'll never have an impact again, lets sign him for 3 years only at 3.5M! 76pts.

theres still example out there! players have bad seasons, it happens! Pacioretty has been consistant year after year beside this season where everyone hasn't been playing good, pacioretty is a complimentary player too, you have to consider this! look at Mackinnon, Of course he's still young but he didnt come this good overnight, team success and chemistry is a big factor! theres things we also don't know was he injured, unhappy, not feeling good in the spot he is? He indeed didn't play good this season its undeniable and not defending him, but saying he's on declines due to statistic?! If you say you have 23 years in senior analyst, you should know better. Constant production with a massive drop isn't declining.

Lolll @72hockey guy owned

 

[72hockey guy]

Well I have a PhD in statistics. There’s nothing to show that Pacioretty just isn’t as good as he was in the past. This is a single season.

you no more have a Phd IN ANYTHING, Benny Hill does in Nuclear Physics I knew that when I read your first post.

I just gave 4 examples of players, Pacioreyy's age or younger, who did just that, so youre wrong, if youre so positive you are correct Keep him. its Habs fans Dogged insistence on trading him that is driving down any value he has..... not one of you want to keep him. dont you realize he's your star forward....people see you cant wait to be rid of him and they know something is wrong

 

[72hockey guy]

Lolll @72hockey guy owned

no you are owned

i just gave 4 other players who are the same age as pacioretty or Younger who never returned to their former ability

OMAR OWNED

the more you guys insist on not keeping him, the less likely anyone will meet your price.

the burden of proof isnt on me.. youre the ones insisting he will bounce back. so the burden is on habs fans, all ive said is there is no guarantee that he will, and there isnt

so omar prove he will

(and if you say anything else but I cant do that, people will see you as the liar you are) at least Hope can make an intelligent argument and if you truly do Have a Phd, where did you get it, a cereal box?

I've already told Hope what I believe is Pacioretty 's issue and it isn't center related. It's much simpler than that. What's funny is you Omar have no idea what the real problem is. It's why I respect Hope. He recognized the truth as soon as I mentioned one name

 

[Hostile Offer]

the more you guys insist on not keeping him, the less likely anyone will meet your price.

Err... How is a bunch of Habs fans making trade proposals lowering his value? It's the same freaking player no matter how you look at it. The reason Habs fans want him out is because the situation has gotten pretty toxic with him this year (multiple reasons, not only because of his slump in production) and a change seems like the correct thing to do for both parties.

 

[72hockey guy]

Err... How is a bunch of Habs fans making trade proposals lowering his value? It's the same freaking player no matter how you look at it. The reason Habs fans want him out is because the situation has gotten pretty toxic with him this year (multiple reasons, not only because of his slump in production) and a change seems like the correct thing to do for both parties.

because the toxicity is obvious,Gms know Bergevins in hot water. And they know exactly what you said. So that lowers his perceived value. do you honestly think other GMs are blind to fan unrest. Get real. The blood is in the water.

They know he's been available for a year at least. If sharks can tell the difference. GM's can as well. fans are like chum. They exude the panic and that's a bad time to be trying to get a sellers best deal.

 

[Hostile Offer]

because the toxicity is obvious,Gms know Bergevins in hot water. And they know exactly what you said. So that lowers his perceived value. do you honestly think other GMs are blind to fan unrest. Get real. The blood is in the water.

Do we have to bring up the Duchene case again? And this situation with Patches is not even close to as bad as that.

 

[72hockey guy]

Do we have to bring up the Duchene case again? And this situation with Patches is not even close to as bad as that.

Duchene was Melnyk and teams know he's an outlier. And he's paying for it. Good luck getting a Duchene return for Pacioretty.

 

[CanadienShark]

dodo i know better than you I didnt put in23 years as a senior analyst With the IRS without understanding basic statistical principles.

and just for your edification the season Pacioretty had is not an anomaly. an Anomaly is defined as:

"a deviation from the common rule, type, arrangement"

there is no rule or arrangement that says Pacioretty has to score 35 goals

he just isnt as good as he was in the Past. he"s a human being not an equation or a statistical variable recency is a statistical term used in regression, which is in fact what pacioretty is doing....regressing

try again

You should try some stats classes again. English classes wouldn't hurt either.

 

[Hostile Offer]

Duchene was Melnyk and teams know he's an outlier. And he's paying for it. Good luck getting a Duchene return for Pacioretty.

I am not expecting a Duchene return. Duchene is playing the more coveted position, is younger and had more term left when he was traded. But you vastly exaggerate the impact of off ice issues regarding Patches' trade value. It's not like teams were turning up their noses when they heard Duchene is available, he was really coveted despite issues both on and off ice. Writing it off just because Melnyk is the owner of the team that acquired him doesn't really make sense to me.

 

[SufferingCatFan]

Panthers fan without dog in the fight. Patches at 29 is coming off a bad year, has one year remaining on his contract and, despite the Habs' best efforts, was not traded at the deadline. No one here knows what was his real asking price at the TDL, what offer(s) the Habs received and rejected, or what the level of interest will be in Patches in the off season. Then there is the "greater fool" effect. How many times have we witnessed a desperate GM over paying for an asset? On the other hand, how many times have we seen a trade dump? No one here is right or wrong regardless of the methodology employed. We are all just guessing about what the future will bring.

 

[Omar]

no you are owned

i just gave 4 other players who are the same age as pacioretty or Younger who never returned to their former ability

OMAR OWNED

the more you guys insist on not keeping him, the less likely anyone will meet your price.

the burden of proof isnt on me.. youre the ones insisting he will bounce back. so the burden is on habs fans, all ive said is there is no guarantee that he will, and there isnt

so omar prove he will

(and if you say anything else but I cant do that, people will see you as the liar you are) at least Hope can make an intelligent argument and if you truly do Have a Phd, where did you get it, a cereal box?

I've already told Hope what I believe is Pacioretty 's issue and it isn't center related. It's much simpler than that. What's funny is you Omar have no idea what the real problem is. It's why I respect Hope. He recognized the truth as soon as I mentioned one name

I know when to stop arguing with someone.

It doesn’t matter how many players you name. Because you said Pacioretty will not be back to his best as it it were fact. So many players bounce back after a bad year that it’s not even an argument.

So take care.

 

[ole ole]

No ones offering that. Montreal was asking that at the trade deadline and no one bit. What makes you think anyone in the off season would? Patches will go for a late first / early second + b prospect with one year remaining. Anything more is overpayment. He’s pretty much a rental without a contract extension.

How do you know what the Habs were asking. What do you know what was offered and by who. You go around making statements like you know everything when in fact you know jack-shit about what the asking price was/what was offered and by who.

 

[ole ole]

Even if Max had an extra year, i still would not trade Muzzin for Max. Max was barely a top 5 goal scorer on his own team this year. Not a put down, but Muzzin finished with more points this year while being an important player on one the best defensive teams on the league. Like we would say when we missed the playoffs, u can put up ur sign that reads, "GONE FISHING". Later...

What does missing the playoffs have to do with Max?

 

[72hockey guy]

I'm not anti Hab and never have been. I just have seen what some habs fans have asked for in the beginning.(2#1sts plus a top prospect. And don't deny it, I quoted the post to fault and fracture months ago) to the last month (Robert Thomas and a 2nd, remember that?) All I've done act as a voice of reason to counteract the Hab fans like Omar and Draft day, the ones with no clue, to leave the discussion open to the more rational Hab fans like Hope and fault and fracture.

Just like with Carey Price there are Hab fans who view him with great value and some with a more logical view who see the contract and who realize it's as deterrent that needs to be managed.

It comes down to this if Hab fans themselves won't "call out" the habs fans who are irrational. Then I'm more than happy to do it.

 

[Captain97]

I feel if Habs had some hope their offensive numbers would improve next year, they would have traded Max.
But who is out there knocking at the first 2 lines door? Lehkonen and Hudon look like 10 goals guys, Galchenyuk a 50 pt but defensive nut, Danault never scored 14 goals.

Lehkonen had 18 goals last year amd hudon's advanced numbers suggest he will be better next year. But hey 10 goal guys (both have at least 10 this year as well).