Matthews Vs Boeser (Goals)

[Kelly]

Why don't you ask Kelly why he/she thinks it is ridiculous in his/her words to compare Boeser to Matthews as goals scorers when their careers are over. Other than citing sample size, he/she has not provided one good reason why this is the case, classic cop out. But This is what the OP asked.

Do you also think it is ridiculous that Boeser may not be in the same territory as goal scorers one day. If so, why? And if not, why are you not challenging Kelly on his dismissal of this notion. Seems to me you only want one part of the argument here.

I think right now it is, but I also said lets revisit it at the end of the year with a much larger sample size.
I have provided a couple reasons, why I think it's a tad ridiculous RIGHT NOW:

Matthews scored 40, a year and a half younger (D+1 vs D+3)
sample size (I know you don't like hearing this because it crumbles your argument, but its very legit, and the biggest reason why)

Again, if Boeser hits 40 this year, even though Matthews did it younger, he definitely should be talked about as the same tier of goal scorers as Matthews/Laine.

This is all fine and dandy but what does it have to do with this thread, the 2 players we are discussing and the topic. Nothing.

It unearths how ridiculous your argument is. It's very relevant.

 

[jetsforever]

Matthews I'd guess

 

[Lawzy]

I'll bite.

Boeser is shooting at 21%. Matthews is at 16.3% this year. Do you expect Boeser to continuously have a shooting percentage that's almost 25% higher than Laine's?

Also "similar conditions" lol. One is the topC on a playoff team and the other is a winger playing with two hall of famers.

Vanek and Gagner? If you're not going to watch the Boeser play, at least do your research. Boeser does not play with the Sedins, nor has he all season.

Perhaps you're trying to make the argument he's a product of the Sedins on the powerplay? Odd argument to take given that the Canucks had the second worst powerplay last season (%14.1) without Boeser. With the addition of Boeser the powerplay is clicking at a %22.2 rate, good for 8th overall.

Must be them Sedins.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Vanek and Gagner? If you're not going to watch the Boeser play, at least do your research. Boeser does not play with the Sedins, nor has he all season.

Perhaps you're trying to make the argument he's a product of the Sedins on the powerplay? Odd argument to take given that the Canucks had the second worst powerplay last season (%14.1) without Boeser. With the addition of Boeser the powerplay is clicking at a %22.2 rate, good for 8th overall.

Must be them Sedins.

Boeser has spent 5% of his ES time with Gagner and Vanek, and 10% of his time with the Sedins. Mostly he's played with Horvat and Baertschi, but I have no idea why you're trying to pretend he hasn't played more with the Sedins than with Vanek and Gagner

But yes he has benefited from playing with the Sedins, as I'm sure they benefit from playing with him

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I think right now it is, but I also said lets revisit it at the end of the year with a much larger sample size.
I have provided a couple reasons, why I think it's a tad ridiculous RIGHT NOW:

Matthews scored 40, a year and a half younger (D+1 vs D+3)
sample size (I know you don't like hearing this because it crumbles your argument, but its very legit, and the biggest reason why)

Again, if Boeser hits 40 this year, even though Matthews did it younger, he definitely should be talked about as the same tier of goal scorers as Matthews/Laine.



It unearths how ridiculous your argument is. It's very relevant.

If this is your go to response. Let's wait until we have a bigger sample reply when you feel threatened that another player may be as good or better than your favourite player.

You do realize how ridiculous it is to post on an opinion based site on hockey if you are only willing to listen to arguments after the fact.

This makes as much sense as your hockey argument here, which makes no sense for both. I won't expect many opinions from you then until after the season is over okay?

 

[Lawzy]

Boeser has spent 5% of his ES time with Gagner and Vanek, and 10% of his time with the Sedins. Mostly he's played with Horvat and Baertschi, but I have no idea why you're trying to pretend he hasn't played more with the Sedins than with Vanek and Gagner

But yes he has benefited from playing with the Sedins, as I'm sure they benefit from playing with him

Green just recently put Gagner and Vanek with Boeser, I don't expect them to have much ES time together. Boeser plays with Horvat and Baertschi. When he isn't playing with Horvat and Baertschi he is being pivoted and double shifted throughout the lineup. To pretend he is playing with the Sedins is incredibly disingenuous.

Of course he benefits from playing with the Sedins. The same way Matthews benefits from playing with Nylander. The Sedins aren't the players they used to be and you'd quickly realize how much they benefit from Boeser as opposed to Boeser benefiting from the Sedins if you simply watched them play hockey.

Why are you claiming I stated he plays with Vanek and Gagner more than the Sedins? What I said was he is playing with Vanek and Gagner. Because he is. Those are his current linemates.

For the record, I'm not even arguing this because I want to prove Boeser is better than Matthews. He's not. I would take Matthews over Boeser without a second thought. That being said, it doesn't excuse people from making disingenuous and flat out false claims.

 

[IPS]

If this is your go to response. Let's wait until we have a bigger sample reply when you feel threatened that another player may be as good or better than your favourite player.

You do realize how ridiculous it is to post on an opinion based site on hockey if you are only willing to listen to arguments after the fact.

This makes as much sense as your hockey argument here, which makes no sense for both. I won't expect many opinions from you then until after the season is over okay?

We sure do.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Sample size is a legit argument that you just want to disregard for some reason.

Sure it is. We are using what available data we have to this point are we not? We can close this board and wait until after the season where we can have an after the fact discussion as some suggest. But simply going to the small sample size retort is really an avoidence or tatic here in avoiding the topic. You and I know it, Kelly knows this. I for one am going to make opinions during the season. For those that want a larges ample size perhaps after the season need not to reply to me or in this thread. If this is all they can offer to the discussion.

 

[Love]

Matthews has a 40 goal season under his belt already. At the very least, that extra year in their careers gives Matthews a very good head start in the "who will have more goals and points in their careers" race.

Matthews had 40g while shooting 14% last year. Boeser has 19 so far this year while shooting 21%. Anyone expecting Boeser to continue scoring on 20+% of his shots is out to lunch. He's obviously a dynamic offensive talent and will be a very prolific goalscorer. But even giving him Patrik Laine's normalized shooting percentage of 17% puts him at 15.5 goals for the year which is a 39g pace. So either Boeser is going to be the greatest shooter of the era by almost 25%, or he'll probably cool off a bit and be a 40g rookie and 40g threat every year. As he develops in the league, he's very likely to get better and could be a 50g threat in some years. The great thing is though, that the underlined part applies to Matthews as well. I'd expect Matthews to score more goals in most years because I'm a homer and I also don't actually expect Boeser to average 17% shooting over his career. But I also recognize that Boeser is clearly a hell of a player and 40g this season isn't out of the question.

I'll bite.

Boeser is shooting at 21%. Matthews is at 16.3% this year. Do you expect Boeser to continuously have a shooting percentage that's almost 25% higher than Laine's?

Also "similar conditions" lol. One is the topC on a playoff team and the other is a winger playing with two hall of famers.

The shooting percentage argument against Boeser is an OK argument... but only an OK one.

I agree that he won't be a 20% shooter forever. But he also won't be playing merely 16 minutes a game forever. He'll likely be around an average of 19 minutes sooner rather than later. So we can say "Boeser's goals will plummet as his shooting percentage normalizes" but that is a far too simplistic take on things. As his shooting percentage normalizes, so will his ice time. Therefore his shots will increase.

I'm not saying his goal scoring won't decrease from his current pace (He's scoring at a 47 goal pace after all) but I don't think it will be some sort of significant drop off. Especially since Boeser will likely be a higher than normal shooting percentage player anyway. His shot is just way too good and he is a patient player who picks his spots with his shot very well. He's not a volume shooter like Ovechkin or Evander Kane.

Also LeafGrief, Boeser barely plays with the Sedins. And the Sedins were utterly terrible this season... until Green put Boeser on their PP unit. Coincidence?

 

[Ace of Hades]

Boeser has a high shooting percentage even when he was in college.

He'll be similar to Laine when their career shooting percentage will remain high rather than be on the norm side of things.

and Boeser has nothing/no beneficiary when it comes to even strength wise. He's carrying the team on his back offensively and is responsible for scoring ~20 percent of the Canucks goals, as a rookie with a bum foot with crappy to mediocre linemates even strength. Highly highly impressive. On the powerplay the Sedins are benefitting more than what Boeser is. Oh and he gets no help from the back end, because the defense sucks/inept offensively and doesn't have any d-man that can contribute to Boeser offensive ouput. They are all anchors/blacholes in the backend.

Matthews plays with a far better linemate in Nylander during his rookie season than what Boeser has currently, ainec. With that said, Matthews belongs in the conversation.

I see it as Laine, Matthews, and Boeser competing for the Rocket richard during their whole careers, while three of them will have atleast have won one time by the time their career is over. Ofc others will compete, but these three names stick up more when it comes to goal scoring. Potentially wise, I'd say Boeser may end up being a better goal scorer than Matthews.

 

[LeafGrief]

The shooting percentage argument against Boeser is an OK argument... but only an OK one.

I agree that he won't be a 20% shooter forever. But he also won't be playing merely 16 minutes a game forever. He'll likely be around an average of 19 minutes sooner rather than later. So we can say "Boeser's goals will plummet as his shooting percentage normalizes" but that is a far too simplistic take on things. As his shooting percentage normalizes, so will his ice time. Therefore his shots will increase.

I'm not saying his goal scoring won't decrease from his current pace (He's scoring at a 47 goal pace after all) but I don't think it will be some sort of significant drop off. Especially since Boeser will likely be a higher than normal shooting percentage player anyway. His shot is just way too good and he is a patient player who picks his spots with his shot very well. He's not a volume shooter like Ovechkin or Evander Kane.

Also LeafGrief, Boeser barely plays with the Sedins. And the Sedins were utterly terrible this season... until Green put Boeser on their PP unit. Coincidence?

I don't want to nitpick too much, but it's hard to tell me in two sentences that Boeser barely plays with the Sedins and that he is saving their seasons. But I don't really want to argue about it, it was more about making a point to the other poster. I was clearly incorrect about Boeser's primary linemates.

Matthews scored his 40g last year averaging 17:38. I made my first statements with the expectation that Boeser will continue to develop. He will get more comfortable in the league and his coach will trust him with even more minutes. But there has to be some expectation for Matthews to improve as well. I'm expecting Boeser to be an elite scorer and he will likely have a shooting percentage that is well above average. But to be completely honest, I don't expect him to be that far ahead of Matthews in terms of shooting percentage, Matthews is very much an elite shooter. Even if Boeser settles in around 2% ahead of Matthews for their careers, which I think is rather optimistic, Matthews is still a far better shot generator. In the simple stats, over their careers so far Boeser averages 2.76 shots per game (116s in 42gp) while Matthews averages 3.32 (359s in 108gp). Over 82 games, that's 226 shots for Boeser, versus 272 for Matthews. 226 shots at 17% shooting is 39g. 272 at 15% is 41g. To look at the advanced stats, Matthews averages 17.41 individual corsi for attempts per 60 minutes, while Boeser averages 15.84. Matthews generates 10.7 individual shots for per 60, while Boeser generates 8.93. Matthews individual expected goals for per 60 is a whopping 1.23, while Boeser's is at .65. Matthews has enough of a volume disparity that will make it hard for Boeser to match unless he has shooting percentage that is consistently 2-3% higher.

Again, I want to make it clear that I think very highly of Boeser and expect him to continue to put a whole lot of pucks in the net. But until we see where his shooting percentage normalizes, I think it's all a fairly moot exercise. As it stands right now, Matthews is a player who is able to create more offense on an individual basis than Boeser. But as we've seen with players like Laine, an elite shooting talent can really narrow the results. Boeser might have that elite shooting talent and end up as one of the greatest American wingers of all time, but projecting who's going to score more goals between the two is impossible when one of the players is riding a hot stick and doesn't have enough sample size for real analysis.

Matthews plays with a far better linemate in Nylander during his rookie season than what Boeser has currently, ainec.

As has been pointed out to me, Boeser has played 70% of his even strength minutes this year with Bo Horvat. Can we count on your vote in the next Nylander vs (whoever) poll?

 

[n00bxQb]

Probably Matthews because he'll probably have a longer career (better overall player).

Most goals in 1 season probably goes to Boeser.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

This is really easily Matthews.

I really like Boeser, have him on my fantasy squad. Matthews will likely play longer in the league and is already a better player. Sample size for Brock is small, he may be able to keep up a high shooting percentage like Laine, but even that is unlikely, I think he scores ~40 this year which is truly remarkable, but I'm not sure if he will be able to do it year in year out by repeating his shooting percentage. Matthews is a fantastic scorer who generates chances at a much higher rate, I expect him to continue to score 40+ goals year in year out.

If Boeser can do what he has done so far this year for the rest of the season and next, I may change my mind, but 35 games isn't enough to expect him to outscore one of the best goal scorers in the league who is only 20 years old.

 

[StatisticsAddict99]

It depends, but Matthews does have an additional season on him so more than likely him.

 

[Ace of Hades]

As has been pointed out to me, Boeser has played 70% of his even strength minutes this year with Bo Horvat. Can we count on your vote in the next Nylander vs (whoever) poll?

Look at the limited sample size. Matthews has played with Nylander all year for last season when he put up his 40 G season, Boeser has been producing PPG rate without Horvat.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Look at the limited sample size. Matthews has played with Nylander all year for last season when he put up his 40 G season, Boeser has been producing PPG rate without Horvat.

if by "all year" you mean ignoring the fact that 40% of the time he played with Brown + Hyman then sure. Boeser has like 80% of his time with the Sedins or Horvat

 

[Ace of Hades]

if by "all year" you mean ignoring the fact that 40% of the time he played with Brown + Hyman then sure. Boeser has like 80% of his time with the Sedins or Horvat

We are talking even strength. Boeser is currently playing with fodders for 10 games or so. The Sedins suck at ES.

I'd like to see the stats for linemates deployment. Brown is a fantastic player and far better than anything Boeser is currently playing with.

Funny how Sedins are being hyped when they are generally talked down and weren't even top 40 forward rankings this season. Talk about selective convenience to downplay Canuck players.

 

[Regal]

I don't want to nitpick too much, but it's hard to tell me in two sentences that Boeser barely plays with the Sedins and that he is saving their seasons. But I don't really want to argue about it, it was more about making a point to the other poster. I was clearly incorrect about Boeser's primary linemates.

Matthews scored his 40g last year averaging 17:38. I made my first statements with the expectation that Boeser will continue to develop. He will get more comfortable in the league and his coach will trust him with even more minutes. But there has to be some expectation for Matthews to improve as well. I'm expecting Boeser to be an elite scorer and he will likely have a shooting percentage that is well above average. But to be completely honest, I don't expect him to be that far ahead of Matthews in terms of shooting percentage, Matthews is very much an elite shooter. Even if Boeser settles in around 2% ahead of Matthews for their careers, which I think is rather optimistic, Matthews is still a far better shot generator. In the simple stats, over their careers so far Boeser averages 2.76 shots per game (116s in 42gp) while Matthews averages 3.32 (359s in 108gp). Over 82 games, that's 226 shots for Boeser, versus 272 for Matthews. 226 shots at 17% shooting is 39g. 272 at 15% is 41g. To look at the advanced stats, Matthews averages 17.41 individual corsi for attempts per 60 minutes, while Boeser averages 15.84. Matthews generates 10.7 individual shots for per 60, while Boeser generates 8.93. Matthews individual expected goals for per 60 is a whopping 1.23, while Boeser's is at .65. Matthews has enough of a volume disparity that will make it hard for Boeser to match unless he has shooting percentage that is consistently 2-3% higher.

Again, I want to make it clear that I think very highly of Boeser and expect him to continue to put a whole lot of pucks in the net. But until we see where his shooting percentage normalizes, I think it's all a fairly moot exercise. As it stands right now, Matthews is a player who is able to create more offense on an individual basis than Boeser. But as we've seen with players like Laine, an elite shooting talent can really narrow the results. Boeser might have that elite shooting talent and end up as one of the greatest American wingers of all time, but projecting who's going to score more goals between the two is impossible when one of the players is riding a hot stick and doesn't have enough sample size for real analysis.




As has been pointed out to me, Boeser has played 70% of his even strength minutes this year with Bo Horvat. Can we count on your vote in the next Nylander vs (whoever) poll?

This is a pretty solid analysis. Everything I've seen from Boeser and just watching hockey over the years and how the best manage to score consistently leads me to believe Boeser can maintain a higher than normal shooting percentage (though not 20) on the types of shots he currently takes. He also seems to be gaining confidence and creating more on his own, which might lead to more chance generation though probably at the expense of shooting percentage. Still, I don't think anyone can know with confidence without a greater sample size.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Boeser has been very impressive, transitioning much smoother than I expected.

That said, this is Matthews and I don't think it will be particularly close.

 

[n00bxQb]

if by "all year" you mean ignoring the fact that 40% of the time he played with Brown + Hyman then sure. Boeser has like 80% of his time with the Sedins or Horvat

The Sedins most common linemates are Virtanen and Eriksson. Boeser is occasionally used with them after a penalty kill in games where Virtanen isn't playing (Eriksson plays the PK).

Boeser has scored significantly more on the powerplay since moving to the Sedins' unit. That's about the only thing you can statistically tie the three together (I guess with the extra attacker).

 

[7even]

I am...

That’s certainly an opinion.

 

[Love]

Boeser has like 80% of his time with the Sedins or Horvat

Is this some sort of knock against Boeser? Honestly someone needs to explain this argument because what I'm reading here is "OMG Boeser plays on a line with 50 point players!" Does that somehow lessen what he's done? I don't get it.

 

[Raging Bull]

But simply going to the small sample size retort is really an avoidence or tatic here in avoiding the topic. You and I know it, Kelly knows this.

AVOIDENCE

You've been asked a simple question a thousand times but seem to be avoiding it. Why do you think Matthews won't be competing with Laine and Boeser for the goal scoring title in years to come?

 

[Elias Pettersson]

This poll is actually a lot closer than I thought. Tbh I first thought it was a joke...

 

[The Winter Soldier]

You've been asked a simple question a thousand times but seem to be avoiding it. Why do you think Matthews won't be competing with Laine and Boeser for the goal scoring title in years to come?

This is not the topic of the OP is it? But if you value my opinion so much. I will offer my opinion. I think Laine and Boeser have higher ceilings as goal scorers. As mentioned, I have yet to see 2 players come into the league with quicker released, more accurate, shots with velocity than Laine and Boeser. Been following hockey for decades and I recognize elite goal scorers when I see them. Hope this answers your question. It's my opinion and I am sticking to it. The only question for me is hopefully Boeser gets to play with similar talented players so he can showcase his talents. No guarantees there.