Speculation: Matthew's happy with contract progress

[4thline]

Have a listen to what Bobby Mac thinks.

https://www.tsn.ca/radio/toronto-1050/could-a-deal-with-matthews-get-done-this-week-1.1252030

We'll see what happens.

But Bobby Mac has self reported that high school math was too much for him, had Babcock going to Buffalo, and had no clue of the Muzzin deal coming. He's speculating on whispers and the pure assumption that Matthews has his sights on a McDavid+ contract despite not earning it. It's not super high level analysis.

 

[ToneDog]

Last year I was going with $27m to sign all three.

7/9/11

Got the first one right. Let's hope I got the 2nd two right, too.

Did you have 8 or 6 year term ?

 

[ImpartialNHLfan]

eh I'll worry about that in 6yrs.

So you don't care about term? only cap hit?

 

[Menzinger]

Alas, I cannot dispute this at all. Dubas screwed up.

Dubas couldn’t force Marner or Matthews to sign when they didn’t want to - just like Lou couldn’t force Nylander to sign during the regular season.

 

[ToneDog]

We'll see what happens.

But Bobby Mac has self reported that high school math was too much for him, had Babcock going to Buffalo, and had no clue of the Muzzin deal coming. He's speculating on whispers and the pure assumption that Matthews has his sights on a McDavid+ contract despite not earning it. It's not super high level analysis.

Justin Bourne was just on Good Show and he was talking 11x5 and 12x6. Ennis or Bunkis was freaking out just like us fans. Dubas needs a win here. We should find out soon.

 

[Legion34]

Also. Are there not pecking orders in agencies??? Matthews and mcdavid are under the same umbrella

Matthews is really getting more than the crown jewel?

 

[cannucky]

It's not Marners fault this is the way crap is trending. Do you think I like it? Just last year I thought we could sign all 3 to 25mil total..... what a pipe dream now.

Again, not crapping on Nylander, but he is paid 7.5 for 2 60 point seasons. At the same age, Marner is will claim a 70 and 90-100 season..... Also, I replied to a post of 8 year contract.

Now with out producing someone at the same age by 40% + 2 extra UFA years..... what do you think it's going to cost?

Nothing against Willy at all, these are just the numbers his agents are going to use.

Exactly , and if he crack 100 he's 4th all time and if he cracks 111 he's 3rd all time so whats he worth of he breaks records held by Gilmore and Sittler ? How does that translate against Mathews ? All this hype comparing Mathews to McJesus but he's only like 60% of McJesus and this year will be lucky to finish above 60% of Marner , do we manage to actually pay him based on his actual performance ? I doubt it we're going to pay him based on comparables he's never compared favourably to , Do we pay Mitch based on his actual performance ? Probably not the guy makes everybody around him better , JVR and Bozo became stars playing half seasons with him while he spent the rest of the first two years on the 3rd and 4th lines , what would his numbers have been if he hadn't been BobCocked ?

 

[Peiskos]

6 years at 10.5 would be the dream scenario.

 

[Mr Hockey]

I wouldn't give him more than 10 AAV, he is not Mcdavid level.

 

[zeke]

So you don't care about term? only cap hit?

6yrs is a long ways away.

 

[jrgtml67]

5 yrs 11 to 11.5 6yrs 12 12.5..its the reality. That also means marner gets 5yrs 10.5 or 6 11ish he we make almost par with AM he deserves it.

 

[ImpartialNHLfan]

I wouldn't give him more than 10 AAV, he is not Mcdavid level.

I'd say he's on par with Eichel, and he should get his contract plus inflation. These $12m/5 year rumors are absurd.

 

[nuck]

5 yrs 11 to 11.5 6yrs 12 12.5..its the reality. That also means marner gets 5yrs 10.5 or 6 11ish he we make almost par with AM he deserves it.

Why don't we make him almost on par with Kucherov? I read the loss Colorado offer to Rantanen was $8M.

 

[Al14]

Well, I'm still waiting! :nervously tapping foot:

What's the holdup?

 

[diceman934]

Nylander and Marner had basically identical production and development curve at the time in the summer. Saying he paid way too much for Nylander but he should have signed Marner for 8x9 makes no sense.

Yeah right. One was on a 90 point pace over the last half of the season and in the playoffs. Plays with no fear. The other completely disappeared in physical games and was a 60 point player who disappeared. And yes we over paid Nylander as he got 7.5 per for 6 years.

 

[jrgtml67]

Why don't we make him almost on par with Kucherov? I read the loss Colorado offer to Rantanen was $8M.

Um kucherov is a winger..there's no state tax in Tampa so he makes exactly what his contract says. And that was 2yrs ago now cap has gone up every year so it's about % of cap

 

[diceman934]

why do people keep saying that?

the only caphit number that matters with willy is the $6.96.

saying $7.5 just makes you look like you're spinning.

Fact. He is getting paid 7.5m per. Look st cap friendly. The spin is the cap hit because he missed 3 months of the season. You do not come to work you do not get paid. His 7.5 m this year was prorated and spread over the term of his contract to reduce the cap hit to 6.96m.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Last year I was going with $27m to sign all three.

7/9/11

Got the first one right. Let's hope I got the 2nd two right, too.

I had 6.5-8-10.5 Pretty similar.

Willy is receiving $7.0 in actual money per year on average, and his caphit is also $7m.

saying $7.5 is just silly.

Is AAV is 7.5 over 6 years on average. I don't think it's silly at all that an agent will argue that. He only receives 7 because he sat out 25% of a year.

Again, were talking agent mode....... not rationally. I said an agent will ARGUE he gets 7.5, I still believe that.

 

[4thline]

Justin Bourne was just on Good Show and he was talking 11x5 and 12x6. Ennis or Bunkis was freaking out just like us fans. Dubas needs a win here. We should find out soon.

There are three ways of looking at things. One is like I said looking at Matthews best historical comparables (Stamkos and Toews, which puts him in the 5x9.5 range.

The second is accepting McDavid's contract as a "market rate", assuming Matthews deserves to be paid as his equal + cap inflation, then reducing money from there for shorter term. "Fair" 8 year at ~13.8, scaled down

The third has a similar result- looking at McDavid's contract as the steal it is when you compare it to Crosby/Malkin. based on those two McDavid should have gotten ~13x5. With a cap inflated 13x5 as the comparator those 11-12 x 6's look better.

The issue is that both 2 and 3 require majorly player friendly stretches in logic.

 

[diceman934]

I'll take that second bet. Never happen.

It will happen or he will not sign is my guess. Why would he sign for over a million less then Mathews?

 

[Babcocks Marner]

6 years at 10.5 would be the dream scenario.

Sure hope that isn't the "dream" scenario
At 6, I hope it's under 10.... I think it will be.

 

[diceman934]

No offence, but you have no clue what Marner or Matthews would have signed for this summer or any other time for that matter.

It is a guess about Mathews. Marner is not s guess it was reported on by many that his agent said 9m per on a 8 year deal and Dubas said it was to high!

 

[Legion34]

Fact. He is getting paid 7.5m per. Look st cap friendly. The spin is the cap hit because he missed 3 months of the season. You do not come to work you do not get paid. His 7.5 m this year was prorated and spread over the term of his contract to reduce the cap hit to 6.96m.

Huh. He got paid 41.77 over 6 years. Players get paid by the season. If he was injured or in the press box he would have got paid the same.

Lying to prove your point doesn’t help. Paying a player who was on the 4th line and scored 2 goals in 36 games 9 million a year would have been nuts last year.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

why do people keep saying that?

the only caphit number that matters with willy is the $6.96.

saying $7.5 just makes you look like you're spinning.

Arguable.

He was signed for 7.5x6. But HE chose to sit out for two months of his contract and not get paid for it, which affected the cap hit.

I just looked up articles on the Trouba and Lindholm signings. As far as I could find, they just list total money and term (which in Nylander case would be 6 years, $45 million). Nylander seems to be the exception, where I’m guessing the leafs pr team pushed really hard to focus on aav, and not total contract value.

When other agents use Nylander as a comparable, will they cite just his year 2-6 aav? Or will they cite his term/ value (6 years/$45 million)?

 

[Legion34]

It is a guess about Mathews. Marner is not s guess it was reported on by many that his agent said 9m per on a 8 year deal and Dubas said it was to high!

It was??????? That’s nuts