Why does Snow have to overpay? He has shown a history of not doing so. He usually buys low on potential production from young players rather than paying for past performance in UFA's. Moulson is what he is, he's probably not likely to improve as he heads north of 30. While the chemistry in the locker room is big, the players all know that there is a business component to the NHL. Snow is building a long term contender and the salary cap is a big consideration so I don't agree about 'going all in' and start overpaying. It's not usually about the money, it's all about term with UFA's.
People keep throwing out a 3-year deal, why would Moulson take that? This is his chance to get that big time deal that would set his family up. The extra security of a long term 5-6 year deal is not a small factor. Looking at the market, he should easily get at least 4 years and more likely 5-6. I think a 5x$6M is the range that a player with his resume would fetch on the open market.
He's an important player for this year and so I don't think he's going anywhere. He'll play out the season and hopefully help the team continue to develop. When it comes to contract talk, I think he'll price himself off the team and then he'll be traded for a 4th round pick. We've seen it happen with Snow. There's a reason why the Isles have built up their prospect depth, so Snow doesn't have to overpay for diminishing players. Unless Moulson agrees to the deal Snow wants, he's as good as gone IMO.
Sorry PW I just don't see this being the case. Moulson is in a different boat when it comes to Streit and Parenteau. Streit was aging, rapidly declining, and had ridiculous contract demands. Gving in would have essentially been giving a #6/PP specialist 5+M over 4/5 years. Parenteau was a good player, but I really believe that Strome was the reason why Garth let him walk. I think he would have liked to bring him back for one or two years(enough time to let Strome finish his development), but obviously Parenteau didn't want to do that. Not to mention the possibility of the Isles thinking maybe PAP just wasn't as good as his contract demands. At the time it was reasonable to assume that finding a 60 point RW for Tavares wouldn't be the hardest thing in the world, nor the most expensive(which they kind of proved with Boyes, who paced 60 points exactly).
Moulson, OTOH, is currently much more important to this team than either of the previous two guys. He's a consistent 30 goal guy, which is pretty rare in today's game. He's currently playing in his prime years, which is pretty important for a team trying to win now. He fills a position that isn't exactly a strength: Anders Lee would most likely be our only backup plan if he walks(outside of bringing in a UFA or trade, which could cost us more money than Moulson in the long run). After Lee, it's a whole lot of average. Who knows if Lee will end up being a top-six player. Even if he does become one, I don't see anyone being happy with him in a top-six role from day one, especially when a lot of people didn't even want Strome in a top-six role in his rookie year.
Lastly, and most importantly, Moulson's relationship with Tavares. I think you need to do whatever you can to keep your franchise player happy and loyal. The fact that Johnny will become a UFA when he's 28 or 29 scares me. Keep Matty around as long as JT wants him around, and hopefully Tavares will continue to show loyalty to our organization.
I believe Moulson would sign a 5 year/$25M contract when it's all said and done. I just don't see the downside in a deal like that. Even if you have to let A-Mac walk to make it happen, no one sees MacDonald sticking on our top-pairing going forward anyway, and we are already overflowing with defensive depth as is... I can't imagine how much depth we'll have this time next year(CdH, Mayfield, Pokka, Pedan, Pulock, Russo, Pelech... all could make serious bids next TC).