Player Discussion Matt Grzelcyk

[Sheppy]

Does that take into account post season?

 

[Over the volcano]

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Pretty amazing.

 

[Over the volcano]

Grzelcyk's statistical decline has a lot to do with the dramatic decline in the quality of forwards he plays with. He was perfectly suited to playing with that top line, just get the puck up ice and let the two best possession forwards in the NHL do their thing. The game is a lot harder for him now, but he's adjusting to it, and moving him off of the top pair helps. Have to think he's in every day once the playoffs start.

He's been fighting injuries all year too. For a guy who depends on his quickness, losing a half step or any confidence in his hands can be real tough to adjust to

 

[dafoomie]

Grzelcyk has never been a positive player in the post season, though. I can't agree with him being an every day when the playoff starts. The odd game? Probably.

Since 2017-18 he's a -19 in 63 games

McAvoy: +1
Bergeron: +10 (he was -6 last year which was a huge woof)
Marchand: +7
Pastrnak: +1

In my opinion Grzelcyk's play dropped off SIGNIFICANTLY in the post season.

I don't necessarily disagree but I'm looking at the other two left handed defensemen who could play over him, one doesn't belong in the league yet and the other is a 6/7 who doesn't compliment Carlo or Peeke all that well. A top 4 left handed D should be one of their top priorities in the offseason but for now, they have who they have.

The reason why he's had a harder time in the playoffs and a harder time this season is the same. He made the game easier for the top line and the top line made the game easier for him. This season, or in any postseason, his forwards can't dominate possession to the same degree and those minutes on the top pair get much harder. They already moved him to the 2nd pair which will help.

 

[SwayHeyKid]

So stralman is the lightnings Gryz I guess?

 

[SwayHeyKid]

is that good?

Makes you wonder why they try to upgrade him to every deadline and made him a healthy scratch to start last years playoffs.

Also you would think they would have at least had preliminary contract extension talks with such a dominant defenseman in his walk year. Or maybe they see it as benefiting from playing with a Norris caliber defenseman and the perfection line?

Forget these analytics. All I care about is how many goals go in when they're on the ice and how many they keep out. Stupid analytics.

In the playoffs it’s kinda important

 

[Sheppy]

Makes you wonder why they try to upgrade him to every deadline and made him a healthy scratch to start last years playoffs.

Also you would think they would have at least had preliminary contract extension talks with such a dominant defenseman in his walk year. Or maybe they see it as benefiting from playing with a Norris caliber defenseman and the perfection line?


In the playoffs it’s kinda important

This, and shouldn't teams be all over a player like that? Should be able to get a pretty high pick for him, no?

 

[RussellmaniaKW]

This, and shouldn't teams be all over a player like that? Should be able to get a pretty high pick for him, no?

this logic has never failed you before

 

[SwayHeyKid]

this logic has never failed you before
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What did he say was wrong? That was all true at the time. Heinen has turned in a very good season, playing with some very good players. I guess we will see in the summer how other teams view him, and I like him a lot and hope he remains a Bruin,

Also what exactly does it have to do with Gryz? Fact is Sweeney hasn't even broached the extension topic.

Regardless I am hoping this is his best play-offs ever because he should get a real shot at big minutes

 

[DarrenBanks56]

Forget these analytics. All I care about is how many goals go in when they're on the ice and how many they keep out. Stupid analytics.

gtyz can thank the 63 37 88 line for those numbers.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

gtyz can thank the 63 37 88 line for those numbers.

Yep. He’s so short we can’t possibly give him credit for his past success whatsoever. McAvoy is 6’ so we can give him credit though.

 

[DarrenBanks56]

Yep. He’s so short we can’t possibly give him credit for his past success whatsoever. McAvoy is 6’ so we can give him credit though.

mcavoy has been saving his ass since 2017

 

[NDiesel]

Yep. He’s so short we can’t possibly give him credit for his past success whatsoever. McAvoy is 6’ so we can give him credit though.

Couldn't possibly be that Mac is the much better player?

 

[Sheppy]

this logic has never failed you before
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And he was, he’s been solid for the Bruins this year. Said that several times.

Yep. He’s so short we can’t possibly give him credit for his past success whatsoever. McAvoy is 6’ so we can give him credit though.

Do those numbers you posted include post season?

 

[SwayHeyKid]

mcavoy has been saving his ass since 2017

He’s also on the list twice with chara as well

No issues with regular season Gryz but why can’t people just admit the brass has had zero faith in him to be a top pair when the game matter and he’s just not very good in the playoffs regardless of what the advanced stats say he “should” be doing Over the past ten years or whatever he is a -19. Next worse is a -6. Guessing Gryz has got most of his minuses going to the bench? Come on

 

[Sheppy]

I'm still waiting for confirmation if those "elite" numbers include the post season, which is where most debates around Grzelcyk start.

 

[False Start]

Who, besides Lindholm, is the most "ideal" LHD partner for Charlie McAvoy.

Great question right?

 

[Over the volcano]

I'm still waiting for confirmation if those "elite" numbers include the post season, which is where most debates around Grzelcyk start.

Not sure how to get em all. But
2020-21 playoffs his corsi was 60% Fenwick was 61% on ice expected goals was 58%
2019-20 corsi was 56% Fenwick %57, on ice expected goals was 60%
2018-19 corsi was 54% Fenwick 54% expected goals 58%

That's going by moneypuck.com - I can't figure how to get results for players with under 100min of ice time, so it doesn't bring up his playoffs since 2021

 

[NDiesel]

I'm still waiting for confirmation if those "elite" numbers include the post season, which is where most debates around Grzelcyk start.

I'd also like to see those same stats with Mac away from Gryz and visa versa. Think it's pretty obvious seeing Mac on the list twice that he's an elite player either way, and probably propping Gryz up quite a bit

 

[Over the volcano]

I'd also like to see those same stats with Mac away from Gryz and visa versa. Think it's pretty obvious seeing Mac on the list twice that he's an elite player either way, and probably propping Gryz up quite a bit

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

 

[NDiesel]

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

Appreciated...Gryz takes a big hit away from Mac in actual GF/GA...the expected numbers are great but my guess is the two never line up because Gryz provides such little offense himself and needs a stronger partner beside him

 

[Sheppy]

Those "expected" numbers for Grzelcyk didn't meet actual expectations.

2 goals in his last 78 games.

 

[NDiesel]

Those "expected" numbers for Grzelcyk didn't meet actual expectations.

And at some point all the great xGF and xGA means absolutely nothing when they aren't turning into actual on ice production...13 GF and 24 GA without Mac shows me a lot

 

[Sheppy]

And at some point all the great xGF and xGA means absolutely nothing when they aren't turning into actual on ice production...13 GF and 24 GA without Mac shows me a lot

Yep. If we're basing expected GF are we allowed to critique him for what seems to be no offensive ability? I mean, we're expecting it, right?

 

[Over the volcano]

Appreciated...Gryz takes a big hit away from Mac in actual GF/GA...the expected numbers are great but my guess is the two never line up because Gryz provides such little offense himself and needs a stronger partner beside him

It is interesting though that Mac does better with Gryz than he does with everyone else too though, but they were also getting bigger offensive zone starts together than apart. Gryz down to 43% away from MacAvoy