Player Discussion Matt Grzelcyk

[NDiesel]

It is interesting though that Mac does better with Gryz than he does with everyone else too though.

Well as a whole yes they do compliment each other it seems, if you dig deeper the last couple years he's on another level with Lindholm...the problem is to play those two together you have to find someone for Gryz to click with and he has struggled at times with Carlo and other 3rd pair guys who can't pick up the slack offensively.

 

[Over the volcano]

Well as a whole yes they do compliment each other it seems, if you dig deeper the last couple years he's on another level with Lindholm...the problem is to play those two together you have to find someone for Gryz to click with and he has struggled at times with Carlo and other 3rd pair guys who can't pick up the slack offensively.

Not a huge sample size - but Lindholm and MacAvoy's numbers look much better apart than together

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

 

[Over the volcano]

Sorry, last one.


Without Mac and Lindholm - goalies had an 80% save percentage with Grzelyck on the ice. The other two were at 94% and 93%. How much of that is bad luck and how much is his fault I don't know, but that's pretty huge.

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Sorry, last one.

with/without Mac Grz and Lindholm
without Mac and Lindholm - goalies had an 80% save percentage with Grzelyck on the ice. How much of that is bad luck and how much is his fault I don't know, but that's pretty huge.

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

To further your point - Grizz’ career playoff PDO (on ice team shooting% + on ice team save%) is 96.3. Not going to go deep into PDO again, but it’s the closest proxy to “luck” that there is. Google it if anyone wants to understand it.

Only 5 players who have played 1000 minutes the past two years have a worse PDO.

It’s probably just because he’s short though.

 

[Sheppy]

Perfect, so the Bruins should re-sign him for 6 years at 6.5M

 

[Over the volcano]

Perfect, so the Bruins should re-sign him for 6 years at 6.5M

Yuh that's what folks are saying

 

[NDiesel]

To further your point - Grizz’ career playoff PDO (on ice team shooting% + on ice team save%) is 96.3. Not going to go deep into PDO again, but it’s the closest proxy to “luck” that there is. Google it if anyone wants to understand it.

Only 5 players who have played 1000 minutes the past two years have a worse PDO.

It’s probably just because he’s short though.

Who are the 5 players that have worse PDO?

I think logically his "luck" can be explained by the fact that he brings down the on ice shooting % because he himself is shooting at 6.5% in his playoff career or that he allows higher danger chances in the playoffs which are likely to bring down the on ice save % as well.

Would love an actual dive into why you think the numbers are what they are instead of "lol you hate him because he's short"

There's a reason his team seems to dominate the expected stats and then the production never back it up, given how many playoff games he's played now I'm not sure how you can say it's just bad luck, and I'm interested in hearing why besides luck....why isn't anyone else getting as unlucky as him?

 

[Sheppy]

Yuh that's what folks are saying

I mean, they should be? No?

Guy is elite as f***.

 

[Over the volcano]

Who are the 5 players that have worse PDO?

I think logically his "luck" can be explained by the fact that he brings down the on ice shooting % because he himself is shooting at 6.5% in his playoff career or that he allows higher danger chances in the playoffs which are likely to bring down the on ice save % as well.

Would love an actual dive into why you think the numbers are what they are instead of "lol you hate him because he's short"

There's a reason his team seems to dominate the expected stats and the actual stats never back it up, given how many playoff games he's played now I'm not sure how you can say it's luck.

It's interesting his high danger chance % without Lindholm or MacAvoy is 49% which isn't that far off from the other two on their own 53% and 55% respectively. He also saw the most defensive zone draws out of the three of them.

 

[NDiesel]

Yuh that's what folks are saying

Well if any argument against him playing poor is luck and expected stats then why isn't that a fair statement? He should command a boatload given how dominant the team is with him out there, right?

 

[Over the volcano]

Well if any argument against him playing poor is luck and expected stats then why isn't that a fair statement? He should command a boatload given how dominant the team is with him out there, right?

I mean I don't know. Think he's lost a step this year to injury or just in general. They also have Lorhei beating down the door so I don't see them paying much to keep him in the fold.

Wonder what the rest of the league thinks of him though.

 

[NDiesel]

I mean I don't know. Think he's lost a step this year to injury or just in general. They also have Lorhei beating down the door so I don't see them paying much to keep him in the fold.

Wonder what the rest of the league thinks of him though.

I'll be very curious as well to see what he gets in UFA if he isn't kept.

 

[Over the volcano]

I'll be very curious as well to see what he gets in UFA if he isn't kept.

Yeah, maybe he gets a Clifton deal?

But who knows, no one wanted Heinen and he's our #1 LW .

 

[22Brad Park]

I mean I don't know. Think he's lost a step this year to injury or just in general. They also have Lorhei beating down the door so I don't see them paying much to keep him in the fold.

Wonder what the rest of the league thinks of him though.

 

[SwayHeyKid]

Who are the 5 players that have worse PDO?

I think logically his "luck" can be explained by the fact that he brings down the on ice shooting % because he himself is shooting at 6.5% in his playoff career or that he allows higher danger chances in the playoffs which are likely to bring down the on ice save % as well.

Would love an actual dive into why you think the numbers are what they are instead of "lol you hate him because he's short"

There's a reason his team seems to dominate the expected stats and then the production never back it up, given how many playoff games he's played now I'm not sure how you can say it's just bad luck, and I'm interested in hearing why besides luck....why isn't anyone else getting as unlucky as him?

Why would he do that? He would have to post an opinion on something other than his normal schtick

I mean expected stats are what they are. The bruins were expected to beat the Blues. The Bruins were expected to win round 1 last year. Who really cares about a guy who was expected to be more successful but wasn’t?

 

[SwayHeyKid]

Well if any argument against him playing poor is luck and expected stats then why isn't that a fair statement? He should command a boatload given how dominant the team is with him out there, right?

You would think. If nothing else you would think Sweeney would actually have had one conversation about re upping him, short or not

 

[Sheppy]

McDavid, 2 1sts for Grzelcyk

 

[Babajingo]

I mean, they should be? No?

Guy is elite as f***.

And he's a local kid.

He's just as good as Makar or Hughes. Charlie is weighing him down.

 

[Over the volcano]

And he's a local kid.

He's just as good as Makar or Hughes. Charlie is weighing him down.

Where's this sarcastic nonsense coming from?

 

[Gonzothe7thDman]

Where's this sarcastic nonsense coming from?

Because some folks don’t understand nuance. You’re all in on one extreme or the other.

 

[22Brad Park]

Because some folks don’t understand nuance. You’re all in on one extreme or the other.

Nuance is a subtle difference in expression .What he said is mocking him and using best D men to do it.Listen I know Grizz is not your prototypical D man cause he is small,heck I like big D men & on record saying as much,but this guy has to have some skill to play at this level this long.I assume his team mates love him in that room as well.He is a UFA to be so I am not going to get all bent about it now.

 

[Over the volcano]

Nuance is a subtle difference in expression .What he said is mocking him and using best D men to do it.Listen I know Grizz is not your prototypical D man cause he is small,heck I like big D men & on record saying as much,but this guy has to have some skill to play at this level this long.I assume his team mates love him in that room as well.He is a UFA to be so I am not going to get all bent about it now.

Yeah, after going in on the numbers he's a real good defenseman who got unlucky when it mattered most come playoff time. It's not an excuse, because luck counts too. He's also had an off year this season.

They probably won't bring him back with Lorhei looking to step in, but I wish him well this year and going forward.

 

[RussellmaniaKW]

Those "expected" numbers for Grzelcyk didn't meet actual expectations.

2 goals in his last 78 games.

his individual expected goals for this season is 2.2. seems remarkably accurate to me.

but then you're conflating "on ice expected goal differential" with individual expected goals because after years of having opinions about this shit you still can't be bothered to spend the 10 minutes it would take to actually understand what you're talking about

 

[Sheppy]

his individual expected goals for this season is 2.2. seems remarkably accurate to me.

but then you're conflating "on ice expected goal differential" with individual expected goals because after years of having opinions about this shit you still can't be bothered to spend the 10 minutes it would take to actually understand what you're talking about

I’m saying he’s dog shit offensively and is propped up by his playing partner.

 

[PB37]

his individual expected goals for this season is 2.2. seems remarkably accurate to me.

but then you're conflating "on ice expected goal differential" with individual expected goals because after years of having opinions about this shit you still can't be bothered to spend the 10 minutes it would take to actually understand what you're talking about

Are you surprised?