Value of: Matt Duchene to New Jersey

[goonybird]

Some recent cup finalists have had anywhere from poor top line Cs to 'decent'. Don't think many players in particular are considered "likely" cup champs.

 

[topshelf15]

Ottawa cant trade this guy,after what we paid for him ..It would be far more likely a contract extension was already discussed before a small budget team would have taken this big a risk

 

[Jared Dunn]

He wants to be in Ottawa long term and I think he will be. But not a bad proposal at all

We'll see if that idea remains as the year goes on. Not to hit the Sens when they're down as is but, Duchene doesn't exactly seem like a trooper

 

[Castle8130]

Holy hyperbole. You’d think you were describing McDavid. And +/-. LOL. Neither are guys likely to #1C a team to a cup.

After Nico hischiers rookie season, he had 52 points playing like a true two-way center. He was also playing on the top line for his team that made the playoffs. Nico has also not filled out his frame yet. I think its is more likely than not that Nico becomes a number 1 center sometime in the next 5 years. Nico will also develop more strength on his shot to get him actual pp time.

 

[tucker3434]

After Nico hischiers rookie season, he had 52 points playing like a true two-way center. He was also playing on the top line for his team that made the playoffs. Nico has also not filled out his frame yet. I think its is more likely than not that Nico becomes a number 1 center sometime in the next 5 years. Nico will also develop more strength on his shot to get him actual pp time.

Duchene had 55 points his rookie season.

It just doesn’t always work out that way.

 

[TkachukNorris79]

Do you have any direct quotes on this or is this more of a narrative to make distressed Ott fans feel better?

About 2 minutes in. I think he wants to be here. Sounds like it but who knows, that was in April.

 

[Zippy316]

Zacha + Severson is likely what it takes to get the job done with an extension.

Both those guys are cost-controlled, young, and have room for growth which I could see Ottawa being interested in.

The biggest problem there is the Devils can't afford to move on from Severson at the moment.

 

[Castle8130]

Duchene had 55 points his rookie season.

It just doesn’t always work out that way.

Nico had 46 ES regular season points in his rookie season
Nico had a +10 in his rookie regular season
Nico had a takeaway/giveaway ratio of 2.15
Nico had a corsi% of 50.1

Duchene had 34 ES regular season points in his rookie season
Duchene was a +1 in his rookie regular season
Duchene had a takeaway/giveaway ratio of 1.64
Duchene had a corsi% of 46.6

Looks to me like Duchenes numbers were inflated due to him getting a lot of pp action.

 

[Blender]

Duchene had 55 points his rookie season.

It just doesn’t always work out that way.

Duchene had 21 power play points and 33 even strength points. Hischier had 6 power play points and 46 even strength points. 5on5, which is the best measure of future success, Hischier had a top tier rookie season. His power play time and production was really low, which won't be the case forever.

 

[Castle8130]

About 2 minutes in. I think he wants to be here. Sounds like it but who knows, that was in April.

I don't think he does. When he was asked about getting an extension done this summer, he seemed to be tripped up in the words that he wanted to say. A lot of stuff said about the franchise that players are in, is very hard to determine if it's the truth or not. Duchene wants to be on a contending team and if Ottawa isn't again this year, he will probably leave to a good team.

Remember that the shaky answers he is giving to the media are similar to those that Karlsson and Tavares gave to the media.

 

[Clamshells]

Nico had 46 ES regular season points in his rookie season
Nico had a +10 in his rookie regular season
Nico had a takeaway/giveaway ratio of 2.15
Nico had a corsi% of 50.1

Duchene had 34 ES regular season points in his rookie season
Duchene was a +1 in his rookie regular season
Duchene had a takeaway/giveaway ratio of 1.64
Duchene had a corsi% of 46.6

Looks to me like Duchenes numbers were inflated due to him getting a lot of pp action.

2009 and 2017 are not that simple to compare in stats imo.

2009 saw Tavares, Benn, and Duchene all have rookie years, with none of them over 34 ES points.
2017 saw 8 rookies with 34 or more ES points.

I could make the argument that Nico's stats are inflated due to the high scoring expansion year. (See: 1992.)

 

[Blender]

2009 and 2017 are not that simple to compare in stats imo.

2009 saw Tavares, Benn, and Duchene all have rookie years, with none of them over 34 ES points.
2017 saw 8 rookies with 34 or more ES points.

I could make the argument that Nico's stats are inflated due to the high scoring expansion year. (See: 1992.)

So make the argument that 2017-2018 was higher scoring, especially even strength.

 

[Eltuna]

Duchene had 21 power play points and 33 even strength points. Hischier had 6 power play points and 46 even strength points. 5on5, which is the best measure of future success, Hischier had a top tier rookie season. His power play time and production was really low, which won't be the case forever.

He also played almost entirely at even strength with the Hart trophy winner. Since the 2005 lockout, all of the 1st overall pick forwards except for Stamkos had better rookie ppg (even Yakapov) and none of them had a Hart trophy winner on their wings. This was also a year where league scoring increased as a whole. He had a good rookie season but I don’t know if I’d call it top tier, it’s definitely extremely similar to what Duchene did but I’d argue Duchene was better.

 

[Zenos]

Duchene had 55 points his rookie season.

It just doesn’t always work out that way.

No kidding. I was just thinking about another borderline 1C/2C centre who notched 52 points in his rookie campaign: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

 

[Sherwood71]

https://thehockeywriters.com/devils-nico-hischier-rookie-season/

Interesting article in my opinion. Kid played through a wrist injury, had 46 even strength points, amazing P/60 and P1/60, played against top opposition, and needs to bulk up a fair bit. If he had the same power play points as Duchene, he would have finished the year at 67 points. Very solid defensively, can create quality chances (his High Danger Scoring Chances actually went up when he played without Hall), and can get it done at even strength. Once he puts on muscle, gets power play time, and becomes further assimilated to professional/North American play, I can easily see him putting up 70+ points without a problem while playing stalwart defense. I see him leveling out as a perennial PPG player with Selke caliber defense; hence the Datsyuk, Bergeron, and Kopitar comparisons. I think Kopitar/Bergeron is probably the best comparison.

EDIT: In my opinion, the comment about Yakupov isn't exactly a quality one because Hischier didn't get many PPP or a lot of time on the top unit, and he also placed a focus on being a 200-foot player. Not many rookies place a high importance on that aspect in my opinion.

Another EDIT (Sorry I'm forgetful sometimes): Since many people won't read the article, Hischier's stats didn't drop that much away from Hall. He was able to still sustain a high level of play without Hall. The relationship was mutually beneficial. Obviously Hischer isn't the main reason Hall had a career year, but it is safe to say that it wasn't a negligible effect.

 

[Blender]

He also played almost entirely at even strength with the Hart trophy winner. Since the 2005 lockout, all of the 1st overall pick forwards except for Stamkos had better rookie ppg (even Yakapov) and none of them had a Hart trophy winner on their wings. This was also a year where league scoring increased as a whole. He had a good rookie season but I don’t know if I’d call it top tier, it’s definitely extremely similar to what Duchene did but I’d argue Duchene was better.

Hischier didn't play the power play with Hall, he played on our embarrassing 2nd unit. Based on the criteria of rookies you used, only Crosby, Matthews, and MacKinnon outscored Hischier at even strength. Laine also did at 18, McDavid would have if he played all season.

Also, demonstrate that this was a higher scoring year at even strength. I haven't seen anyone post those stats yet.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

McLeod
Anderson
Blackwood
2020 1st

For

Duchene
Lajoie

 

[tucker3434]

Duchene had 21 power play points and 33 even strength points. Hischier had 6 power play points and 46 even strength points. 5on5, which is the best measure of future success, Hischier had a top tier rookie season. His power play time and production was really low, which won't be the case forever.

I don’t actually care who had the better rookie year, just wanted to use a simple stat to show how ridiculous that guys statement was.

Until Hischier proves otherwise he’s in the same tier as Duchene.

 

[Eltuna]

Hischier didn't play the power play with Hall, he played on our embarrassing 2nd unit. Based on the criteria of rookies you used, only Crosby, Matthews, and MacKinnon outscored Hischier at even strength. Laine also did at 18, McDavid would have if he played all season.

Also, demonstrate that this was a higher scoring year at even strength. I haven't seen anyone post those stats yet.

Right, but I’m saying that’s because he played almost entirely with the Hart trophy winner. His GF% dropped 11 percent when away from Hall at even strength. His 52 points weren’t awful by any means but it wasn’t super impressive either. If a 1st overall pick scored less than 50 points while he was stapled to a 93 point Hart trophy winner it would be a disappointment, scoring in the low 50’s isn’t exceptional, it’s expected. Would you agree that if not for Hall he probably would have been around 40-45 points?

 

[Icebreakers]

Easiest no ever. You’re not getting a top-4 d and a first for a 2c

I'm not gonna say you should do the deal but

A top 4 D plus a middle to late first for an above average 2 C seems fair value wise.

Like you are getting the best player in the deal without dispute.


Not like Severson has first pairing potential either.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I'm not gonna say you should do the deal but

A top 4 D plus a middle to late first for an above average 2 C seems fair value wise.

Like you are getting the best player in the deal without dispute.


Not like Severson has first pairing potential either.

I like how you conveniently left Zacha out

 

[njdevils19]

Holy hyperbole. You’d think you were describing McDavid. And +/-. LOL. Neither are guys likely to #1C a team to a cup.

Calls out hyperbole. Finishes post with his own hyperbole.

 

[tucker3434]

Calls out hyperbole. Finishes post with his own hyperbole.

I was actually overly conservative as most centers won’t be a 1C on a cup winner. And it didn’t even say it couldn’t happen. I said it was unlikely. That’s about as safe a statement as one could make.

 

[Icebreakers]

I like how you conveniently left Zacha out

Well all he said was

Its a Trap said: ↑

Easiest no ever. You’re not getting a top-4 d and a first for a 2c

So thats what i was replying to.​

 

[Blender]

So I ran the numbers on the 2009-2010 and 2017-2018 seasons, and the average 5on5 GF/60 was 2.34 in 09-10, and 2.39 in 17-18. Or a 2% increase. A 2% decrease to Hischier's even strength numbers would put him at 45 points instead of 46.

As I've posted in earlier threads as well. People just look at his total points and assume he wasn't that great, but his terrible power play production is the only reason he didn't have a 65+ point rookie season.

Last 10 forwards selected 1OA and their points per game in the NHL in their D+1 season:

Nico Hischier - 0.62
Auston Matthews - 0.84
Connor McDavid - 1.07
Nathan MacKinnon - 0.77
Nail Yakupov - 0.65
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - 0.84
Taylor Hall - 0.65
John Tavares - 0.66
Steven Stamkos - 0.58
Patrick Kane - 0.88

Same players, 5on5 points per 60 minutes:

Nico Hischier - 2.33
Auston Matthews - 2.12
Connor McDavid - 2.69
Nathan MacKinnon - 2.07
Nail Yakupov - 2.14
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - 1.95
Taylor Hall - 1.51
John Tavares - 1.32
Steven Stamkos - 1.76
Patrick Kane - 2.26

Right, but I’m saying that’s because he played almost entirely with the Hart trophy winner. His GF% dropped 11 percent when away from Hall at even strength. His 52 points weren’t awful by any means but it wasn’t super impressive either. If a 1st overall pick scored less than 50 points while he was stapled to a 93 point Hart trophy winner it would be a disappointment, scoring in the low 50’s isn’t exceptional, it’s expected. Would you agree that if not for Hall he probably would have been around 40-45 points?

No I don't agree and it's a ridiculous hypothetical anyways since you can do that for every player in the league. While Hall clearly had an incredible season and was by far the best player on our team, he still benefited from playing with Hischier. Hall had 55 even strength points this year to Hischier's 46, it's not as if Hischier road Hall's coattails and picked up a bunch of garbage points, they made each other better.

So while that other guys post was surely ridiculous hyperbole, it's also ridiculous to say that Hischier will definitely not be better than Duchene going forward or claim that Duchene is in a higher tier of player.