Value of: Matt Duchene to New Jersey

[njdevils19]

There are times where we all, regardless of team, are biased towards seeing our players every day. There are other times where it helps us see stuff other fans won't until they get more exposure. I think Hischier will be the latter.

As for this hypothetical, based off Taylor Hall's quotes during and after the season, it might take a hostage situation to get him to accept Nico not being his centerman next year.

 

[Dzonna]

I don’t think devils should chance atm. Prob just relax and stick to the plan. They did well this year... might not make the playoffs again but how good will the be if they get a few top ten picks in a row.

 

[Jarey Curry]

Rather offtopic but I dont really blame Duchene for leaving Col. He probably thought at the end of that season "It cannot get worse than this" He did the right decision for himself, but boy has he been misfortunate. No one saw these problems coming in Ottawa.

 

[Its a Trap]

I'm not gonna say you should do the deal but

A top 4 D plus a middle to late first for an above average 2 C seems fair value wise.

Like you are getting the best player in the deal without dispute.


Not like Severson has first pairing potential either.

Makes it even worse when I remember Zach’s was included.

Oh, has our 23 year old dman plateau’d already? Interesting.

 

[tucker3434]

So I ran the numbers on the 2009-2010 and 2017-2018 seasons, and the average 5on5 GF/60 was 2.34 in 09-10, and 2.39 in 17-18. Or a 2% increase. A 2% decrease to Hischier's even strength numbers would put him at 45 points instead of 46.

As I've posted in earlier threads as well. People just look at his total points and assume he wasn't that great, but his terrible power play production is the only reason he didn't have a 65+ point rookie season.




No I don't agree and it's a ridiculous hypothetical anyways since you can do that for every player in the league. While Hall clearly had an incredible season and was by far the best player on our team, he still benefited from playing with Hischier. Hall had 55 even strength points this year to Hischier's 46, it's not as if Hischier road Hall's coattails and picked up a bunch of garbage points, they made each other better.

So while that other guys post was surely ridiculous hyperbole, it's also ridiculous to say that Hischier will definitely not be better than Duchene going forward or claim that Duchene is in a higher tier of player.

I don’t think what you’re doing is any different than what he’s doing but in the opposite direction.

I also don’t think that 5v5 p/60 listing is helping your cause. Tavares is at the bottom, ended up great. Yak near the top, out of the league in 6 years. There doesn’t seem to be much of any correlation there.

 

[Icebreakers]

Makes it even worse when I remember Zach’s was included.

Oh, has our 23 year old dman plateau’d already? Interesting.

He hasnt plateaued but lets be real hes not likely to be a first pairing guy. Him plus a late first would be fair. Matt Duchene isnt Brandon Sutter lmao. Just bc he played for a tire fire in Ottawa doesnt mean hes worthless. The original post we were talking about without Zacha. But even then Zacha doesnt have much value anyways.

 

[Its a Trap]

He hasnt plateaued but lets be real hes not likely to be a first pairing guy. Him plus a late first would be fair. Matt Duchene isnt Brandon Sutter lmao. Just bc he played for a tire fire in Ottawa doesnt mean hes worthless. The original post we were talking about without Zacha. But even then Zacha doesnt have much value anyways.

Riiiiiiiiight... so you’re saying a 23 year old d, 21 year old c and a first is a fair offer for a 27/28 year old #2. That’s a hang up. Easily.

 

[Icebreakers]

Riiiiiiiiight... so you’re saying a 23 year old d, 21 year old c and a first is a fair offer for a 27/28 year old #2. That’s a hang up. Easily.

Jesus fking christ lmao. I said the original offer was without Zacha, you could probably add something to balance that in if Zacha was included.

Lets not pretend that Severson is worth close to Duchene. That first if you acquired Duchene would be in the later rounds and it would be Severson plus a late first for Duchene. Duchene can be a low #1, hes not just a #2.

I just dont see how Severson + a late first for Duchene is "bad" value for the Devils , its the same with Severson + Zacha + late first for Duchene + add to balance it (Bernard Docker or a 2nd for example).

 

[Patagonia]

Riiiiiiiiight... so you’re saying a 23 year old d, 21 year old c and a first is a fair offer for a 27/28 year old #2. That’s a hang up. Easily.

This would be the exact value for Duchene, would he be worth the risk? No!

Duchene has a year remaining and likely headed to a team closer to challenging for the Cup. PIT, PHI & NSH are possible locations. NJD can simply wait and attempt to sign when he becomes a UFA. There is no urgency is making this trade when they're still a few seasons from competing.

 

[Billdo]

McLeod
Anderson
Blackwood
2020 1st

For

Duchene
Lajoie

 

[Tretyak 20]

Pretty sure Duchene will be the 1C at least for a couple years.

I'm not.

 

[Missionhockey]

Uh...the fact that he doesn’t put up points equivalent to a #1c? Or are we going to argue intangibles and defense make up for not being able to hit even 60 points.

It does for Bergeron. Not saying Hischier is Bergeron but it does.

 

[Missionhockey]

So I ran the numbers on the 2009-2010 and 2017-2018 seasons, and the average 5on5 GF/60 was 2.34 in 09-10, and 2.39 in 17-18. Or a 2% increase. A 2% decrease to Hischier's even strength numbers would put him at 45 points instead of 46.

As I've posted in earlier threads as well. People just look at his total points and assume he wasn't that great, but his terrible power play production is the only reason he didn't have a 65+ point rookie season.




No I don't agree and it's a ridiculous hypothetical anyways since you can do that for every player in the league. While Hall clearly had an incredible season and was by far the best player on our team, he still benefited from playing with Hischier. Hall had 55 even strength points this year to Hischier's 46, it's not as if Hischier road Hall's coattails and picked up a bunch of garbage points, they made each other better.

So while that other guys post was surely ridiculous hyperbole, it's also ridiculous to say that Hischier will definitely not be better than Duchene going forward or claim that Duchene is in a higher tier of player.

I would also argue that Taylor Hall isn't exactly a perrenial Hart Trophy contender. The year before he had 53 points. Then he gets a player of Hischier's caliber covering his butt in the defensive end while also having the ability to keep up offensively and suddenly he's a 90 point player. I don't think that's a coincidence.