Proposal: Matheson away from Florida

[TheImpatientPanther]

Matheson has so little value with the high salary and lengthy term. I doubt those teams would have any interest. FL needs to retain (doubtful) or provide enough incentive to a team with Cap Space to absorb the full deal. I believe COL can easily absorb the full cap hit and/or possibly re-trade with retention.

Matheson
2020-1st
2020-2nd
2021-1st

for

Zadorov

$3.3 million is not high for 8-9 goal/25pt average with 30+pt potential.
There won't be a huge lineup for him but 3-4 teams may be interested.

Our new GMs first move is not going to be to trade 12th overall, another 1st and a 2nd to move him. It makes no sense.
He has more value at $3.3 million than Lucic or Zaitsev, both had similar term left.
COL can try their luck at drafting in the mid 20s.

Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't that a prorated fraction of the $2.5m cap hit? The actual salary involved would have been something like a one-time $750k payment, and done after the team had already ice the roster it planned to for the year and happened to have leftover cap.

Yes I meant to type "part of" the $2.5 million. Thought it was 750k but its actually closer to $1.1 million.
This may further prove my point thay 750k retention x 5 years to a middle team wont cost multiple 2nds even in a flat cap world.
Maybe a couple 3rds and 4ths? Even if its one 2nd + one 3rd, FLA could offer one of their 2020 3rds and a 2022 2nd.

 

[Patagonia]

$3.3 million is not high for 8-9 goal/25pt average with 30+pt potential.
There won't be a huge lineup for him but 3-4 teams may be interested.

Our new GMs first move is not going to be to trade 12th overall, another 1st and a 2nd to move him. It makes no sense.
He has more value at $3.3 million than Lucic or Zaitsev, both had similar term left.
COL can try their luck at drafting in the mid 20s.





Yes I meant to type "part of" the $2.5 million. Thought it was 750k but its actually closer to $1.1 million.
This may further prove my point thay 750k retention x 5 years to a middle team wont cost multiple 2nds even in a flat cap world.
Maybe a couple 3rds and 4ths? Even if its one 2nd + one 3rd, FLA could offer one of their 2020 3rds and a 2022 2nd.

Retention of nearly 1/3 improves the trade value, but there is still too much term for team to take that risk. FL could increase the retention, but this erodes the reason for trading was to cut salaries.

 

[bernmeister]

Yep. It seems that both fan bases see it as value-added. Any idea what the plus would be?

As an economist , I like the idea of the conditional 2nd/3rd going to Nashville to counteract the risk that Turris is just buried behind better talent/bad reputation. Thoughts?

Plus, if we re-sign Hoffman (which I think is likely if we can make this trade), I think a line of Connolly-Turris-Hoffman could re-ignite Turris

crushed now but pls remind me to pm/convo you re: bold

 

[bernmeister]

I'd be open to pay DET to retain some of Matheson or Yandle's deal.

If Yandle, this off-season, what's the cost of 600-800k for 3 years
If Matheson, next off-season, what's the cost of 600-700k retention for 5 years?
Then FLA retains a portion of one of them and some other team take them at a decently lowered caphit.

Zaitsev got moved with no retention, similar deal and term.
Look above this post, I'd try and do a 3 way deal where two teams (FLA and middle team) each retain on one of Yandle or Matheson, FLA pays middle team some draft capital (3rds/4ths)
Matheson around $3.5 million (averages 8-9 goals/25 pts with no PP time) is easier to take on for a team like SEA/OTT/DET.
He has risk in term but still has potential to be a decent offensive defenseman with PP time.

I dont think FLA will retain $1.5 mil for 6 years, they would retain half of that and get another team to retain the other half of the $1.5 mil.

We'd have to pay the middle team some draft capital as well so not all the 2nds would go to NYR.
Again, would prefer to retain on Yandle and burn another year on Mathesons deal.

I'm not following you, as in my offer I was guided in part by below...



I see this is 5 years not 6 you suggest FL holding 1 more yr, but if NY took the extra year reasonable, why not go there?
I basically gave you equiv of what you wanted by saying take expiring Smith for 1 yr, so you are paying team to take on Math for 5.

Also, you said specif, "Matheson @ $3.2 to 3.5 million is easier to take".
My number of 3.3 is spot on.

As to getting one team to eat part of that 1.5 and another an additional part, that is not merely unwieldy, it is unlikely.

Remember, Math is 6 years. Repeat 6 years.
Okay, you say --- at cost to you, hold him another year.
That is still 5 years.
5 long years.
No one is gonna take modest compensation for a piece when it is that much long term.

As you like, but honestly, I doubt you get a better deal than mine given his term.

always a pleasure TIP
peace out

Zaitsev and Lucic were moved and they were considered some of the worst deals in the NHL.

5 years at $3.3 million, I think a team
would bite on him as he produces offensively and should touch 30-35pts with 2nd PP unit time.

We've tried many times to move Matheson and failed to do so, no harm and no foul.
Yandle is my guy to move for now.
All the best Bern.

This is what I don't understand.
I'll take him at 3.3, and I take him cheap, but ya still gotta pay me and recognize it would be 6 yrs if we did that now.
And whether it is 5 or 6, it is signif enuf term that that's what has to go down to get out from under.
Were he 2-3 years, that is easier to swallow, but 5 or 6 is still very, very tough.

I understand whatever that comes out to/w/w'out Strome or someone else in the equation, that package has to work for you as well.

As to Yandle, totally can't help you there, but agree, whatever he brings on the ice, you need the cap space and he is the first you wanna look at moving.
Thankfully he is only 3 more seasons.

all best
gotta run

You have FLA eating $1.5 million and then adding THREE 2nd's, assuming one for Strome, Lias worth a 2nd I guess?
Lias isn't much of interest for me, take him out, we have a similar project in Borgstrom already.
Strome would be of interest depending on his ask on next contract.
We've spoke about both of FLA's 2020 3rd's (COL + FLA) + 2021 2nd for Strome.

Zaitsev was moved at full caphit ($4.5 mil) x 6 years + Connor Brown ($2.1 mil) x 2 years + Carcone's signing rights
for
Ceci's signing rights + 2020 3rd (COL's) + Harpur (750k) x 2 years + Luchuk (759k) x 2 years

Lucic was moved/retained 750k, ($5,25 mil) x 5 years + 2020 conditional 3rd (EDM picks 2020 or 2021)
for
Neal ($5.75 mil) x 4 years

Kyle Dubas retained $2.5 million on Lehner, he got a 5th round pick as example of middle team buying a pick for retention.
Lehner is a UFA but 750k shouldn't cost more than a 5th/6th rounder, typically the price for a league minimum guy. Now multiply 5 years of 750k if it's Matheson which = $3.75 mil, so what does that cost?

I think Matheson has value at $3.3 million, not a cap dump. 8-9 goals and 25pts on average pace for that money seems about fair no?
A team like DET, SEA or NJ would have some interest and we would eat a short term cap dump + mid pick in return. They take risk on term but may reap some rewards at that retained value.

Hi TIP, been meaning to extend courtesy of reply but crushed and have to cut this short.

I think the bottom line where we agree to disagree is twofold.

First it's about expectations on Math productivity.
You think he's a good gamble to still start to show production at 3-3.5.
I disagree.
He's a bad gamble unless/until he demonstrates something besides speed skating.

Second, his contract can be cut thru another team and retained again, for a broker's fee.
That's not impossible, but it is very difficult and will cost due to Math's 6 years, which is dominant consideration.

I remember looking at something the Wild doing this and them sending you Zuc. Of course, that is an oversimplification of a complex deal involving 3 teams, FL-MIN-NY.
In the end it was concluded we could not have consensus on the whole deal, but this part of it was not a given, either.

Good luck w/this, sincerely.

 

[violaswallet]

crushed now but pls remind me to pm/convo you re: bold

Eh, it might be a dismal conversation Pretty much I try to apply modern econ theory to hockey rosters as I think there is a nice fix. Much of the interesting stuff for me comes from (a) the notion of roster and time constraints (i.e. 2 50 point players might have more points than 1 75 but cost more "time" on ice which is finite), (b) the notion of beliefs and value (winner's curse), (c) "rareness" of players and (d) inter-temporal trade-offs are crucial. (A 'year' of a player's prime is valuable)

 

[violaswallet]

Hi TIP, been meaning to extend courtesy of reply but crushed and have to cut this short.

I think the bottom line where we agree to disagree is twofold.

First it's about expectations on Math productivity.
You think he's a good gamble to still start to show production at 3-3.5.
I disagree.
He's a bad gamble unless/until he demonstrates something besides speed skating.

Second, his contract can be cut thru another team and retained again, for a broker's fee.
That's not impossible, but it is very difficult and will cost due to Math's 6 years, which is dominant consideration.

I remember looking at something the Wild doing this and them sending you Zuc. Of course, that is an oversimplification of a complex deal involving 3 teams, FL-MIN-NY.
In the end it was concluded we could not have consensus on the whole deal, but this part of it was not a given, either.

Good luck w/this, sincerely.

Not in this chain, but I agree about the gamble.

To be honest, the most feasible trade is Matheson for Turris probably as Nashville probably is a team that can turn around Turris (skill) and Turris is a super redundant asset. I think to make it work Florida will need to send conditional picks...

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Hi TIP, been meaning to extend courtesy of reply but crushed and have to cut this short.

I think the bottom line where we agree to disagree is twofold.

First it's about expectations on Math productivity.
You think he's a good gamble to still start to show production at 3-3.5.
I disagree.
He's a bad gamble unless/until he demonstrates something besides speed skating.

Second, his contract can be cut thru another team and retained again, for a broker's fee.
That's not impossible, but it is very difficult and will cost due to Math's 6 years, which is dominant consideration.

I remember looking at something the Wild doing this and them sending you Zuc. Of course, that is an oversimplification of a complex deal involving 3 teams, FL-MIN-NY.
In the end it was concluded we could not have consensus on the whole deal, but this part of it was not a given, either.

Good luck w/this, sincerely.

Since 2016-17, Matheson is tied for 8th in even strength goals, he is truly a decent goal scorer.
He doesn't have more offense on PP because of Yandle and Ekblad.
He is tasked with some of the toughest match-ups when he should be used as more of a offensive guy.
If he was given some PP time, he could touch 30ish pts imo.

Do you not agree, he is similar to a Skjei type player?
I think the retention to a middle team like OTT/DET/NJ wouldn't be too big of a worry as the cap should start going up in another 3 years.
FLA will have to make it worthwhile for that length of term though.
Have a great weekend Bern.
Talk soon