Sens Shot Marriage or Divorce for RFA Anthony Duclair and the Ottawa Senators?

[Laphroaig]

At 24 years of age I would have no problem trying to lock him up for five or six years. His slump was worrisome but he was electric for quite some time. I believe he's more likely to break out than regress.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I'd prefer a 1 or 2 year deal.

No long term (4+ years) deals for anyone unless you're penciling them in as our core group of guys (and that core is maybe 6 players max).

 

[bert]

What term would you do ?

1 or 3 years personally. 3 X 3 I think is fair for both sides. Gives him some security and the sens have time to develop some of the youngsters. If he proves his worth they can extend him again. If he has 3 solid seasons at that price he becomes a very valuable asset to trade if they dont see a long term future with the team. He has elite skill with game breaking features, if he finds consistency he could be really really good. His game also fits dj's playing style. I also believe him and Chabot are very close.

I would love to say to give him more term but id be weary with his history. 1 year also gives him more of an opportunity to prove himself, two solid years could earn him a long term contract. I think they should have gone two years last year not 1, really wanted to see how he performs with term.

 

[GCK]

This is exactly why the Sens SHOULD take him to arbitration. They will win the settlement and save some money in the process. Trading him when you hold arbitration rights would only make sense if the return is good.

The Sens cannot take Duclair to salary arbitration due to his salary being below the threshold that allows it. The threshold for team elected salary arbitration was around 1.75M plus increases since CBA signing.

 

[GCK]

1 or 3 years personally. 3 X 3 I think is fair for both sides. Gives him some security and the sens have time to develop some of the youngsters. If he proves his worth they can extend him again. If he has 3 solid seasons at that price he becomes a very valuable asset to trade if they dont see a long term future with the team. He has elite skill with game breaking features, if he finds consistency he could be really really good. His game also fits dj's playing style. I also believe him and Chabot are very close.

I would love to say to give him more term but id be weary with his history. 1 year also gives him more of an opportunity to prove himself, two solid years could earn him a long term contract. I think they should have gone two years last year not 1, really wanted to see how he performs with term.

I get the 1 year deal but unless Duclair elects arb it’s unlikely he will sign. What I don’t understand is the 3 year deal, you said 2 year was horrid asset management, I assume because he would be UFA, a 3 year deal ends with him as UFA so really the same difference. I would be leery of the 3 year deal in case he reverts to his previous self. If we pay him 4M for instance then he would be hard to trade in year 3 and he would be blocking one of the prospects. I think in 2022/23 we will have some tough decisions if some of our prospects pan out. If Duclair lights it up next season then we can protect him in the expansion draft and sign him next summer, if he doesn’t we leave him unprotected.

 

[Sweatred]

I think we’re going to see $5x3

 

[bert]

I get the 1 year deal but unless Duclair elects arb it’s unlikely he will sign. What I don’t understand is the 3 year deal, you said 2 year was horrid asset management, I assume because he would be UFA, a 3 year deal ends with him as UFA so really the same difference. I would be leery of the 3 year deal in case he reverts to his previous self. If we pay him 4M for instance then he would be hard to trade in year 3 and he would be blocking one of the prospects. I think in 2022/23 we will have some tough decisions if some of our prospects pan out. If Duclair lights it up next season then we can protect him in the expansion draft and sign him next summer, if he doesn’t we leave him unprotected.

I said 3 x 3 not 4 x 3. I agree i am weary of giving him a long term contract which is why 3 is the max id give him. Like I said in my previous post i wish they had given him a 2 year deal to see how he would do with term.

 

[GCK]

I said 3 x 3 not 4 x 3. I agree i am weary of giving him a long term contract which is why 3 is the max id give him. Like I said in my previous post i wish they had given him a 2 year deal to see how he would do with term.

Fair enough, but I still prefer 2 years to 3 years for the reasons stated.

 

[BatherSeason]

The Sens cannot take Duclair to salary arbitration due to his salary being below the threshold that allows it. The threshold for team elected salary arbitration was around 1.75M plus increases since CBA signing.

Are you sure about this? You may be right, I have no idea of the conditions that need to be met, however, according to Cap Friendly, he IS arb eligible:

https://www.capfriendly.com/arbitration-calculator/2020/all/all/all/anthony-duclair

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

1 year 3 million.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

I hope we keep him. I won't be distraught if we don't though.

 

[NyQuil]

I'd prefer a 1 or 2 year deal.

No long term (4+ years) deals for anyone unless you're penciling them in as our core group of guys (and that core is maybe 6 players max).

Agreed.

I think the biggest risk for this team right now is paying a player too much for too long a contract.

1. We have a lot of talent waiting in the wings to fill those spots over the next 3-5 years.

2. We have a cheap owner meaning that we can't have too much poorly-applied salary on the books.

The corollary of that is, if we do give Duclair a short contract, and he comes through with flying colours, I doubt we will be in the kind of cap trouble that makes it hard to re-sign him. 2 years would be ideal, 3 is longer than I'd like but perhaps where the compromise is.

I really like Duclair and given the way he has performed and developed in Ottawa, I see a place for him on this team.

He's fast and he can cause problems for opposing defencemen with his pace, including on the PK. That's a defensive bonus, not an offensive one.

In general, I can always find room for someone with blazing speed. If his offence dries up, put him on the 3rd and 4th line to forecheck and draw penalties.

 

[Sweatred]

2x$5

Nicely place him about $.25 ahead of White in year two and leave room for Brady to slide in at $6-8.

 

[jhutter]

2x$5

Nicely place him about $.25 ahead of White in year two and leave room for Brady to slide in at $6-8.

Brady at 6 million

 

[Byron Bitz]

I think he’s reached a stage in his career where he probably wants the security of a long term deal

 

[danielpalfredsson]

The Sens cannot take Duclair to salary arbitration due to his salary being below the threshold that allows it. The threshold for team elected salary arbitration was around 1.75M plus increases since CBA signing.

You are right, but it's likely he will take them to arbitration if qualified, not the other way around as someone else suggested.

The thing is, the Sens won't want arbitration. It won't be efficient for them. Duclair could be in a position to get a higher arbitration ruling than what anybody the 31 teams would give him on the open market. So it's more efficient for the Sens to pitch a fair AAV before even thinking of qualifying him.

Maybe I'm off base, but I'd be surprised if he is qualified. I think they 100 percent re-sign him, but if he turns down their offer, I think he heads to free agency, which would hurt both sides IMO.

 

[GCK]

Are you sure about this? You may be right, I have no idea of the conditions that need to be met, however, according to Cap Friendly, he IS arb eligible:

https://www.capfriendly.com/arbitration-calculator/2020/all/all/all/anthony-duclair

He can file but the team can’t.

 

[DrakeAndJosh]

I’d be thrilled with a 5 or more year contract. Obviously hard to say what amount would be fair until we know the cap situation, but I think he’s worth around 5 mill per season. Why do we always wanna run high skill guys out of Ottawa? Duclair is one of the most dynamic players in the entire organization right now, he will be an important piece of the FYOUS.

I also couldn’t care less about how many teams he’s played on. Sometimes players take a while to figure it out, sometimes teams are too stupid to see what they actually have. Whatever the case is, we absolutely stole an elite player for nothing. I’d be pissed if we traded him or took him to ufa and let him walk.

 

[JD1]

I think he’s reached a stage in his career where he probably wants the security of a long term deal

But he hasn't reached a stage in his career where he's displayed enough consistency to get that

 

[Alfie11]

I’d be thrilled with a 5 or more year contract. Obviously hard to say what amount would be fair until we know the cap situation, but I think he’s worth around 5 mill per season. Why do we always wanna run high skill guys out of Ottawa? Duclair is one of the most dynamic players in the entire organization right now, he will be an important piece of the FYOUS.

I also couldn’t care less about how many teams he’s played on. Sometimes players take a while to figure it out, sometimes teams are too stupid to see what they actually have. Whatever the case is, we absolutely stole an elite player for nothing. I’d be pissed if we traded him or took him to ufa and let him walk.

21 goals in his first 47 games and 2 goals in his last 19 games. One other 20 goal season in his career. That's not elite and it's anything but consistent.

Why not wait for another 20+ goal season before committing?

 

[aragorn]

I view Duclair as a transition piece, same for C. Brown & not a long term solution given the good number of prospects that are coming. A 2 or 3 yr deal with either would be fine & hopefully we can move them at some point when one of the prospects are ready to take the next step to replace them. Moving either leading up to a deadline over the next 3 yrs when we get the best offer would work well for a rebuilding team.

 

[BondraTime]

I’d be thrilled with a 5 or more year contract. Obviously hard to say what amount would be fair until we know the cap situation, but I think he’s worth around 5 mill per season. Why do we always wanna run high skill guys out of Ottawa? Duclair is one of the most dynamic players in the entire organization right now, he will be an important piece of the FYOUS.

I also couldn’t care less about how many teams he’s played on. Sometimes players take a while to figure it out, sometimes teams are too stupid to see what they actually have. Whatever the case is, we absolutely stole an elite player for nothing. I’d be pissed if we traded him or took him to ufa and let him walk.

He had a hot 2 week streak in the season in December where he had 11 goals in 9 games. That is not going to happen regularly, ever. It will never happen again, much more than likely.

He had a total of 9 in the first 28 games, which is honestly higher than what we should expect yearly, and 2 in his last 29, obviously lower than we should expect. .

He's a 15-20 goal, offensive 3rd liner similar to younger Vermette, though not as good defensively, as fast, doesn't play center, and not as good on the PK even though he was good producing this year. When I read it back, not very similar I guess...I miss Vermette.

 

[Knave]

If we're too cheap I don't think a long term contract matters.

And the flipside is if ownership doesn't cheap out and we work on building a competitive team... one bad contract that's a little too long in Duclair won't be the difference.

 

[Peptic Balcers]

After his ELC, he signed 3 straight 1 year deals. He seems to like it here, I think he’s gonna want some stability and look for some term. He’ll get paid what a 20 goal RFA should get. Only way he goes 1 year “show me” contract is if he thinks he’s more than a 20 goal scorer

 

[Sweatred]

I’d give him $5 x3. I think he is a perfect candidate for the Sens to move away from to recycle assets in a few years at a TDL ... he probably gets us a first rounder down the road.

Fans will scream that we see losing talent in a potential playoff run but the other options are extend (overpay) or lose for nothing.

Ideally we have a few young candidates on the 3-4th like ready to step into his roll.