Sens Shot Marriage or Divorce for RFA Anthony Duclair and the Ottawa Senators?

[AchtzehnBaby]

Duke Duke Duke...

On February 23rd, 2019 the Ottawa Senators make yet another trade to the Columbus Blue Jackets offloading winger, Ryan Dzingel for a return of two second-round picks (2020, 2021) and a throw-in player with a questionable history.

Fast forward to now and the throw-in piece, 24-year-old Anthony Duclair, would substantially outperform the 28-year-old Ryan Dzingel in just about every way possible. Duclair finished this season with 23 goals, 17 assists, 40 points in 64 games and if he hadn’t have stumbled mightily after Christmas, he was on pace to easily eclipse 50 pts and 30 goals.

Marriage or Divorce for RFA Anthony Duclair and the Ottawa Senators?

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[BatherSeason]

I am pretty sure its not going to be "Marriage or Divorce", most likely scenario is arbitration. There is no way the Sens will pay Duclair what he wants, and the Sens know that they can same some money by going to arbitration. The Sens are all over any money saving alternatives.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

I am pretty sure its not going to be "Marriage or Divorce", most likely scenario is arbitration. There is no way the Sens will pay Duclair what he wants, and the Sens know that they can same some money by going to arbitration. The Sens are all over any money saving alternatives.

That's not a surprising opinion from you.

I think he will sign another short term contract because he wants to be part of the team. Still a bit too risky for the long-term contracts IMO

"When the change is gonna happen, when Ottawa's gonna become a contender, I want to be part of that," Duclair added. "So I'm working as hard as I can."

 

[Tuna99]

He deserves more then 1 year, but it is Ottawa so I think they’ll settle on 1 year and see at the deadline where the situation is at.

I’d like to keep Duke, he’s a game breaker. Seems like a good fit in Ottawa and with Coach DJ.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

He deserves more then 1 year, but it is Ottawa so I think they’ll settle on 1 year and see at the deadline where the situation is at.

I’d like to keep Duke, he’s a game breaker. Seems like a good fit in Ottawa and with Coach DJ.

I just hope that he's okay with Pager gone. Weren't they buddies?

 

[JungleBeat]

I just hope that he's okay with Pager gone. Weren't they buddies?

This isn’t a daycare. Who cares if they’re buddies.

 

[GCK]

I suspect either a 2 or 3 year deal. Probably in the 3M range.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

This isn’t a daycare. Who cares if they’re buddies.

It's not Romper Room, but team dynamic depends on relationships on and off the ice.

 

[slamigo]

Insanity if they don't resign this kid. He has loads of talent. One of the few Sens that actually has that 'get up out of your seat to see the play' quality.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I imagine they'll try and squeeze a short term cheap deal since they're poor, but I'd prefer a mid term deal.

Imo he should be a priority ahead of Conner Brown, but I don't get the feeling Dorion sees it that way.

 

[GCK]

I imagine they'll try and squeeze a short term cheap deal since they're poor, but I'd prefer a mid term deal.

Imo he should be a priority ahead of Conner Brown, but I don't get the feeling Dorion sees it that way.

I would prioritize Brown over Duclair easily.

Brown is a far better player.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I would prioritize Brown over Duclair easily.

Brown is a far better player.

Disagree, but other opinions are warranted. They are very different players.

Duclair has natural game breaking potential talent, Brown is much lower in the skill dept but puts in the effort. This team needs skill above all else atm imo and Duclair is a gauranteed top 6 to me whereas I see Brown as an overachiever due to getting Crosby like minutes and role and he will be pushed down sooner than later.

 

[BatherSeason]

That's not a surprising opinion from you.

I think he will sign another short term contract because he wants to be part of the team. Still a bit too risky for the long-term contracts IMO

"When the change is gonna happen, when Ottawa's gonna become a contender, I want to be part of that," Duclair added. "So I'm working as hard as I can."

Isnt the bolded part exactly what this board is trying to get away from? Is anything I said false? Do the Sens not like to try and save money at all costs?? Does it make sense for the Sens to try to save money by going to arbitration?

Either way, I never stated that it was the right or wrong decision, the team has the right to take the player to arbitration, and my guess is that they will. Maybe a one year settlement is a good idea and re-visit a new contract next offseason.

 

[playasRus]

I wouldn't do more than a two year deal on such a volatile player in terms of performance. He's see-sawed between blue chipper, top liner, and fourth liner over his 6 year career. Total inconsistency. Bet CBJ regrets the trade and CAR regrets giving Dzingel 6 million (but atleast it's just two years) which is exactly the situation we could find ourselves in with Duclair if we overcommit.

Giving him 2.5mil x 3y would be fine but if he's commanding more money (3x3), I'd stick to a one-two years and save that cap space/cash.
If after the 1-2 year contract he continues at 20/20 pace, can always trade him for value. He's not a franchise changing talent level player. Tying him up to big UFA money would prevent you from acquiring or retaining such talent though.

Crazy that a 7th round pick spent on Dzingel in 2011 turned into a couple of years of a 20 goal scorer, traded for maybe a couple more years of another 20 goal scorer, plus 2 2nd round picks, and maybe more high picks if we trade Duclair and he's not a flash in the pan in ~2022.

Considering he's UFA after 1 year, I don't see Duclair hating it, but he might prefer guaranteed 4 mil (through two years) or 7 mil (through 3 years) than 2 mil considering landscape of the current world.

 

[BatherSeason]

I wouldn't do more than a two year deal on such a volatile player in terms of performance. He's see-sawed between blue chipper, top liner, and fourth liner over his 6 year career. Total inconsistency. Bet CBJ regrets the trade and CAR regrets giving him 6 million (but atleast it's just two years).

This is exactly why the Sens SHOULD take him to arbitration. They will win the settlement and save some money in the process. Trading him when you hold arbitration rights would only make sense if the return is good.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

3X3 or 4X4.

Otherwise let him do a one year at the lowest possible number. No need to sign him to term unless it comes with some real value money-wise. The risk is simply too great with Duclair.

 

[Icelevel]

I don’t see it mattering much. 1-3 year contract. We’re not contending in the next couple years. By the time we’re ready he’ll be further down the depth chart and expendable. Which kind of makes him expendable now.
I’d like to see him here one more year at least.

 

[thinkwild]

It's such a time of uncertainty, it must be hard to craft longer term deals. I dont think there is any real need or benefit to signing him much beyond an arbitration agreement at this time, even if they settle on that. Arbitration usually happens at the end of july right when the playoffs are hoped to be happening. Arbitration season will surely have to be even later?

 

[danielpalfredsson]

How Sens seem to operate with ARB-RFA/UFA players is, we will go long term if it is on our terms. If not, we will squeeze out your RFA years and trade you for assets.

Given we are a budget team, I can't argue against this approach. There is such a large margin for error with these contracts, and players 25+ rarely have much of an upward trajectory that would justify locking them in. With a superstar, it is usually a necessary evil because they have leverage.

Duclair is like Logan Brown to me. High risk/high reward. He could score 40 goals next year, but he could also sign long term and deliver a performance closer to what he closed out the season with.

We don't have enough skill and speed. But I don't blame the Sens for going year to year.

The headline of divorce is a bit dramatic. The Sens and Duclair can keep dating for a while before there is pressure to pop the question. Also, it doesn't make sense from a narrative standpoint. They'd have to already be married to divorce. Right now, I think they have maybe a Pam/Roy thing going on.

 

[StoicSensFan]

I want to see him and Logan Brown play together more, their chemistry seemed great

 

[JD1]

2 years walks him to UFA. That's out

3 or more years contains risk. We've seen some great Duclair and we've seen an extended stretch of can't accomplish anything Duclair.

1 year. Arbitration if neccessary. If Duclair posts another Jekyll and Hyde season where he is a 40 goal man for 1/2 a season and a 10 goal man for the other 1/2 season then we should move on.

If he posts a typical NHL 30 goal season that contains some hot and cold stretches, that's pretty normal. Sign him as a 30 goal man to a 3 or 4 year term

 

[Sweatred]

Colin White gets 14G riding shotgun to MD/MS and the fan base praises his $4.75/6yr deal... Duc more than doubles those goals playing without a puck distributer all season and the fan base would scream if we gave him CW Money... hmmmm.

 

[TheNewEra]

Where is the celebrity marriage option of a three year trial basis?

 

[LudwigVonKarlsson]

Colin White gets 14G riding shotgun to MD/MS and the fan base praises his $4.75/6yr deal... Duc more than doubles those goals playing without a puck distributer all season and the fan base would scream if we gave him CW Money... hmmmm.

Who exactly is praising Colin White and his contract?

 

[Alfie11]

2 years for Duclair - no more. The money doesn't really matter, although I'm guess $3 to $4.5 million.

It all depends on what kind of consistency he finds. Streaky scorers are ok, especially when you can't afford elite, but the dropoff last year was too much.

Right now the Sens have no punch. Duclair can score goals. He's entertaining to watch, especially on a rush. They should definitely keep him, unless they have a surefire new player coming in. They just can't commit to any kind of term until they have a better idea of what to expect from Duke.