Sens Shot Marriage or Divorce for RFA Anthony Duclair and the Ottawa Senators?

[Micklebot]

I am pretty sure its not going to be "Marriage or Divorce", most likely scenario is arbitration. There is no way the Sens will pay Duclair what he wants, and the Sens know that they can same some money by going to arbitration. The Sens are all over any money saving alternatives.

This brings up an interesting question; how the heck are arbitrators going to handle the impact of the pandemic on HRR? If they are to just apply recent comparable contracts and select the best fit, that could make for a tremendous over-payment.

 

[Alfie11]

Colin White gets 14G riding shotgun to MD/MS and the fan base praises his $4.75/6yr deal... Duc more than doubles those goals playing without a puck distributer all season and the fan base would scream if we gave him CW Money... hmmmm.

A lot of people are going on about White and calling him overpaid and including him in trade proposals (ie: dump the contract).

White had a pedigree and a decent start to his career. That long term contract was an investment that White would be a bargain in the later years.

Duclair was a star coming out of junior and then has had very up and down career on multiple teams. He had a great start in Ottawa followed by a horrible 2nd half in terms of production last year. It's not hard to see why people don't want to spend big on Duclair at the moment.

Finally, the comparison and then the "hmmm" comment at the end is not helpful at all. In todays social and political situation it's both insulting and trivializes a very serious issue.

 

[bert]

I suspect either a 2 or 3 year deal. Probably in the 3M range.

2 years brings him right to UFA I really hope that management has enough forsight to know any other length is better. Id give him 3 years 9 million personally, he seems to be in the core group of players (Chabot, White Tkachuk) and I think is still getting better. He has size, strength, speed and skill while fitting into the core age group. He is exactly the type of player they should be building around.

 

[TheNewEra]

2 years brings him right to UFA I really hope that management has enough forsight to know any other length is better. Id give him 3 years 9 million personally, he seems to be in the core group of players (Chabot, White Tkachuk) and I think is still getting better. He has size, strength, speed and skill while fitting into the core age group. He is exactly the type of player they should be building around.

agreed. I figured three years is the way to go since i doubt duclair is willing to sign himself short. That being said if for some reason he wants to sign long term (4+ years) in the 3-3.5 million cap hit range i would still strongly consider that. Since that cap hit range would be a relative bargain for a .5 ppg player if dukes play was to drop off. Im guessing long term he will want 4.5 plus and that becomes a bit more risky

 

[Sting]

I'm not sure if I want Duclair in the top 6 when we're contending...but for now, I think he would be helpful to have around playing with some of the kids...particularly the playmakers.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

He's still our most skilled forward and arguably the only one with real game breaking talent, so he definitely has a place on the roster regardless of who's drafted.

In the end though, I expect he'll be more of a stop gap like Connor Brown, not a real cornerstone piece.

 

[BondraTime]

Sign him for 1 year, and cut bait at the trade deadline for whatever assets we can get back, preferably a good young AHL player that can make the jump to the NHL.

 

[Sweatred]

Who exactly is praising Colin White and his contract?

95% of this board loved the deal... reread his signing post.

 

[Sweatred]

A lot of people are going on about White and calling him overpaid and including him in trade proposals (ie: dump the contract).

White had a pedigree and a decent start to his career. That long term contract was an investment that White would be a bargain in the later years.

Duclair was a star coming out of junior and then has had very up and down career on multiple teams. He had a great start in Ottawa followed by a horrible 2nd half in terms of production last year. It's not hard to see why people don't want to spend big on Duclair at the moment.

Finally, the comparison and then the "hmmm" comment at the end is not helpful at all. In todays social and political situation it's both insulting and trivializes a very serious issue.

Anthony Duclair is a better hockey player then Colin White. You just fed me a bunch of BS tying to excuse why Duc doesn’t deserve White+ money.

Duc has good pedigree, had a better start to his NHL career, outscored White in his rookie year, more NHL goals etc etc. Plus is he more effective on the ice.

I bet DJ wants Duc over White in any situation. 5v5, PP, PK etc.

 

[Alfie11]

Anthony Duclair is a better hockey player then Colin White. You just fed me a bunch of BS tying to excuse why Duc doesn’t deserve White+ money.

No, I explained to you why White got paid and why people are reluctant to pay big money for Duclair right now.

Right now that Colin White contract looks like a mistake. I don't think the team needs to repeat the mistake, especially on a player whose career has been anything but consistent.

 

[Sweatred]

No, I explained to you why White got paid and why people are reluctant to pay big money for Duclair right now.

Right now that Colin White contract looks like a mistake. I don't think the team needs to repeat the mistake, especially on a player whose career has been anything but consistent.

Colin White was handed $26 million after barely .6 PPG in the AHL as a 21 year old and 14G's as a 22 year old .... Everybody thought that was fair... Feel like DUC has accomplished as much.

 

[GCK]

Colin White gets 14G riding shotgun to MD/MS and the fan base praises his $4.75/6yr deal... Duc more than doubles those goals playing without a puck distributer all season and the fan base would scream if we gave him CW Money... hmmmm.

Let’s compare when White has played 5 NHL seasons. Didn’t mean to step on your narrative.

 

[GCK]

2 years brings him right to UFA I really hope that management has enough forsight to know any other length is better. Id give him 3 years 9 million personally, he seems to be in the core group of players (Chabot, White Tkachuk) and I think is still getting better. He has size, strength, speed and skill while fitting into the core age group. He is exactly the type of player they should be building around.

I don’t believe management sees him as part of the team long term so no issue with UFA

 

[GCK]

No Duke has not. 5 full seasons and he is on team number 4.

 

[Sweatred]

Let’s compare when White has played 5 NHL seasons. Didn’t mean to step on your narrative.

Sure ... I’d bet White will have provided negative value on his contract. He will be making upwards of $6.25 by the end of that deal. He’s going to have to put up Brady value at some point to even out the negative value he will have piled up.

 

[GCK]

Sure ... I’d bet White will have provided negative value on his contract. He will be making upwards of $6.25 by the end of that deal. He’s going to have to put up Brady value at some point to even out the negative value he will have piled up.

Or he will put up .667 PPG next year and be positive value.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Colin White was handed $26 million after barely .6 PPG in the AHL as a 21 year old and 14G's as a 22 year old .... Everybody thought that was fair... Feel like DUC has accomplished as much.

Safe to say if Colin White doesn't drastically improve from last year, it will be a bad contract.

I think a lot of people (like myself) were happy simply because the organization had done nothing but kick the can down the road (costing them players because of it) for a lot of years and they finally ponied up for a couple guys proactively.

It was a refreshing look for a team that had been trying to squeeze nothing but short term juice out of everyone for like 5 years running.

 

[Cosmix]

No, I explained to you why White got paid and why people are reluctant to pay big money for Duclair right now.

Right now that Colin White contract looks like a mistake. I don't think the team needs to repeat the mistake, especially on a player whose career has been anything but consistent.

The Senators are a team that does not pay UFAs large salaries and bonuses. Duclair is one of the best offensive players this team has at the moment and is not yet a UFA. I would do a 3 year contract at 3 to 4 M per. That would not break the non-cap budget and help the team reach the min salary requirements. If this team would get a legit 1st and 2nd line center that would help Duclair realize his potential. Unfortunately that 1st and 2nd line center issue will not be resolved soon but there is some potential in the system and we might get lucky with our 2020 draft picks (L. Brown, Norris, Byfield, Stutzle, Rossi). I don't want to sign over-the-hill retreads. I would rather sign Duclair.

 

[Sweatred]

The Senators are a team that does not pay UFAs large salaries and bonuses. Duclair is one of the best offensive players this team has at the moment and is not yet a UFA. I would do a 3 year contract at 3 to 4 M per. That would not break the non-cap budget and help the team reach the min salary requirements. If this team would get a legit 1st and 2nd line center that would help Duclair realize his potential. Unfortunately that 1st and 2nd line center issue will not be resolved soon but there is some potential in the system and we might get lucky with our 2020 draft picks (L. Brown, Norris, Byfield, Stutzle, Rossi). I don't want to sign over-the-hill retreads. I would rather sign Duclair.

We need Duclair or another trigger(s) to give Brown, Batherson, Norris , Byfield or whoever an option to convert on their passes. He has the best release on the team and one of the only guys who can score from anywhere inside the blue line. Most of our rookies are pass first prospects.

Those assists will boost our rookies confidence and limit the “no points in ten games” cycles which limit ice time and eventually end up with a trip to Belleville.

 

[Sweatred]

Or he will put up .667 PPG next year and be positive value.

Ya - I didn’t mean to be as harsh... I really wish we just bridged him and let him become a $5 million player before we paid him as one.

I would love for him to take a huge developmental step forward showing up to camp with 10lbs of muscle bursting with confidence.

 

[dumbdick]

Usually I'm cautious of taking on bad contracts. Not so much here. Duke's got the goods.

Provided he'll trade a bit of term security for lower dollars, I'd go as long as he'll go. He hasn't had a huge payday yet and I think this is the time to gamble and try to get him on a steal of a contract. I think Hoffman is a good comparable as a player but Duke has more question marks, so I'd want a lower number than Hoff's 4 @ $5.1M.

I'd offer him the same number as White, maybe 5 years instead of 6 though. Duke's ceiling is crazy high and I think he's put it together now.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

8 Years x 4M might be a potential steal for Duclair. Good value at a very good term.

 

[bert]

I don’t believe management sees him as part of the team long term so no issue with UFA

Thats horrid asset management either way and makes no logistical sense. I also dont agree with you, I think like most players on the team they are going to let their play determine that.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

This brings up an interesting question; how the heck are arbitrators going to handle the impact of the pandemic on HRR? If they are to just apply recent comparable contracts and select the best fit, that could make for a tremendous over-payment.

The cap is going to stay flat, and arbitration will be 1-2 year contracts, so it isn't like there'll be much change in that situation.

The kind of change we'll see is over long term contracts, where teams might be less aggressive. Usually, teams go long term because if they lock a player down long term, the cap will go up, and the players cap hit will deflate as a result. (Meaning, it will take up a lower percentage of the salary cap than when it was signed)

If the cap isn't going up, or teams aren't sure if it will go up, there's no real advantage to going long term. The only players who will get long term deals are superstars who have the leverage to get it.

In terms of arbitration, we might see more teams not qualify players, and risk the player becoming a UFA. Teams who are tight to the cap won't want to risk that a player can get too much. The Sharks did this with Demelo a few years ago. This usually happens with players who might have a good resume in traditional statistics to argue for a raise in arbitration, but would never actually get that raise as a UFA on the open market.

I don't think the Senators actually qualified Duclair last season. They gave him a very fair 1 year AAV. I wonder if it is a situation where they put something on the table, and if he wasn't interested, weren't going to risk qualifying him because of the risk of arbitration. The dynamic with Duclair last season was that the Senators paid him more than any other team would have given him if he hit free agency, but if they qualified him, they risked him getting a greater settlement than what they gave him because he had amassed a reasonably GP and has had decent offensive production.

I think the dynamic is similar this season. I think Ottawa will give him more on a 1 year deal than he could reasonably expect to get as a UFA, but Ottawa won't qualify him because they won't want to risk a big arbitration ruling. I think he will get a raise, but his AAV will be a lot less than people expect.

 

[GCK]

Thats horrid asset management either way and makes no logistical sense. I also dont agree with you, I think like most players on the team they are going to let their play determine that.

What term would you do ?