Speculation: Marner V13 See OP for Warning

[PromisedLand]

Your argument is flawed.

Tavares has always played against the top line of the opponent every night until last year, too.

The only time he was on a team with this much talent was on an international team.

That is a flawed argument; If your claim is that JT's stats look good because of the talent surrounding him then why is that also not true for Matthews?

Marner clearly helped Tavares' even strength production reach career highs as seen in that table. If both marner and tavares did not suck on PP last season both would have cracked 100 pts barrier easily

 

[PromisedLand]

Wait, really? Those rules only apply to front-loaded deals? Interesting...

If you are correct, then Friedman’s $15M in year 3 ask does jive with Mirtle’s reported $10M/3Y ask. Which leads me to believe that you are correct.

I think Marner will slightly budge from this but it’s pretty close to what he will end up getting.



I meant Marner’s camp offering a deal with $15M in year 3.

Also, James Mirtle clarified that that was a report.

Just FYI having read this buffoon of a journalist when he was employed with the newspaper "globe and mail" i can tell you this guy is more steam than substance

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I have always maintained that it was a bad deal. The cap hit was about what I expected, the term was shorter than I expected. However, it should be said that others who have taken big 5 year deals after their ELCs have not taken big raises on their next deals (Malkin went from 8.7 to 9.5 with his cap hit falling from 15.34 to 14.77; Stamkos went from 7.5 to 8.5 with his cap hit falling from 11.66 to 11.64; Crosby stayed at 8.7 with his cap hit falling from 17.3 to 14.5) whereas other who may have felt a bit slighted with 5 year deals did get big raises (eg Tavares went from 5.5 to 11 with his cap hit increasing from 8.55 to 13.84) so as we don't know what his next contract will be I can't comment about it.

All of those players could have gotten more on the ufa market.

Do you see any indication from the leafs young 3 that they’ll do ANYTHING short of maximizing their salary?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

It also wouldn't kill people to admit the deal was fine. The Leafs and Matthews as negotiated the deal they are fine with. As you stated, the Leafs needed to sign him. They clearly think that Matthews is their superstar, and the Leafs can resign him to another contract in 4-5 years time.

The contract is NOT fine. It’s considered a complete joke to pretty much everyone other than 3 or 4 posters that spam the forum here. The unprecedented dramatic overpayment of matthews is SPECIFICALLY what’s causing problems with the current Marner negotiation.

 

[Leaf Fans]

The contract is NOT fine. It’s considered a complete joke to pretty much everyone other than 3 or 4 posters that spam the forum here. The unprecedented dramatic overpayment of matthews is SPECIFICALLY what’s causing problems with the current Marner negotiation.

Nonsense, the only people who consider it a joke are the whiners on the board. Leafs are happy with it Matthews is happy with it- we are irrelevant ultimately.

 

[PromisedLand]

Why would a GM explicitly state the reasons for a signing? However, if I pull the 5 year contracts that are usually discussed from when I was looking at players historically, it seems to line up quite well (better than raw points).

Their is their ES P/GP over their ELCs at time of signing, adjusted for the league ES scoring rates of that era (which boosts historical players and drops current players). All were 5 year deals.

Crosby - 0.74 - 17.30%
Malkin - 0.73 - 15.34%
Matthews - 0.67 - 14.02%
Stamkos - 0.56 - 11.66%
P. Kane - 0.54 - 11.09%
Toews - 0.54 - 11.09
Aho - 0.50 - 10.37%
Kessel - 0.47 - 9.51%
Larkin - 0.46 - 7.67%

To be fully transparent, Crosby and Malkin signed a year early, and Kane and Toews signed mid-season before a cap projection was known, so their true percentages that were negotiated aren't truly known. Kane and Toews however did sign in the season after the cap only rose 0.1m, so who knows how that played into things.

It should also be mentioned that Matthews' ES G/GP adjusted for era (which again, boosts Ovechkin) is right at Ovechkin's level, and if we remove EN goals, Matthews actually surpasses him by 0.001 G/GP.

Accomplishments by the players (bolded) are much greater than Matthews. I love Matthews but I am a Leafs fan first and I am not blinded with the love-affair that some folks have with dubas

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Nonsense, the only people who consider it a joke are the whiners on the board. Leafs are happy with it Matthews is happy with it- we are irrelevant ultimately.

Yes, clearly MATTHEWS is happy with his unprecedented dramatic overpayment. I don’t for a second believe the leafs are. Our rookie gm gave him a blank check after being humiliated and losing his confidence in the Nylander debacle.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Yes, clearly MATTHEWS is happy with his unprecedented dramatic overpayment. I don’t for a second believe the leafs are. Our rookie gm gave him a blank check after being humiliated and losing his confidence in the Nylander debacle.

He is happy with his fair contract, and has done a great job with Nylander.

 

[biotk]

All of those players could have gotten more on the ufa market.

Do you see any indication from the leafs young 3 that they’ll do ANYTHING short of maximizing their salary?

Now is not 5 years from now.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

He is happy with his fair contract, and has done a great job with Nylander.

Hahahahahah

I remember a week before Burke was fired there was a leaf board poll asking if they’re happy with Burke. It was something like 80% that voted yes.

Now his reign of terror in Toronto is seen as a flat out disgrace.

The precise same thing will happen with Dubas. The leafs had an elite young promising core for the first time... uh... in a century? (Not an exaggeration). Dubas will go down as the one who DESTROYED that by giving OUTRAGEOUS contracts and ruining the team.

You’ll see.

You won’t see it yet, just like those leaf fans that defended Burke all along. But oh, how silly you’ll feel when you look back on it.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Now is not 5 years from now.

So let’s not worry about the unprecedented dramatic overpayments. Why? Because our young stars that are clearly ONE HUNDRED PERCENT all about the money... well... they “might” not be in 5 years.

Wow.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Accomplishments by the players (bolded) are much greater than Matthews. I love Matthews but I am a Leafs fan first and I am not blinded with the love-affair that some folks have with dubas

There is really no evidence that so-called "accomplishments" have any significant effect on contracts, regardless of the insane value some fans place on them.

Also, many did not have the accomplishments that you are probably thinking.

Toews had no awards
Kane just had a Calder (which Matthews has)
Stamkos just had a Rocket (Matthews was 2nd in his rookie year)
Malkin just had a Calder (which Matthews has)
Crosby did have an Art Ross, Lindsay, and Hart.

It has nothing to do with Dubas. It's about evaluating things properly.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Hahahahahah

I remember a week before Burke was fired there was a leaf board poll asking if they’re happy with Burke. It was something like 80% that voted yes.

Now his reign of terror in Toronto is seen as a flat out disgrace.

The precise same thing will happen with Dubas. The leafs had an elite young promising core for the first time... uh... in a century? (Not an exaggeration). Dubas will go down as the one who DESTROYED that by giving OUTRAGEOUS contracts and ruining the team.

You’ll see.

You won’t see it yet, just like those leaf fans that defended Burke all along. But oh, how silly you’ll feel when you look back on it.

Dubas has been fine regardless of what Burke did or didn't do. They are completely different. The Leafs still have an elite promising core. I mean I miss Kadri as well but I don't put him as part of our elite promising core. Dubas has given out fair contracts to our RFAs we still gotta get Marner tied up, but he hasn't lost anyone. The future looks bright for the Leafs.

 

[Leaf Fans]

So let’s not worry about the unprecedented dramatic overpayments. Why? Because our young stars that are clearly ONE HUNDRED PERCENT all about the money... well... they “might” not be in 5 years.

Wow.

There haven't been any unprecedented dramatic overpayments you just made that up. You even bold it sometimes.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Dubas has been fine regardless of what Burke did or didn't do. They are completely different. The Leafs still have an elite promising core. I mean I miss Kadri as well but I don't put him as part of our elite promising core. Dubas has given out fair contracts to our RFAs we still gotta get Marner tied up, but he hasn't lost anyone. The future looks bright for the Leafs.

If you think Dubas’s rfa contracts have been “fair”, you are amongst a VERY small minority of nhl fans.

I dare you to create a poll asking other fans what they think of the Matthews contract.

Yes. They’re all already aware of the nonsense stats you and your ilk cling to. They quite literally don’t change ANYBODYS minds though.

Matthews should have got somewhere in between Eichel and McDavids aav over EIGHT years. What he got is a complete and utter joke. And it’s not (lol) “leaf hate” that makes everyone critical of the contract.

 

[Martin Skoula]

No, my first thought after Tavares signed for $11 million was that Matthews and Marner were also going to demand $11 million.

And the team was prepared for that eventuality. I'd rather Tavares + an extra 3 mil spent on Matthews and Marner with a cheap 4th line than the alternative.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

And the team was prepared for that eventuality. I'd rather Tavares + an extra 3 mil spent on Matthews and Marner with a cheap 4th line than the alternative.

Every teams 4th line is dirt cheap.

It’s the leafs DEFENCE that is affected by these unprecedented dramatic overpayments of the forward stars.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

There haven't been any unprecedented dramatic overpayments you just made that up. You even bold it sometimes.

WIth mcDavid at 12.5x8.... you tell me. What is the fair Matthews aav at EIGHT years?

 

[Leaf Fans]

If you think Dubas’s rfa contracts have been “fair”, you are amongst a VERY small minority of nhl fans.

I dare you to create a poll asking other fans what they think of the Matthews contract.

Yes. They’re all already aware of the nonsense stats you and your ilk cling to. They quite literally don’t change ANYBODYS minds though.

Matthews should have got somewhere in between Eichel and McDavids aav over EIGHT years. What he got is a complete and utter joke. And it’s not (lol) “leaf hate” that makes everyone critical of the contract.

I am among the NHL fans who understand what a good contract is. I have no idea how to make a poll but why bother? I don't care how many people agree with with me or not. I have not clung to any stats. Of course I wouldn't change anybody's mind. I won't even attempt to, but I will still correct people when they are wrong though.

 

[Leaf Fans]

WIth mcDavid at 12.5x8.... you tell me. What is the fair Matthews aav at EIGHT years?

McDavid, in my opinion, is the best player in the NHL.

 

[Coachcorner]

Its bout that real lova. Why does a real loved one and real liked one trying ta get more hatas? That's the question. So many otha suckas has signed already. Marner better push the button real hard and get that paper. He is loved by the city and its peopple. It's amazing he hasn't signed yet. Like labanc and thornton did, so many otha suckas too. Some fools is just plain dumb and selfish. Ya'll don't even get it. Ya'll better learn bout life, I'm bout that. Leafs could be legendary again if the fool signs.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Yeah - let's not worry. I mean, I know that for the next 5 or more years you are going to continue having the stroke that you started having many months ago, but like where is it getting you? 5 years from now Matthews' will have made 60+ million dollars. He will probably see the world differently than he does now - probably value some things differently - and even if he doesn't...who cares?

Yeah. “Who cares”?

Who cares that our gm sucks. Who cares that the team will suck. Who cares that we have ONE d locked up next year due to the unprecedented dramatic overpayments.

Who cares.

Pray tell... why are you here discussing something that you don’t care about?

I don’t care I’m the slightest about... say... the Buffalo Bills. As such, I’ve spent precisely ZERO seconds of my life discussing them on Internet forums. (Ok... I guess one second now).

 

[Dekes For Days]

WIth mcDavid at 12.5x8

12.5m x 8, signed 2 years ago, after a significant public discount/lack of leverage used, which gives him arguably the best post-ELC contract at time of signing in the entire cap era**

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I am among the NHL fans who understand what a good contract is. I have no idea how to make a poll but why bother? I don't care how many people agree with with me or not. I have not clung to any stats. Of course I wouldn't change anybody's mind. I won't even attempt to, but I will still correct people when they are wrong though.

Haha, right.

Of course.

You and a handful of other leaf fans are “right”, and quite literally everyone else is wrong.

I have literally had a flat earther say something similar to me. Everyone else who disagrees with them is just “wrong” and “stupid”. Even if it’s the 99%.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

McDavid, in my opinion, is the best player in the NHL.

Yeah. He makes 12.5x8.

What should Matthews aav be at EIGHT years?