Speculation: Marner offer sheet

[Wry n Ginger]

What are the chances the Canucks could land Marner with one of the following offer sheet offers.

10 million per year - 2 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd
Over 10.2ish - 4 1sts

Given that we will MOST likely not be a bottom 10 team next year and will almost certainly be a playoff team the year after and continue on an upward trajectory, would you consider making one of these offers to land him? I would not hesitate to offer 10 million per year to him and would be VERY tempted to offer in the 12-14 range and cough up the 4 1sts. The chances of the 4 firsts equaling his points totals given the likely chance they are mid to late round firsts are not good.

If you do not agree with my analysis of the Canucks likely-hood of moving up in the standings over the next 1-5 years kindly STAY OUT OF THIS THREAD. Keep this conversation to the Marner v picks analysis please and thank you.

Hugs.

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[Boose Brudreau]

What are the chances the Canucks could land Marner with one of the following offer sheet offers.

10 million per year - 2 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd
Over 10.2ish - 4 1sts

Given that we will MOST likely not be a bottom 10 team next year and will almost certainly be a playoff team the year after and continue on an upward trajectory, would you consider making one of these offers to land him? I would not hesitate to offer 10 million per year to him and would be VERY tempted to offer in the 12-14 range and cough up the 4 1sts. The chances of the 4 firsts equaling his points totals given the likely chance they are mid to late round firsts are not good.

If you do not agree with my analysis of the Canucks likely-hood of moving up in the standings over the next 1-5 years kindly STAY OUT OF THIS THREAD. Keep this conversation to the Marner v picks analysis please and thank you.

Hugs.

I would put the chances of Marner signing that offer sheet at close to zero......and if by some chance he did, the leafs would match and laugh. That said, I'd love him on the Canucks.

 

[Mal Reynolds]

Two points

If Toronto is smart, they'll lock him up long before July 1st

You'd think they match any semi-reasonable offer, regardless of the extra cap gymastics that will require them to do

But to answer your question, we need to get more skill *somehow*. I'd prefer to keep the picks myself

 

[xtra]

How do you assume we would almost surely be a playoff team in 2 years? Progression isn’t linear and in fact a lot of the underlying stats show that we haven’t improved much at all.

 

[Eddy Punch Clock]

These players don't come along often (understatement)..... and no guarantees with what we get out of those picks... Marner is as much of a sure thing as anyone else in the league. A player like that without having to lose any roster players? I think I do it for sure. My only concern is that we put ourselves in the same cap hell that would have forced Toronto to let him go in the first place.

But thats cool, when Gillis returns with his cap guru back in the fold things will be just fine once again in Canuck Nation.

 

[ChilliBilly]

Personally think this would be a disaster. We could very well be in line for 1st overall next year (as much chance as anyone) and you can't protect them. I also don't think Marner is as elite as $10 M / year.

But I actually think we make the playoffs next year. Cuz of EP.

We are going to get a decent piece out of the draft.

20 21 I hope Juolevi Tryamkin and Hughes are the core of the D, with Woo inching in.

goaltending will be fine.

We need a couple of top 6 wingers, but overpaying FA's usually proves to be a disaster. When was the last time the Canucks signed a player to a large long term contract that didn't turn out bad. And at the expense of our draft picks for years? No thanks. We have had years of "quick fixes" to make us competitive, and none have worked.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Highly unlikely.

Toronto gifted us Leivo. We owe them.

 

[JuniorNelson]

I think offer sheets are in the CBA to protect the league from the appearance of collusion (which is racketeering under US trade laws). Teams don't often do it because it's perceived as poaching. Players rarely accept to avoid looking disloyal. It's the kind of dick move a lawyer would do. So, yeah, if the Canucks bring back Gillis there's a good chance they offend everybody.

Would Marner enter into a business arrangement with people exploiting a loophole? Hmm.

 

[Jay Cee]

Toronto knows right now what it will likely take to get the deal done. If it's just a matter of offering an extra million to match an offer sheet they will likely do it. It would have to be a massive offer sheet to get the deal done. I don't think there is any chance we do it.

 

[koyvoo]

I saw this on another hockey forum

 

[604]

I don't think our team is in a position to be giving 1sts away for anybody right now. Even with Mariner, our 1st has a decent chance, say 10% of being #1 overall in either of the two drafts that we'd be giving it away.

 

[Jay Cee]

We're not lucky enough for Marner to completely screw the Leafs.

 

[David Bruce Banner]

Highly unlikely.

Toronto gifted us Leivo. We owe them.

Nah, that was payback for us loaning them Gagner.

And count me in on thinking we are more likely to have yet another top 10 pick next year rather than making the playoffs.

Handing Toronto up to 4 first rounders, when we are a mediocre team at best (even with Marner), seems like we'd be asking for trouble.

If we were a team team heading into a SC contending window, I'd do it in a heartbeat... but we're not.

 

[TruGr1t]

Nope.

 

[canuckfan75]

He may sign a offer sheet. But no way from us. way too Radical for this management. I do think he will sign for $12 million per year.

like he says in his commercials that comes on 20 times during the games. give him a biscuit. I hate that commercial

 

[F A N]

If we can sign Marner to an offer sheet without giving up 4 firsts I would do it. But I expect Marner to want Matthews money. 4 firsts is not worth it.

 

[Hollywood Burrows]

There's no way Jim Benning could properly fill out the paperwork required to submit an offer sheet to the NHL.

 

[tantalum]

It's an option but I have to imagine that Toronto will know if he wants to re-sign with them or not before that times comes. The Marner camp will use it as leverage to get a trade (and likely a trade to somewhere he does want to play). And if he is traded there will be a long term deal already agreed to with the new team. It's leverage but in the end I don't believe an offer sheet will happen because he'll already be locked up by someone when July 1 comes around.

And I don't think the canucks have the horses to make such a trade.

Offer sheet wise, if that were an option I wouldn't want to go the 4 1sts route but could accept the 2 firsts etc. Thing is, if the Marner camp is soliciting offer sheets then I imagine SOMEONE will submit a 4 1sts type offer. The canucks need to stay away from that bidding war.

 

[CloutierForVezina]

I would not hesitate to offer 10 million per year to him and would be VERY tempted to offer in the 12-14 range and cough up the 4 1sts. The chances of the 4 firsts equaling his points totals given the likely chance they are mid to late round firsts are not good.

I think it's 100% guaranteed that the leafs instantly match any offer around 10M. I think we have to get the offer up to around 12M before they even blink.

Now there's really two questions about giving up 4 1st round picks for Marner.

#1 - Is Marner worth more than 4 1st round picks? In my mind, 100% absolutely. Marner is a proven, young, elite talent. He's a gamebreaker. The chance that anyone in those 4 1sts becomes anywhere near Marner is pretty slim, especially since once we add Marner we'll be a significantly better team and our 1st round picks won't be very high.

x-Pettersson-Boeser
x-Horvat-Marner

Is the kind of forward core that can make a serious run at a cup.

#2 - The bigger question is, is there a better way to build a championship team? This is a much tougher question. Even if 4 1st round picks for Marner is "good value", are we better just tanking the next 4 years and building up high picks?

It's a tough decision for sure.

I absolutely love Marner and think he's a full on star. The idea of getting him for nothing except cap space and a bunch of picks down the road that probably won't do anything for 3-7 years is too tempting to pass up. I would do it.

 

[Hit the post]

I think it's 100% guaranteed that the leafs instantly match any offer around 10M. I think we have to get the offer up to around 12M before they even blink.

Now there's really two questions about giving up 4 1st round picks for Marner.

#1 - Is Marner worth more than 4 1st round picks? In my mind, 100% absolutely. Marner is a proven, young, elite talent. He's a gamebreaker. The chance that anyone in those 4 1sts becomes anywhere near Marner is pretty slim, especially since once we add Marner we'll be a significantly better team and our 1st round picks won't be very high.

x-Pettersson-Boeser
x-Horvat-Marner

Is the kind of forward core that can make a serious run at a cup.

#2 - The bigger question is, is there a better way to build a championship team? This is a much tougher question. Even if 4 1st round picks for Marner is "good value", are we better just tanking the next 4 years and building up high picks?

It's a tough decision for sure.

I absolutely love Marner and think he's a full on star. The idea of getting him for nothing except cap space and a bunch of picks down the road that probably won't do anything for 3-7 years is too tempting to pass up. I would do it.

Meh. We didn’t remotely make a serious cup run when we had arguably the most lethal scoring line in the NHL (WCE) and guys like Ohlund, Salo & Jovocop on the blueline.

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

The only player that is worth 4 1st round picks is McDavid

 

[Canucks LB]

The only player that is worth 4 1st round picks is McDavid

Marner is worth 4 1sts
Guy is nuts

 

[VC]

The Canucks have enough core pieces to give up that many picks. The have to build up assets first. Teams on the cusp should look into moves like that, not teams fumbling at the bottom.

Couldn't see why Marner would sign here in the first place. He would be able to get big money from better teams.

 

[y2kcanucks]

What are the chances the Canucks could land Marner with one of the following offer sheet offers.

10 million per year - 2 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd
Over 10.2ish - 4 1sts

Given that we will MOST likely not be a bottom 10 team next year and will almost certainly be a playoff team the year after and continue on an upward trajectory, would you consider making one of these offers to land him? I would not hesitate to offer 10 million per year to him and would be VERY tempted to offer in the 12-14 range and cough up the 4 1sts. The chances of the 4 firsts equaling his points totals given the likely chance they are mid to late round firsts are not good.

If you do not agree with my analysis of the Canucks likely-hood of moving up in the standings over the next 1-5 years kindly STAY OUT OF THIS THREAD. Keep this conversation to the Marner v picks analysis please and thank you.

Hugs.

The Canucks will MOST likely be a bottom 10 team next year. The year after...that will depend on who is our GM.

Based on that, I would not consider offer sheeting Marner. First of all, your first suggestion of $10M per year might not even be enough for Marner to sign with us. Secondly, even if he did it would certainly be matched immediately by the Leafs.

If you want to sign Marner successfully you're probably looking at something closer to $13M. Given where the Canucks are, giving up 4 first round picks is not what we should be doing. Marner is a great player, don't get me wrong. I'd love to have him on the team, but the Canucks could just as easily get a player as good as Marner with their 1st round pick in 2020 and still have 3 more 1st rounders in future years.

 

[y2kcanucks]

These players don't come along often (understatement)..... and no guarantees with what we get out of those picks... Marner is as much of a sure thing as anyone else in the league. A player like that without having to lose any roster players? I think I do it for sure. My only concern is that we put ourselves in the same cap hell that would have forced Toronto to let him go in the first place.

But thats cool, when Gillis returns with his cap guru back in the fold things will be just fine once again in Canuck Nation.

I would be absolutely happy with trying to work out a trade for Marner, but 4 first round picks from a bad team that doesn't have top end prospect depth, while also paying the player over $11M is excessive. We would have a great player surrounded by a couple other good players and a bunch of junk. Try to come up with a trade for him.