Speculation: Marner Mega-Thread: Part I

[FourRings]

With Skinner getting 9 and some of the recent signings, he is fair value at 11, at 12.5 it's 1.5 prime in order to land him and I'd gladly give up 4 1sts for him

That's McDavid money and Marner isn't McDavid.

Leafs should take those 4 1st rounders, try to sign Karlsson and flip the picks into a high end mercenary.

 

[Doublechin]

That's McDavid money and Marner isn't McDavid. Leafs should take those 4 1st rounders, sign Karlsson and flip the picks into a high end mercenary.

I don't care, I would pay a shit ton for a 90 point player that's in his early 20's

 

[FourRings]

I don't care, I would pay a **** ton for a 90 point player that's in his early 20's

I understand where you're coming from, but I guess how much you'd be willing to pay is influenced by the current players on your favorite team's roster.

 

[LastWordArmy]

Unless the compensation is 4 1sts, they are matching...or trading before an offersheet.

They can match. It just sets them up for a second difficult negotiation (or trade) at some point during the length of the contract. That would be a route a divisional rival might take.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

That is easier said than done considering his contract vs last year’s results. If you had another year to sign Marner you would benefit from a recovery season from Nylander but you don’t. The Leafs are in a bad place with no easy answer besides sell low on a handful of players soon.

Unlike HFers, most GMs can piece together the rarity of two 60+ point seasons by 21 years age and realize he missed a chunk of last season. They also probably saw him at the Worlds.

 

[FourRings]

Unlike HFers, most GMs can piece together the rarity of two 60+ point seasons by 21 years age and realize he missed a chunk of last season. They also probably saw him at the Worlds.

Still doesn’t get you full value. Thus “selling low”.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Look the Zaitsev doesn't get a 5 year contract with 4.5 of he was a free agent right now -

Leafs would have to eat some salary to make a move by why do that - Just keep him and try find another way to sort the cap problem.

Maybe, maybe not. Probably priced a little high but you also have to take into account a few things.

He is UFA aged. His contract holds for another 5 years and its % vs the cap goes down every year. There are 177 UFA aged d-men (NHL Numbers). 83 of those are UFA this year. 130/177 are UFA by end of next year.

There are 274 d men 26 and under. 18 make more than him. All told he sits tied for 65th highest paid d-man, though again is UFA and locked in so unlike many others, his hit % goes down every year for 5 more years. Being paid as a #3 so slightly high but I doubt the Leafs would eat much if any salary.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Still doesn’t get you full value. Thus “selling low”.

Still has no bearing on the fact they upgraded the team.

 

[FourRings]

Still has no bearing on the fact they upgraded the team.

Except they haven't upgraded the team. They're trying to upgrade it and time will tell if they're even able to maintain it as is. Being unable to get what most TML fans would think is fair-value for Nylander only exacerbates the problem which is what I think @A Pointed Stick was getting at with his post.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Except they haven't upgraded the team. They're trying to upgrade it and time will tell if they're even able to maintain it as is. Being unable to get what most TML fans would think is fair-value for Nylander only exacerbates the problem which is what I think @A Pointed Stick was getting at with his post.

If they got even a semi decent d-man, they upgrade. They already upgraded the forward position. They'd have to take quite a step back on the trade front to negate that and knowing NHL GMs, I doubt they take that far of a step. Heck even if Nylander was gone entirely with no return they've upgraded. That isn't a knock on Nylander, it just says they added Tavares with no asset cost.

 

[dubplatepressure]

A riddle wrapped in a mystery wrapped in an enigma. In aggregate he's a massive positive influence on a team, but his bad is baaaad.

This playoff he was clearly playing well under 100% and probably should have been scratched.

All so true

 

[bobholly39]

That's McDavid money and Marner isn't McDavid.

Leafs should take those 4 1st rounders, try to sign Karlsson and flip the picks into a high end mercenary.

McDavid money doesnt exist anymore

That was 2 years ago. The league finances change greatly in 2 years

Many players today if ufa or rfa could command 12.5M or more. It doesnt make them more valuable than McDavid - just supply and demand of current year with salaries continually on the rise

For the rest of the post i dont disagree. 4 1sts is a lot and definitely worth considering if an offer sheet ends up happening. Depends on amount

 

[SI]

Maybe, maybe not. Probably priced a little high but you also have to take into account a few things.

He is UFA aged. His contract holds for another 5 years and its % vs the cap goes down every year. There are 177 UFA aged d-men (NHL Numbers). 83 of those are UFA this year. 130/177 are UFA by end of next year.

There are 274 d men 26 and under. 18 make more than him. All told he sits tied for 65th highest paid d-man, though again is UFA and locked in so unlike many others, his hit % goes down every year for 5 more years. Being paid as a #3 so slightly high but I doubt the Leafs would eat much if any salary.

I guess we'll find out since he just asked to be traded.

I can't see how Leafs don't take salary back and now have 5 blueline spots to fill.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

I guess we'll find out since he just asked to be traded.

I can't see how Leafs don't take salary back and now have 5 blueline spots to fill.

How do they have 5 blueline spots to fill?

 

[Riellyfan04]

So dubas says him and mitch having healthy productive talks. Dreger again looking like an idiot...

 

[Bigmarycombo]

The Leafs would be absolutely stupid not to take the 4 1st round picks and drive him to the airport if someone offers him that.

For shitz and giggles

Let’s look at the islanders offering that to marner

They lose 4 firsts but those first will all be in the late 20’s. not one of those firsts would ever become as good as marner. Maybe one of them actually makes it to the NHL

Marner would instantly make the islanders cup contenders
And be their best player.

 

[hector morrison]

So dubas says him and mitch having healthy productive talks. Dreger again looking like an idiot...

Wishy- washy Dreger is desperate to be valid again.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

For ****z and giggles

Let’s look at the islanders offering that to marner

They lose 4 firsts but those first will all be in the late 20’s. not one of those firsts would ever become as good as marner. Maybe one of them actually makes it to the NHL

Marner would instantly make the islanders cup contenders
And be their best player.

I admire your confidence.

 

[A Pointed Stick]

Unlike HFers, most GMs can piece together the rarity of two 60+ point seasons by 21 years age and realize he missed a chunk of last season. They also probably saw him at the Worlds.

GMs are also aware of Toronto’s cap woes. No one is lining up to do Shanahan any favors. There is also the matter of Nylander’s contract. So far he isn’t earning it. Many players didn't Live up to their contract. GMs know this. HF board members know this. Results are all that matter and the day World’s or any of the other fun competitions matter to actual NHL results is the day a second moon pops out of the ocean.

 

[Americanadian]

Marner for Makar+4OA?

 

[A Pointed Stick]

For ****z and giggles

Let’s look at the islanders offering that to marner

They lose 4 firsts but those first will all be in the late 20’s. not one of those firsts would ever become as good as marner. Maybe one of them actually makes it to the NHL

Marner would instantly make the islanders cup contenders
And be their best player.

I agree but it doesn’t have to be the Islanders. It is any team already making the playoffs. If you think your next 4 1sts are in the 20s why not go for it?

 

[Amadeus]

Marner for Makar+4OA?

Maker and Dach...tempting, but no.

 

[Skin Tape Session]

By that same token...just looking at the playoffs....what is Gardiner?

Gardnier is what he is, great advanced stats over his career, can play top four. Great when he's great, bad when he's bad. Needs a fresh start. I fully expect once he pulls on a different jersey he will be universally loved around here

 

[Tripod]

Gardnier is what he is, great advanced stats over his career, can play top four. Great when he's great, bad when he's bad. Needs a fresh start. I fully expect once he pulls on a different jersey he will be universally loved around here

Not if he keeps looking like ASS in important games.

Personally, I think he does have lots of games where he looks great...then does 1-2 just awful decisions that kills the games.

 

[Skin Tape Session]

Not if he keeps looking like ASS in important games.

Personally, I think he does have lots of games where he looks great...then does 1-2 just awful decisions that kills the games.

I'll say this, if he was willing to take four mil at three years I'd put up with the warts, he won't be worth what he gets in term and dollars July 1st