Speculation: Marner Mega-Thread: Part I

[LT]

All Marner discussion belongs here.

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[4thline]

Let any interested party talk to Marner now.
Sit firm on offers of ~10-10.5x6 and 10.5-11 by 7 or 8 years. The only reason you move on that is to add a slight premium on a 6 year to avoid a 10.6 x 5 offer sheet. If anyone is topping that try and find a deal that both teams prefer to 4x1sts prior to the draft. If no deal can be found sit on him and let the other team make their OS move. Leave enough money for a 2-3 year bridge in case no other team can make a long term deal happen.

 

[Toby Flenderson]

I would think the leafs would prefer a trade instead of 4 x 1sts. Adding Marner to any team makes them way more likely to make playoffs which means the picks are most likely in the second half of the draft.

Trade him to Colorado for 4th OA, Barrie, and Kaut.

That will give them 3 players that are basically guaranteed better than anyone they’d take in the 20’s of the draft.

 

[Lockin17]

Habs will give 4 first round picks to get Marner at 12 mil x 8 years without thinking it twice

 

[justafan22]

I would think the leafs would prefer a trade instead of 4 x 1sts. Adding Marner to any team makes them way more likely to make playoffs which means the picks are most likely in the second half of the draft.

Trade him to Colorado for 4th OA, Barrie, and Kaut.

That will give them 3 players that are basically guaranteed better than anyone they’d take in the 20’s of the draft.

If Barrie comes with an extension (or is open to signing a decent deal) I'd probably do that.

 

[4thline]

I would think the leafs would prefer a trade instead of 4 x 1sts. Adding Marner to any team makes them way more likely to make playoffs which means the picks are most likely in the second half of the draft.

Trade him to Colorado for 4th OA, Barrie, and Kaut.

That will give them 3 players that are basically guaranteed better than anyone they’d take in the 20’s of the draft.

Both teams likely would. Hypothetical OS team is adding 11-12 million in cap, there's probably a roster player they want to send back. That and the value of 4x1st's is hugely volatile, people overrate the consistency of teams over a 4 year span.

 

[Jigger77]

Habs will give 4 first round picks to get Marner at 12 mil x 8 years without thinking it twice

Doubt it.

 

[StreetHawk]

All contracts are for future years. What a player has done so far is what you use as a basis of how comfortable you can be that the player will perform at in the future.

Is Marner projected now to be a 90 plus point guy over the term of this upcoming contract? Can he be a 100 point guy or more?

He’s done well enough on his elc to give you that confidence.

Now you have to determine what his expected production will be and pay accordingly.

He has 4 years left til UFA when he is 26, like Trouba can be if he ends up taking a 1 year deal to get there. But that put most in the risk on Trouba.

I think Marner would give 1-2 ufa years so that he can hit ufa at 27 or 28. That will still set him up to land a max term deal when he’s a ufa. You want to maintain the leverage enough that when teams are competing for your services that they will do that extra year on the contract that takes you to 35/36.

 

[Liferleafer]

Habs will give 4 first round picks to get Marner at 12 mil x 8 years without thinking it twice

And when Dubas signs Marner for less...this site will erupt in a Dubas way overpaid Marner narrative.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't think Colorado does Barrie, pick #4 and Kaut for Marner, but I do think they'd do something around pick #4 and other young players/futures for Marner. Maybe they can make it some massive deal, something like Kadri and Marner's RFA rights to Colorado for Johnson, Jost, Kaut and pick #4.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Habs will give 4 first round picks to get Marner at 12 mil x 8 years without thinking it twice

Only the Leafs can offer 8 years Montreal can only offer 7, also OS averages are devided by 5 years so yhe cap hit would actually be 16.8

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I don't think Colorado does Barrie, pick #4 and Kaut for Marner, but I do think they'd do something around pick #4 and other young players/futures for Marner. Maybe they can make it some massive deal, something like Kadri and Marner's RFA rights to Colorado for Johnson, Jost, Kaut and pick #4.

That's awful for Toronto

 

[shylock104]

If Rangers give up 2, 20, Hajek and maybe Buchnevich I could see the Leafs moving Marner, though I doubt the Rangers would do it

 

[Empoleon8771]

That's awful for Toronto

How is it awful for Toronto? Do you seriously think Marner is going to be traded for more than what his offer-sheet would be? Marner's offer-sheet would be 4 future 1sts. If the Leafs are demanding a return more than that for Marner, teams will just offer-sheet him.

I like how Marner isn't worth even within $2.5 million of Matthews to some Leafs fans, but other Leafs fans act like Marner's RFA rights are insanely valuable.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

And when Dubas signs Marner for less...this site will erupt in a Dubas way overpaid Marner narrative.

What history does Dubas have in signing players less than market value? Pause. Oh ok. None. Glad you agree.

 

[Echo Roku]

How high do Leafs fans think the team can reasonably match before they say f it?

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

PHIL KESSEL
was traded for two first round picks (Dougie Hamilton and Tyler Seguin) plus a second round pick.

MITCH MARNER
Leafs can either:
Sign him and enjoy this fantastic player on their roster for another 5 -8 years
or
Choose not to sign him, after he signs a maximum offer sheet unicorn, and receive:
* 4 first round, non lottery protected, draft picks (ask Ottawa if they think this is a good idea)
* Have millions of cap space to spend

Seems like a win/win for the Leafs.
I hope they have problems like this every year.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

How high do Leafs fans think the team can reasonably match before they say f it?

Up until the compensation is 4 firsts.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

How is it awful for Toronto? Do you seriously think Marner is going to be traded for more than what his offer-sheet would be?

I like how Marner isn't worth even within $2.5 million of Matthews to some Leafs fans, but other Leafs fans act like Marner's RFA rights are insanely valuable.

I don't think Marner is being traded at all.

Doesn't change the fact that Jost does not = Kadri and chances are the 4th overall does not = Marner and Johnson certainly doesn't

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't think Marner is being traded at all.

Doesn't change the fact that Jost does not = Kadri and chances are the 4th overall does not = Marner and Johnson certainly doesn't

The trade is Johnson for Kadri and Jost, Kaut and the #4 pick for Marner. If you think Marner is going to bring back more than that in a trade, I've got a bridge to sell you.

 

[cslebn]

PHIL KESSEL
was traded for two first round picks (Dougie Hamilton and Tyler Seguin) plus a second round pick.

MITCH MARNER
Leafs can either:
Sign him and enjoy this fantastic player on their roster for another 5 -8 years
or
Choose not to sign him, after he signs a maximum offer sheet unicorn, and receive:
* 4 first round, non lottery protected, draft picks (ask Ottawa if they think this is a good idea)
* Have millions of cap space to spend

Seems like a win/win for the Leafs.
I hope they have problems like this every year.

Now if only you weren't missing an option here for Marner and the fact that Dan Ferris has had multiple clients hold out for more money before.

 

[JT Kreider]

If Rangers give up 2, 20, Hajek and maybe Buchnevich I could see the Leafs moving Marner, though I doubt the Rangers would do it

No dice. The #2 pick is off the table, and we could still put together a strong offer, headlined by KA Miller/Skjei/DeAngelo, Andersson, the Jets pick and a 2020 1st.

With the idea of Miller being one of the best prospects being offered to the Leafs. Or Skjei to immediately shore up their top 4, or Tony D filling the huge need of an offensive RHD.

 

[4thline]

How high do Leafs fans think the team can reasonably match before they say f it?

Depends on term.
His single best comparable is Kane at a cap adjusted 9.2x5. We've shown willingness to pay top dollar, add 500k to 9.7 x 5. We need a 6th year to cover Tavares, call it 10.2x6. If pushed I can see us going to the ~11 x 7 or 8 range.

If July 1 comes and goes without a contract signed and no other team is in the sandbox I think it gets pulled back to ~9.5x6, 10 x 7, 10.5 x 8.

 

[Echo Roku]

Up until the compensation is 4 firsts.

Which is like 7.55 mil over 7 years if I remember correctly

I imagine they match that

 

[Brunomics]

No dice. The #2 pick is off the table, and we could still put together a strong offer, headlined by KA Miller/Skjei/DeAngelo, Andersson, the Jets pick and a 2020 1st.

At that point why not just do the offer sheet? You are taking away players that will help your team and Marner currently and the near future for unknown future players that would most likely be picked from the #15 on.