Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part IV

[Throw More Waffles]

I agree with your premise but there's better options to divest rather than a top player at his age and position.

There is a line somewhere though, right?

If the leafs had 3 additional players who all scored 90 points last year, would they give all of them 11 mil each (70% of cap ceiling for 6 players ) and use the remaining 30% on the other 18 players?

At some point, a team has too much cap space tied up in ridiculously expensive star players. I’d argue the leafs are right at that line. They can make it work with a very good contract... but if it’s another completely unprecedented overpayment, I think it would hurt the team to sign Marner more than it would help.

Has there ever been a team with 40% of the cap tied up on three star forwards?

 

[Ziggdiezan]

That's a terrible strategy with an unbelievably high likelihood of failure.

I'm not advocating for taking the picks..

I dont get why everyone just comments on what they think your trying to saying rather than what the words you typed actually said..

First off I doubt an offersheet happens, likely in part due to what I was trying to describe. I want Marner signed, he is my favorite player. However if he is actually demanding 12.5 million AAV I think a trade would be the best solution. Leafs cannot afford to have 3 forwards making that much. Even if they trade Nylander it will be an insane cap% to spend on 3 players who are all forwards.

 

[Mr Hockey]

To put things in perspective... if Marner gets more than 10 aav, the leafs are paying more for the Matthews/Marner tandem than Oilers are spending on McDavid/Draisaitl.

Matthews/Marner last year: 63 goals/167 points
McDavid/Draisaityl last year: 91 goals/217 points. What a joke.

Dubas kind of messed the salary structure for the league with the big Matthews overpayment, he basically helped bump all those elite RFA's new contracts by a couple of mil AAV.

 

[kb]

That's a terrible strategy with an unbelievably high likelihood of failure.

Not as high of a likelihood as signing Marner to a horribly inflated contract. That's a terrible strategy.

 

[Bomber0104]

Not as high of a likelihood as signing Marner to a horribly inflated contract. That's a terrible strategy.

We don't even know what the contract is yet. But when you score 94 points, the most in 22 years for this franchise... you're getting paid and that's that.

I don't really get why fans like you so jilted that the guy performed at a ridiculously elite level.

Isn't this what we want?

 

[Stamkos4life]

You know by now my thoughts on what “actual production” is, and ice time is important imo. So no reason to go there.

You don’t pay a player based on how they produced in the past, you pay based on how you think they’ll perform when you put them on the ice for the duration of the contract. The whole “he’s a playoff performer” mantra is a classic fallacy on judging a player. I don’t put any stock in very small samples.

I bet the vast majority of fans prefer total points in a season so I’m not sure why you want a poll. But those who are interested in being accurate and not just fuming their frustrations on the internet will be looking at scoring rates.

So, to clarify, you dont think players are given more money if they have preformed well in the post season?

Malkin was made the 2nd highest paid player after eclipsing 100 points and having a very strong post season. As well he came 2nd in league scoring.

Matthews was made the 2nd highest paid player after 73 points in 68 games (88 point pace) and a decent post season.

You see the difference right? One was paid based on actual accomplishments. The other was not.

"Edit: can you name 1 player who was made the 2nd highest paid player in the league after a career high of 73 points? Or with no major awards to their name? Or no deep run into the post season? I can only think of 1."

So Malkin had a career high of 106 (33 more than auston) and had a deep run in the post season where he was over ppg.

Matthews is the only player to be made the 2nd highest paid after a career high of 73 points and no great post season.

The poll idea was to simply make clear the fact that you are in the extreme minority. If that doesn't matter to you than cool.

 

[Bomber0104]

I'm not advocating for taking the picks..

I dont get why everyone just comments on what they think your trying to saying rather than what the words you typed actually said..

First off I doubt an offersheet happens, likely in part due to what I was trying to describe. I want Marner signed, he is my favorite player. However if he is actually demanding 12.5 million AAV I think a trade would be the best solution. Leafs cannot afford to have 3 forwards making that much. Even if they trade Nylander it will be an insane cap% to spend on 3 players who are all forwards.

Luckily the Leafs aren't really in a huge rush to make hasty decisions.

There's a perfectly plausible and likely scenario where the Leafs pay Marner based on what he's done, and give him and Nylander another season to evaluate before deciding on which one to keep.

If Nylander outperforms his contract at $7M, then that could spell Marner's end with this team. However if Nylander doesn't and he still hovers around the 50-60 point range, then it's an easy decision to trade him.

I agree with the premise that Leafs are spending too much on their top players though.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Or traded. It’s not Dubas fault Marner is greedy.

right?

 

[Stamkos4life]

Arvidsson p1/60 5v5: 1.4
Nylander p1/60 5v5: 1.5

Arvidsson p1/60 PP: 1.32
Nylander p1/60 PP: 4.95

At the least, Nylander slightly out-produced Arvidsson by about 6%, and Arvidsson is a black hold on the PP, whereas Nylander is substantially better. Arvidsson was not considered an option on the PP at the time he signed his contract (and hasn't improved...)

Arvidsson had 2nd unit PK for one of those seasons.

Nylander 2 years younger in this sample.

Arvidsson signed for 35% less than Nylander.

Yea, seems about right for the cost of a much better offensive talent

Are these stats from the time they joined the league until they signed?

5v5 production trumps pp production.

Nylander had the advantage of playing with auston matthews for the majority of his ice time. Who was arvidsson playing with?

2.75 mil seems high to me when you take into account that arvidsson scores more goals than nylander and wasnt playing with a franchise center man.

Marner is a year younger than nylander.

Marner plays on the pk.

Marner had a career high of 94 points and 26 goals. Nylander's is 61 and 22.

Marner took the other teams top lines during his 94 point campaign.

So you have no problem with marner at 10-11 mil, correct?

Nith is lucky to have you fight his battles for him lol

 

[Joey Hoser]

So, to clarify, you dont think players are given more money if they have preformed well in the post season?

Malkin was made the 2nd highest paid player after eclipsing 100 points and having a very strong post season. As well he came 2nd in league scoring.

Matthews was made the 2nd highest paid player after 73 points in 68 games (88 point pace) and a decent post season.

You see the difference right? One was paid based on actual accomplishments. The other was not.

"Edit: can you name 1 player who was made the 2nd highest paid player in the league after a career high of 73 points? Or with no major awards to their name? Or no deep run into the post season? I can only think of 1."

So Malkin had a career high of 106 (33 more than auston) and had a deep run in the post season where he was over ppg.

Matthews is the only player to be made the 2nd highest paid after a career high of 73 points and no great post season.

The poll idea was to simply make clear the fact that you are in the extreme minority. If that doesn't matter to you than cool.

You can't keep repeating "73" points as if you don't know if he is any better than that. Playing dumb doesn't work in negotiations.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Luckily the Leafs aren't really in a huge rush to make hasty decisions.

There's a perfectly plausible and likely scenario where the Leafs pay Marner based on what he's done, and give him and Nylander another season to evaluate before deciding on which one to keep.

If Nylander outperforms his contract at $7M, then that could spell Marner's end with this team. However if Nylander doesn't and he still hovers around the 50-60 point range, then it's an easy decision to trade him.

I agree with the premise that Leafs are spending too much on their top players though.

All very reasonable.

I feel like we start the season with both Marner and Nylander a leaf to be honest. I see Kap being traded possibly Kadri if a good 3C can be obtained too. Dubas is a pretty nice guy it seems so I see him trying to honor Zaitsev's request for trade too.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Are these stats from the time they joined the league until they signed?

5v5 production trumps pp production.

Nylander had the advantage of playing with auston matthews for the majority of his ice time. Who was arvidsson playing with?

2.75 mil seems high to me when you take into account that arvidsson scores more goals than nylander and wasnt playing with a franchise center man.

Marner is a year younger than nylander.

Marner plays on the pk.

Marner had a career high of 94 points and 26 goals. Nylander's is 61 and 22.

Marner took the other teams top lines.

So you have no problem with marner at 10-11 mil, correct?

Nith is lucky to have you fight his battles for him lol

Some good points. However Marner played primarily in the middle 6 his first two seasons on the Kadri or Bozak line. I would imagine Matthews (and Nylander) had a higher QoC those first two years.

After JT came that all changed but Marner certainly wasnt facing top competition consistently in relation to Nylander his first two seasons.

 

[Stamkos4life]

You can't keep repeating "73" points as if you don't know if he is any better than that. Playing dumb doesn't work in negotiations.

What do you mean by "as if you don't know if he is any better than that."?

You think Matthew's is better than an 88 point player? (His pace)

Or that he will get better?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

You can't keep repeating "73" points as if you don't know if he is any better than that. Playing dumb doesn't work in negotiations.

Quite literally everybody correctly predicted that MacKinnon would be WAY better than his elc numbers suggested. He still signed based on his actual accomplishments. That’s what happens FAR more often than dramatic overpayments in the hopes that the player may one day become elite. Most especially if there were numerous injury problems along the way.

 

[Notsince67]

A lot of the same individuals that were calling Nylander names (like Melander) and were going crazy about overpaying him are in this thread right now talking about Marner getting and deserving Matthews insanely bad contract and justifying matching 11M+ offersheets

Some people have been consistent on our contract overpayments but that's the minority not the majority

Maybe you should hold off on your condemnation until after Marner becomes an RFA. You were the biggest diva regarding people speculating on Nylander and this was after the season started.

 

[Stamkos4life]

Some good points. However Marner played primarily in the middle 6 his first two seasons on the Kadri or Bozak line. I would imagine Matthews (and Nylander) had a higher QoC those first two years.

After JT came that all changed but Marner certainly wasnt facing top competition consistently in relation to Nylander his first two seasons.

I agree.

I edited my post to reflect that he took the top competition during his 94 point season.

Thanks for that!

 

[Joey Hoser]

What do you mean by "as if you don't know if he is any better than that."?

You think Matthew's is better than an 88 point player? (His pace)

Or that he will get better?

Yes, And he's the best goal scorer in the league not named Ovechkin. You don't agree?

 

[Gabriel426]

There is a line somewhere though, right?

If the leafs had 3 additional players who all scored 90 points last year, would they give all of them 11 mil each (70% of cap ceiling for 6 players ) and use the remaining 30% on the other 18 players?

At some point, a team has too much cap space tied up in ridiculously expensive star players. I’d argue the leafs are right at that line. They can make it work with a very good contract... but if it’s another completely unprecedented overpayment, I think it would hurt the team to sign Marner more than it would help.

Has there ever been a team with 40% of the cap tied up on three star forwards?

Pretty sure Pens did when Sid and Geno signed their deal in the beginning.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

So, to clarify, you dont think players are given more money if they have preformed well in the post season?

Malkin was made the 2nd highest paid player after eclipsing 100 points and having a very strong post season. As well he came 2nd in league scoring.

Matthews was made the 2nd highest paid player after 73 points in 68 games (88 point pace) and a decent post season.

You see the difference right? One was paid based on actual accomplishments. The other was not.

"Edit: can you name 1 player who was made the 2nd highest paid player in the league after a career high of 73 points? Or with no major awards to their name? Or no deep run into the post season? I can only think of 1."

So Malkin had a career high of 106 (33 more than auston) and had a deep run in the post season where he was over ppg.

Matthews is the only player to be made the 2nd highest paid after a career high of 73 points and no great post season.

The poll idea was to simply make clear the fact that you are in the extreme minority. If that doesn't matter to you than cool.

You keep saying the same shit over and over, just give it up. No I don’t think you can just compare total points of two players and ignore ice time, that’s just common sense.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Yes, And he's the best goal scorer in the league not named Ovechkin. You don't agree?

He has scored at a higher rate than Ovechkin during their respective ELCs btw.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Are these stats from the time they joined the league until they signed?

5v5 production trumps pp production.

Nylander had the advantage of playing with auston matthews for the majority of his ice time. Who was arvidsson playing with?

2.75 mil seems high to me when you take into account that arvidsson scores more goals than nylander and wasnt playing with a franchise center man.

Marner is a year younger than nylander.

Marner plays on the pk.

Marner had a career high of 94 points and 26 goals. Nylander's is 61 and 22.

Marner took the other teams top lines during his 94 point campaign.

So you have no problem with marner at 10-11 mil, correct?

Nith is lucky to have you fight his battles for him lol

5v5 doesn’t trump production it gets considered alongside it when determining offensive value. Marner at 10x8 would be a good deal for both sides.

 

[Notsince67]

There is a line somewhere though, right?

If the leafs had 3 additional players who all scored 90 points last year, would they give all of them 11 mil each (70% of cap ceiling for 6 players ) and use the remaining 30% on the other 18 players?

At some point, a team has too much cap space tied up in ridiculously expensive star players. I’d argue the leafs are right at that line. They can make it work with a very good contract... but if it’s another completely unprecedented overpayment, I think it would hurt the team to sign Marner more than it would help.

Has there ever been a team with 40% of the cap tied up on three star forwards?

In your estimation, how much should Marner get paid?

I'm not advocating for taking the picks..

I dont get why everyone just comments on what they think your trying to saying rather than what the words you typed actually said..

First off I doubt an offersheet happens, likely in part due to what I was trying to describe. I want Marner signed, he is my favorite player. However if he is actually demanding 12.5 million AAV I think a trade would be the best solution. Leafs cannot afford to have 3 forwards making that much. Even if they trade Nylander it will be an insane cap% to spend on 3 players who are all forwards.

It is interesting that there are reasonable opinions like your own that draws a hypothetical line to make a point at 12.5MM whereas the known haters generally will hover around 9-10MM as their trigger points. I can agree with you on principal yet it is a very different opinion than what others are stating in the Nylander fanclub

 

[MyBudJT]

There is a line somewhere though, right?

If the leafs had 3 additional players who all scored 90 points last year, would they give all of them 11 mil each (70% of cap ceiling for 6 players ) and use the remaining 30% on the other 18 players?

At some point, a team has too much cap space tied up in ridiculously expensive star players. I’d argue the leafs are right at that line. They can make it work with a very good contract... but if it’s another completely unprecedented overpayment, I think it would hurt the team to sign Marner more than it would help.

Has there ever been a team with 40% of the cap tied up on three star forwards?

There is a line somewhere, but we aren't there yet. Not even close.

Marner has been nothing but spectacular during his ELC years for his age. Its mind boggling to me how so many people here are trying to diminish what he's done, and what he will become.

Maybe not, but there are some very close. Without looking very hard:

2009/2010 Penguins (Malkin's first post-ELC year): 21.4/56.8M cap (38%)
Malkin(8.7M)
Crosby(8.7M)
Staal(4M)

2010/2011 Capitals : 22.24 /59.4M cap (37.5%)
Ovechkin(9.54)
Backstrom (6.7)
Semin (6)

2015/2016 Blackhawks: 26.275 /71.4 (37%)
Kane: 10.5
Toews: 10.5
Hossa: 5.275

 

[Throw More Waffles]

In your estimation, how much should Marner get paid?

It is interesting that there are reasonable opinions like your own that draws a hypothetical line to make a point at 12.5MM whereas the known haters generally will hover around 9-10MM as their trigger points. I can agree with you on principal yet it is a very different opinion than what others are stating in the Nylander fanclub

Considering what Kucherov signed for as a ufa producing far more points... and what Kane signed for cominng off his elc with VERY similar numbers to Marner...
somewhere between 11 and 12% of the cap, depending on term.

That's not merely what I think. That's what a very VERY clear precedent states. Anything higher than that would be flat out unprecedented.

I thought Shanahan specifically said that the leafs wouldn't "set the market"? What a colossal failure this has been.

 

[Kiwi]

Maybe you should hold off on your condemnation until after Marner becomes an RFA. You were the biggest diva regarding people speculating on Nylander and this was after the season started.

Everybody was speculating on Nylander and I speculated on almost every rumoured contract number that came up, I just had enough brains to say I didn't trust those numbers

Just like I've said I'm highly doubtful about the 12.5M number and don't really trust the Marner demanding Matthews contract number either, I did however state what I'd do if that was true

You crack me up, still a little butt hurt are we?