Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part IV

[Ziggdiezan]

Anaheim, St Louis, Tampa Bay, Nashville, New York (Islanders), New York (Rangers), Chicago, Los Angeles, Washington, Minnesota, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Calgary, Boston, San Jose, and if you're counting Las Vegas that would be a 16th team over the past 4 drafts. I omitted them because they only have 2 seasons of result thus far.

A lottery pick is a top-5 selection...

Ah okay well I think they were referring to a lottery pick as a pick that has a chance at 1st overall which any pick does for non playoff teams.

 

[Bomber0104]

that's not the point. The point the other poster was making that it is more likely that the "good team" wont make the playoffs 4 years in a row. That is all, nothing about being as good as marner at all. Nobody has said "with one of those 4 picks we could get a marner".

Actually that is exactly the point. Who cares about whether that team makes the playoffs? What we're interested in is where their own 1st round picks land. And as you can see in the above table, they haven't landed in great positions.

Again there is nothing stopping us offering 4 1st round picks for a dman is there? that dman would be pretty ****ing good

Then why not trade him directly to a team?

If there's two teams that would pay 4 1st round picks, now there's a bidding war.

Statistical aberrations? 4 teams out of 31 have been in the playoffs in all of the last 4 years.

15 teams haven't picked in the top-five position over the past 4 drafts.

That stat is meaningful.

Yours means next to nothing.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Are you really going to avoid my question about whether or not you agree marner is worth 10-11 mil? You're better then that.

It's simple. If you honestly think nylander is worth ~2.75 mil more than arvidsson, then you should have no issue with marner at 10-11mil.

If you cant answer my question then I guess our conversation is done.

Arvidsson p1/60 5v5: 1.4
Nylander p1/60 5v5: 1.5

Arvidsson p1/60 PP: 1.32
Nylander p1/60 PP: 4.95

At the least, Nylander slightly out-produced Arvidsson by about 6%, and Arvidsson is a black hold on the PP, whereas Nylander is substantially better. Arvidsson was not considered an option on the PP at the time he signed his contract (and hasn't improved...)

Arvidsson had 2nd unit PK for one of those seasons.

Nylander 2 years younger in this sample.

Arvidsson signed for 35% less than Nylander.

Yea, seems about right for the cost of a much better offensive talent

 

[Walshy7]

Actually that is exactly the point. Who cares about whether that team makes the playoffs? What we're interested in is where their own 1st round picks land. And as you can see in the above table, they haven't landed in great positions.



Then why not trade him directly to a team?

If there's two teams that would pay 4 1st round picks, now there's a bidding war.



15 teams haven't picked in the top-five position over the past 4 drafts.

That stat is meaningful.

Yours means next to nothing.

Ok mate. Not my stat just letting you know what the poster was talking about your reply has 0 relevance to it.

Who will trade for marner if they aren’t sure if he will sign? If he sings an offersheet they know they got him. It’s a pretty simple concept to understand. Unless the team planning an offersheet calls the leafs first and say “I’m gonna offer sheet marner, wanna try and make a trade first?” At which point would you rather trade you top pair rhd or 4x1st? A team rebuilding with a top dman would likely take a bunch of 1sts for their dman that may be too old when they are ready to compete

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Actually that is exactly the point. Who cares about whether that team makes the playoffs? What we're interested in is where their own 1st round picks land. And as you can see in the above table, they haven't landed in great positions.



Then why not trade him directly to a team?

If there's two teams that would pay 4 1st round picks, now there's a bidding war.



15 teams haven't picked in the top-five position over the past 4 drafts.

That stat is meaningful.

Yours means next to nothing.

If a team say has a 2% chance of 1st overall and didnt get it that doesnt change the future probability of that 2% chance of 1st overall for next years team...

If you use your line of thought I would highly recommend never gambling especially roulette.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

It's increadable, the same people that were going crazy about overpaying Nylander now want to give Marner a blank check
Comparables be damned

I haven’t noticed this in the slightest.

For the most part, the posters that were furious over the dramatic overpayments of Nylander and Matthews are also furious at the dramatic overpayment that Marner is allegedly demanding.

And, for the most part, the same posters that were making lame excuses for the dramatic overpayments of Nylander and Matthews are the same people stat mining in support of a Marner dramatic overpayment.

I hope all of this is just hysteria, and Marner ends up signing for fair market value.

 

[4thline]

Actually that is exactly the point. Who cares about whether that team makes the playoffs? What we're interested in is where their own 1st round picks land. And as you can see in the above table, they haven't landed in great positions.

Actually if we want to project value what we're interested in is where the picks slot pre lottery, from there you'd apply lottery odds. Past lottery wins don't change current or future odds.

The point the posters are making is that the "4 late 1st rounders" that fans are signing up to compensate us with are an abnormality.

Your own table shows us that the odds of that return are pretty low, and that there's a good chance that the comp would have significantly more value.

 

[IPS]

It's increadable, the same people that were going crazy about overpaying Nylander now want to give Marner a blank check
Comparables be damned

Monumentally horrible asset management

Unless they seriously believe nylander really is worth a bag of pucks

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Arvidsson p1/60 5v5: 1.4
Nylander p1/60 5v5: 1.5

Arvidsson p1/60 PP: 1.32
Nylander p1/60 PP: 4.95

At the least, Nylander slightly out-produced Arvidsson by about 6%, and Arvidsson is a black hold on the PP, whereas Nylander is substantially better. Arvidsson was not considered an option on the PP at the time he signed his contract (and hasn't improved...)

Arvidsson had 2nd unit PK for one of those seasons.

Nylander 2 years younger in this sample.

Arvidsson signed for 35% less than Nylander.

Yea, seems about right for the cost of a much better offensive talent

You say that Nylander is two years younger, so he should make more. So how come I don’t ever hear anyone say that about Johnsson vs Kapanen? Everybody has them very close in their projections. There just doesn’t seem to be any consistency.

And I’m very curious to see what happens when a leaf player has far better real stats, but lower 5v5 p/60 type stats.

I have a VERY strong feeling that only the REAL stats will matter in such cases. If Marner scores 110 points this year, nobody will consider a 70 point player his equal, no matter what the 5v5 p/60 are. No chance in hell. Everything’s just spun all around to try and rationalize leaf players as being superior to everyone else.

 

[Bomber0104]

If a team say has a 2% chance of 1st overall and didnt get it that doesnt change the future probability of that 2% chance of 1st overall for next years team...

If you use your line of thought I would highly recommend never gambling especially roulette.

Except that's not what I've suggested at all.

 

[Kiwi]

I haven’t noticed this in the slightest.

For the most part, the posters that were furious over the dramatic overpayments of Nylander and Matthews are also furious at the dramatic overpayment that Marner is allegedly demanding.

And, for the most part, the same posters that were making lame excuses for the dramatic overpayments of Nylander and Matthews are the same people stat mining in support of a Marner dramatic overpayment.

I hope all of this is just hysteria, and Marner ends up signing for fair market value.

A lot of the same individuals that were calling Nylander names (like Melander) and were going crazy about overpaying him are in this thread right now talking about Marner getting and deserving Matthews insanely bad contract and justifying matching 11M+ offersheets

Some people have been consistent on our contract overpayments but that's the minority not the majority

 

[ImpartialNHLfan]

I haven’t noticed this in the slightest.

For the most part, the posters that were furious over the dramatic overpayments of Nylander and Matthews are also furious at the dramatic overpayment that Marner is allegedly demanding.

And, for the most part, the same posters that were making lame excuses for the dramatic overpayments of Nylander and Matthews are the same people stat mining in support of a Marner dramatic overpayment.

I hope all of this is just hysteria, and Marner ends up signing for fair market value.

This is what im seeing too. I haven't been posting too much since the horrible Matthews contract, but im sure I will be back to posting once Marner's overpayment is finalized.

 

[Bomber0104]

Actually if we want to project value what we're interested in is where the picks slot pre lottery, from there you'd apply lottery odds. Past lottery wins don't change current or future odds.

The point the posters are making is that the "4 late 1st rounders" that fans are signing up to compensate us with are an abnormality.

Your own table shows us that the odds of that return are pretty low, and that there's a good chance that the comp would have significantly more value.

Not enough value to net a player of Marner's calibre though..

Players that are netted through mid to late 1st's are easier to acquire than a top player at their position and age.

 

[TheDoldrums]

A lottery pick is a top-5 selection...

there are 15 teams in the lottery...

 

[Matthews34]

Marner should be traded. There's no way he was a Leaf fan growing up. It's fake news. If he was he'd have reasonable contract demands and not try to break the bank. I'm not talking about a home team discount but market value. Instead his agent is threatening offer sheets or McDavid money. I've lost all respect for this kid. He's making Willie look like a saint

 

[EXPECT THE LEAFS]

Dubas shit the bed when he caved in with Nylander last minute. Then he shit the bed again with the Matthews deal. And now we have this. Not liking how things are heading with this team to be honest.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

I love how the ire towards someone grows while that person literally doesn't say a single word. It's like a hoard of people getting increasingly angry at a rock. Or on the inverse, it kind reminds me of the Simpsons episode where the rod was lauded as a hero for getting jammed into the door handle of the space shuttle.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Not enough value to net a player of Marner's calibre though..

Players that are netted through mid to late 1st's are easier to acquire than a top player at their position and age.

The leafs would be trading Marner because they don’t have the cap space to build a competitive team around our top 3.

So the leafs wouldn’t want a return of an elite player of Marners caliber for the very reason that they can’t afford an elite player of Marners caliber.

The 11 million ish cap space would be used to fill 3 or 4 areas of weakness, and the four firsts would be used as bait to accomplish that feat.

 

[ACC1224]

I love how the ire towards someone grows while that person literally doesn't say a single word. It's like a hoard of people getting increasingly angry at a rock. Or on the inverse, it kind reminds me of the Simpsons episode where the rod was lauded as a hero for getting jammed into the door handle of the space shuttle.

This for sure.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I love how the ire towards someone grows while that person literally doesn't say a single word. It's like a hoard of people getting increasingly angry at a rock. Or on the inverse, it kind reminds me of the Simpsons episode where the rod was lauded as a hero for getting jammed into the door handle of the space shuttle.

When it comes to Dubas and Simpson’s episodes, I’m more reminded of “Homers Enemy” where Frank Grimes literally loses his mind when so many people defend/make excuses for Homer’s incompetence.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Except that's not what I've suggested at all.

What did you mean by "What matters is what actually happens." when we were talking about the likelyhood of a pick having a chance to be a lottery pick (I.e. outside of playoff finish).

What is important from my statement (about only 4 teams making the playoffs in 4 consecutive years) is that there is a good chance one of those 4 years the team who made the offersheet wont make the playoffs. Therefore that will be a lottery pick with a probability (no matter how low) of grabbing 1st overall.

Teams do not want to be the team who missed a playoff spot by 1 place won the lottery and had to give that 1st overall pick to Toronto.

 

[kb]

It's increadable, the same people that were going crazy about overpaying Nylander now want to give Marner a blank check
Comparables be damned

Even worse, let's try to make a case that he deserves $2-3 MILLION more than someone he finished 34 points behind while playing with one of the most elite C's in the league.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Dubas **** the bed when he caved in with Nylander last minute. Then he **** the bed again with the Matthews deal. And now we have this. Not liking how things are heading with this team to be honest.

To put things in perspective... if Marner gets more than 10 aav, the leafs are paying more for the Matthews/Marner tandem than Oilers are spending on McDavid/Draisaitl.

Matthews/Marner last year: 63 goals/167 points
McDavid/Draisaityl last year: 91 goals/217 points. What a joke.

 

[Bomber0104]

What did you mean by "What matters is what actually happens." when we were talking about the likelyhood of a pick having a chance to be a lottery pick (I.e. outside of playoff finish).

What is important from my statement (about only 4 teams making the playoffs in 4 consecutive years) is that there is a good chance one of those 4 years the team who made the offersheet wont make the playoffs. Therefore that will be a lottery pick with a probability (no matter how low) of grabbing 1st overall.

Teams do not want to be the team who missed a playoff spot by 1 place won the lottery and had to give that 1st overall pick to Toronto.

That's a terrible strategy with an unbelievably high likelihood of failure.

 

[Bomber0104]

The leafs would be trading Marner because they don’t have the cap space to build a competitive team around our top 3.

So the leafs wouldn’t want a return of an elite player of Marners caliber for the very reason that they can’t afford an elite player of Marners caliber.

The 11 million ish cap space would be used to fill 3 or 4 areas of weakness, and the four firsts would be used as bait to accomplish that feat.

I agree with your premise but there's better options to divest rather than a top player at his age and position.