Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVII (continued)

[PromisedLand]

Matthews has played with rookie/sophomore Nylander, rookie/sophomore Hyman, Brown (starting as a rookie), Ennis, 16 goal Marleau, rookie Kapanen, rookie Johnsson, and his linemates got progressively worse (yet he still improved production). He has gotten much harder match-ups throughout his ELC, except for last year, where he got slightly easier match-ups with substantially worse linemates. He has had the #2 PP unit for 2 of the 3 years.

Marner has played with Tavares, 3rd year Hyman, 30+ goal Kadri, 30+ goal JVR, Bozak, 27 goal Marleau, and his linemates got progressively better. He has been on the #1 PP unit all 3 years.


Matthews' first 2 years are way ahead of Marner's first 2 years in almost every way, so I'm not even sure what you're trying to argue.

Matthews has always had the luxury of playing when Marner was in the line up not once had Matthews played in his entire career without Marner in the line up; opposition has to respect both lines so Matthews benefits

Marner has continued to produced even without Matthews in the line up and if it wasn't for Marner Leafs would not have even made the playsoffs for 2017-2018 season.

Marner has led the club in points for 2 consecutive seasons and has posted points that have shown increasing trend. The claim that Nylander in a "sophmore" season means some bottom feeder player is effing ridiculous by that logic McDavid in his 2nd season i.e. "sophmore" season producing means absolutely nothing.

 

[ZEBROA]

I am looking forward to when he signs. Then his family can get out of these threads and spend his money, instead of our time. Off to vacation again...

 

[biotk]

I can say that his low goal production is unsustainable as well.

Marner's 5v5 goals by season:

2016/17 - 15
2017/18 - 14
2018/19 - 16

Nope.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Marner's 5v5 goals by season:

2016/17 - 15
2017/18 - 14
2018/19 - 16

Nope.

Marner may have only scored 16 goals, but surely he was creating tons of chances and drastically under-performed his individual expected goals? oh wait, that would be 12. Since he's not Laine with an elite shot, I'd actually expect it to drop

 

[biotk]

Matthews has always had the luxury of playing when Marner was in the line up not once had Matthews played in his entire career without Marner in the line up; opposition has to respect both lines so Matthews benefits

Huh? Marner missed five games in 2016/17. Matthews had 3 goals, 5 assists, 8 points during those 5 games.

 

[56 Years No Cup]

Leafs Announce Qualifying Offers to Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson, Carcone

Thanks for the link but I don't see the amount/term anywhere.

 

[Notsince67]

No you can't. Point to secondary assists if you need something

Yes i can. You guys make shit up and it is just as likely other things shift. Didnt mention the below average pp p/60 this year either ...compared to other years. While you haters are hoping beyond hope that Marner doesnt make you look like fools yet again, he will hit close to 100 pts if not over

 

[Superstar]

I love the big 3 and want them to succeed but I won't discard my objectivity.

I read the Kane comparison come up a lot (I'm a massive Kane fan) and even though Marner got 94 points last year, I still don't view him as equal to Kane. Marner may have Kane's hockey IQ, but he does not possess the dual-threat capability that Kane has. Marner's an average shooter, whereas Kane has a laser of a wrister that he's deathly accurate with.

Part of the reason our PP went to **** last year is because teams figured Marner out on the right wall, if you take away his tip-pass option and his cross-ice passes, he's very limited. He doesn't have a legitimate shooting threat (especially on the right wall where his angles are limited) to deter defenders from over-committing to his passing options. Mike Babcock's stubbornness obviously doesn't help, but we did figure out Marner can be neutralized on the PP (Boston has done this magnifcantly the past 2 playoffs, and ofc Babcock still refuses to adjust).

I still think people don't quite understand just how much Tavares helped Marner out.

Tavares literally makes the entire team better...I don't think the Leafs would have made the playoffs without Tavares when Matthews was injured.

This is just an example. We all remember this game, right? There's nobody on the team with better hand-eye coordination for tipping and deflecting pucks. It's uncanny.



And from the same game. You would think only Marner could dish out a pass like that the way some folks talk. You see the puck between the legs, but what's less obvious is the exceptional saucer pass over the Detroit defender's stick (otherwise it's blocked) with very little time and right onto Rielly's stick for the goal.



And who could forget this from a couple of years ago if you ever saw it. It's amazing board-work, determination and strength against a very big and strong defensive centre in Couturier. Tavares has been an elite #1 centre in the NHL for the better part of a decade, making every winger he has played with better.

 

[Notsince67]

Marner's 5v5 goals by season:

2016/17 - 15
2017/18 - 14
2018/19 - 16

Nope.

Look at other high point scoring wingers first few years genius. It isnt unprecedented. Jagr a good example.

 

[Cleetus]

Yes i can. You guys make **** up and it is just as likely other things shift. Didnt mention the below average pp p/60 this year either ...compared to other years. While you haters are hoping beyond hope that Marner doesnt make you look like fools yet again, he will hit close to 100 pts if not over

I will go over 100 points.

 

[PromisedLand]

Huh? Marner missed five games in 2016/17. Matthews had 3 goals, 5 assists, 8 points during those 5 games.

oh yea forgot about that.

regardless Marner has also scored without Matthews in the line up in an even tough match ups while Matthews in his first season wasn't taking on hard match ups

 

[biotk]

Look at other high point scoring wingers first few years genius. It isnt unprecedented. Jagr a good example.

This might be the most absurd argument I have read on here.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Yes i can. You guys make **** up and it is just as likely other things shift. Didnt mention the below average pp p/60 this year either ...compared to other years. While you haters are hoping beyond hope that Marner doesnt make you look like fools yet again, he will hit close to 100 pts if not over

There are plenty of reasons to think his primary assist production was too high to sustain. there's literally zero reason to think his goal scoring was too low, other than you wish it to be the case

 

[Notsince67]

There are plenty of reasons to think his primary assist production was too high to sustain. there's literally zero reason to think his goal scoring was too low, other than you wish it to be the case

You jokers are pathetic. Primary points a likelier to be sustainable tha secondary assists and are statistically only slightly less stable than goals.
You guys embarrassed yourselve all year crowing about how Nylander looked great and are now predicting the leafs best player to regress?
Bookmarking these posts so we can all laugh together next year.

 

[X66]

No, what he posted was facts.

By being either disingenuous and/or not very smart. Total's should only matter when you factor in the games played, unless you're disingenuous/naive as well.

Since the year 2000 do you know how many players had a higher goals per game average than Matthews after their first 3 years in the league(ages 18 to 22)?

Ovechkin

The only centers to average more points per game than him with that same criteria, Crosby, Malkin, McDavid and Backstrom.

Those players also got way more power-play time than Matthews.

It's already been shown that Matthews even strength production is right there with a guy like Malkin when he was either winning or contending for Art Ross titles.

Just looking at raw totals is a dumb mans game.

Tl/dr

Fans like you guys don't deserve a player like Matthews, you guys have no idea what you're talking about when it comes to him or his contract.

 

[Notsince67]

This might be the most absurd argument I have read on here.

What is absurd is that you predict a decline in player who just accomplished so.ething spectacular without even co sidering he just turned 23 and will likely improve like all elite.23 year old have. Pathetic dude

 

[PromisedLand]

People thinking that Matthews has separated himself against Marner need to look at the so called stats in detail

Full 3 year sample

Player	GP	TOI	CF%	SF%	GF%	xGF%	SCF%	HDCF%	Off. Zone Faceoff %
Mitchell Marner	241	3350	51.31	49.02	56.2	51.59	54.26	53.4	53.76
Auston Matthews	212	3110	51.5	49.99	55.3	51.54	53.33	53.9	56.88

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

To take out the "Tavares" BS look at the first two year sample

Player	GP	TOI	CF%	SF%	GF%	xGF%	SCF%	HDCF%	Off. Zone Faceoff %
Mitchell Marner	159	2138	50.98	48.5	53.7	50.8	54.2	52.04	54.9
Auston Matthews	144	2090	50.82	49.8	59.3	51.5	53.2	53.84	56.5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

It is quite pathetic that people here are bashing marner and praising matthews like the second coming of jesus when statistically there isn't any significant difference between them


EDIT: Adding just 2018-2019 season to see how much the "Tavares" impact is there on Mitch's stats

Player	GP	TOI	CF%	SF%	GF%	xGF%	SCF%	HDCF%	Off. Zone Faceoff %
Mitchell Marner	82	1213	51.83	49.86	59.85	52.8	54.37	55.49	51.71
Auston Matthews	68	1020	52.81	50.42	48.67	51.55	53.66	53.98	57.62

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

compared to the tables above nothing too significant IMO; not sure what Tavares effect people keep talking about; it's almost like marner continued to produce and get better as he learned in NHL just like any other good young player in the league given their talent

 

[biotk]

oh yea forgot about that.

regardless Marner has also scored without Matthews in the line up in an even tough match ups while Matthews in his first season wasn't taking on hard match ups

I really don't care about these claims. Most examples show that good players produce more when a star is out of the lineup - perhaps because of motivation - perhaps because of a different role, or more ice time. And while quality of competition is worthwhile in minds of posters it is simply an almost completely useless stat in the real world. QoT counts for about 6 times more. It is why I only look at (and I have to do manually) the percentage of time specific forwards go up against the top D (there was very little difference between Tavares and Matthews here, as I have posted before), and the percentage of time specific D go up against top forwards (like McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews etc). But even that only tells you how much a coach relies on a player in tough situations, but not much more.

Simply put if you are going up against the toughest matchup, say Jack Eichel, your QoC is really high, but it has zero effect on your how hard it is for you to get shot attempts or score goals - actually it is probably easier than if are going up against the second line players who are more focused on defense than the first line in this case. But even then it doesn't really matter, because most games there is very little difference between who the first and second line faces, with the exception of a few games where a coach hard matches.

 

[PromisedLand]

I really don't care about these claims. Most examples show that good players produce more when a star is out of the lineup - perhaps because of motivation - perhaps because of a different role, or more ice time. And while quality of competition is worthwhile in minds of posters it is simply an almost completely useless stat in the real world. QoT counts for about 6 times more. It is why I only look at (and I have to do manually) the percentage of time specific forwards go up against the top D (there was very little difference between Tavares and Matthews here, as I have posted before), and the percentage of time specific D go up against top forwards (like McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews etc). But even that only tells you how much a coach relies on a player in tough situations, but not much more.

Simply put if you are going up against the toughest matchup, say Jack Eichel, your QoC is really high, but it has zero effect on your how hard it is for you to get shot attempts or score goals - actually it is probably easier than if are going up against the second line players who are more focused on defense than the first line in this case. But even then it doesn't really matter, because most games there is very little difference between who the first and second line faces, with the exception of a few games where a coach hard matches.

That is true what you say but is it also not true that if you are playing against oppositions' top lines then chances of you getting scored on is much higher? and if yes that means you play more defensively sound to avoid giving up goals that means you are going to score less goals; unless you are so good that you just keep playing in their zone and trap their top line in their zone skating circles around them

 

[Notsince67]

I really don't care about these claims. Most examples show that good players produce more when a star is out of the lineup - perhaps because of motivation - perhaps because of a different role, or more ice time. And while quality of competition is worthwhile in minds of posters it is simply an almost completely useless stat in the real world. QoT counts for about 6 times more. It is why I only look at (and I have to do manually) the percentage of time specific forwards go up against the top D (there was very little difference between Tavares and Matthews here, as I have posted before), and the percentage of time specific D go up against top forwards (like McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews etc). But even that only tells you how much a coach relies on a player in tough situations, but not much more.

Simply put if you are going up against the toughest matchup, say Jack Eichel, your QoC is really high, but it has zero effect on your how hard it is for you to get shot attempts or score goals - actually it is probably easier than if are going up against the second line players who are more focused on defense than the first line in this case. But even then it doesn't really matter, because most games there is very little difference between who the first and second line faces, with the exception of a few games where a coach hard matches.

What a crock. I could turn your argument against matthews with the qot differential to marner a season ago...which was much higher than this years marner advantage.
You are all over the place.

 

[biotk]

That is true what you say but is it also not true that if you are playing against oppositions' top lines then chances of you getting scored on is much higher? and if yes that means you play more defensively sound to avoid giving up goals that means you are going to score less goals; unless you are so good that you just keep playing in their zone and trap their top line in their zone skating circles around them

Sure that all might be true, but as you can see from McCurdy's graphs in the article I posted to over the course of the season a first line player is going to face 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th line players, as well as 1st, 2nd and 3rd pairing Ds and while they are, for instance, going to face 1st line players more than your teams' second line players it is only by a small margin.

If you are on the first line - and you are going to face 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th line opponents, as well as 1st, 2nd and 3rd pairing D, it is pretty much a guarantee that your quality of teammates are going to better than your quality of competition.

Let's look at some players:

Marner
2017/18: 29.8 QoT 29.0 QoC (+0.8)
2018/19: 31.7 QoT 29.9 QoC (+1.8)

Matthews
2017/18: 31.0 QoT 29.7 QoC (+1.3)
2018/19: 30.2 QoT 29.3 QoC (+0.9)

Ceci
2017/18: 27.1 QoT 29.3 QoC (-2.2)
2018/19: 27.3 QoT 29.1 QoC (-1.8)

Keep in mind that QoC numbers are consistent for players on every team (because every team plays every other team), but QoT numbers will be skewed based on the how good your own team is. So a team like Ottawa will have players who are AHL level playing, say 3rd line minutes, and the algorithm with consider them to equally as good as, say Tampa or Toronto's 3rd line - which Kadri (and Nylander for a stretch) played on.

So the differential between QoT and QoC is probably understated with all three of these players (meaning that Marner and Matthews had an even more positive differential and Ceci had an even more negative one).

 

[biotk]

What a crock. I could turn your argument against matthews with the qot differential to marner a season ago...which was much higher than this years marner advantage.
You are all over the place.

1) I never said anything about that.
2) You are wrong, anyway.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Matthews has always had the luxury of playing when Marner was in the line up not once had Matthews played in his entire career without Marner in the line up; opposition has to respect both lines so Matthews benefits

Lmao, what?? It's like 30 games over 3 years. What a ridiculous basis for anything.

Also, it's equally irrelevant but I'm pretty sure you're wrong and Matthews has played when Marner wasn't in the lineup before. Marner has missed a few games.

if it wasn't for Marner Leafs would not have even made the playsoffs for 2017-2018 season.

The Leafs were never in danger of missing the 2017-2018 playoffs, and that was not all Marner's doing by any means.

Marner has led the club in points for 2 consecutive seasons and has posted points that have shown increasing trend.

Marner has barely led the team in 1 season (and arguable value-wise considering the greater value of goals) while in a much more advantageous position production-wise, as I have repeatedly pointed out. Matthews led the team in his first 2 years (don't even try to pretend 69 in 82 is more impressive than 63 in 62), and has also had an increasing trend throughout his ELC. Matthews has done this while being put in progressively more difficult positions throughout his ELC.

The claim that Nylander in a "sophmore" season means some bottom feeder player is effing ridiculous by that logic McDavid in his 2nd season i.e. "sophmore" season producing means absolutely nothing.

It doesn't mean he is a bottom-feeder player. It does mean that he is not a finished player, and this playing with rookies and inexperienced players and lesser-skilled players is a trend that has sustained throughout his ELC, which is especially hard for a C and a young player himself. Playing with veterans and highly-skilled players is much easier and more beneficial for production. Nylander is really the only high-skilled player that Matthews has played with, while Marner has played with a ton of them of equal of greater skill that have more experience.

 

[moon111]

If there's been one failure, Nylander to Matthews, Marner to Tavares is predictable and makes it easier to defend against.
So the question going forward, who's going to diversify their game?
Will Matthews become a better playmaker or will Marner become a better goal-scorer?

 

[biotk]

What is absurd is that you predict a decline in player who just accomplished so.ething spectacular without even co sidering he just turned 23 and will likely improve like all elite.23 year old have. Pathetic dude

Last summer I also predicted a decline in Marner's PP production and was correct. I also predicted a decline in Matthews 5v5 production (and was correct although it was small, and that was even more surprising considering his linemates). I also predicted a big increase in Matthews 5v5 production in year two compared to year 1 (and was correct).

I am not predicting that Marner will be a worse player next year than this year. I am stating that I think his numbers this year were not an accurate reflection. Happens all the time. I don't care that you don't like what I have to say. If you did like what I had to say, I would be more concerned.