Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVII (continued)

[weems]

Regarding Marner and his abilities, are you worried that 94 points may be his ceiling?

It'd be disastrous to pay him mega-dollars and never see him at that level of point production ever again.

I'm of the opinion that Matthews' very best years are yet to be seen. I'm not so sure about Marner.

Naw man I dont agree with that.

Marner is a amazing talent. I remember laughing at the Pat Kane comparisons and I will actually eat crow because I wasnt sold on Marner.

This guy has dominated every level and has overcome hurdles. To me a guy that dominant who's actually been at a obvious disadvatage (size) has to have a incredible work ethic, drive and want to be great.

Someone like that doesnt usually peak at 22-23. He's going to continue to get faster and stronger over the next couple years and more familiar with the league and its players.

I might be higher on Matthews longterm upside but we shouldnt take away from how dynamic and great Marner really is.

There was many stretchs last season where I watched him and thought in a few years this guy could honestly rival any offensive talent and I even started to wonder if he could be better than Matthews.

With the icetime, playing with Tavares, on our stacked PP he's going to routinely put up 95-100pts unless he gets injured.

The way the game is being played is only going to continue to get more suited to his style of play.

Him not improving from this point would be a masssive shock considering his trajectory.

 

[DarkKnight]

Taking the third year from a three year pro and acting like it’s the outlier shows a real flaw.

 

[Notsince67]

Naw man I dont agree with that.

Marner is a amazing talent. I remember laughing at the Pat Kane comparisons and I will actually eat crow because I wasnt sold on Marner.

This guy has dominated every level and has overcome hurdles. To me a guy that dominant who's actually been at a obvious disadvatage (size) has to have a incredible work ethic, drive and want to be great.

Someone like that doesnt usually peak at 22-23. He's going to continue to get faster and stronger over the next couple years and more familiar with the league and its players.

I might be higher on Matthews longterm upside but we shouldnt take away from how dynamic and great Marner really is.

There was many stretchs last season where I watched him and thought in a few years this guy could honestly rival any offensive talent and I even started to wonder if he could be better than Matthews.

With the icetime, playing with Tavares, on our stacked PP he's going to routinely put up 95-100pts unless he gets injured.

The way the game is being played is only going to continue to get more suited to his style of play.

Him not improving from this point would be a masssive shock considering his trajectory.

This what I would call an honest discussion. The greatest players we have ever seen were actually more elite in their focus to get better than everyone else. McDavid, Gretzky, Crosby to name a few.
People change and it is possible that focus may change to the negative but who can predict this?
We know that Matthews was pretty obsessed to get better at a young age. If that determination continues, he will no doubt get better. We know that Marner is a pretty obsessed guy as well. None of us know who has the most determination.

I once remember reading things about Jagr. Stories like him doing 300 squats when he was young. When he joined the NHL, he would train obsessively to take better shots. He would train with team mates for 4 hours a day and then secretly come back at night to work by himself...no one knew.

I remember reading that mcdavid felt he had to train harder than everyone else because he feared he would be surpassed.

The trajectory looks promising for both. Matthews with his eye hand coordination and Marner with his vision are both impressive. In my mind it wouldn't surprise me if either surpassed the other in the future

 

[X66]

Matthews has three years to show us what he could do. He topped 70 points ONCE with a career high of 73.

This is primitive thinking.

 

[MyBudJT]

Naw man I dont agree with that.

Marner is a amazing talent. I remember laughing at the Pat Kane comparisons and I will actually eat crow because I wasnt sold on Marner.

This guy has dominated every level and has overcome hurdles. To me a guy that dominant who's actually been at a obvious disadvatage (size) has to have a incredible work ethic, drive and want to be great.

Someone like that doesnt usually peak at 22-23. He's going to continue to get faster and stronger over the next couple years and more familiar with the league and its players.

I might be higher on Matthews longterm upside but we shouldnt take away from how dynamic and great Marner really is.

There was many stretchs last season where I watched him and thought in a few years this guy could honestly rival any offensive talent and I even started to wonder if he could be better than Matthews.

With the icetime, playing with Tavares, on our stacked PP he's going to routinely put up 95-100pts unless he gets injured.

The way the game is being played is only going to continue to get more suited to his style of play.

Him not improving from this point would be a masssive shock considering his trajectory.

Routinely put up 95-100 with a few 110+ in him, IMO. Heck, had we had an adequate PP last season, Marner cracks 100 pts...

 

[56 Years No Cup]

I am kinda ready to move on from him. I am sick of this kind of attitude these players have. Like the team can't function without a Marner or a Rantanen. Gimme a break. Sign already, what are they waiting for? Teams are already offering these guys the moon, what else do they want?? I don't give a **** if Marner never plays a game in a Leafs uni again. Sick of this BS.

Please point me to a link with an official Leafs offer to Marner.

 

[ajp4to]

I am kinda ready to move on from him. I am sick of this kind of attitude these players have. Like the team can't function without a Marner or a Rantanen. Gimme a break. Sign already, what are they waiting for? Teams are already offering these guys the moon, what else do they want?? I don't give a **** if Marner never plays a game in a Leafs uni again. Sick of this BS.

Mr. loyal leaf turns down 10x8 (22 million more in guaranteed money) because Matthews got 11.6 for 5. Doesn't matter that no other team would ever consider giving him that. Give me what Matthews got or I will sit out until you cave to my demands. I don't care what that does to cap structure or the leafs ability to keep decent players around me. Not my problem if the leafs need to trade away even more assets to keep me. Give me what Matthews got!

 

[Dekes For Days]

Taking a one year sample are we?

Marner plays more important situations and plays on PK; Marner facing oppositions' top lines and still putting up points while keeping them off the board is more important than Matthews playing against lower competition with offensive wingers

You complain about using last year as a sample and then list a bunch of things that only apply to last year? How does that make sense?

Also, did you completely ignore my second line? Over their ELCs, Matthews has endured more difficult roles and worse linemates, and their difference in linemates far outweighed the difference in their quality of competition last year.

Also, "offensive wingers" is a weird way to characterize two 40-point rookies.

 

[PromisedLand]

You complain about using last year as a sample and then list a bunch of things that only apply to last year? How does that make sense?

Also, did you completely ignore my second line? Over their ELCs, Matthews has endured more difficult roles and worse linemates, and their difference in linemates far outweighed the difference in their quality of competition last year.

Also, "offensive wingers" is a weird way to characterize two 40-point rookies.

Matthews has predominantly played with Nylander; last season he was not even taking hard match ups

Marner has played with bozak/jvr, kadi/komarov, kadri/marleau and last season he got tavares

your entire spiel is based on that marner played with tavares meanwhile completely disregarding everything else including the time marner put the team on the back when matthews was out injured

 

[hfman]

Morener still not signed yet?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Matthews has predominantly played with Nylander; last season he was not even taking hard match ups

Marner has played with bozak/jvr, kadi/komarov, kadri/marleau and last season he got tavares

Matthews has played with rookie/sophomore Nylander, rookie/sophomore Hyman, Brown (starting as a rookie), Ennis, 16 goal Marleau, rookie Kapanen, rookie Johnsson, and his linemates got progressively worse (yet he still improved production). He has gotten much harder match-ups throughout his ELC, except for last year, where he got slightly easier match-ups with substantially worse linemates. He has had the #2 PP unit for 2 of the 3 years.

Marner has played with Tavares, 3rd year Hyman, 30+ goal Kadri, 30+ goal JVR, Bozak, 27 goal Marleau, and his linemates got progressively better. He has been on the #1 PP unit all 3 years.

your entire spiel is based on that marner played with tavares meanwhile completely disregarding everything else including the time marner put the team on the back when matthews was out injured

Matthews' first 2 years are way ahead of Marner's first 2 years in almost every way, so I'm not even sure what you're trying to argue.

 

[hfman]

whats taking this guy so long to sign

 

[The Apologist]

"The District Municipality of Muskoka is a well-known as cottage country, a few hours north of Toronto. Huntsville and Gravenhurst are only 2 of the towns surrounded by innumerable lakes and waterways, forests and rocky shorelines. The moniker ‘Muskoka 5’ implied that veteran players in Toronto were too comfortable, content to play out the season and spend summers by the lake. No one could figure why anyone would pass up a chance to be playing for the Stanley Cup to stick around the Leafs"

https://thehockeywriters.com/the-maple-leafs-and-the-legacy-of-the-muskoka-five/

is that supposed to prove me wrong or right?

From the paragraph right before what you quoted:
The focus fell onto 5 players who had no-trade clauses (given by former GM John Ferguson Jr.), and had refused to waive them. These players were thought the Leafs’ most valuable commodities; trading one or all could potentially restock Toronto for the future. Mats Sundin, Tomas Kaberle, Darcy Tucker, Bryan McCabe and Pavel Kubina.

 

[biotk]

Sounds pretty unsustainable and not something I'd expect from him going forward

That is like saying that his PP production the year before was unsustainable.

Interestingly, last summer when I said that Matthews' 5v5 production would undoubtedly fall, I received very little push back (it fell by 5%). But when I said that Marner's PP productivity would undoubtedly fall (just as Nylander's had) I got a ton of push back (it fell by 35%).

Marner's 5v5 primary assists by season:

2016/17 - 13
2017/18 - 12
2018/19 - 36

There is probably no safer bet in the NHL than saying that Marner's 5v5 primary assist rate last season was completely unsustainable.

 

[Slot]

My guesses at this point would be

2 x 8
3 x 8.5
4 x 9
5 x 9.5
6 x 10-10.5
7 x 11
8 x 11.5

I think 7-8 are off limits.
1 think 5 is unlikey

If we got to 4 it might turn out to be like 9.316

I would debate between 2-3

If it were any of those numbers I think that Marner would have been signed the day after the season ended.

 

[biotk]

Regarding Marner and his abilities, are you worried that 94 points may be his ceiling?

It'd be disastrous to pay him mega-dollars and never see him at that level of point production ever again.

I'm of the opinion that Matthews' very best years are yet to be seen. I'm not so sure about Marner.

I have said before I consider it about 50/50 that Marner never tops 94. I think that the Leafs viewed him as a 75-80 point winger last summer, and I think they still view him as a 75-80 point winger. People can be outraged about that all they want, and time may prove me wrong, but based on the contract situation of both Matthews and Marner, I feel like that is the teams' position.

Matthews is a big C who is slowly learning how to use his size. I think that the team feels that he is going to reach much higher levels over the next couple years. I also watched almost every single game that Lemieux played in his career, and almost every game that Jagr played (while he was a Penguin) and I watched two players, who many would say came into the NHL fully mature with little room for growth - just as many assume for Matthews, improve year after year. I am not saying that Matthews is Lemieux or Jagr. I am saying that after watching them, I am putting my money on the 6' 3" 220+ lbs guy every time.

 

[IPS]

I have said before I consider it about 50/50 that Marner never tops 94. I think that the Leafs viewed him as a 75-80 point winger last summer, and I think they still view him as a 75-80 point winger. People can be outraged about that all they want, and time may prove me wrong, but based on the contract situation of both Matthews and Marner, I feel like that is the teams' position.

Matthews is a big C who is slowly learning how to use his size. I think that the team feels that he is going to reach much higher levels over the next couple years. I also watched almost every single game that Lemieux played in his career, and almost every game that Jagr played (while he was a Penguin) and I watched two players, who many would say came into the NHL fully mature with little room for growth - just as many assume for Matthews, improve year after year. I am not saying that Matthews is Lemieux or Jagr. I am saying that after watching them, I am putting my money on the 6' 3" 220+ lbs guy every time.

I love the big 3 and want them to succeed but I won't discard my objectivity.

I read the Kane comparison come up a lot (I'm a massive Kane fan) and even though Marner got 94 points last year, I still don't view him as equal to Kane. Marner may have Kane's hockey IQ, but he does not possess the dual-threat capability that Kane has. Marner's an average shooter, whereas Kane has a laser of a wrister that he's deathly accurate with.

Part of the reason our PP went to shit last year is because teams figured Marner out on the right wall, if you take away his tip-pass option and his cross-ice passes, he's very limited. He doesn't have a legitimate shooting threat (especially on the right wall where his angles are limited) to deter defenders from over-committing to his passing options. Mike Babcock's stubbornness obviously doesn't help, but we did figure out Marner can be neutralized on the PP (Boston has done this magnifcantly the past 2 playoffs, and ofc Babcock still refuses to adjust).

I still think people don't quite understand just how much Tavares helped Marner out.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

That is like saying that his PP production the year before was unsustainable.

Interestingly, last summer when I said that Matthews' 5v5 production would undoubtedly fall, I received very little push back (it fell by 5%). But when I said that Marner's PP productivity would undoubtedly fall (just as Nylander's had) I got a ton of push back (it fell by 35%).

Marner's 5v5 primary assists by season:

2016/17 - 13
2017/18 - 12
2018/19 - 36

There is probably no safer bet in the NHL than saying that Marner's 5v5 primary assist rate last season was completely unsustainable.

I feel like Matthews would've kept it up if he got Nylander for the full year at 5v5 instead of lousy linemates. Marner's PP unit actually got better for this season, so he has no excuse. His 5v5 production will likely see a few more secondary assists, but not enough to make up for the drop in primary production

 

[ottomaddox]

is that supposed to prove me wrong or right?

From the paragraph right before what you quoted:
The focus fell onto 5 players who had no-trade clauses (given by former GM John Ferguson Jr.), and had refused to waive them. These players were thought the Leafs’ most valuable commodities; trading one or all could potentially restock Toronto for the future. Mats Sundin, Tomas Kaberle, Darcy Tucker, Bryan McCabe and Pavel Kubina.

No.

 

[56 Years No Cup]

This is primitive thinking.

No, what he posted was facts.

 

[56 Years No Cup]

Mr. loyal leaf turns down 10x8 (22 million more in guaranteed money) because Matthews got 11.6 for 5. Doesn't matter that no other team would ever consider giving him that. Give me what Matthews got or I will sit out until you cave to my demands. I don't care what that does to cap structure or the leafs ability to keep decent players around me. Not my problem if the leafs need to trade away even more assets to keep me. Give me what Matthews got!

Please point to a link that confirms the Leafs offered this. Thanks.

 

[The Podium]

shut down lines don't usually have elite forward group and potentially leak goals so while overall marners production is better matthews production in goals/60 is a result of not facing against top lines.

Also, 2 seasons ago Marner played in a match up role with Kadri and Marleau and scored at a tremendous pace

A shutdown line leaks goals because they don’t have elite forwards

 

[Notsince67]

That is like saying that his PP production the year before was unsustainable.

Interestingly, last summer when I said that Matthews' 5v5 production would undoubtedly fall, I received very little push back (it fell by 5%). But when I said that Marner's PP productivity would undoubtedly fall (just as Nylander's had) I got a ton of push back (it fell by 35%).

Marner's 5v5 primary assists by season:

2016/17 - 13
2017/18 - 12
2018/19 - 36

There is probably no safer bet in the NHL than saying that Marner's 5v5 primary assist rate last season was completely unsustainable.

I can say that his low goal production is unsustainable as well.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I can say that his low goal production is unsustainable as well.

No you can't. Point to secondary assists if you need something

 

[Confucius]

Please point me to a link with an official Leafs offer to Marner.

Leafs Announce Qualifying Offers to Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson, Carcone