Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XI

[IPS]

There is no way Matthews is 2+ million more valuable and I really feel that it will be proven beyond a doubt in the next few years.

I'd be willing to make a bet out of this if you're down.

 

[Sypher04]

If I was Montreal, I'd OS Marner at $8,118,640.99 per year for 4 years.

Montreal could lose a 1st, 2nd and 3rd, but could get Marner (cheap) for 4 years.

Whether Toronto matches or not, Marner gets to be a UFA in 4.

Toronto would be pissed but... what does Montreal care.

There doesn't seem to be any chance Marner would sign that - or that we would not match. Also, I really, truly don't believe NHL teams are in the business of just trying to screw with other teams. It's a fun conspiracy theory among fans, but teams have relationships to manage and their own teams to worry about first and foremost.

 

[inthe6ix]

I saw something said, that since the MTL media is trying to play up that Aho and Carolina don't like each other, that Carolina may make it official today just to put everything to rest and avoid that

yeah just smoke and mirrors by the francophone press

i'm sure aho wasn't happy with the way dundon was screwing him around with the numbers (rumour was 6aav), but dundon is on record saying aho is the only untouchable on the team and waddell also mentioned a few weeks ago that he would match any offer, so if anything, mtl just expedited negotiations between them and helped aho get above where he initially wanted to be (rumoured 9.5 aav)

kotkaniemi retaliation coming? this will be fun to see how it plays out

 

[MapleLeafs77]

it is funny how perceptions can change in a hurry in this league. He seems pretty durable and if he can stay healthy for the next 4, he may achieve something not seen in a really long time. A player entering free agency with 4 to 5 90+ point seasons. A player of that stature is almost a lock for HHOF considerations after he retires. Now I know there are a lot of people here who doubt he can sustain this production but I see nothing in his game that points to a regression. He is responsible defensively while facing some of the toughest minutes of all forwards in the league.
I have watch a lot of hockey in my life and I can say that Marner is not an opportunistic player. He seeks the puck like a dog does a bone. He is an opportunistic creator. Losing a player like that in UFA is unprecedented in the league ( and I'm including Tavares). Dubas would be wise to find a way to make Marner feel like he isn't a wayward son. There is no way Matthews is 2+ million more valuable and I really feel that it will be proven beyond a doubt in the next few years.

My prediction:

Matthews/nylander outperform tavares/marner.

Matthews can get 50-60 goals imo.
Nylander can do 30-35 goals imo.

Tavares will 38-44 goals moving forward.
Marner will get 20-25 goals.

I think nylander bounces back big and matthews plays a full season and shows why he is THE best player we have and have ever had.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

My prediction:

Matthews/nylander outperform tavares/marner.

Matthews can get 50-60 goals imo.
Nylander can do 30-35 goals imo.

Tavares will 38-44 goals moving forward.
Marner will get 20-25 goals.

I think nylander bounces back big and matthews plays a full season and shows why he is THE best player we have and have ever had.

I don't think Nylander will get the chance to stick with Matthews the whole year because Babcock likes mixing Kappy in there, but if they do play together the whole year I agree they could outproduce the Tavares/Marner combo.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I don't think the GM's play that game. If I somehow connive to make my competitor pay his hamburger flippers $50/hour, my hamburger flippers will soon want the same wage or more. I see it as cutting one's nose to spite their face.

I have read articles that stated that this has been done before for the reasons that I mentioned. Can't remember when or which team (Philly maybe with Gratton?) because I was doing research on the topic and read several articles, but its out there and you can find it (I did).

 

[Notsince67]

Canes will match the offersheet today (I dont know why, should have waited for 7 days to **** the Habs over). Which means the Habs can do another one. Bergevin has lost it, I'm pretty sure he will offersheet Marner.

They may have presented one to Marner already and he refused to sign. Everyone assumes this is all about money but I think it is about respect. As far as we know, He might be perfectly happy signing a Kane like RFA deal if traded. He might be calling a Dubas bluff by holding off by effectively daring him to trade him. If Marner got traded for a handful of pieces and he signs for 9.2MM x 5 elsewhere, Dubas will be run out of town by the fanbase.
I hope for Dubas' sake that this is just about money because he is screwed if it isn't

 

[Notsince67]

I'd be willing to make a bet out of this if you're down.

What kind of bet?

 

[Sypher04]

it is funny how perceptions can change in a hurry in this league. He seems pretty durable and if he can stay healthy for the next 4, he may achieve something not seen in a really long time. A player entering free agency with 4 to 5 90+ point seasons. A player of that stature is almost a lock for HHOF considerations after he retires. Now I know there are a lot of people here who doubt he can sustain this production but I see nothing in his game that points to a regression. He is responsible defensively while facing some of the toughest minutes of all forwards in the league.
I have watch a lot of hockey in my life and I can say that Marner is not an opportunistic player. He seeks the puck like a dog does a bone. He is an opportunistic creator. Losing a player like that in UFA is unprecedented in the league ( and I'm including Tavares). Dubas would be wise to find a way to make Marner feel like he isn't a wayward son. There is no way Matthews is 2+ million more valuable and I really feel that it will be proven beyond a doubt in the next few years.

I actually, personally, don't doubt Mitch at all. I think, if anything, he's going to get even better than he has shown to this point.
The problem imo is 2 fold:
a) there isn't a single comparable in the league that justifies Marner getting Matthews money
b) we can't afford to make him the first

I don't think Marner will leave, and I think they'll find a deal that works for both sides. The contract negotiation is undeniably a bit contentious, but that's kinda a shared fault and if Marner's camp really reflects on it, they should see that. Yes, the Leafs may have overpaid Matthews a bit, that doesn't mean they can just turn around and make the same mistake again. The mistake Marner's camp made was (again, if we believe reports) wanting to go last of the big 3. This was always the point where the cap was going to be the biggest issue.

Ultimately, I think a 3 year deal works for both sides, but we'll see I guess. I don't believe, in my heart, that Mitch wants to go anywhere else.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

This is literally what I've been saying all along.

No team is even conceiving the risk of of those huge offersheet compensations. Not even a riverboat gambler like Bergevin was willing to risk it. I've said all along that the risk-to-reward is far too out of whack for any team to consider giving up a crazy amount of high picks for any RFA this year.

Now if people could stop believing the sensationalism nonsense from the media, that's be great. Just ****ing ignore it people, by clicking it and discussing it you're only giving them what they want.

The way Dreger turned himself into a media prostitute should go down as the most disgraceful display of journalism ever seen.

What do you think would happen if Montreal makes an offer for $10,568,500 (= two 1sts, 2nd & 3rd)? Would we match?

 

[nuck]

My thinking is that making an offer for $10,568,500 is done with the idea that Toronto would match. Their goal is to push the price up for Toronto.

Again, I doubt it happens, but its something I fear when those more paranoid and suspicious moments take over.

If all they could afford for Aho is $8.5M there is no chance they go $10+ for Marner. they are almost the same player. Habs really crapped the bed with the puny offer because he is worth more than that and hoarding late 1sts or trying to save $1M on an elite talent doesn't make sense. It was a perfect storm with a stubborn owner and a relatively low revenue team. The speculation on the radio today was the modest number from Ahos side was because he wanted a 5 year term badly which wasn't coming from Carolina, and now he gets it. Even wondering if Aho settled at $8.5M so the Canes would be able to match, although that seems a bit Machiavellian for Gerry Johannson.

 

[Cor]

I just want something done in the next couple days.

I don't want this to drag through the entire summer.

I want to actually spend the entire summer getting excited for this season, because this is probably the best roster we have had.

 

[Sypher04]

I just want something done in the next couple days.

I don't want this to drag through the entire summer.

I want to actually spend the entire summer getting excited for this season, because this is probably the best roster we have had.

This. Agree so much.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

If all they could afford for Aho is $8.5M there is no chance they go $10+ for Marner. they are almost the same player. Habs really crapped the bed with the puny offer because he is worth more than that and hoarding late 1sts or trying to save $1M on an elite talent doesn't make sense. It was a perfect storm with a stubborn owner and a relatively low revenue team. The speculation on the radio today was the modest number from Ahos side was because he wanted a 5 year term badly which wasn't coming from Carolina, and now he gets it. Even wondering if Aho settled at $8.5M so the Canes would be able to match, although that seems a bit Machiavellian for Gerry Johannson.

How do we know its all they could afford? We do know that's what they offered, but not necessarily what they could afford. They might have thought that the offer was strong enough vis-a-vis the upfront signing bonus aspect? Again, the thinking is that Toronto would match and Montreal's motivation is to drive up the price for Toronto.

I think its highly unlikely myself - just kind of fascinated by the topic I guess.

 

[kb]

What do you think would happen if Montreal makes an offer for $10,568,500 (= two 1sts, 2nd & 3rd)? Would we match?

Yes. But they don't play offer sheet games. If you care more about what your opponent does rather than what your own team does, you are quickly out of a job.

 

[kb]

If this is all pure jealousy of Matthews' that would be very disappointing.
I think both sides are just trying to get the best deal they can within our cap constraints.

Paul is jealous, not Mitch.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

it is funny how perceptions can change in a hurry in this league. He seems pretty durable and if he can stay healthy for the next 4, he may achieve something not seen in a really long time. A player entering free agency with 4 to 5 90+ point seasons. A player of that stature is almost a lock for HHOF considerations after he retires. Now I know there are a lot of people here who doubt he can sustain this production but I see nothing in his game that points to a regression. He is responsible defensively while facing some of the toughest minutes of all forwards in the league.
I have watch a lot of hockey in my life and I can say that Marner is not an opportunistic player. He seeks the puck like a dog does a bone. He is an opportunistic creator. Losing a player like that in UFA is unprecedented in the league ( and I'm including Tavares). Dubas would be wise to find a way to make Marner feel like he isn't a wayward son. There is no way Matthews is 2+ million more valuable and I really feel that it will be proven beyond a doubt in the next few years.

He can sustain this production for sure. As long as they keep him on Tavares' wing.

 

[ORRFForever]

There doesn't seem to be any chance Marner would sign that - or that we would not match. Also, I really, truly don't believe NHL teams are in the business of just trying to screw with other teams. It's a fun conspiracy theory among fans, but teams have relationships to manage and their own teams to worry about first and foremost.

All true except the one part... To get to be a UFA in 4, I bet Marner would sign.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Yes. But they don't play offer sheet games. If you care more about what your opponent does rather than what your own team does, you are quickly out of a job.

Who's they? Montreal already did it -> Aho.

Again, I think its highly unlikely (i.e., 5% chance), but I'm just kind of fascinated by the idea. RFAs are getting their money now versus just UFAs did in the past. Somebody pushed the envelope. Things change. And, this tactic has been used before.

 

[56 Years No Cup]

Paul is jealous, not Mitch.

Just like I said with the Nylander situation, Mitch should tell his father to back off.

 

[Sypher04]

Paul is jealous, not Mitch.

Lord knows it's not ideal at all if we've got Paul Marner whispering in Mitch's ear over and over about being somehow disrespected by this organization. I see a player who had some bumps when he first got to coach Babcock and has grown tremendously in a short period of time. Who is trusted as much as anyone on the team, plays as much as anyone, and with best veterans almost routinely. I see a guy who chose to go last for contract negotiations (according to many reports) on a team with 3 high high end young talents all up for extensions within a year. I see a guy who probably is getting a contract offer that puts him among the highest paid wingers in the entire NHL (speculative, but reasonable)

I definitely don't see the disrespect. Just because, maybe, there's one or two guys on the team who makes more than you - for now.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I just want something done in the next couple days.

I don't want this to drag through the entire summer.

I want to actually spend the entire summer getting excited for this season, because this is probably the best roster we have had.

This. Agree so much.

That's a reason why Montreal might decide against an offer sheet. If this drags out until December like the Nylander situation, its good for a divisional rival like Montreal.

Fascinating topic - like a game of chess.

 

[kb]

Who's they? Montreal already did it -> Aho.

Again, I think its highly unlikely (i.e., 5% chance), but I'm just kind of fascinated by the idea. RFAs are getting their money now versus just UFAs did in the past. Somebody pushed the envelope. Things change. And, this tactic has been used before.

Was that a game to screw another team, or was it an attempt to sign a player they wanted? It's not to "screw another team". Why are the Leafs so important to screw over?

 

[Notsince67]

I actually, personally, don't doubt Mitch at all. I think, if anything, he's going to get even better than he has shown to this point.
The problem imo is 2 fold:
a) there isn't a single comparable in the league that justifies Marner getting Matthews money
b) we can't afford to make him the first

Dont disagree but there wasn't a real comparable to justify Matthews contract based on real performance. My point was that the issue is one of perceived favoritism.

I don't think Marner will leave, and I think they'll find a deal that works for both sides. The contract negotiation is undeniably a bit contentious, but that's kinda a shared fault and if Marner's camp really reflects on it, they should see that. Yes, the Leafs may have overpaid Matthews a bit, that doesn't mean they can just turn around and make the same mistake again. The mistake Marner's camp made was (again, if we believe reports) wanting to go last of the big 3. This was always the point where the cap was going to be the biggest issue.

Ultimately, I think a 3 year deal works for both sides, but we'll see I guess. I don't believe, in my heart, that Mitch wants to go anywhere else.

By all accounts there was an offer and counter offer last summer. We aren't privy to the discussion but it is quite possible that Marner's camp wanted to ensure that they weren't being held to a different standard than was articulated last summer. The rumors were that Marner wanted 9 x 8 and Dubas countered with 7.5MM x 8. There must have been a narrative from Dubas that was used to explained the position. Something as simple as a position that the Leafs pay for actual performance vs projections would be a devastating mistake on Dubas' part. He will then have turned around and paid Matthews based on projections leaving Marner's camp pissed. This wouldn't surprise me at all because it is clear that Dubas does not weigh his words carefully before he speaks.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

I just want something done in the next couple days.

I don't want this to drag through the entire summer.

I want to actually spend the entire summer getting excited for this season, because this is probably the best roster we have had.

But we're still stuck with Babcock. This season will be a write off. Next season is the hopeful one assuming they send this stiff packing this year at some point.