Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XI

[ShaneFalco]

I have this really sinking feeling that the Devils may try and OS Mitch. No idea if Mitch would sign it, but I think they could be interested.

Pierre McGuire on radio, again, today saying the Leafs should be careful. And I know for sure that Pierre is VERY tight with Ray Shero. We can connect those dots a bit... Devils have ample cap space, Shero's comments this summer about tired of GMs playing nice, Devils with lots of draft pick currency and have stock piled picks/#1's overalls recently.

Not saying for sure Marner would sign it, but I think the threat is certainly there.

It's win-win I think now. He goes elsewhere and we get lots of cap space and 4 picks to play with

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I hope Dubas waits out Marner the way he waited out Nylander.

People like Burke say Dubas caved on Nylander but he waited him down to the last minutes over months. Willie's people had to call to get the negotiation going again and get it done. He got him off of 8 million and to under 7 in the end. Which after the hysteria died down and other contracts got sighed is clearly looking pretty good with respect to where the market is right now for signings.

Yes, I can see this boiling down to a waiting game where the first party that blinks loses. It could be a protracted waiting game like Nylander though unfortunately.

 

[MyBudJT]

I have this really sinking feeling that the Devils may try and OS Mitch. No idea if Mitch would sign it, but I think they could be interested.

Pierre McGuire on radio, again, today saying the Leafs should be careful. And I know for sure that Pierre is VERY tight with Ray Shero. We can connect those dots a bit... Devils have ample cap space, Shero's comments this summer about tired of GMs playing nice, Devils with lots of draft pick currency and have stock piled picks/#1's overalls recently.

Not saying for sure Marner would sign it, but I think the threat is certainly there.

They got to be careful, though. They'd have to pay up big for Marner with his asks, something in the 11-12M AAV neighbourhood, and will have a few big RFAs of their own to sign in the next couple of years (Hischier, Bratt, Hughes, etc). Not to mention, the draft picks they'd have to give up, and that Hall would immediately say he wants the same salary.

 

[Clark4Ever]

I have this really sinking feeling that the Devils may try and OS Mitch. No idea if Mitch would sign it, but I think they could be interested.

Pierre McGuire on radio, again, today saying the Leafs should be careful. And I know for sure that Pierre is VERY tight with Ray Shero. We can connect those dots a bit... Devils have ample cap space, Shero's comments this summer about tired of GMs playing nice, Devils with lots of draft pick currency and have stock piled picks/#1's overalls recently.

Not saying for sure Marner would sign it, but I think the threat is certainly there.

At this point, it might actually help us if he signs an offer sheet. Based on recent signings, it would most certainly be in a range whereby we would match the offer, and we could finally put this matter to rest.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I have this really sinking feeling that the Devils may try and OS Mitch. No idea if Mitch would sign it, but I think they could be interested.

Pierre McGuire on radio, again, today saying the Leafs should be careful. And I know for sure that Pierre is VERY tight with Ray Shero. We can connect those dots a bit... Devils have ample cap space, Shero's comments this summer about tired of GMs playing nice, Devils with lots of draft pick currency and have stock piled picks/#1's overalls recently.

Not saying for sure Marner would sign it, but I think the threat is certainly there.

It's win-win I think now. He goes elsewhere and we get lots of cap space and 4 picks to play with

Doubt this happens and its just paranoia, but besides the Devils, the other team I'd worry about would be Montreal. They have already demonstrated they will head down the offer sheet path, and they don't need to make a qty four 1st round pick offer either to create a little trouble for Toronto.

For example, they could make an offer for $10,568,500 which I guess we'd match.

$8,454,872 - $10,568,589 = 2 1sts , 2nd, 3rd

Again, I doubt it happens, but this more paranoid thought did occur to me.

 

[gabeliscious]

Just heard them say on Hockey Buzz that a team could offer Marner a 4 year deal to screw the Leafs and it makes me wonder if Marner is holding out for a 4 year deal to be a UFA at 26.

You cannot build a team around a winger no matter how good the winger is. Any team that would offer sheet marner would either be trying to build around him which would be problematic OR want him to compliment their star center. The issue then would become the team is messing up their cap structure while giving up 4 first rounders. to give up 4 firsts for a 4 year contract would be nuts. even with the aho offer sheet, i am surprised it is not 7 years. if you are going to do it, at least make sure you have the asset long term.

for the above reasons, i cannot see marner getting an offer sheet. if aho is at $8.5 x 5 years and it looks like the leafs would give marner $9-9.5 for 5 years i am not sure a team would go much higher then that. the leafs also have sufficient cap space to match if it came down to it so marner and the offer sheeting team would have to really be careful. it could back fire on both of them...badly.

 

[dangomon]

Doubt this happens and its just paranoia, but besides the Devils, the other team I'd worry about would be Montreal. They have already demonstrated they will head down the offer sheet path, and they don't need to make a qty four 1st round pick offer either to create a little trouble for Toronto.

For example, they could make an offer for $10,568,500 which I guess we'd match.

$8,454,872-$10,568,589 = 2 1sts , 2nd, 3rd

Montreal has also demonstrated they are unwilling to risk significant picks. They could have easily offered the next bracket up (2 first, 2nd, 3rd) for Aho but shy'd away from that extra first. Do you think that they value Marner at 3 firsts more than Aho?

 

[Nooodles]

Canes will match the offersheet today (I dont know why, should have waited for 7 days to f*** the Habs over). Which means the Habs can do another one. Bergevin has lost it, I'm pretty sure he will offersheet Marner.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Montreal has also demonstrated they are unwilling to risk significant picks. They could have easily offered the next bracket up (2 first, 2nd, 3rd) for Aho but shy'd away from that extra first. Do you think that they value Marner at 3 firsts more than Aho?

My thinking is that making an offer for $10,568,500 is done with the idea that Toronto would match. Their goal is to push the price up for Toronto.

Again, I doubt it happens, but its something I fear when those more paranoid and suspicious moments take over.

 

[Heisen]

They've only said they will match, not when they'll send the fax. They could and should probably wait until the last day.

 

[dangomon]

My thinking is that making an offer for $10,568,500 is done with the idea that Toronto would match. Their goal is to push the price up for Toronto.

Again, I doubt it happens, but its something I fear when in those more paranoid and suspicious moments take over.

Montreal is desperate for a centre though, although Marner is a fantastic player. If they're going to keep on this OS rampage, Point is the much more likely target for Bergevin.

Maybe after TB matches he'll move on to Marner next, but I really don't see Montreal as a pressing issue in the immediate future. Maybe I'm wrong.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Montreal is desperate for a centre though, although Marner is a fantastic player. If they're going to keep on this OS rampage, Point is the much more likely target for Bergevin.

Maybe after TB matches he'll move on to Marner next, but I really don't see Montreal as a pressing issue in the immediate future. Maybe I'm wrong.

You could be right about that, although I'd say Marner drives plenty of offense from his wing position.

 

[Nylander88]

It's not the number I worry about as much as a team throwing out some nonsense in the area of 10mil per x 4yrs. Then we match and it walks Marner right into free agency. It's more so the term I worry with on an offer-sheet. The financial ballpark seems fairly set

 

[thewave]

It's not the number I worry about as much as a team throwing out some nonsense in the area of 10mil per x 4yrs. Then we match and it walks Marner right into free agency. It's more so the term I worry with on an offer-sheet. The financial ballpark seems fairly set

Yep that's the big danger here, more than any.

 

[Suntouchable13]

At this point, it might actually help us if he signs an offer sheet. Based on recent signings, it would most certainly be in a range whereby we would match the offer, and we could finally put this matter to rest.

Nobody will bother to offer sheet him in the range where Leafs will match. Don't count on it.

 

[inthe6ix]

They've only said they will match, not when they'll send the fax. They could and should probably wait until the last day.

they would be wise to wait it out the whole 7 days to screw the habs over but matching is not the issue

paying him out over 21M upfront and not being able to trade him for 12 months is less of a concern as the term bringing aho to ufa status

they'll match, but won't be happy about it

 

[napoleon in rags]

My thinking is that making an offer for $10,568,500 is done with the idea that Toronto would match. Their goal is to push the price up for Toronto.

Again, I doubt it happens, but its something I fear when those more paranoid and suspicious moments take over.

I don't think the GM's play that game. If I somehow connive to make my competitor pay his hamburger flippers $50/hour, my hamburger flippers will soon want the same wage or more. I see it as cutting one's nose to spite one's face.

 

[Nooodles]

They've only said they will match, not when they'll send the fax. They could and should probably wait until the last day.

Doesnt matter, the Habs knows about the decision so now they can prepare for another offersheet or trade, whatever. The point was to wait 7 days and don't tell a clue about what you gonna do.

 

[ORRFForever]

If I was Montreal, I'd OS Marner at $8,118,640.99 per year for 4 years.

Montreal could lose a 1st, 2nd and 3rd, but could get Marner (cheap) for 4 years.

Whether Toronto matches or not, Marner gets to be a UFA in 4.

Toronto would be pissed but... what does Montreal care.

 

[Cor]

they would be wise to wait it out the whole 7 days to screw the habs over but matching is not the issue

paying him out over 21M upfront and not being able to trade him for 12 months is less of a concern as the term bringing aho to ufa status

they'll match, but won't be happy about it

I saw something said, that since the MTL media is trying to play up that Aho and Carolina don't like each other, that Carolina may make it official today just to put everything to rest and avoid that

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Montreal has also demonstrated they are unwilling to risk significant picks. They could have easily offered the next bracket up (2 first, 2nd, 3rd) for Aho but shy'd away from that extra first. Do you think that they value Marner at 3 firsts more than Aho?

Bergevin talked about this. Also the Leafs wouldn't be afraid to pay a contract up front like this because they literally structured the Tavares deal the exact same way.

Bergevin took a gamble and tried to take advantage of an owner that just lost $50 million trying to start up his own football league and thought the $21M in the first year would scare him off.

 

[HomerJLeafs]

I sure hope that some team offersheets $$$marner$$$. We match it and yaddy-dada we dont have to wait anymore for the "we can and we will"
Please Bergi do a 3, 4 or 6 year around 9 million offersheet thanks in advance.

 

[IPS]

Montreal has also demonstrated they are unwilling to risk significant picks. They could have easily offered the next bracket up (2 first, 2nd, 3rd) for Aho but shy'd away from that extra first. Do you think that they value Marner at 3 firsts more than Aho?

This is literally what I've been saying all along.

No team is even conceiving the risk of of those huge offersheet compensations. Not even a riverboat gambler like Bergevin was willing to risk it. I've said all along that the risk-to-reward is far too out of whack for any team to consider giving up a crazy amount of high picks for any RFA this year.

Now if people could stop believing the sensationalism nonsense from the media, that's be great. Just f***ing ignore it people, by clicking it and discussing it you're only giving them what they want.

The way Dreger turned himself into a media prostitute should go down as the most disgraceful display of journalism ever seen.

 

[Notsince67]

Nor should there be. Marner isn't worth his rumored ask - and I say that as someone who desperately wants to see him re-signed.

it is funny how perceptions can change in a hurry in this league. He seems pretty durable and if he can stay healthy for the next 4, he may achieve something not seen in a really long time. A player entering free agency with 4 to 5 90+ point seasons. A player of that stature is almost a lock for HHOF considerations after he retires. Now I know there are a lot of people here who doubt he can sustain this production but I see nothing in his game that points to a regression. He is responsible defensively while facing some of the toughest minutes of all forwards in the league.
I have watch a lot of hockey in my life and I can say that Marner is not an opportunistic player. He seeks the puck like a dog does a bone. He is an opportunistic creator. Losing a player like that in UFA is unprecedented in the league ( and I'm including Tavares). Dubas would be wise to find a way to make Marner feel like he isn't a wayward son. There is no way Matthews is 2+ million more valuable and I really feel that it will be proven beyond a doubt in the next few years.

 

[ORRFForever]

The way Dreger turned himself into a media prostitute should go down as the most disgraceful display of journalism ever seen.