Speculation: Marner’s Deal

[Vaive50]

if Mitch ends up with 85 points i think he'll get his 9 x8. Mitch is a very good player but he is not Kucherov good yet. Maybe he never gets a 100 point season.

For Mitch to end up with 85 points means that he'll only get 14 points in the remaining 20 games, that would be an absolute disaster compared to his season average of PPG. Even if he stays at his current PPG of 1.145, he'd finish with 94 points. If he has a strong finish, he can easily get 100 points.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Inexperience at the GM level is being exploited by seasoned player agents.

As I have been saying from the start prior to all 3 signings that the Tavares UFA contract will act as a magnet and draw all Leafs RFA contracts upwards, where AM will claim he is worth more than JT and his salary/AAV will be higher, and then MM will use Matthews as his reference point, and decide how much less than Auston the Marner camp is willing to take (as a hometown discount). Leafs internal pay scale far more significant than any of the other 30 NHL team direct player comparables.

My last summer predictions were;

Matthews @ $12 mil X 8 years
Tavares @ $11 mil X 7 years
Marner @ 10 mil X 8 years
Nylander @ $7.5 mil X 8 years.

PS. The outcome that has shocked me most is not the $$$ but rather Dubas getting only 5-6 years and not the full 8 years at those levels. The fact what other teams are doing with their RFA and league wide comparables might as well be tossed out the window, comes as no surprise to me at all.

Here’s my prediction.

Rantanen will sign something like 10x8

Marner will sign something like 10.5x5.

Many fans here will use the usual spin and say things like “It’s only .5 higher than Rantanen, not ideal but perfectly manageable” and they’ll completely ignore the importance of TERM in the deals.

 

[hotpaws]

McDavid 16.7%
Toews 15.2%
Malkin 14.8%
Kopitar 14%
Matthews 14%
Crosby 13.5%
Eichel 13.3%

I agree about the term...apparently he wanted 16.7% if he signed for 8 years.

players coming off there elc's

Mathews 14.63% x 5yrs

Toews 11.09% x 5yrs
Kopitar 11.99% x 7yrs
Eichel 13.33 x 8yrs
Crosby 17.3% x 5yrs
Malkin 15.34% x 5yrs
McDavid 16,67% x 8yrs

Mathews signed for a substantially higher cap % than Toews and Kopitar did coming off there elc's and more than Eichel got with 3 fewer years .

he signed for less than McD but also gave up 3 less ufa years and isn't on his same level

Sid and Geno signed for higher cap hits at the same term but both proved much more than AM had at the same time and AM will be hard pressed to get to Geno's level never mind Sid's .

as i said , AM's my favorite player but he got overpaid at that term

 

[ULF_55]

Here’s my prediction.

Rantanen will sign something like 10x8

Marner will sign something like 10.5x5.

Many fans here will use the usual spin and say things like “It’s only .5 higher than Rantanen, not ideal but perfectly manageable” and they’ll completely ignore the importance of TERM in the deals.

Once he signs a deal, he's just a player and can be dealt like any other player if the cap hit is too high.

 

[Vaive50]

I wish Nylander was putting up Nylander numbers....

He is definitely coming around, if he was centered by Matthews or JT, then he probably would be putting up more than Nylander numbers. His PPG for both of the last 2 years is about .74 and he has been on a .79 PPG over the last 14 games (11/14) starting when we beat the Caps 6-3 just before the all-star break.

 

[Mess]

My hope is Rattannen signs for 8 million per. And then Marner/agent doesn't have a leg to stand on..

Here is Marner's agent leg to stand on and that is based on Marner's ability to lure an offersheet out of just 1 of the rest of the NHL GMs.

Offer sheet compensation is based on the average salary of the league, and CapFriendly has released the final numbers for this summer. Below is the full breakdown, with the contract’s average annual value placing it in one of seven tiers:

$1,339,575 or less .................... No compensation
$1,339,576 to $2,029,659 ....... Third-round pick
$2,029,660 to $4,059,322 ....... Second-round pick
$4,059,323 to $6,088,980 ...... First and third-round picks
$6,088,981 to $8,118,641 ....... First, second and third-round picks
$8,118,642 to $10,148,302 .... Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $10,148,302 Four first-round picks

So if any NHL team is willing to give compensation picks in the terms of 2 X 1st + 2nd +3rd round pick that means that Marner's agent essentially has a 5 year X $10.148 AAV in his back pocket as leverage.

Why would Marner take less, if an OS and a Leafs matching would guarantee him >$10 mil?

PS. Its no secret that rumours of teams willing to OS Mitch have already surfaced in the public domain for open discussion. Darren Ferris Marner's agent leverage is OS thresholds.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Once he signs a deal, he's just a player and can be dealt like any other player if the cap hit is too high.

But his trade value plummits if hes hugely overpaid.

 

[Trapper]

players coming off there elc's

Mathews 14.63% x 5yrs

Toews 11.09% x 5yrs
Kopitar 11.99% x 7yrs
Eichel 13.33 x 8yrs
Crosby 17.3% x 5yrs
Malkin 15.34% x 5yrs
McDavid 16,67% x 8yrs

Mathews signed for a substantially higher cap % than Toews and Kopitar did coming off there elc's and more than Eichel got with 3 fewer years .

he signed for less than McD but also gave up 3 less ufa years and isn't on his same level

Sid and Geno signed for higher cap hits at the same term but both proved much more than AM had at the same time and AM will be hard pressed to get to Geno's level never mind Sid's .

as i said , AM's my favorite player but he got overpaid at that term

Pittsburgh also had the luxury to sign Crosby for how many years?
12 years? 104 million.

Should the CBA allow for a franchise signing?

What if Matthews was signed 10 years, 120 million.

 

[BlueForever75]

Here is Marner's agent leg to stand on and that is based on Marner's ability to lure an offersheet out of just 1 of the rest of the NHL GMs.

Offer sheet compensation is based on the average salary of the league, and CapFriendly has released the final numbers for this summer. Below is the full breakdown, with the contract’s average annual value placing it in one of seven tiers:

$1,339,575 or less .................... No compensation
$1,339,576 to $2,029,659 ....... Third-round pick
$2,029,660 to $4,059,322 ....... Second-round pick
$4,059,323 to $6,088,980 ...... First and third-round picks
$6,088,981 to $8,118,641 ....... First, second and third-round picks
$8,118,642 to $10,148,302 .... Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $10,148,302 Four first-round picks

So if any NHL team is willing to give compensation picks in the terms of 2 X 1st + 2nd +3rd round pick that means that Marner's agent essentially has a 5 year X $10.148 AAV in his back pocket as leverage.

Why would Marner take less, if an OS and a Leafs matching would guarantee him >$10 mil?

PS. Its no secret that rumours of teams willing to OS Mitch have already surfaced in the public domain for open discussion. Darren Ferris Marner's agent leverage is OS thresholds.

So then if its an option I dare Marner to do so. If he feels that the extra million a season on a 5-6 year deal makes him happy. Then go ahead.

The Leafs will definitely match what ever it is, and then ship his unloyal butt to Arizona or something for a larger return. This is why players do not sign OS, or teams for that matter sign other teams RFA. Cause the outcome can be a disaster for both team signing the OS and the player.

You think it will go over well with Leafs brass and fans that Marner signed an OS with another team? Better yet you think that a team out there has the guts to OS a Leaf player? I dare it. Bring it on. Only will end poorly for both Marner and other organization.

 

[Marshy]

Eh if a GM actually falls for the old "bait and switch" agent tactic - then they are literally letting agents have it both ways.

Do you want to use league comparables OR internal team pay structure? It can't fluctuate from situation to situation.

Dubas isn't negotiating these contracts on his own. He's got Gilman and Pridham to help. I don't buy the old "inexperienced GM" angle here.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Here is Marner's agent leg to stand on and that is based on Marner's ability to lure an offersheet out of just 1 of the rest of the NHL GMs.

Offer sheet compensation is based on the average salary of the league, and CapFriendly has released the final numbers for this summer. Below is the full breakdown, with the contract’s average annual value placing it in one of seven tiers:

$1,339,575 or less .................... No compensation
$1,339,576 to $2,029,659 ....... Third-round pick
$2,029,660 to $4,059,322 ....... Second-round pick
$4,059,323 to $6,088,980 ...... First and third-round picks
$6,088,981 to $8,118,641 ....... First, second and third-round picks
$8,118,642 to $10,148,302 .... Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $10,148,302 Four first-round picks

So if any NHL team is willing to give compensation picks in the terms of 2 X 1st + 2nd +3rd round pick that means that Marner's agent essentially has a 5 year X $10.148 AAV in his back pocket as leverage.

Why would Marner take less, if an OS and a Leafs matching would guarantee him >$10 mil?

PS. Its no secret that rumours of teams willing to OS Mitch have already surfaced in the public domain for open discussion. Darren Ferris Marner's agent leverage is OS thresholds.

This would apply to Rantanen as well, right?

 

[Mess]

Yep, the shorter term on Matthews has to be based on the fact they couldn't get a longer term deal with a reasonable cap hit.

Only positive is, until they change the CBA, the home team can offer another full year at top dollar.
If team A offers 7 years 14 million, Leafs can offer 8 years 14 million, in 6 years.
If Matthews is more interested in chasing the dollar, they could deal him at the deadline rather than have him Tavares them.

Slight correction on that .. .Dubas gave Matthews a full NMC in his final year of his deal preventing Leafs from dealing him without Matthews full consent to waive his no move clause.

Auston Matthews - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

So if Matthews enters year #5 of his current deal without a new extension than full control is in AM hands including Leafs risking him being Tavares'd and seeing him walk away for free if his next contract terms are not met. That protection clause itself adds to the overpayment discussion of Dubas backing himself into a corner that could result in an even bigger overpayment on Auston's next deal.

 

[realgoodleafs]

Marner deserves around 6x10 million if you compare him to Nylander.

 

[hotpaws]

Pittsburgh also had the luxury to sign Crosby for how many years?
12 years? 104 million.

Should the CBA allow for a franchise signing?

What if Matthews was signed 10 years, 120 million.

Sid's third deal was 12yrs , his contract coming off his elc was for 5yrs as i listed in the post you replied too so i have no idea what your point is .

also Sid's current 12 yr deal ends when he's 37 and i doubt he retires at 34 before his actual salary drops to 3m for the last 3 seasons so it doesn't fall into Hossa type back sliding deals when the players are much older and come down with mysterious career ending injuries

 

[Notsince67]

I'm a little puzzled over the Nylander fanatics hoping that Marner gets below 10MM to the extent of dismissing everything he has accomplished. If he is below 10MM (which I hope to be true but I really doubt), the amount of love Marner will get relative to Willy will just increase exponentially. My all accounts, the antagonism will just increase unless Willy can budge his long term production to a point a game. Willy will be in the crosshairs of every trade proposal.
Advanced stats wizards will constantly hype corsi yet are blind to the very thing that advanced stats don't capture...elite passing.
You are blind to a player who is so good, it is hard to imagine how much better he will become.
Do a "Marner" forum search on the Bruins board. Our own rivals seem to think by a large majority that Marner is the best player on the leafs including Matthews. They are always fantasizing about offersheeting him. He strikes fear in the very team who many here doubt we can beat. They are our division rivals and they have watched games.
But yeah...let's trade him for a bunch of lottery tickets (1st round picks) in the hopes of overpaying an aging guy with the cap relief, who will bust in a couple of years.
You will spend the next few decades wondering why you cant find the same success at finding another player who is as good as one of the best players the leafs have drafted in it's history

 

[Trapper]

Sid's 3rd deal was 12yrs , his contract coming off his elc was for 5yrs as i listed in the post you replied too so i have no idea what your point is .

also Sid's current 12 yr deal ends when he's 37 and i doubt he retires at 34 before when his actual salary drops to 3m for the last 3 seasons so it doesn't fall into Hossa type back sliding deals when the players are much older and come down with mysterious career ending injuries

I’m just referring to what seems to be the elimination of that 2nd deal.
Like many players, ELC, next deal, long term deal. But the Crosby 2nd deal seems to be dying.

Wasn’t really a point I was just asking about your point of view in should the 7 or 8 year deal be lifted for 1 player per team?
A franchise player that maybe you can control the cap better and pay the player.

 

[Mess]

This would apply to Rantanen as well, right?

Sure CBA works the same for everyone.

The key here though is that you need a team willing to make the OS, & then believe they also have a chance of stealing that player away. Avs have one of the lowest salaries in the entire NHL with oodles of free cap space. Making an OS for Rantanen would essentially be a waste of time with little to no chance that it have any success of working. Might as well just try and acquire Rantanen in trade instead.

What makes the Leafs situation unique is that Leafs are heading for cap hell next year and an OS for Marner would put the Leafs above the cap ceiling and that makes it more difficult to match.

Marner's agent has legit OS leverage and Leafs team salary cap limited space increases pressure on Dubas to capitulate to their salary demands.

Rantanten could sign an $8 X 8 deal and Marner's agent could say "so what". Mitch deserves to get paid as Leaf and in accordance to his own teammates and his impact on the Leafs (likely as the teams highest scorer in back to back seasons). What Matthews and Tavares are making far more relevant than what Rantanen might get. IMO

 

[hotpaws]

I’m just referring to what seems to be the elimination of that 2nd deal.
Like many players, ELC, next deal, long term deal. But the Crosby 2nd deal seems to be dying.

Wasn’t really a point I was just asking about your point of view in should the 7 or 8 year deal be lifted for 1 player per team?
A franchise player that maybe you can control the cap better and pay the player.

even if we accept the dead second deal concept it still doesn't justify the money AM got for 5yrs compared to what McDavid/Eichel signed for

i like the cap even if it f***s us since i'm not interested in a MLB model where small markets are used as feeders for the big spenders for the most part . We still have have plenty of advantages as a rich team but it allows the small markets to compete which i believe makes for a much more entertaining product .

 

[Marshy]

Sure CBA works the same for everyone.

The key here though is that you need a team willing to make the OS, & then believe they also have a chance of stealing that player away. Avs have one of the lowest salaries in the entire NHL with oodles of free cap space.

What makes the Leafs situation unique is that Leafs are heading for cap hell next year and an OS for Marner would put the Leafs above the cap ceiling and that makes it more difficult to match.

Marner's agent has legit OS leverage and Leafs team salary cap limited space increases pressure on Dubas to capitulate to their salary demands.

Rantanten could sign an $8 X 8 deal and Marner's agent could say "so what". Mitch deserves to get paid as Leaf and in accordance to his own teammates and his impact on the Leafs (likely as the teams highest scorer in back to back seasons). What Matthews and Tavares are making far more relevant than what Rantanen might get. IMO

Nope. He deserves to get paid what he thinks he's worth if he's willing to hold out or play for another team.

 

[egd27]

I'm past the point of caring.

Get him signed and then figure out the next move.

 

[BlueForever75]

All I am saying is if Marner is willing to sign an OS with another team, it will be the worst move of his career. Means that hockey means nothing to him if he's willing to play it outside of his hometown and country in a smaller market. Cause that in the end is what is going to happen.

He can skate around the ice in Carolina after games they win making fools of themselves and a mockery of the game. Have fun.

 

[4thline]

even if we accept the dead second deal concept it still doesn't justify the money AM got for 5yrs compared to what McDavid/Eichel signed for

That depends on three things
-where you think he fits between Eichel and McD
-your discount rate for each year of UFA foregone
-if you think having a public projection of Year 1 cap alters the equation vs. negotiating a year out (cap % at 83 vs 79.5)

At 95% of Cap adjusted McDavid (to 79.5, ignoring 83) Matthews gave up roughly 300k per year per UFA year withheld, translating to a UFA valuation of ~14+ million per year

 

[JT AM da real deal]

10.5M for 6 years is my bet

 

[kb]

this is cringeworthy

Hahaha....it is exactly how the other side acts.

Why do we even have sides on the same team, by the way?

 

[kb]

Marner has been non-existent the past 2-3 weeks. His point totals have dropped.

He also doesn't seem like he's having any fun anymore. On the go ahead goal against Montreal that Hyman scored he looked not himself. Very serious.

Maybe this contract talk has gotten to him. Or maybe teams have figured him out. Or maybe he is flat out tired. Who knows. But one thing is for certain, hes going through a tough stretch right now.

2pts in 6 games is below his average.

27 point pace. Bust.