Hamilton never had to worry about competing with an arena of comparable size in it's backyard. But it's not really the same situation. Hamilton paid a lot less and has a much bigger population and it wasn't counting on possible economic development to pay down the debt.
The Town of Markham has to pay out an amount similar to what Glendale had to pay out. Glendale had all sorts of promises that everything will be paid off from the surrounding economic development, parking revenue and ticket surcharges. The Job is a much bigger and newer arena than the US Airways Arena in downtown Phoenix.
Grandiose plans have a habit of failing to come to fruition. If these plans fail to come to fruition, Markham is screwed. Add to the fact that the arena is competing against the 11th busiest arena that's located downtown in a major city.
No matter how you slice it, what happened to Glendale should be a cautionary tale for EVERY community. You can't look at that city and say "It can't happen here." because it can. There is nothing special or privileged about Markham. It can just as easily collapse into it's own financial black hole of it's own making as much as any other community...
Again though, some big differences between the two municipalities.
- Median income for a household in Glendale is $45,015, in Markham it is $79,924.
- Both were/are counting on the arena to spur development, however development in Glendale was based around a mall. Markham is building a high density area that is already being developed, in accordance with provincial regulations to limit sprawl. The development charge will also be applied city-wide, as opposed to being restricted to the area surrounding the arena alone.
- The Toronto area is both larger and more wealthy than Phoenix.
- Rudy Bratty has done business for years in Markham, he's a billionaire, and he heads one of the largest development companies in Canada. He and his arena group have also volunteered to fund half the cost of the arena construction. Stark contrast to Steve Ellman.
- The Town of Markham has no outstanding debt. Glendale is pushing $1 billion.
- The Markham proposal makes no mention of a professional tenant, rather concerts and other events seem to be the primary source of revenue. The opposite is the case in Glendale.
I think there's two additional differences to point out here between Markham and Glendale:
(1) Hockey is already popular in the Markham (and greater Toronto) area, that certainly wasn't ever the case in Phoenix.
(2) The pay back is coming from developer fees to build new homes. These new homes are not at all dependent on the success of the arena - they will get built regardless. It will take roughly 200 homes per million dollars of government investment to get the money back. That's a decent week in Markham, in terms of new home building.
Sure that could change, but with the amount of immigration flocking to the GTA, and a complete lack of land in Toronto proper, the northern suburbs are expanding like wildfire. This isn't a hair-brained scheme to try to build up a retail area dependent on hockey fans stopping off for a few cold ones on the way home from a game in Glendale. The houses will come, and in fact already are on the way.
The area around the arena location has another big thing going for it - a Go Train stop, direct rail access to Union Station. That may or may not be fully utililized for arena traffic, but it virtually guarantees demand for homes in the area.
I'll throw in a 3rd major difference - corporate support. The 404 corridor is literally littered with office buildings, from Steeles up to Major Mackenzie. Canada's head office for IBM is about 2km from the site. There will be lots of corporate types within a few blocks of the arena, making for an easy commute after work for a 7pm game.
The only thing I don't like about the idea is that the arena is largely dependent on the 407 for transportation. Great highway, very convenient for arena goers, but very expensive, and most people avoid it like the plague. Streets like Warden, Kennedy, 14th Ave and Highway 7 really can't handle the traffic as-is, but with 17,000+ trying to get to and from an event, it will be chaos.