Confirmed with Link: Mark Kelley/Ryan Stewart let go

[x Tame Impala]

Lol my bad
I blame the Canadian metric system

my pint was every team starts with seven picks in the draft, Chicago came away with four NHL regulars from the 2010 draft…Hayes who refused to sign in Chicago in the 1st is a legit NHL star, Holl and Johns in the 2nd have had varying degrees of success AGAIN with other teams and Nordstrom ended up with a decent NHL career, a Cup, so having four successes is very decent draft

I think you're using the term 'success' very loosely. Having a decent NHL career isn't good enough considering we unloaded Byfuglien, Ladd, and Versteeg. The formula was supposed to be to trade away depth players for picks/prospects and grow those assets into impact NHLers. Holl is a 20 minute guy now but that didn't materialize until last season, and not to mention that he's doing this on the Leafs..a team with few to zero options for roster construction. Johns was looking to be a good top 4 dman but we'll never know because of injuries. Nordstrom was a decent 4th liner but he wasn't anywhere near as effective in that role as Kruger/Bolland/Madden. Kayes was a college draft pick mistake through and through, 3 years into his ridiculous contract and he's not even a 50 point player.

That's not a successful draft. That's a draft that produced fringe or irrelevant NHL talent

 

[ClydeLee]

I think you're using the term 'success' very loosely. Having a decent NHL career isn't good enough considering we unloaded Byfuglien, Ladd, and Versteeg. The formula was supposed to be to trade away depth players for picks/prospects and grow those assets into impact NHLers. Holl is a 20 minute guy now but that didn't materialize until last season, and not to mention that he's doing this on the Leafs..a team with few to zero options for roster construction. Johns was looking to be a good top 4 dman but we'll never know because of injuries. Nordstrom was a decent 4th liner but he wasn't anywhere near as effective in that role as Kruger/Bolland/Madden. Kayes was a college draft pick mistake through and through, 3 years into his ridiculous contract and he's not even a 50 point player.

That's not a successful draft. That's a draft that produced fringe or irrelevant NHL talent

Then your criteria is going to call the majority probably around 66% of drafts unsuccessful drafts if you can't call a draft with a bona-fide top 6 center in 1st round and 2 4-5 dmen successful... maybe you haven't looked enough at how often that's a better than not draft.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Then your criteria is going to call the majority probably around 66% of drafts unsuccessful drafts if you can't call a draft with a bona-fide top 6 center in 1st round and 2 4-5 dmen successful... maybe you haven't looked enough at how often that's a better than not draft.

We traded Byfuglien, Ladd, and Versteeg for ultimately nothing of value.

 

[coolhand]

We traded Byfuglien, Ladd, and Versteeg for ultimately nothing of value.

We traded them for cap space. Every GM knew it and wasn't about to give us much in return.

 

[ClydeLee]

We traded Byfuglien, Ladd, and Versteeg for ultimately nothing of value.

This is a larger scale of picture you're evaluating and not purely the scouting and drafting. That's a Bowman GM failure but not drafting failure. They did get Stalberg from Steeger though, I mean arguably the 2nd or full least important forward of 2013s cup run but apart. But you're talking success like they didn't succeed post Buff & Steeg... they won 2 cups!

Kevin Hayes was not signed by Stan out of his Junior year when Kayes wanted to. That does not negate the value of the draft pick because it wasn't signed when he could of

That Johns didn't play a game for the Blackhawks when traded in the Sharp trade doesn't negate him being a good draft pick. Like 25% of 2nd rounders succeed to the level he succeeded. Draft pick wise he was a success.

 

[hawksfan50]

So we left off reviewing the 2014 draft and so far Kelkey has failed on all the drafts from 2009 though 2014...nowto 2015 Draft:


Rd 1 = No pick.

Rd 2 #54 Graham Knott = bust.

Rd 3 #91 Dennis Gilbert = bust.

Rd 4 # 121 Ryan Shea = bust.

Rd 5 #151 Rayovac Bindra = bust

Rd 6 #164 Roy Radke = bust

#181 Jones Tuscola =bust

Rd#211 John Dahlstrom= bust.


Total bust draft. Under Kelkey's each!


What we coukd have picked instead:


@ #54 Vince Dunn (56) or
Jonas Siegenthaler (57) or
Oliver Kylintron (60)



@ # 91 Conor Garland (123)

@ #121 Kiril Kaprizov (135) or

Troy Terry (148)

@ #151 or at #164 Andrew Mangiapane

Tere is no other significant alternatives who are regulars in the NHL after Manalapan.

The point is Kelley gave us a total bust draft when if he had been more astute we could have had 4 guys currently starting and doing well in the NHL ...one a superstar if they had picked Kaprizov.


Verdict on Kelley"s 2015 draft= a uige Fail!

Next post the 2016 Draft review.

 

[hawksfan50]

Now the Kelley 2016 Draft for the Hawks:

Rd 1 No pick (again! Thanks Stan).

Rd 2 #39 Alex Debrincat = home run!
Is a home run enough to give an A
score for Kelkey or means 1 lucky pick
that occasionally happens?
This pick at least saved this draft from
total disaster.

#45 Chad Krys = bust

#50 Artur Kayumov= jury still out
...becomes a bustvifvthey do nit sign
him...probably 4C only potential if
he can stick in tge Show.

Rd 3 # 83 Wouter Peeters = bust.


Rd 4 #110 Lucas Carlsson...currently a 6D
in FLA ...but we got Riley Stillman from
FLA who was drafted 4 picks after
Carlsson in this draft at #114...
We can argue who is the better D or it is
a wash. But we will count Carlsson as
not a bust for Kelley.

#113 Nathan Noel = bust


Rd 5 #143 Mathias From =bust


Rd 6 #173 Blake Hillman = bust

Rd 7 #293 Jake Ryzcek = bust


So only 2 NHLers from 9picks on this draft (3 IF they sign Kayumov and if he makes and sticks in the Show).


Here is what wecoukld have had if Kelkey was better at hos craft:

@ #39 DEBRINCAT = no one betterc han this home run pick..Same.

@ # 45 Sam Girard (47)

@#50 Adam Fox (66) or
Ryan Lindgren (49)

@#110 or #113 Riley Stillman(114)

@#143 Brandon Hagel (159)...sur xwe got hom later as free agent but this is about Kelkey drafting NHL material .

Or Jesper Bratt (162)..

No alternatives any better than our busts at #173 and #203.



The indictment on Kelley is mostly for messing up picks 45 and 50 ...we could have any 2 of 3 very good dmen in Girard,Fox ,or Lindgren.

Kelley missed the boat by miles!

Verdict: Kelley hit home run with D'Cat but could have had 2 startng top 2-4 dnen for us ...he simply blew it badly.
Opportunity costs ...missed!

Kelley blew another draft desoute getting D-Cat.

 

[Kevin Musto]

Now the Kelley 2016 Draft for the Hawks:

Rd 1 No pick (again! Thanks Stan).

Rd 2 #39 Alex Debrincat = home run!
Is a home run enough to give an A
score for Kelkey or means 1 lucky pick
that occasionally happens?
This pick at least saved this draft from
total disaster.

#45 Chad Krys = bust

#50 Artur Kayumov= jury still out
...becomes a bustvifvthey do nit sign
him...probably 4C only potential if
he can stick in tge Show.

Rd 3 # 83 Wouter Peeters = bust.


Rd 4 #110 Lucas Carlsson...currently a 6D
in FLA ...but we got Riley Stillman from
FLA who was drafted 4 picks after
Carlsson in this draft at #114...
We can argue who is the better D or it is
a wash. But we will count Carlsson as
not a bust for Kelley.

#113 Nathan Noel = bust


Rd 5 #143 Mathias From =bust


Rd 6 #173 Blake Hillman = bust

Rd 7 #293 Jake Ryzcek = bust


So only 2 NHLers from 9picks on this draft (3 IF they sign Kayumov and if he makes and sticks in the Show).


Here is what wecoukld have had if Kelkey was better at hos craft:

@ #39 DEBRINCAT = no one betterc han this home run pick..Same.

@ # 45 Sam Girard (47)

@#50 Adam Fox (66) or
Ryan Lindgren (49)

@#110 or #113 Riley Stillman(114)

@#143 Brandon Hagel (159)...sur xwe got hom later as free agent but this is about Kelkey drafting NHL material .

Or Jesper Bratt (162)..

No alternatives any better than our busts at #173 and #203.



The indictment on Kelley is mostly for messing up picks 45 and 50 ...we could have any 2 of 3 very good dmen in Girard,Fox ,or Lindgren.

Kelley missed the boat by miles!

Verdict: Kelley hit home run with D'Cat but could have had 2 startng top 2-4 dnen for us ...he simply blew it badly.
Opportunity costs ...missed!

Kelley blew another draft desoute getting D-Cat.

Kelley doesn't get a pass for this draft.

The DeBrincat thing will never happen again. He's the only player in NHL history to produce that well in his draft year and not get picked in the 1st round.

A blind monkey could have made that pick.

Kelley blew the rest of that draft.

 

[hawksfan50]

I will now review Kelley'2017 draft for tge Hawks:

Rd 1 #29 Henri Jokiharju

.....again Kelkey not responsible for Stan's impatience with young D and trading them away .


Rd 2 #57 Ian Mitchell...Stan was in his small pmd phase ..

Jury still out... Still developing in Rockford ...or is he?

If he cannot stick in the show by next season he will be written off as a bust.

Rd 3 #70 Andrei Altybarnakyan ...also developing or not in Rockford..does notcseem to be a significant impact guyveven if he stickscas 4th liner in show..If he cannot make the Hawks he will go into the bust pile.

#90 Evan Barrett...another at Rockford...looks marginal and iffy to stick i the show...Coukd becanother bust.

Rd 4 #112 Tim Soderlund...already sent back to Sweden...could notveven imoact or stick in Rockford = bust.


#114 Roope Laavainen ...bust.

Rd 5 #144 Parker Foo= bust

#150 Jakob Galvtas on...could be 6 orc7th d on Hawks next season.. At least there is some hope for him to stick.

Rd 6 = no picks.


Rd 7 #215 Josh Ess...doubtful Hawjscsugn him .. so wasted pick.



Alternative picks:


@#29 Nicholas Hague (34) or
Jason Robertson (39)

Had we picked either of them they woukd be
starting for us on D or at Wing respectively .

@ #112 or #114 we shoukd have picked big And Skilled Drake Batherson (121) .. he woukd be great for us on ourx1stvorc2bdvline if we had done so... Kelkey blew it! AGAIN!


I can't find any alterbatives otger than what I pointed out.


Bit we coukdvhave had 2 significant pieces of legit inpactfil NHL players instead ofcsobfar ZERO with 2 maybe I Mitchell and Galvas who we still coukdvhavecdraftedvin tgeircsoitsvin addition .

So verdict:

Kelkey blew ANOTHER draft by his not recognizing the correct talent.


Tomorrow I will conclude my review of Kelley's 11 drafts from 2009 through 2019 with thh 2018 and 2019 drafts reviews.

I will not review the 2020 and 202 drafts as it is to soon on the development trail to comment on those as to hits or busts.

 

[ClydeLee]

Kelley doesn't get a pass for this draft.

The DeBrincat thing will never happen again. He's the only player in NHL history to produce that well in his draft year and not get picked in the 1st round.

A blind monkey could have made that pick.

Kelley blew the rest of that draft.

Didnt Every single team passed on debrincat yet I guess Kelley and Stan were the 1 eyed king.

By your and fiddys criteria, you can't conclude hardly any team ever having a successful good draft. Like a few teams in 2003 and that's about it apparently.

 

[Larmer83]

So we left off reviewing the 2014 draft and so far Kelkey has failed on all the drafts from 2009 though 2014

I get that people want to kick at Kelley now that he's out the door. But this has to be one of the dumbest takes in the history of HF.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

Arguing with fiddy will definitely lead to fruitful discussion.

 

[Giovi]

Arguing with fiddy will definitely lead to fruitful discussion.

I'm not sure why anyone is reading that nonsense.

 

[Larmer83]

Arguing with fiddy will definitely lead to fruitful discussion.

I consider it a public service announcement.

 

[ColbyChaos]

Didnt Every single team passed on debrincat yet I guess Kelley and Stan were the 1 eyed king.

By your and fiddys criteria, you can't conclude hardly any team ever having a successful good draft. Like a few teams in 2003 and that's about it apparently.

Theres always a common psychology with it. Once teams see a player get passed over the thought that "maybe they know something we dont" starts to creep up. DeBrincat was someone a lot of fans were hoping their teams would pick in that first round.


If 10 teams passed on McDavid and the 11th team picked him, that doesnt make the 11th team a genius. DCat was caught in the you cant teach size belief which was still pretty prevalent with smaller players not really succeeding the years prior besides MSL

 

[hawksfan50]

I will now continue with reviews of the Kelley 2018 and 2019 drafts and what we coukd have taken from thise still on the boards when we picked.

2018 Hawks Draft:


Rd 1 #8 Adam Boqvist = NHL regular...for Columbus since Stan traded him in the Seth Jones deal. Still with defensive issues. BUT take a look after 2 more seasons as he continues adding strength and experience...Jury still out.

#27 Nicholas Beaudin...now in Rockford but not progressing to pint of threatening for a regular job in the show...Neither enough offense or enough goidcdefense to get a regular job in the show yet or if ever...looks dubious as the correct pick in this spot.
High hopes notshowibg development improvement especialky since this is a 1st rounder.

Seems like another Kelkey miss. Want to see better by now.


Rd 2 = no pick.

Rd 3 #69 ... Jake Wise ...has had much better Sr. Yr in NCAA after transfer to Ohio State ..but still even if Hawks sign hom looks like only another bottom 6 guy....does not seem offensively gifted enough forca 2C at Show level...will Hawks give him s contract or justvanAHL cobtract to 1st prove from that level if he gets anNHL dead?


#74 Niklas Nordgren....smurf LW ...
injuries have plagued his development
in Finland...probably Hawks do not
give him a contract... showing well in
assists in tge Finish 2nd League but
could not stick when called up for
games in the top league (Liga)..
Hawks cannot have too many small
wingers ...so probably not goingvto be
signed and they will lose his rights.

Rd 4 #120 Phillip Kurashev
3rd orc4th line RW for Hawks but
marginal player ..offense does not
seem to be getting any better .
Hard to know if they keep him as
cheap 3rd or 4th liner of little impact,
or find a replacement .

Rd #5 #139 Mikael Hakkarainen
= bust..no longer in Hawks system.

Rd #6 #162 Alexis Gravel = bust ...no longer
In Hawks system.

Rd 7 #193 Josiah Slavin...cups of coffee with
the big club ...but did not show
well enough to stick ...so back to
Rockford to develop...though his
skating s not that good and that
could make him iffyvto ever stick
at the NHL level.

So what do Hawks have to show for this draft?

So far only a marginal bottom six wing in Kurashev and of course Seth Jones who we would not have gotten unless we havebup Boqvist....you can debate the merits of that deal in light of the 2022 1stvroundervlijely being used by Columbus plus the switcheroo ofc1stcroubderscwith Columbus in 2021 draft that cost us a much better pick spot in that 1stcround.

We cannot blane Kelkey forcStan's trades ...


So basically he hit on a n NHL dman in Boqvist (though whether Boqvist will ever bectop 2 or top4 D or only 3rd pair at evens is uo for question) plus a marginal botyom six wing in Kurashev(he made a better Center than wing but since he cannotcwin draws ,thatvis not in tge cards).


Now the alternative draft that coukd have been if Kelley was better at talent/contribution projection:


@#8 Noah Dobson (12) OR
Evan Bouchard (10) OR
K'andre Miller (22(

So i) Would Stan have traded any of them for S Jones as he did Boqvist and the picks?

If so ,it does not matter anyway.

If not then itvcoukd have mattered a lot
which of the above we picked instead of
Boqvist.

I leave it tough you to debate on the
merits who Keljey shoukd have picked.



@ #27 Rasmus Sandin = better than Beaudin.

@ #69 NATHAN SMITH (91( a terrific 1C
for Minnesota State ...great steal
by the Jets who got him so late.
Where was Kelkey's talent evaluation
in missing on such orientation?

Obviously Wise was the wrong C to
pick.
Yes plenty of NHL GMs also missed on
Smith but even if Hawks took Wise
THEY STILL coukd ALSO have drafted
SMITH at #74 instead of smurf
Nordgre!

@ #74 Lindsay Karlsson () #87


@ #120 Kurashec= same

@ #139 Yegor Shangarovich (#141)
instead of bust Hakkarainen.


At #+62 and #193 no better alternatives renaining than Gravel and Skavin...so probably takevtgesecoucks anyway..



Tge point is.. Again there were clear missed opportunities even After round 1 that has shown por judgementbon Kelkey's part for not recognizing the correct talent.


So he blew anotger draft in my opinion.


Next post on t Keljey's 2019 Draft.

 

[hawksfan50]

Continuing with Kelley's 2019 Hawks Draft:

Rd 1 #3 Kirby Dach

Rd #43 Alex Vlasic**

Rd 3 = no pick

Rd 4 #105 Michael Teply

#123 Antti Saarela


Rd 5 = no pick.

Rd 6 #167 Dominic Basse***

Rd 7 Cole Moberg = bust ...not in system.


Teply is in Rockford.. Saarela in Finland and they have not been given a chance yet
to compete for job in the show... Jury still
waiting ...but no slam dunk guaranteed as development continues.

* Expect Hawss will sign Vlasic when his schooling is over.after next season (he is only a Jr. in at Boston U.. He would compete for a 2nd or 3rd pair LD spot in a defensive dman role ...not going to get much offense .If he does not make it out of the gate he will start in Rockford in that D mix.


**Hard to say if Hawks give Basse a deal after he finishes school with Colorado College... he gets bombarded with lots of shots on goal which affects his stats negatively ...
Certainly Hawks higher on Commesso and his better stats ...so maybe they do not Basse, He is only in his Sophomore year...so still 2 more years to improve and to show he deserves a contract.
-------------

Alternative Draft...who we might have picked instead:


@ #3 Trevor Zegras (9) or
Moritz Seider (6) or
Dylan Cozens (7( or
Bowen Byram (4(

Most Hawks fans on these boards would take
any of them ahead of Kirby Dach NOW...but wulk it be the sane will be 3 years from now?.

Zegras putting up double the points off Dach but he is not very good d defensively...

Hawks were looking a Big body C anyway to prepare for Toews eventual replacement
Not a winger ...they only alternative was Cozens as a Big ...C

Seider could be the greatest of all these guys . Already very impressed with the big Dman and how he has impacted in Detroit this season.

Byram benefits from playingvwith actio team in Colorado. .probably if with Hawks .

Early resuktscshow Dach running last in this impact comparison ...havectobre-asses impacts in a few morecyears to see if Dach starts producing more or not. Abd will it be at C or at L
LW? So far he is behibdctge curve in this comparison.

@ # 43 Vlasic = same


@#105 Teply = same

@ #123 Here might have taken Arsenault Gritsyuk(#129-NJ) who had a good year in thevKHL . Although since tge NHL has ended its Agreement with tge KHL it may be impossible now to sign too Russian KHL free agent draftees....so I guess we see what happens with Saarela as to signing hom or not.


So apart from roundv1 there does not seem like lije we could havecdone any bettercwith thecrest of our draft.

I woukdchooecDachbimorovrscforca long NHL career in Chicago and that Vlasic too can be a better defender than any of our current LD ...of he us not then we better hope tge rest ofvourvKD prospects can fill that side with better defense and impact.

Si a bit early to judge this draft but hopefully Dach improves and Vlasic grabs a spot when he gets his chance. After another year at Boston U.

SoU guess we still mustcwaitvawhikevbefore fully judging this draft.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

The way I evaluate drafting is by looking at 1st and 2nd rounders. Any player that turns up good drafted in the 3rd or later is pretty much hitting the lottery.

I'd approach it the same way in the NFL. In MLB I look at the high money guys. Did they pay over slot?

NBA is a completely different animal because there is only two rounds.

 

[hawksfan50]

Ok... Hawks drafted 23 total of 1st and 2nd rounders from 2009 through 2019 drafts (do not evaluate 2020 or 2021 =too soon).

These 11 drafts had 11 1st .rounders and 12 2nd rounders though some years had no 1sts and other years no 2nds..


So of 23 potential "quality" picks ONLY 2 are on the Hawks roster today (D-Cat and Dach)...
Dach is only 1 of the 11 1stcrounders still on the roster.

D-Cat is the only 2nd rounder drafted that us on the Hawks roster.
Only 1 of the other 11 2nd rounders is playing for an NHL team on their roster currently (Saad).


Mitchell Kayumov and Vlasic are 2nd rounders that might or might not make the Hawks or another NHL roster in future.

7 1st rounders drafted by the Hawks are playing on other NHL teams rosters today.
Several were traded to those other teams.
K.Hayes bolted to sign in NYR as a free agent after College ...he now plays for Philadelphia.

So you could say that Kelley was 8/11 "hits" as NHL starters in his 1st rounders....but conversely that only 1 (Dach) of these firsts is still here is not the usual way NHL teams treat or develop the majority of their 1st rounders..
Beaudin is Rockford with doubts he ever sticks in the Show.7


Yes...you cannot blame Kelkey for trading away 6 firstsxand for Hayes bolting to free Gency to sign with NYR.

STILL THAT ONLY 2 /23 are in the current Hawjs squad is a disgraceful quantity...blame Stan for the trades of so many 1sts after being deemed not worthy of keeping...or blame Kelkey for not drafting enough talented players that forced them to stick in the eyes of Hawks top brass.

Either way only 2 of 23 is pretty bad...Even IF all 3 of MITCHELL KAYUMOV and VLASiC make the Hawks rosterbin future that still is only 5/23....6 if Beaudin ever sticks (doubtful).


So whether 2 /23 or even 6/23 from thec1stcabd 2nd made the Hawks roster...that still is bad.

I do notsee how Kelley gets that high a mark forctgese drafts....and especialky considering the quality of many of the alternatives he coukd have selected instead of who he picked.

 

[TLEH]

I think the 2016 draft is underrated bad. The platform was there to easily have an insane draft and they just blew it

 

[Kevin Musto]

I think the 2016 draft is underrated bad. The platform was there to easily have an insane draft and they just blew it

The 2016 draft was awful.

They literally got lucky with DeBrincat and that's it. Which should have never happened.

Every other pick sucked, and if DeBrincat didn't fall they would have drafted a bust with the 39th pick.

They took Krys over Sam Girard, even though Girard's productive was insane and he was clearly being overlooked. Meanwhile Krys was considered a reach, and yet they went for the bust regardless because Kelley was too lazy to scout outside the US.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Bowman and Kelley were obsessed with SHL and USHL players to a fault

 

[Putt Pirate]

The 2016 draft was awful.

They literally got lucky with DeBrincat and that's it. Which should have never happened.

Every other pick sucked, and if DeBrincat didn't fall they would have drafted a bust with the 39th pick.

They took Krys over Sam Girard, even though Girard's productive was insane and he was clearly being overlooked. Meanwhile Krys was considered a reach, and yet they went for the bust regardless because Kelley was too lazy to scout outside the US.

I agree they seemed to be micro focused on the US prospects to a fault during the draft.

 

[hockeydoug]

We traded Byfuglien, Ladd, and Versteeg for ultimately nothing of value.

They picked right with the cap space. 2 million in capspace more than offsets a 4th line player.

Not sure why capspace in trades is so undervalued. They stuck the landing on who to keep from Summer 2008 on after Tallon's mess.

On Kelley, given the late picks and the mess of a department he inherited, I think he got alot more out of his first 9 drafts than he should have. I'm not judging a scout for pick #50 and later, especially when the Hawks were taking so many players other teams were willing to take in trade. Something to be said for picking so many players other teams wanted. Kelley was probably Tallon's best move.

Obviously the shelf life expired and I'm excited for the change, but given the low likelihood of draft picks doing well where the Hawks were taking players, I think he did above average in the aggregate. So many teams did so much worse with so much more.

 

[giza]

This analysis of who they didn't pick while they could have is nice around the poker table, but hindsight is always 20/20. The important questions are:

1. what % of your team is home grown and are you a playoff contender with them
2. what % of your draft plays in the NHL (anywhere)
3. if drafting in the Top 10, do you find impact players

That's what I look at.