Speculation: Marcus Johansson's Next Contract

[txpd]

What you keep missing, willfully it seems, is that I'm talking about pressure from the opposition. In no way is anyone gameplanning around Johansson and Ward to the point where they have to think about whether to send out the shutdown pair against Ovechkin or not.

Many star forwards around the league have the luxury of having a 1st line caliber forward or two on their second line. And they benefit tremendously from that.

when semin was at his best, opposition didn't game plan for him. they sent their top pair out against ov. the caps are not going to get a second scorer that will force teams to come off ovechkin.

if Mike Green were scoring as many ppg's as Ov, the pk would still take away ov and make Green beat them.

Do teams playing the Penguins take their top checkers off Crosby to check Malkin?

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

40 goal scorers are most team's #1 scorers. How do you suppose the Caps get one of those without drafting them like Bura and Kuz?

Funny how you omit the recent Caps draftee most likely to hit 40 goals in his career.

And I must've missed the super secret drafts where Pittsburgh picked Neal and Kunitz, Chicago picked Hossa and Sharp and LA picked Gaborik and Carter.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

I've been, historically, one of the bigger Mojo defenders on this site, and I think this season is the time to move him.

His stock is reaching a high point, but he's a guy that's going to peak at 28-29, and the Caps need to make a run while Ovechkin is still producing. Pursue someone that can battle, and still provide good production (Hanzal, Ladd, etc.).

 

[g00n]

I've been, historically, one of the bigger Mojo defenders on this site, and I think this season is the time to move him.

His stock is reaching a high point, but he's a guy that's going to peak at 28-29, and the Caps need to make a run while Ovechkin is still producing. Pursue someone that can battle, and still provide good production (Hanzal, Ladd, etc.).

I'm starting to think this way as well. Mojo's improved play is the most recent impression we have of him so it's the strongest. But the honeymoon period and a lesser role on the 2nd line wing in a contract year may be the perfect storm of factors that have him at his highest point. I don't know if we can count on him once a new contract is inked, or if we'll be able to afford the price if he keeps producing.

I'm not a contract guy, but don't the Caps get some kind of compensation if they make an offer, he refuses and then signs somewhere else? That may be the best we can hope for if the Caps make a playoff run. If they're out of contention by TDL it may be a moot point as there will likely be a housecleaning anyway.

 

[ChibiPooky]

I've been, historically, one of the bigger Mojo defenders on this site, and I think this season is the time to move him.

His stock is reaching a high point, but he's a guy that's going to peak at 28-29, and the Caps need to make a run while Ovechkin is still producing. Pursue someone that can battle, and still provide good production (Hanzal, Ladd, etc.).

I'm curious how you arrived at the conclusion that he's going to peak at 28-29. Is there some sort of methodology for calculating that, a gut feeling, or somewhere in between?

Separately, if you want to trade high and you expect him to peak at 28 or 29, wouldn't the time to trade him be in 4 to 5 years? If you trade him now, prior to his peak, wouldn't you be sacrificing some value? Or had you already considered that and still think he's the best piece to move? Pay a premium to advance the development curve?

 

[Ajax1995]

What you keep missing, willfully it seems, is that I'm talking about pressure from the opposition. In no way is anyone gameplanning around Johansson and Ward to the point where they have to think about whether to send out the shutdown pair against Ovechkin or not.

Many star forwards around the league have the luxury of having a 1st line caliber forward or two on their second line. And they benefit tremendously from that.

There has never been a time since Ovechkin has been in DC that he was not seeing the other team's shutdown pair. For that to happen they would need to add one of the mere handful of forwards in the league better than Ovechkin and I'm sorry but that is never going to happen.

During the best offensive days of the Ovechkin era Ovechkin/Backstrom got the shutdown pair, Semin's line got the 2nd pair, and Fleischmann/Fehr got the 3rd pair. Semin never got the shutdown pair unless he was playing with Ovechkin. Even in the playoffs when Backstrom and Semin were together and Ovechkin played with Fedorov Ovechkin still got the shutdown pair because he was Alex Ovechkin MVP.

So I have to assume you feel these 1st liners playing on the Caps new 2nd line, and thus not getting the shutdown pair because Ovechkin's line gets that, will take pressure off Ovechkin by merely scoring goals, or pretty much the exact same thing Johansson and Ward have been doing so far this season...

 

[ChibiPooky]

I'm starting to think this way as well. Mojo's improved play is the most recent impression we have of him so it's the strongest. But the honeymoon period and a lesser role on the 2nd line wing in a contract year may be the perfect storm of factors that have him at his highest point. I don't know if we can count on him once a new contract is inked, or if we'll be able to afford the price if he keeps producing.

I'm not a contract guy, but don't the Caps get some kind of compensation if they make an offer, he refuses and then signs somewhere else? That may be the best we can hope for if the Caps make a playoff run. If they're out of contention by TDL it may be a moot point as there will likely be a housecleaning anyway.

If Johansson signs with another NHL team while he is a Caps RFA, the Capitals get draft pick(s) based on a sliding scale commensurate with the AAV of his contract.

 

[g00n]

If Johansson signs with another NHL team while he is a Caps RFA, the Capitals get draft pick(s) based on a sliding scale commensurate with the AAV of his contract.

That's what I thought. Didn't know it was based on contract value but that makes sense. I'm sure there are formulas upon formulas. Thanks.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Said it before, but most of MAJO's success so far this season I relate to the NHL style of hockey that's played in October and November where the checking game and physicality of the game is not emphasized as much as come March and the playoffs. MAJO's game is geared for play where he has time and room with the puck. That's not going to happen very often come March and the playoffs and in the last three games the Caps have played (Devils, Blues and even the Yotes), all three teams seemed to play a more defensive style and the result was not much was heard from MAJO. He had a nice wrap around goal a few games ago, but even watching him on the PP when he has the puck and is pressured the puck becomes a hot potato for him and he just wants to get rid of it no matter what the consequences are. He's the Swedish Tomas Fleischmann. Trade him!

 

[artilector]

Mojo's recent upswing has made his future very confusing. If Caps can resolve their cap plans and then move him for a clear upgrade, great. But that's hard. Most likely trading him would bring in a player with his own set of warts and unclear chemistry. Meh.

I guess, if we're talking about needing to clear cap space, he wouldn't be at the top of my list to move, although I guess it could come to that if Caps decide to stick with Green, Ward, etc. Otherwise, I don't think the Caps have resolved enough issues under Trotz to identify what exactly they need to be focusing on in a trade -- creating cap space, getting a legit scorer, or a grittier top 6, or an established 2C/3C.

Once the need becomes more clear (or if it's clear to smbdy already), then I guess yeah, MJ is a viable trading option. But if he continues to do well without asking for one-season based salary, would be tempted to keep him.

 

[ChibiPooky]

Trading Johansson right now would make Jason Chimera the team's second best healthy LW. This is not a good solution to the scoring problems.

 

[g00n]

Trading Johansson right now would make Jason Chimera the team's second best healthy LW. This is not a good solution to the scoring problems.

I'm not high on the trade option unless he's a piece in a big deal. I think you have to wait out the year and see how he produces. If he fizzles out the decision is easier but probably not as good compensation if he walks. If he does well then you reap the rewards from that this year and maybe get better picks if he walks. A lot probably has to do with how some other players fare and if they stay healthy.

Too early to tell. But I am always, ALWAYS skeptical of blah players who suddenly turn it on in a contract year. Too many bad signs in that.

 

[Capitlols]

I've seen enough of Mojo the past four years to know what he is. I'd be willing to move on from him, that's not to say I'd dump him for scraps, but if he can net something of need go for it.

 

[Ajax1995]

And I must've missed the super secret drafts where Pittsburgh picked Neal and Kunitz, Chicago picked Hossa and Sharp and LA picked Gaborik and Carter.

Sharp, Neal, and Kunitz were not the goal scorers they became before getting to Chicago and Pittsburgh.

Carter and Gaborik were damaged goods for different reasons that LA took on out of desperation in Carter's case or as a deadline rental in Gaborik's case, who they decided to resign. I'm perfectly fine with the Caps adding a rental scorer at the deadline and seeing what happens.

Hossa sure. He was a star with no baggage when the 'Hawks signed him but it took a sketchy cap circumventing deal to get him there.

Every one of those guys besides Hossa IMO if they had come to the Caps they would not be the players they are now because their organizations are just better in the case of Chicago and LA or they got to play with 2 of the very best centermen in the league in Pittsburgh.

 

[Ajax1995]

I've seen enough of Mojo the past four years to know what he is.

I can't even begin to tell you how absurd this logic is...

 

[Capitlols]

I can't even begin to tell you how absurd this logic is...

Good for you.

I don't buy into his hot start. He's a guy that's struggled to finish passes, plays a finesse game, loves drop passes, is average defensively, and already has a concussion history. If you think he'll blossom into something more, more power to you. I'd rather sell high.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

I'm curious how you arrived at the conclusion that he's going to peak at 28-29. Is there some sort of methodology for calculating that, a gut feeling, or somewhere in between?

Separately, if you want to trade high and you expect him to peak at 28 or 29, wouldn't the time to trade him be in 4 to 5 years? If you trade him now, prior to his peak, wouldn't you be sacrificing some value? Or had you already considered that and still think he's the best piece to move? Pay a premium to advance the development curve?

It's a guess at his peak. That's all anyone can have. It's based on how his game has progressed thus far and where I think his game can go. He still needs a fair bit of physical maturation, and I don't think we'll see that until his late 20s.

It's quite obvious why you'd trade him now vs. when he's at his peak: Ovechkin. He'll be 33-34 in 4-5 years. The Caps have to have some short term thinking in mind.

Also, the point when his trade value peaks and the point when his game peaks could be distinctly different for a number of reasons (contract, belief he can still play center, age).

 

[txpd]

its always bad when a player gets better like you had been hoping just when the contract ends. but this is a development player. he's still young. he wouldn't shoot. that was a major problem. now he is shooting and is tied for the team lead in goals.

I will say that the bash on his drop passes is funny...or just wrong. his primary skill is speed. speed by its nature pushes the defense back. that creates space behind him. so, he has been coached for years to drop pass when using his speed on the rush.

its like making fun of nylander for circling when his circles were so tight the opposition couldn't skate with him. signature. yes. joke? no

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Trading Johansson right now would make Jason Chimera the team's second best healthy LW. This is not a good solution to the scoring problems.

Unless the trade gets his replacement or allows you to shift some players around (Kuz to LW, for example). There's also the option of additional trades.

 

[Ajax1995]

Good for you.

I don't buy into his hot start. He's a guy that's struggled to finish passes, plays a finesse game, loves drop passes, is average defensively, and already has a concussion history. If you think he'll blossom into something more, more power to you. I'd rather sell high.

Yeah no point listing all the guys who at 24 were nowhere near the players they eventually became.

I'm not saying he will or won't become anything more. I'm just saying calling it now is absurd.

But by all means have at it...

 

[Halpysback*]

Trading Johansson right now would make Jason Chimera the team's second best healthy LW. This is not a good solution to the scoring problems.

Gotta keep Kuz anchoring that 4th line at all costs #CenterDepthProblems

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

Gotta keep Kuz anchoring that 4th line at all costs #CenterDepthProblems

Chimera is just lucky he's not a right wing, or we'd have to trade him away for nothing because we have too much depth there.

 

[Govechkin]

Seems like people are split on what they think he is worth IRT him staying here. I like his play this year a lot, but as a few have pointed out, can he bring this in April? What would you guys realistically like to see MoJo get if he continues this play through the Winter Classic?

I'd rather move someone like Brouwer at a position of strength (can move Kuzy to RW on a few lines if Ward Wilson etc are injured), maybe add a second or someone in the pipeline and try to get an upgrade somewhere.

Instead of trying to figure out lines, our depth would be
OV - Backstrom - Wilson
Mojo - Bura - Ward
Chimmer - Kuz - Fehr?
Laich - Fehr? - Kuz?
Potatoes - Beagle - Latta?
Brown? - Latta? - Volpatti

I think Brouwer and a 2nd going somewhere, could net someone slotting in at 2RW as a scorer, which moves some good pieces down the right side, or someone at 3C that's really a 2C making slumps or injury to Backstrom or Bura more palatable, and allows Kuz to shift back to RW and maybe make an appearance with Bura or OV at some point.

 

[artilector]

Seems like people are split on what they think he is worth IRT him staying here. I like his play this year a lot, but as a few have pointed out, can he bring this in April? What would you guys realistically like to see MoJo get if he continues this play through the Winter Classic?

I'd rather move someone like Brouwer at a position of strength (can move Kuzy to RW on a few lines if Ward Wilson etc are injured), maybe add a second or someone in the pipeline and try to get an upgrade somewhere.

Instead of trying to figure out lines, our depth would be
OV - Backstrom - Wilson
Mojo - Bura - Ward
Chimmer - Kuz - Fehr?
Laich - Fehr? - Kuz?
Potatoes - Beagle - Latta?
Brown? - Latta? - Volpatti

I think Brouwer and a 2nd going somewhere, could net someone slotting in at 2RW as a scorer, which moves some good pieces down the right side, or someone at 3C that's really a 2C making slumps or injury to Backstrom or Bura more palatable, and allows Kuz to shift back to RW and maybe make an appearance with Bura or OV at some point.

I think the Caps ought to focus on getting Ovi and Backstrom to be effective at ES, and all trade stuff has to be with that in mind. So first they need to evaluate whether they think Wilson will do the trick, perhaps experiment more with splitting them up, and ultimately decide what kind of complementary player is needed for Ovi and/or Backstrom -- and then pursue that guy with pretty much all assets in play to be traded or moved to make space -- Laich/Brouwer/Mojo/Ward/Green/Kuz/Orlov (as much as I'd like Kuz and Orlov to succeed as Caps).

But again, until Backstrom & Ovi get going, flipping pieces on the 3rd or even 2nd lines I think is a secondary concern or even a distraction. Especially considering that the 2nd and 3rd lines have more or less done their job at ES, and Bura is going to continue to improve.

 

[Capitlols]

Yeah no point listing all the guys who at 24 were nowhere near the players they eventually became.

I'm not saying he will or won't become anything more. I'm just saying calling it now is absurd.

But by all means have at it...

No point talking about all the guys who amounted to nothing more than what they were after four full seasons.

I don't find it absurd. How many seasons do you need to gauge a player. I really haven't seen him significantly improve any aspect of his game and the one thing he was touted for(speed) I hardly notice anymore.