News Article: Marc-Andre Fleury: Why the Penguins Should Bench Him

[Darth Vitale]

IMO Fleury is and always has been a top ten goaltender.

Depends on how you define it (and elite for that matter). Let's say he's 9 or 10. Are the top 30% of goalies "elite"? You get my point. That's why I think people need to stop throwing labels around and just pay attention to results over a long period of time.

 

[Ogrezilla]

The yoots are our future.

what is a yoot?

 

[Shockmaster]

in 08' he posted a .933 save% in the playoffs, so I'm gonna say that he had every bit as much to do with our cup finals appearance as Sid and Geno.

I get your point, having Sid and Geno helps a team win games. You still seem to not grasp our point, and that is that certain teams are harder to play for (in goal) if you want to have good stats. The facts are, the Pens give up fewer shots than most teams, but allow as many if not more quality scoring chances. Teams that give up more shots, but fewer quality chances by packing the slot, have goalies that should post better stats.

Also to note, most anyone who has ever played goalie at a somewhat competitive level or higher, will tell you that it is easier to play at the top of your game when you see consistent action in a game, than to play in a system where you don't see a shot for 5 minutes and then you get a prime chance against you.

Exactly what I've been saying all this time. To the stat sheet, all shots on goal are the same. I've been mocked in this thread for saying "watch the game," but yo - watch the game. It's not hard to see that the Penguins give up more quality scoring opportunities than the likes of defensive-minded teams like the Canadiens, Rangers, and Devils.

 

[Ogelthorpe]

So goalies who face more shots have a better save percentage and those that face less have a lower save percentage? How confident are you in such a theory?

I'm very confident that you have a better chance at stats in a system like say NYR where they give up a lot of shots, but they are perimeter shots more than quality chances.

Example - team 1 gives up 3 goals on 25 shots, and 10 of those shots are quality chances. Team 2 gives up 3 goals on 40 shots, and 10 of those where quality chances. Goalie 1 stopped 7 quality chances and let in 3 and had a save% of .880. Goalie 2 stopped the SAME amount of QUALITY chances, and let in the SAME amount of QUALITY chances, but had a .925 save% because of seeing 15 extra non threatening shots.

Can you honestly not see how this gives you a better chance of having better stats?

 

[Chiquito]

I remember reading an article in the Edmonton Journal in the summer of 1988. The article was questioning the greatness of Mario Lemieux because of never leading the Penguins to the Playoffs. Paul Coffey was quoted defending his teammate in the article by saying "is Mark Lamb a better player than Mario Lemieux because he won a stanley cup? I do not think so." If you look hard enough to find faults in anyone, you can find them. Marc Andre Fleury is a great goalie. If he was on another team penguin fans will be thinking of ways to get him. We should be grateful we have him on our team. Look at Jonathan Quick this year..... his numbers are mediocre but LA would be crazy to bench him. Fleury is our number one goalie, and I would not have it any other way. The Philadelphia series last year was not one for the old resume but it was not a great series by most of the team. Fleury was a main reason why the Penguins had a GREAT regular season despite all the injuries they suffered as a team the last two or three years.

 

[Ogelthorpe]

Yes, let's pretend those other two games where we had a chance to close out the series didn't matter or could be used as an indicator of clutchness.

Oh I see your point, the Pens actually scored 2 goals in each of those games....How could you not win with that kind off offensive juggernaut in front of you.

 

[Ogelthorpe]

]Depends on how you define it (and elite for that matter). Let's say he's 9 or 10. Are the top 30% of goalies "elite"? You get my point. [/B]That's why I think people need to stop throwing labels around and just pay attention to results over a long period of time.

No, 15% are. There are 60 goalies in the NHL, to say 12%-15% are Elite goalies isn't that far of a reach.

 

[Ogrezilla]

I'm very confident that you have a better chance at stats in a system like say NYR where they give up a lot of shots, but they are perimeter shots more than quality chances.

Example - team 1 gives up 3 goals on 25 shots, and 10 of those shots are quality chances. Team 2 gives up 3 goals on 40 shots, and 10 of those where quality chances. Goalie 1 stopped 7 quality chances and let in 3 and had a save% of .880. Goalie 2 stopped the SAME amount of QUALITY chances, and let in the SAME amount of QUALITY chances, but had a .925 save% because of seeing 15 extra non threatening shots.

Can you honestly not see how this gives you a better chance of having better stats?

so now can you back up what you are saying? Does Fleury actually see more odd man rushes and prime scoring chances than the majority of the goalies in the league?

 

[Darth Vitale]

No, 15% are. There are 60 goalies in the NHL, to say 12%-15% are Elite goalies isn't that far of a reach.

SOrry bud, backups don't count in this conversation. Or shouldn't AFAIC. Vokoun the rare exception because he was a very good starter on a bad team for a long time.

 

[Ogelthorpe]

SOrry bud, backups don't count in this conversation. Or shouldn't AFAIC. Vokoun the rare exception because he was a very good starter on a bad team for a long time.

Why don't they count? They get a paycheck right? We have people talking about Tuuka Rask being Elite even though he has been a #1 for about 10 games now. So if backups don't count, he can't be elite because he has been Thomas' #2 for the last few years, and obviously a guy with 10 games as a #1 can't be elite.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Why don't they count? They get a paycheck right? We have people talking about Tuuka Rask being Elite even though he has been a #1 for about 10 games now. So if backups don't count, he can't be elite because he has been Thomas' #2 for the last few years, and obviously a guy with 10 games as a #1 can't be elite.

I think that's perfectly reasonable. I think the same can be said to anyone giving Schneider too much praise already. I honestly wouldn't call anyone elite who hasn't been a starter for at least two seasons. You see too many Steve Mason's come in and dominate only to struggle to ever repeat anything close to it.

 

[PensFanSince1989]

I still don't get why people care so much about the term 'elite'. It's such a subjective term.

 

[Malkin4Top6Wingerz]

I'm very confident that you have a better chance at stats in a system like say NYR where they give up a lot of shots, but they are perimeter shots more than quality chances.

Example - team 1 gives up 3 goals on 25 shots, and 10 of those shots are quality chances. Team 2 gives up 3 goals on 40 shots, and 10 of those where quality chances. Goalie 1 stopped 7 quality chances and let in 3 and had a save% of .880. Goalie 2 stopped the SAME amount of QUALITY chances, and let in the SAME amount of QUALITY chances, but had a .925 save% because of seeing 15 extra non threatening shots.

Can you honestly not see how this gives you a better chance of having better stats?

To buy this argument one would have to accept the initial false premise. I won't until you make a convincing argument that the Penguins have given up consistently higher quality scoring chances than the rest of the league over Fleury's career.

If Fleury were an elite level goalie held back by a poor defensive team we'd at least see him outperform his backups to a significant degree. We haven't. Since 06-07, Jocelyn Thibeault, Ty Conklin, Mathieu Garon, Brent Johnson, and Tomas Vokoun have posted a combined save percentage of .912. Fleury's save percentage over that same span? Also .912.

So there goes that argument.

Oh I see your point, the Pens actually scored 2 goals in each of those games....How could you not win with that kind off offensive juggernaut in front of you.

What does our offensive performance have to do with him having a GAA of > 6 in those games? Absolutely nothing. He played terrible in those games and that's all the matters for the purpose of this discussion.

 

[Malkin4Top6Wingerz]

Why don't they count? They get a paycheck right? We have people talking about Tuuka Rask being Elite even though he has been a #1 for about 10 games now. So if backups don't count, he can't be elite because he has been Thomas' #2 for the last few years, and obviously a guy with 10 games as a #1 can't be elite.

Rask split playing time equally with Thomas his rookie year and was their #1 during the playoffs. Nice try though.

But I guess Rask can't be elite because he didn't win the #1 job over a guy who won the Vezina twice in the last four years even though he put up nearly identical numbers.

 

[Ogelthorpe]

so now can you back up what you are saying? Does Fleury actually see more odd man rushes and prime scoring chances than the majority of the goalies in the league?

Unfortunately there isn't a quality chances stat that is archived, you basically have to get all of that during the game coverage. This is kind of my point though about stats, is that would Lundqvist still have the same numbers if he played for Columbus? comparing goalies under different teams, is like comparing players from different eras. Guys like Bernie Nichols, Peter Stastny, Pierre Turgeon, and even Dennis Maruk have had better Stat years than Sidney Crosby, does that mean that they were better players than Crosby? Were they even better for a season?

That is why this argument is impossible to get anywhere with. Stats are very hard to compare because every circumstance is different. IMO certain goalies are great fits for certain teams. I think MAF is a great fit for the Pens because they expect their goalie to make the outstanding save multiple times a game, where as Hank is perfect for the NYR because they require solid fundamental, positioning, and rebound control from there goalies, and nobody is better in those areas than Hank.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Unfortunately there isn't a quality chances stat that is archived, you basically have to get all of that during the game coverage. This is kind of my point though about stats, is that would Lundqvist still have the same numbers if he played for Columbus? comparing goalies under different teams, is like comparing players from different eras. Guys like Bernie Nichols, Peter Stastny, Pierre Turgeon, and even Dennis Maruk have had better Stat years than Sidney Crosby, does that mean that they were better players than Crosby? Were they even better for a season?

That is why this argument is impossible to get anywhere with. Stats are very hard to compare because every circumstance is different. IMO certain goalies are great fits for certain teams. I think MAF is a great fit for the Pens because they expect their goalie to make the outstanding save multiple times a game, where as Hank is perfect for the NYR because they require solid fundamental, positioning, and rebound control from there goalies, and nobody is better in those areas than Hank.

There's no doubt in my mind that Hank would be better than Fleury if he played for us too. I know that's not your point, but I'm just saying.

 

[Ogelthorpe]

To buy this argument one would have to accept the initial false premise. I won't until you make a convincing argument that the Penguins have given up consistently higher quality scoring chances than the rest of the league over Fleury's career.

If Fleury were an elite level goalie held back by a poor defensive team we'd at least see him outperform his backups to a significant degree. We haven't. Since 06-07, Jocelyn Thibeault, Ty Conklin, Mathieu Garon, Brent Johnson, and Tomas Vokoun have posted a combined save percentage of .912. Fleury's save percentage over that same span? Also .912.

So there goes that argument.



What does our offensive performance have to do with him having a GAA of > 6 in those games? Absolutely nothing. He played terrible in those games and that's all the matters for the purpose of this discussion.

Statement proves nothing. You've never played the game if you haven't seen players expect more from their starter, or play a little harder for a backup because they don't expect him to bail them out like a starter does. Various Pens have said multiple times through the years that they've given up at times a little because they got used to seeing MAF bail them out at times so they started to expect it every time. Now does that mean that every game the Pens play in front of backups is better than they play in front of MAF...NO, not saying that. However, there are times where expectations lead to variance in play.

 

[Ogelthorpe]

To buy this argument one would have to accept the initial false premise. I won't until you make a convincing argument that the Penguins have given up consistently higher quality scoring chances than the rest of the league over Fleury's career.

If Fleury were an elite level goalie held back by a poor defensive team we'd at least see him outperform his backups to a significant degree. We haven't. Since 06-07, Jocelyn Thibeault, Ty Conklin, Mathieu Garon, Brent Johnson, and Tomas Vokoun have posted a combined save percentage of .912. Fleury's save percentage over that same span? Also .912.

So there goes that argument.



What does our offensive performance have to do with him having a GAA of > 6 in those games? Absolutely nothing. He played terrible in those games and that's all the matters for the purpose of this discussion.

Reason number 2 this statement proves nothing- How many games did the backups play versus MAF? Look at the amount of games each has played in that same span.....Did each have the same workload over the years? Did they have to deal with the same amount physical/mental wear in each season?

 

[Ogelthorpe]

Rask split playing time equally with Thomas his rookie year and was their #1 during the playoffs. Nice try though.

But I guess Rask can't be elite because he didn't win the #1 job over a guy who won the Vezina twice in the last four years even though he put up nearly identical numbers.

I was making the point that #2s count in this league, using Rask as a prime example as to why they count. Do your due diligence before you make stupid statements!

PS, how did he do in those playoffs???? 2.61GAA and .910 Save%....yeah those numbers are so much better than MAF. Keep trying stat nerd.

 

[JTG]

what is a yoot?

 

[Malkin4Top6Wingerz]

Unfortunately there isn't a quality chances stat that is archived, you basically have to get all of that during the game coverage. This is kind of my point though about stats, is that would Lundqvist still have the same numbers if he played for Columbus? comparing goalies under different teams, is like comparing players from different eras. Guys like Bernie Nichols, Peter Stastny, Pierre Turgeon, and even Dennis Maruk have had better Stat years than Sidney Crosby, does that mean that they were better players than Crosby? Were they even better for a season?

Not a great comparison here since we can easily adjust the scoring from different eras to get a rough estimation on how their production would translate to today. There's no way to test Lundqvist's numbers playing behind Columbus's defense. I would bet on his performance staying pretty consistent with what he's done in New York, however. It's easy to look at Columbus and believe he'd get lit up but you have to rememeber they've had garbage goalies pretty much for the entire history of their franchise.

That is why this argument is impossible to get anywhere with. Stats are very hard to compare because every circumstance is different. IMO certain goalies are great fits for certain teams. I think MAF is a great fit for the Pens because they expect their goalie to make the outstanding save multiple times a game, where as Hank is perfect for the NYR because they require solid fundamental, positioning, and rebound control from there goalies, and nobody is better in those areas than Hank.

Sounds like the logic of a Ravens fan attempting to bridge the gap between his favorite quarterback and the best quarterback in the league. 'You see, Joe Flacco is a perfect fit for the Ravens and Aaron Rodgers is a perfect fit for the Packers. Who you would choose depends on the type of team you have.'

Statement proves nothing. You've never played the game if you haven't seen players expect more from their starter, or play a little harder for a backup because they don't expect him to bail them out like a starter does. Various Pens have said multiple times through the years that they've given up at times a little because they got used to seeing MAF bail them out at times so they started to expect it every time. Now does that mean that every game the Pens play in front of backups is better than they play in front of MAF...NO, not saying that. However, there are times where expectations lead to variance in play.

So you're saying that teams with great goalies play worse defense because they expect their mistakes to be bailed out? And Fleury, with his track record of bipolar play, mediocre numbers, and charmin soft goals has instilled such a level of confidence in his team?

Reason number 2 this statement proves nothing- How many games did the backups play versus MAF? Look at the amount of games each has played in that same span.....Did each have the same workload over the years? Did they have to deal with the same amount physical/mental wear in each season?

Do all of these excuses why MAF can't outperform his backups apply to other starters around the league too? This could get fun.

I was making the point that #2s count in this league, using Rask as a prime example as to why they count. Do your due diligence before you make stupid statements!

Your argument is still flawed. The 15th-20th best goalie in the league isn't that valuable of a commodity the way the 15th or 20th best forward / defenseman is. If an average starter is considered elite, then that word no longer holds any meaning.

PS, how did he do in those playoffs???? 2.61GAA and .910 Save%....yeah those numbers are so much better than MAF. Keep trying stat nerd.

His save percentage was actually .912, which is better than every playoff year for MAF except for one, and is a good bit higher than his career playoff save percentage.

It's funny to me. These die hard Fleury supporters can't make a legitimate case as to why Fleury is a top 10 goalie so they instead try to muddy up the discussion with hypotheticals and anecdotal evidence. What's ironic is that the same arguments can be made for weaker goalies to be put on the same level as MAF.

 

[Ogrezilla]

gotcha

you know what's scary? people like me are helping to educate these yoots

 

[Ogelthorpe]

Not a great comparison here since we can easily adjust the scoring from different eras to get a rough estimation on how their production would translate to today. There's no way to test Lundqvist's numbers playing behind Columbus's defense. I would bet on his performance staying pretty consistent with what he's done in New York, however. It's easy to look at Columbus and believe he'd get lit up but you have to rememeber they've had garbage goalies pretty much for the entire history of their franchise.



Sounds like the logic of a Ravens fan attempting to bridge the gap between his favorite quarterback and the best quarterback in the league. 'You see, Joe Flacco is a perfect fit for the Ravens and Aaron Rodgers is a perfect fit for the Packers. Who you would choose depends on the type of team you have.'



So you're saying that teams with great goalies play worse defense because they expect their mistakes to be bailed out? And Fleury, with his track record of bipolar play, mediocre numbers, and charmin soft goals has instilled such a level of confidence in his team?



Do all of these excuses why MAF can't outperform his backups apply to other starters around the league too? This could get fun.



Your argument is still flawed. The 15th-20th best goalie in the league isn't that valuable of a commodity the way the 15th or 20th best forward / defenseman is. If an average starter is considered elite, then that word no longer holds any meaning.



His save percentage was actually .912, which is better than every playoff year for MAF except for one, and is a good bit higher than his career playoff save percentage.

It's funny to me. These die hard Fleury supporters can't make a legitimate case as to why Fleury is a top 10 goalie so they instead try to muddy up the discussion with hypotheticals and anecdotal evidence. What's ironic is that the same arguments can be made for weaker goalies to be put on the same level as MAF.

The reason "we don't make legitimate cases" is because you just don't have any understanding of the position, and quite frankly, game in general. The only argument that you see as legitimate is one using number. You make the argument of a guy who never played the game, yet thinks the stats the computer shows him makes him an expert.

 

[SaturdayNightSlegr]

To answer the thread's title: I think it is asinine to bench MAF in favor of Vokoun.

I have been playing and watching hockey since 1989, a good amount of that in goal.

I think MAF is a top 6 or 7 goalie in the NHL.

I agree with the assertion that he isn't a "stats" goalie, like Fuhr and Tommy B. He needs to make one save a game - the save on the game-winning goal. I don't care if he let in two crap goals in a 6-2 blowout win, where it doesn't really matter. I don't care if he lets in two crap goals if we're getting blown out and lose 7-1.

Fun Fact: from the 08-09 season through this season
M. Brodeur: 2.36 GAA .911 Sv Pct
M. Brodeur's backups : 2.31 GAA .917 Sv Pct
good thing they didn't bench him in last year playoffs

(that said, I think Vokoun is a fantastic backup; and also a top 10-15 goalie in the NHL)

 

[LSnow]

AH...the stats argument again. Here is why the "stats" argument is not totally accurate. We all pretty much agree that Corey Perry is an elite winger. Now apply the "stats" argument that you use for goalies, and it proves all of us wrong. Corey Perry can't be elite because last year 38 wingers had better stats than Perry, including Kunitz, Radim Vrbata, Tomas Fleicshmann, and a bunch of others we consider no where near elite. So as you can see, strictly using this very flawed methodology, Corey Perry is far from elite.

Obviously Perry is elite. Fleury is not a stats goalie, but name on the cup, 2 finals appearances, #1 overall pick, NHL All-Star, member of Canadian Olympic team....yeah, that's pretty elite.

I watch majority of Anaheim's games and Corey Perry hasn't been elite winger last year nor this year. He was playing somewhat well last year if you factor that ducks as a whole sucked, he had his frustrating moments but this year he has been quite terrible. So stats are quite correct.