Sportsnet: Maple Leafs need to mend divided dressing room

[AustonMitchWilly]

LOL. You know they play for different teams now right?

LOL. You know it wasnt much different at the time the deal was done either.

You should know how to read, right?

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2014/6/30/5856516/carl-gunnarsson-vs-roman-polak

 

[Gary Nylund]

Its actually much worse than that.

Lets look at Corsi goals against 5v5 per 60 minutes (GA60).

If you take the NHL dman that have played a minumum of 300 minutes this year you have 187 NHL Dmen.

Roman Polak at 3.27 GA60 = #8th worst of 187 total.
verses
Carl Gunnarsson who is a 1.43 GA60 = #12th best in the NHL of 187

Polak and Gunnarsson are at the complete opposites of the scale defensively when on the ice for even strength goal against. Where only 11 NHL regular Dmen are better than Gunnar and only 7 NHL dmen are worse than Polak.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...300&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=A60&sortdir=DESC

This is a trade made by a GM that doesn't understand how to apply analytics to team building when you're trying to get better defensively.

And another person who doesn't want to consider that the two play for different teams.

Not saying there's nothing at all to this, but there is so much context missing here that you commenting on other people not knowing how to apply analytics is hilarious. You have proven over and over again that you know how to post numbers but understand little (if anything) about what those numbers mean.

If you're going to keep posting numbers, you should at least make an effort.

 

[Gary Nylund]

LOL. You know it wasnt much different at the time the deal was done either.

You should know how to read, right?

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2014/6/30/5856516/carl-gunnarsson-vs-roman-polak

Are there any other factors to be considered in your view? Or can we just sort by +- and see who the best players are on every team in your opinion?

 

[Gary Nylund]

yubbers:

If you're going give so much weight to +-, you must just hate the fact that Dion has the best +- on the Leafs defense.

 

[Gary Nylund]

We've been through this

Gunner had better everything last year than Polak playing for the worse defensive team in the leafs.

They're not comparable defenseman

Dion carried Gunnar last year, just like he is carrying Franson this year. I know you don't want to see that because you hate Dion so much but it's true.

 

[ToneBone03]

Many of you fail to see how bad that Gunner deal was.

We replaced our top defensive dman last year on the top line with Cody Franson. Enough said. He's put up some points so people have forgotten he's still just as bad defensively. Gunner is a plus 10 and Polak -10. That's not a tiny spread. Same point totals too. Maybe 1 up for Polak now with his assist the other night

YOU'RE one of the reasons were worse defensively Polak. Have that talk again with yourself in the mirror

To add a little context to your +/- argument:

Toronto
5v5: 84GF 87GA = -3
5v4: 6SH GA = -6
4v5: 6SH GF = +6
Net team +/- = -3

St. Louis
5v5: 77GF 63GA = +14
5v4: 1SH GA = -1
4v5: 1SH GF = +1
Net team +/- = +14

 

[Mess]

And another person who doesn't want to consider that the two play for different teams.

Not saying there's nothing at all to this, but there is so much context missing here that you commenting on other people not knowing how to apply analytics is hilarious. You have proven over and over again that you know how to post numbers but understand little (if anything) about what those numbers mean.

If you're going to keep posting numbers, you should at least make an effort.

The context is All NHL DMen in comparison.

Also I gave context earlier in the thread.

2013-14 = 256 goals against verses 2014-15 = 128 goals against /41 games [= 256 GA/82]

Leafs are on pace to give up the same amount of goals last year to this year. Polak is a team 2nd worse -10 while Gunnarsson was a team leading +13 when compared to the same team (Leafs) and the same volume of goals against rate. (256/season). That is a +23 5v5 goal differential swing.

 

[AustonMitchWilly]

Are there any other factors to be considered in your view? Or can we just sort by +- and see who the best players are on every team in your opinion?

Did you read the ****ing article? It didnt even use +/-. It used Corsi Rel QoC.

 

[ACC1224]

Dion carried Gunnar last year, just like he is carrying Franson this year. I know you don't want to see that because you hate Dion so much but it's true.

This.

Most would do that Polak trade again, great addition.

 

[CelticDruid]

yubbers:

If you're going give so much weight to +-, you must just hate the fact that Dion has the best +- on the Leafs defense.

Robidas is + 12 Phanoof is +4

 

[AustonMitchWilly]

Dion carried Gunnar last year, just like he is carrying Franson this year. I know you don't want to see that because you hate Dion so much but it's true.

I dont hate dion, but that means their Corsi and stats numbers shouldve been the same last year, and theyre not.

Can you explain that?

 

[ToneBone03]

Robidas is + 12 Phanoof is +4

Therefore, Robidas has been our best defenseman. Right guise?

 

[Nithoniniel]

That is the irony in play here in that Polak is calling out his teammates for their defensive play and yet he is actually the worst of the bunch himself.

He is calling out their willingness to do the defensive workload rather than their ability at it when doing so.

His GA/60 also has a lot to do with a bad PDO and some absurd zone starts. He was always going to be on for a lot of goals against.

Not saying that's the whole explanation, but it's part of it.

Its actually much worse than that.

Lets look at Corsi goals against 5v5 per 60 minutes (GA60).

If you take the NHL dman that have played a minumum of 300 minutes this year you have 187 NHL Dmen.

Roman Polak at 3.27 GA60 = #8th worst of 187 total.
verses
Carl Gunnarsson who is a 1.43 GA60 = #12th best in the NHL of 187

Polak and Gunnarsson are at the complete opposites of the scale defensively when on the ice for even strength goal against. Where only 11 NHL regular Dmen are better than Gunnar and only 7 NHL dmen are worse than Polak.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...300&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=A60&sortdir=DESC

This is a trade made by a GM that doesn't understand how to apply analytics to team building when you're trying to get better defensively.

You're forgetting to look at context.

Carl Gunnarsson is playing some of the easiest minutes possible next to a guy who should be a Norris candidate this year, with a very high PDO which indicates that he is getting some puck luck as well.

Roman Polak has been playing really tough minutes (they have eased up a bit from the start of the season though) most often next to a struggling Gardiner, and has a low PDO which indicates that he is on the opposite side of things, luck-wise.

Gunnarsson has performed better defensively all things considered, but Polak also provides some physicality and grit. The evaluation of that I leave to you, as I'm not quite sure myself how much value to put on that.

Therefore, Robidas has been our best defenseman. Right guise?

Robidas as an example is interesting when talking about Gunnarsson. He's got 1.42 GA/60 against 1.50 GA/60 for Gunnarsson, while playing tougher minutes. Yet Robidas has been repeatedly benched for his lack of impact on the game.

You should never look at things without taking context into account. Robidas is simply doing what Ranger did last year, not playing well but getting lucky and therefor not having it end up in his own net.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Robidas is + 12 Phanoof is +4

Oops, you got me there. More coffee for me LOL.

I dont hate dion, but that means their Corsi and stats numbers shouldve been the same last year, and theyre not.

Can you explain that?

You're gonna clarify if you expect me to understand what you're saying here.

Therefore, Robidas has been our best defenseman. Right guise?

Yup, makes sense to me.

 

[AustonMitchWilly]

You're forgetting to look at context.

Carl Gunnarsson is playing some of the easiest minutes possible next to a guy who should be a Norris candidate this year, with a very high PDO which indicates that he is getting some puck luck as well.

Roman Polak has been playing really tough minutes (they have eased up a bit from the start of the season though) most often next to a struggling Gardiner, and has a low PDO which indicates that he is on the opposite side of things, luck-wise.

Gunnarsson has performed better defensively all things considered, but Polak also provides some physicality and grit. The evaluation of that I leave to you, as I'm not quite sure myself how much value to put on that.

No. Corsi Relative to Quality of Competition was far greater for Gunnar than Polak. Polak was playing easier minutes, and was doing it worse.

Polak wasn't playing tougher minutes. Pietrangelo and Bouwmeester were. Gunnar was playing with Dion, who got all the defensive zone starts..


C'mon boys, you're all smarter than this.

 

[Gary Nylund]

He is calling out their willingness to do the defensive workload rather than their ability at it when doing so.

His GA/60 also has a lot to do with a bad PDO and some absurd zone starts. He was always going to be on for a lot of goals against.

Not saying that's the whole explanation, but it's part of it.

You're forgetting to look at context.

Carl Gunnarsson is playing some of the easiest minutes possible next to a guy who should be a Norris candidate this year, with a very high PDO which indicates that he is getting some puck luck as well.

Roman Polak has been playing really tough minutes (they have eased up a bit from the start of the season though) most often next to a struggling Gardiner, and has a low PDO which indicates that he is on the opposite side of things, luck-wise.

Gunnarsson has performed better defensively all things considered, but Polak also provides some physicality and grit. The evaluation of that I leave to you, as I'm not quite sure myself how much value to put on that.

Nice post!

Mess: I don't mean to pick on you, and you're not the only one guilty of this but it's just a pet peeve of mine - I hate stats without context. Just ... hate ... it.

+- on it's own is useless. Read the above post, and try to think for yourself - how many more things are there that could add context here. Perhaps you'll realize how shallow your argument is. Not saying you're completely wrong, just saying that based on what you posted alone, there's no way to tell and your post was far from a good example of how to "understand analytics" - if anything, it was a good example of the opposite.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Therefore, Robidas has been our best defenseman. Right guise?

No. Corsi Relative to Quality of Competition was far greater for Gunnar than Polak. Polak was playing easier minutes, and was doing it worse.

Polak wasn't playing tougher minutes. Pietrangelo and Bouwmeester were. Gunnar was playing with Dion, who got all the defensive zone starts..


C'mon boys, you're all smarter than this.

Well Corsi QoC has been shown to have very little effect, if you want to judge tough minutes you look at zone starts. That's where you find the differences.

Polak has some 37% off zone starts, while Gunnarsson had close to 60% if I remember. Some of the toughest against some of the easiest.

EDIT: In case someone else reads, Polak has the second toughest zone starts in the league. Gunnarsson is in the top 20 easiest. Factor in the luck-factor and well, it's much harder to say really.

Nice post!

Mess: I don't mean to pick on you, and you're not the only one guilty of this but it's just a pet peeve of mine - I hate stats without context. Just ... hate ... it.

+- on it's own is useless. Read the above post, and try to think for yourself - how many more things are there that could add context here. Perhaps you'll realize how shallow your argument is. Not saying you're completely wrong, just saying that based on what you posted alone, there's no way to tell and your post was far from a good example of how to "understand analytics" - if anything, it was a good example of the opposite.

Well he's not completely wrong, even if you include some context. If you only wanted to shore up goals against, then Gunnarsson does a better job than Polak. When looking at more things than that, it's not quite so clear anymore.

Oh, and thanks!

 

[AustonMitchWilly]

You're gonna clarify if you expect me to understand what you're saying here.

If Dion 'carried Gunnarsson all year like he is doing with Franson' then their Corsi numbers shouldve been the same. They weren't. Gunnar was our most responsible defenseman.

The corsi numbers prove that Gunnar was more successful on tougher opponents(and on a bad team) than Polak was against easier opponents on a good team.

 

[CellarDweller0]

I don’t have much time to post in here often, but I do always lurk. Sorry, if this rambles a bit, but I think this whole debate over Kessel is a little out of touch with where this organization is currently at. The Leafs as an organization (I teach organizational sociology at a college level) are moving from a dysfunctional organization to; hopefully, a more functional one with Brendan Shanahan at the helm. He was very cautious and careful at the beginning of his reign, as he should have been. He brought in guys he trusts; Dubas, Hunter, Horachek, Spott, etc. to help him evaluate. He gave Carlyle a chance to get the players to buy into his system. It didn’t work; he is now letting Horachek, a man he brought in and trusts evaluate players.

We keep hearing about how some players (we do not know who) refuse to play in a structured system based around a 200 ft. game that works in today’s NHL and that Shanahan wants to play. Phil Kessel, by all accounts is a player who struggles with playing defence. He is a sublime offensive talent and I do not believe for one minute that he could not contribute (or even feature) on a cup winning team. He could win a Conn Smythe, score 50 goals, etc. However, if he does not buy into playing a 200 ft. game with the Maple Leafs, it is better to move him.

When attempting to repair a dysfunctional organization; it is not a good move to say; you must play in our system or else you will be replaced and then turn around and allow players based upon their skill to remain despite not buying in. It sets the organization up for failure; new players, young players, etc. will view this as if you’re not talented enough you must play in the system, but if you’re talented the rules don’t apply. When this happens you end up with the same situation you have right now.

100% agree. Great post.

 

[AustonMitchWilly]

Polak has some 37% off zone starts, while Gunnarsson had close to 60% if I remember. Some of the toughest against some of the easiest.

Those numbers are taken at the time of the trade?

 

[Nithoniniel]

Those numbers are taken at the time of the trade?

No, I'm comparing the two of them on the season they're having now.

For last season, Gunnarsson's numbers blew Polak's out of the water. But I'm not sure how to relate to the extremely high PDO that Gunny had last year. With a PDO closer to career average, I don't think the numbers look all that good anymore.

 

[Mess]

Food for thought with Polak.

Leafs went 10-1-1 while Polak was on IR
&
Leafs are 2-8-0 in their last 10 since Roman returned from injury.

Roman's teammates seem to perform better when he isn't playing.

 

[Deebo]

Food for thought with Polak.

Leafs went 10-1-1 while Polak was on IR
&
Leafs are 2-8-0 in their last 10 since Roman returned from injury.

Roman's teammates seem to perform better when he isn't playing.

Do you think the losing streak is Polak's fault?

 

[ACC1224]

Food for thought with Polak.

Leafs went 10-1-1 while Polak was on IR
&
Leafs are 2-8-0 in their last 10 since Roman returned from injury.

Roman's teammates seem to perform better when he isn't playing.

Can you do the same for Komorov?

 

[AustonMitchWilly]

Polak has some 37% off zone starts, while Gunnarsson had close to 60% if I remember.

Nope.

After looking at the numbers Gunnar had lower OZFO%, NZFO%, and higher DZFO%, than Polak.