Make some bold predictions for this season

[Ranksu]

 

[BluesJaeger]

Since we have had a somewhat depressing set of bold predictions, here are the Pollyanna bold predictions.
1. Blues lose their first five games, but end up with a record of 55-20-7.
2. Tarasenko gets 45G and 37A for a 1.0 PPG.
3. Thomas gets 15G and 27A, but is just beaten out in points by Kyrou with 20G and 23A (Kyrou was called up at the 15-game mark.)
4. By seasons' end, the four established Centers are Schenn, Thomas, Fabbri, and Bozak with four equally balanced scoring lines.
5. Fabbri and Schwartz play 81 games, only missing one game when they run into each other during pre-game warm-ups.
6. All the new guys play well with each of them setting personal single season scoring records.
7. Pietrangelo finishes 2nd in Norris voting to his teammate Vince Dunn.
8. The Blues become the Clark Street Bullies, at least as much as they can under current NHL rules, and average over a fight a game (Bouw explains that it is what the fans want).
9. Yeo asks Hitch to come back as a "special assistant coach emeritus" after the first five losses.
10. Blues go 12-0 in Western Conference playoffs, play Tampa for the SC and...

 

[Brian39]

Agree with a lot of what you're saying here, but the bolded in particular is 100% true. Unfortunately, I think it is also true that last season we had the personnel to be much better than 30th on the PP...in other words, the issue is already the system rather than a lack of talented players.

Obviously adding players like ROR, Perron, Bozak, etc to an already talented PP crew is not going to hurt. However, I am hesitant to say that adding a guy who is very effective on the PP like ROR will automatically improve our PP. Because PP's are situations where the system plays such a large role in player outcomes, it's really hard to say if a player who was successful in one system will be similarly successful in another. One must look no further than our very own Brayden Schenn in Philly's system vs in Yeo's system last year.

Bottom line: it was unacceptable for our PP to suck as bad as it did last year, I think a lot of the blame rests with the coaching staff/system, and if Yeo and Co. can't achieve better results with this line up then heads need to roll. Like you say, with the amount of options they have, there's simply no excuse to have a bad PP. I guess my only gripe is really that they never had an excuse in the first place (if that makes sense).

The Athletic has a really good piece about ROR's PP usage and how it should translate to success with the Blues. One huge aspect is ROR's ability at the faceoff dot. Winning 5-10% more PP faceoffs with our PP1 unit will be huge. PP zone entries were one of the biggest issues we had last year and Schenn going right about 50% only exacerbated things. Having ROR who can go close to 60% will cover up that issue pretty well.

Additionally, a lack of a RHS forward hurt the PP last year. It shouldn't have hurt it as much as it did, but it limited schemes. The addition of Perron/Bozak and potentially Thomas/Kyrou means that we can draw up plays that require a RHS to act as a one-time threat from the left side or run a quick bumper play with Schenn like he was so good at with Giroux.

I agree that we should have been better than #30 with our personnel. However, the coaching staff's hands were tied a bit more than it appears on paper and the 2nd unit was about as bad as you'd expect when you see how much PP TOI was given to Bergie, Sobotka, Thompson, Jaskin and Sundqvist last year. I don't have a ton of faith in Yeo's PP coaching, but I'm willing to give him enough of the benefit of the doubt to predict that our PP jumps at least 18 spots in the rankings this year (Just to keep this on topic Easton )

 

[Brian39]

We also came in 18th OA on PK %. Despite the injuries, that to me is unacceptable, given the personnel at Yeo's disposal. PP is not the only problem. Special teams are a problem! I hope Yeo is on a short leash this coming season. I, for one, have no faith in him.

I put that ranking squarely on Allen. He was arguably the worst NHL goalie on the PK last season in almost every measurable stat.

52 goalies played 100+ minutes shorthanded last year. Allen was 46th in overall save percentage. the difference between his expected save percentage and his actual save percentage was 47th, his low danger SV% was 48th, his mid danger SV% was 50th, his high danger SV% was 34th and his Goals saved above average was 51st. All of those are decidedly bad, but the fact that his best stat was high danger SV% paints the picture that these bad numbers weren't caused by being hung out to dry. Hutton's PK numbers were great in the same system and his lower expected SV% suggests that the PK was actual better at limiting quality chances in front of Allen than it was Hutton. The eye test told me that Allen wasn't good on the PK as well.

I'm pretty quick to defend goalies when I think they are being unfairly blamed, but I'm the first to acknowledge that Allen was by far the biggest issue with our PK last year.

With that said, PK stats for goalies are by far the most volatile year to year stats you can find, so my bold prediction is that Allen will be middle of the pack on the PK next year.

 

[stl76]

I put that ranking squarely on Allen. He was arguably the worst NHL goalie on the PK last season in almost every measurable stat.

52 goalies played 100+ minutes shorthanded last year. Allen was 46th in overall save percentage. the difference between his expected save percentage and his actual save percentage was 47th, his low danger SV% was 48th, his mid danger SV% was 50th, his high danger SV% was 34th and his Goals saved above average was 51st. All of those are decidedly bad, but the fact that his best stat was high danger SV% paints the picture that these bad numbers weren't caused by being hung out to dry. Hutton's PK numbers were great in the same system and his lower expected SV% suggests that the PK was actual better at limiting quality chances in front of Allen than it was Hutton. The eye test told me that Allen wasn't good on the PK as well.

I'm pretty quick to defend goalies when I think they are being unfairly blamed, but I'm the first to acknowledge that Allen was by far the biggest issue with our PK last year.

With that said, PK stats for goalies are by far the most volatile year to year stats you can find, so my bold prediction is that Allen will be middle of the pack on the PK next year.

Yikes...those are some pretty damning stats.

My bold prediction: Allen finally unlocks his long awaited potential after seeing a sports psychologist this summer, and finishes top 10 in Vezina voting. Also, Allen and Johnson combine to win the Jennings.

 

[stlbluz]

Maroon & ROR have career years.

Had to get that in before the puck drops tonight.

 

[ezcreepin]

I put that ranking squarely on Allen. He was arguably the worst NHL goalie on the PK last season in almost every measurable stat.

52 goalies played 100+ minutes shorthanded last year. Allen was 46th in overall save percentage. the difference between his expected save percentage and his actual save percentage was 47th, his low danger SV% was 48th, his mid danger SV% was 50th, his high danger SV% was 34th and his Goals saved above average was 51st. All of those are decidedly bad, but the fact that his best stat was high danger SV% paints the picture that these bad numbers weren't caused by being hung out to dry. Hutton's PK numbers were great in the same system and his lower expected SV% suggests that the PK was actual better at limiting quality chances in front of Allen than it was Hutton. The eye test told me that Allen wasn't good on the PK as well.

I'm pretty quick to defend goalies when I think they are being unfairly blamed, but I'm the first to acknowledge that Allen was by far the biggest issue with our PK last year.

With that said, PK stats for goalies are by far the most volatile year to year stats you can find, so my bold prediction is that Allen will be middle of the pack on the PK next year.

Holy good god almighty that is baaAAaaAAaaAAAddddduhh. Wow I didnt know Allen was THAT bad on pk.

 

[ezcreepin]

Predictions
1) Thomas is sent back to OHL but Kyrou makes the team on Schwartz and Schenn's line
2) Dunn gets sent down for conditioning stint because he's making glaring mistakes
3) Allen is the best goalie in the central
4) 5 blues players hit 70 points
5) Parayko scores 15 goals
6) Kyrou wins the Calder

I can't think of anything else but these are my bold-azz predictions. Do I believe any of them? Did I sell my soul to make these happen? Who knows

 

[PiggySmalls]

• By mid-season, Thomas and Tarasenko shows excellent chemistry.
• ROR moves to line with Schwartz and Schenn, Schenn moves over to RW.
• Fabbri and Maroon alternates 1LW spot depending on opposing matchups.
• Kyrou gets called up for injury and his defensive deficencies become glaring.
• Fabbri/Maroon-Bozak-Steen give the Blues 3 solid scoring lines.
• Allen struggles mid-season but not as bad as previous seasons.
• Blues finish 3rd in division right on Nashville's heels.
• PP is better but still sucks.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Steen spends some time on the 4th line this year.
Allen is a top 10 goalie over the season.
The Blues PP is top 10, but the PK is terrible.
Yeo gets nominated for the Jack Adams award.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

1. The PP is better [because realistically it can't be worse], the PK is average to below average. Goal scoring still edges up over last year, but doesn't get to what people expect with this roster. ROR puts up the usual 28-36-64 and wins 60% of faceoffs, and some ask why he doesn't do more. Thomas and Kyrou have solid rookie seasons, but don't live up to overhyped expectations. One of Perron, Bozak, or Maroon utterly shits the bed. [And, on the books for another 2-3 seasons.]

2. One of Pietrangelo or Parayko go down with an injury for part of the season. [At least 25 games.] Bouwmeester looks every bit like a 35-year old defenseman with a bad hip, Dunn has a sophomore slump. Schmaltz underwhelms yet again. There is no trade to bolster the defense corps.

3. Allen is slightly better, even more so considering #2. And, he doesn't have a January swoon. [He just has vague inconsistency across the season, enough to cause concern but not enough to cause outright panic again.] Johnson isn't Hutton by any stretch, but he's also not Jim Hrivnak. It's all enough to keep Husso in the minors the whole season.

4. Yeo is fired by February 15 with the team languishing around 10th in the Western Conference, a half dozen points out of a playoff spot.

5. No major deadline deals, as DA proclaims he's happy with the makeup of the team and thinks the change at HC will be enough to get the Blues into the playoffs and more. [And, because he manages to organize the roster through injuries such that there's still little to no cap space.] If there's a deal, it's something relatively pointless like "a 6th for Derek MacKenzie" or "Tyler Wotherspoon for Reece Scarlett."

6. The Blues win their final 2 games at home, but still end up with about 96 points and get eliminated from the playoffs. [San Antonio also misses the playoffs, but they fall out as guys are brought up trying to bail the Blues out of missing.]

7. Armstrong gets the full support of ownership.

8. The Blues pick goes to Buffalo [which I don't think has any conditions attached], and ends up being a top-3 pick.

 

[BuLLeT1291]

1. The PP is better [because realistically it can't be worse], the PK is average to below average. Goal scoring still edges up over last year, but doesn't get to what people expect with this roster. ROR puts up the usual 28-36-64 and wins 60% of faceoffs, and some ask why he doesn't do more. Thomas and Kyrou have solid rookie seasons, but don't live up to overhyped expectations. One of Perron, Bozak, or Maroon utterly ****s the bed. [And, on the books for another 2-3 seasons.]

2. One of Pietrangelo or Parayko go down with an injury for part of the season. [At least 25 games.] Bouwmeester looks every bit like a 35-year old defenseman with a bad hip, Dunn has a sophomore slump. Schmaltz underwhelms yet again. There is no trade to bolster the defense corps.

3. Allen is slightly better, even more so considering #2. And, he doesn't have a January swoon. [He just has vague inconsistency across the season, enough to cause concern but not enough to cause outright panic again.] Johnson isn't Hutton by any stretch, but he's also not Jim Hrivnak. It's all enough to keep Husso in the minors the whole season.

4. Yeo is fired by February 15 with the team languishing around 10th in the Western Conference, a half dozen points out of a playoff spot.

5. No major deadline deals, as DA proclaims he's happy with the makeup of the team and thinks the change at HC will be enough to get the Blues into the playoffs and more. [And, because he manages to organize the roster through injuries such that there's still little to no cap space.] If there's a deal, it's something relatively pointless like "a 6th for Derek MacKenzie" or "Tyler Wotherspoon for Reece Scarlett."

6. The Blues win their final 2 games at home, but still end up with about 96 points and get eliminated from the playoffs. [San Antonio also misses the playoffs, but they fall out as guys are brought up trying to bail the Blues out of missing.]

7. Armstrong gets the full support of ownership.

8. The Blues pick goes to Buffalo [which I don't think has any conditions attached], and ends up being a top-3 pick.

What in the world is wrong with you!

 

[Brockon]

1. The PP is better [because realistically it can't be worse], the PK is average to below average. Goal scoring still edges up over last year, but doesn't get to what people expect with this roster. ROR puts up the usual 28-36-64 and wins 60% of faceoffs, and some ask why he doesn't do more. Thomas and Kyrou have solid rookie seasons, but don't live up to overhyped expectations. One of Perron, Bozak, or Maroon utterly ****s the bed. [And, on the books for another 2-3 seasons.]

2. One of Pietrangelo or Parayko go down with an injury for part of the season. [At least 25 games.] Bouwmeester looks every bit like a 35-year old defenseman with a bad hip, Dunn has a sophomore slump. Schmaltz underwhelms yet again. There is no trade to bolster the defense corps.

3. Allen is slightly better, even more so considering #2. And, he doesn't have a January swoon. [He just has vague inconsistency across the season, enough to cause concern but not enough to cause outright panic again.] Johnson isn't Hutton by any stretch, but he's also not Jim Hrivnak. It's all enough to keep Husso in the minors the whole season.

4. Yeo is fired by February 15 with the team languishing around 10th in the Western Conference, a half dozen points out of a playoff spot.

5. No major deadline deals, as DA proclaims he's happy with the makeup of the team and thinks the change at HC will be enough to get the Blues into the playoffs and more. [And, because he manages to organize the roster through injuries such that there's still little to no cap space.] If there's a deal, it's something relatively pointless like "a 6th for Derek MacKenzie" or "Tyler Wotherspoon for Reece Scarlett."

6. The Blues win their final 2 games at home, but still end up with about 96 points and get eliminated from the playoffs. [San Antonio also misses the playoffs, but they fall out as guys are brought up trying to bail the Blues out of missing.]

7. Armstrong gets the full support of ownership.

8. The Blues pick goes to Buffalo [which I don't think has any conditions attached], and ends up being a top-3 pick.

#8 is wrong as per cap friendly.

STL 2019 1st to Buffalo, conditional to it not being top 10. If top ten, an unconditional 2020 is owed to Buffalo should the Blues choose to keep their 2019 1st.

 

[kimzey59]

ROR fails to hit 60 points.
Vladdy still nets 45.
Patrick Maroon is voted the team MVP.

 

[Mike Liut]

ROR - 80 pts
Tarasenko - 50 goals
Blues will be hoisting the cup

 

[MissouriMook]

After tonight’s game, it might not be so bold but I will throw this out there - Kyrou makes the final cut and Thomas doesn’t.

Kyrou has played two games where he was dangerous almost every time he stepped on the ice. Thomas has done a few nice things but doesn’t look ready to me. Not sure if that is injury related, nerves or lack of confidence, or if he’s just not physically ready for the NHL. I’m sure he’ll get 2 or 3 more games, so maybe he changes that impression.

 

[BlueDream]

After tonight’s game, it might not be so bold but I will throw this out there - Kyrou makes the final cut and Thomas doesn’t.

Kyrou has played two games where he was dangerous almost every time he stepped on the ice. Thomas has done a few nice things but doesn’t look ready to me. Not sure if that is injury related, nerves or lack of confidence, or if he’s just not physically ready for the NHL. I’m sure he’ll get 2 or 3 more games, so maybe he changes that impression.

It's an interesting situation. I do think we need to play him 1 game centering say, Schwartz and Perron or something like that, and see how he looks.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

It's an interesting situation. I do think we need to play him 1 game centering say, Schwartz and Perron or something like that, and see how he looks.

While I’d like to see him with the top 6 guys, we should see how he looks with Fabbri/Blais first, as that could end up being our 4th line.

 

[HighNote]

Thomas has played with Sanford, Jaskin, and Barbashev. Those three combine for 93 points in the NHL. Meanwhile, Kyrou and Blais have played with Bozak, Maroon, Steen, Schenn, and O'Reilly. Thomas is only 19 years old and has not played an NHL game.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

I’d be pretty surprised if Thomas didn’t get at least 9 games if nothing else than for the experience. He’s gonna make the team.

 

[ScratchCatFever]

Jordan Binnington is recalled from San Antonio on December 8th and makes his first career start on January 7th in Philadelphia, posting a 3-0 shutout. He then proceeds to go 14-2-1 with four more shutouts in between helping the Blues salvage what was once a lost season and becomes a spokesperson for The Cheshire Inn.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

Alright my crazy wild, out of left field prediction:


Jordan Binnington plays over 25 games and emerges as the teams #1 goalie going into the playoffs.

 

[Brian39]

Nashville and Winnipeg are playing each other in round 1.

We just went 12-1-1 through our hardest month of the season. Those 12 wins include 3 against Nashville, 1 against the league's best team and 7 wins were against teams currently in a playoff spot. 2 more wins came against teams who are 1 point out and would be in a playoff spot had they beaten us.

No doubt in my mind we are making up 5 points on the Preds since we have 3 games in hand. Simmonds was arguably the worst player on the ice last night. Other than parking in front of the net on the PP, he looked completely useless out there. Granlund is an upgrade, but last night's game cemented my opinion that Simmonds is a downgrade from Hartman.

Winnipeg is more of an uphill climb since we are 4 points back with the same number of games played, but this is the bold predictions thread. To quote our rookie goalie, "Do I look nervous?"

 

[brokeu91]

Alright my crazy wild, out of left field prediction:


Jordan Binnington plays over 25 games and emerges as the teams #1 goalie going into the playoffs.

Yeah, I'm going to need those Powerball numbers this week

 

[HighNote]

Tarasenko sets a new career high in goals.

Dunn hits at least 35 points.

Parayko scores at least 15 goals.

The Blues have a top 5 powerplay at the end of the year.

Well, I was dead wrong on the Tarasenko and powerplay predictions. I did not expect Tarasenko to be that bad to start the year. The Dunn and Parayko predictions are still possible. Dunn needs 10 points in 19 games, which isn't impossible. And Parayko needs 5 goals in 19, also possible. The powerplay being meh definitely hurt my other 3 predictions.