MacKinnon's Next Contract

[cgf]

Mackinnon right now doesn't even deserve $6 million. You gotta pay based on past performance, combined with age (and thus likelihood of decline or growth). Mackinnon is young and talented, so he obviously has growth potential, but the more important factor is the points he has put up and so far it's far from $8 million worthy.

I like where the Mack scenario is, though. Either he gets paid soon and we get a dicsount on what will likely be the prime years of a monstrous career, or he plays another season and does really well and gets what he deserves. Combine with with a belief of mine that he's not seeking to gouge the Avs, and we have a good situation.

And come next summer MacK could easily be worth 8+, so I'd rather pay him more than he deserves if we can lock him up now than to wait until paying him what he deserves blows up "the structure".

 

[ArWKo]

I'm just hoping that being around guys like Dutchy, EJ, and Landy - who I think all took just a little bit of a discount - will make Barrie and MacK a little more apt to take deals that are fair, but leave the Avs with room to keep making the team better.

 

[cgf]

I'm just hoping that being around guys like Dutchy, EJ, and Landy - who I think all took just a little bit of a discount - will make Barrie and MacK a little more apt to take deals that are fair, but leave the Avs with room to keep making the team better.

EJ's the only one who took a real discount, and a fair deal for MacK could easily mean 7.5-8M+ a year.

 

[Nzap]

And come next summer MacK could easily be worth 8+, so I'd rather pay him more than he deserves if we can lock him up now than to wait until paying him what he deserves blows up "the structure".

Then again what if MacK has another sub-par season?
I don't mind at all signing him after this season.
Even if it means paying him 500k-1mil more.
Cause if he still has the same flaws as last season I'd not rather pay more than 6mil for him.

I can't see how MacKinnon is even close to 8mil market value.
Not right now even close.

 

[Iceberg]

And come next summer MacK could easily be worth 8+, so I'd rather pay him more than he deserves if we can lock him up now than to wait until paying him what he deserves blows up "the structure".

Define easily. What kid of a season are you expecting MacKinnon to have that would make him worth more than 8M?

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

EJ's the only one who took a real discount, and a fair deal for MacK could easily mean 7.5-8M+ a year.

Yep. And even EJ got what he wanted (term). He wasn't going to take a discount for shorter years. The whole "we will give you term for less cap" doesn't really work on young players. A max deal doesn't include any regression years due to age.

Then again what if MacK has another sub-par season?
I don't mind at all signing him after this season.
Even if it means paying him 500k-1mil more.
Cause if he still has the same flaws as last season I'd not rather pay more than 6mil for him.

I can't see how MacKinnon is even close to 8mil market value.
Not right now even close.

That's the risk you got to take with young kids. It boils down to wether or not you think they will turn into the player you think they can or not. This is how you get kids to buy into the structure. You take a chance on them. You shown them that you trust what they will become. If we take the whole "you have to prove it first" method then these kids don't feel like they owe us anything. Some, like I assume RoR was, will feel slighted and unappreciated.

MacK is a guy we should take the risk on. If he lives up to his hype, well, great. We got a great player for years on a decent deal. If it doesn't work out, well, we are screwed anyways. We are not winning much of anything without MacK playing close to his potential.

 

[cgf]

Then again what if MacK has another sub-par season?
I don't mind at all signing him after this season.
Even if it means paying him 500k-1mil more.
Cause if he still has the same flaws as last season I'd not rather pay more than 6mil for him.

I can't see how MacKinnon is even close to 8mil market value.
Not right now even close.

To me it boils down to this; if MacK is never worth 7.5+ then this rebuild will have failed and Roykic will be fired. So if he fails then we have to start from scratch, at which point MacK's contract doesn't matter; whereas if he doesn't fail, he'll be getting Getz-Perry money very soon. So since it doesn't matter if things go wrong, would you rather wait and give a successful MacK one of the Getz-Perry contracts or would you rather be proactive and get him closer to Seguin-Benn? He's the franchise, so why be cheap with him? What's the upside? That we get a slightly better package for him if we have to blow everything up and start the rebuild from scratch?

 

[tigervixxxen]

For me it's not about POTENTIAL it's about CERTAINTY. Does any one person have any one reason why you do not want MacKinnon on this team for the next 8 years?

 

[Iceberg]

For me it's not about POTENTIAL it's about CERTAINTY. Does any one person have any one reason why you do not want MacKinnon on this team for the next 8 years?

I believe everybody wants MacKinnon here for the next 8 years. The question is how much should he make on his next contract.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Right, and if you are sure about the guy you pay to keep him here. I'm not one of those people who is sure he's going to be a 80-90 point guy but he's somene I want on this roster a long time. If he's over paid by a million or so is not important, keeping him here is.

 

[Nzap]

For me it's not about POTENTIAL it's about CERTAINTY. Does any one person have any one reason why you do not want MacKinnon on this team for the next 8 years?

Money is the only reason I can find.

 

[Iceberg]

Right, and if you are sure about the guy you pay to keep him here. I'm not one of those people who is sure he's going to be a 80-90 point guy but he's somene I want on this roster a long time. If he's over paid by a million or so is not important, keeping him here is.

I really hope and believe Sakic doesn't think that way.

In a capped league "a million or so" is important, IMO, even when you talk about a player like MacKinnon, especially when he is a RFA.

 

[tigervixxxen]

You could guess wrong and have it go the other way where you are paying him several million more by waiting. It's about the value of locking him up long term and having the certainty that he will be a franchise player for a long time. It's much more abstract than paying for points and potential points. It's paying for worth to a franchise. Very few players get this but he's one of them.

 

[henchman21]

Money is the only reason I can find.

And he simply won't be any cheaper than right now.

It very likely wouldn't take $8m to sign MacK right now... but the Avs should be willing to go there is that is what it takes to lock him up for 8 years. I'm not saying that is his market value right now, but if you force MacK into a bridge (IMO the only way to get him under $6m at all) the Avs are looking at much more than $8m in the future. What Stamkos and even RyJo are going to do to the market is going to be insane.

Whatever it reasonably takes to get MacK signed for 8 years is what should be done.

 

[Iceberg]

You could guess wrong and have it go the other way where you are paying him several million more by waiting. It's about the value of locking him up long term and having the certainty that he will be a franchise player for a long time. It's much more abstract than paying for points and potential points. It's paying for worth to a franchise. Very few players get this but he's one of them.

I just don't see the downside of waiting one year, if he is not willing to take a long term deal at around 6.5M - 7M now.

I would take my chances that he doesn't get 90 points this season.

In this league teams and players use other contracts as comparables all the time, and right now there's not one example that would justify giving him an 8x8 deal now.

Now, all it takes is one GM to drive salaries up, and i just hope it's not Sakic.

 

[Nzap]

And he simply won't be any cheaper than right now.

It very likely wouldn't take $8m to sign MacK right now... but the Avs should be willing to go there is that is what it takes to lock him up for 8 years. I'm not saying that is his market value right now, but if you force MacK into a bridge (IMO the only way to get him under $6m at all) the Avs are looking at much more than $8m in the future. What Stamkos and even RyJo are going to do to the market is going to be insane.

Whatever it reasonably takes to get MacK signed for 8 years is what should be done.

If the Avs are willing to take the risk, I'd gladly sign him for 6+ years for 6-6.5mil right now.
Just not sure if that's enough to entice MacK's camp and I'd be very wary of going to higher figures in the AAV.

 

[cgf]

I just don't see the downside of waiting one year, if he is not willing to take a long term deal at around 6.5M - 7M now.

I would take my chances that he doesn't get 90 points this season.

In this league teams and players use other contracts as comparables all the time, and right now there's not one example that would justify giving him an 8x8 deal now.

Now, all it takes is one GM to drive salaries up, and i just hope it's not Sakic.

This thinking would make more sense if ROR, RyJo and Stamkos didn't exist. Players like MacK are going to start getting scary money, and I hope we don't wait until after the market has changed. Cause if we do wait it'll be just like missing out on those cap-manipulative retirement contracts.

 

[Bubba Thudd]

For me it's not about POTENTIAL it's about CERTAINTY. Does any one person have any one reason why you do not want MacKinnon on this team for the next 8 years?

That new hairdo.

 

[Iceberg]

This thinking would make more if ROR, RyJo and Stamkos didn't exist. Players like MacK are going to start getting scary money, and I hope we don't wait until after the market has changed.

ROR would have been a UFA at the end of his current deal.

Stamkos will also be an UFA and he is on a whole different level.

RyJo's contract will expire one year later than MacKinnon's, and unless he signs an extension before MacKinnon (not likely), it shouldn't have an effect on negotiations with MacK.

McDavid's next contract won't be signed before MacKinnon's either. So i like the odds of us signing MacKinnon to a long term deal below or at the 8M mark, NEXT offseason.

No need to offer him that kind of a contract THIS year.

 

[PAZ]

Honestly if we offer Mack a 1 yr bridge that's not a lowball offer and he takes the next step, I still don't see us having an issue of resigning him for ~6mil/7 yr term.

 

[finnbalor*]

All those guys, that are making 8M or more got those contracts AFTER they proved themselves.

Giving MacKinnon that kind of a deal (8x8) right now would be terrible business by Sakic.

Give me ONE example of a guy that signed an extension, one year before his ELC expired, that is making more than 6M per year... just ONE example, please. I can't remember one but i'm sure there might be at least one.

I can understand the agent of the player using that "Oh, but i believe he'll score 90 points in the NHL one day" argument to get a deal done, but it's not reason enough for a GM to give that kind of a contract at this point.

I don't believe a deal will get done this year, because i think MacKinnon will try to enhance his value, same for Barrie.

Isn't that the exact logic that burnt the Habs when they played hard ball to force Subban to sign a bridge, after he sat out. Montreal got hammered on Subban's next deal when they could have locked him up long term at 6 million per. Going under 8 for Nate puts the Avs at risk for an offer sheet.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Isn't that the exact logic that burnt the Habs when they played hard ball to force Subban to sign a bridge, after he sat out. Montreal got hammered on Subban's next deal when they could have locked him up long term at 6 million per. Going under 8 for Nate puts the Avs at risk for an offer sheet.

in that case, i think the contract would've been around 5.5 mil for 5 years. so they'd have him for that cap hit this season and the next one. and then pay him possibly 10+ mil (depending on how much the cap goes up). so it might work out better for the habs this way.

 

[Metallo]

Can we extend him now or do we have to wait until Jan 1st?

 

[InjuredChoker]

Can we extend him now or do we have to wait until Jan 1st?

we can and could have extended him from july 1st, 3 months ago. jan 1st extension rule applies only to players on 1yr contracts. so guy like skille can't be extended until jan 1st if avs think he's worthy of an extension.

 

[Metallo]

Ok tanks.

I think we should take the 1st half of the season to evaluate him and start working early 2016 on a long term extension.