MacKinnon's Next Contract

[expatriatedtexan]

Ok....In EJ's thread, I've seen a lot of talk about how some believe Nate is going to automagically be the highest paid player on the team with his next contract...Where is this coming from? Dude's got enormous talent and potential and will be paid accordingly but it won't come until he shows what kind of player he's going to be long-term.

This might sound harsh but as of right now, he's not really done anything that screams 6M. He's played two seasons and really wasn't that great last year. Ian ****ing Laperriere had a more (in the case of assists equally) productive season in goals/assists/points/PIMs/GWG in 05/06. Can we put the breaks on Nathan's salary until he shows where he's going to even out at? I'm sure he's going to get paid and might very well be the new ceiling...but shouldn't we at least wait until he plays some games this season before bestowing a 7M+ by 8yr contract on him?

Didn't want to clutter up EJ's thread with this and expect to hear nothing but boo-birds in response but at least it's a discussion.

Guess I'd like folks to give two sets of numbers as part of their responses....These are pertaining to a contract he'd sign today...

1. A bridge deal that leaves him as RFA for one year.
2. A deal that buys at least one UFA year.

For me:

1. 4.25/year
2. 5/year add .5 or possibly move to 6 if he gives two UFA years.

Those numbers will surely change based on how this year goes...but I'm not ready to hand him the keys to the car today. Honestly, I don't think it would be wise to really negotiate with him until mid-season.

[edit...yes I know Lappy played 82 games that season and MacKinnon only played 64...but one could read that as Lappy has also proven himself to be more durable with such a small sample size for Nate. ]

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[AvsRobin]

He'll score 70+ points this season and get a long term contract at at least 6M. If he takes 6M it likely will be a 5 year deal. Cap hit higher if we go 7-8 years.

 

[RockLobster]

I think they should go the Landeskog route, and build the "bridge deal" into the contract (if MacK's people go for it). Will obviously result in a higher payout, but it gets more years.

 

[tigervixxxen]

A 20 year old first overall pick that the org has absolutely no reason to not want around for the next 15+ years has to be handled with a little foresight. And he's not just some iffy prospect, he has accomplished 63 point season, a Calder and is (knock on wood) going to go over 200 NHL games played this season. There's a premium on potential and teams are going to have to pay for it. Sure we don't know if he's going to be 60 70 80 whatever point career player but the risk is waiting to find out it's even on the higher and paying for it. The bottom line is that if he's already been determined to be a franchise player then there's no need to screw around and inch forward, you do that with guys you are unsure of.

 

[Iceberg]

If i'm Sakic i would try to get MacKinnon to sign the same contract EJ just signed, and if he is willing, i sign him today.

If MacKinnon wants more, i wait until he shows more. No need to rush and sign him to a long term 7M contract right now.

 

[henchman21]

If you can get MacK to sign a deal at $8m or under for 8 years (I think he would sign for less than that)... you sign him to that deal immediately. MacK is the type of player you bet the farm on and he will reward you long term. If you force him into a bridge for a couple seasons, you'll be looking at $9-10+m per to retain him long term after that.

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

Well, if EJ's tweet was any indication, his contract is likely the next one done.

I remember after Duchene signed his extension, Landeskog thanked him and Duchene tweeted back at him that you're next. That turned out to be true.

I would absolutely go long term on this one. I think he's a great bet to be a star.

 

[The Shermanator]

6M. No reason to be higher.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

8 year 7 million and i'd be thrilled. Anything less is just amazing. Anything over will still be pretty good.

 

[Iceberg]

If you can get MacK to sign a deal at $8m or under for 8 years (I think he would sign for less than that)... you sign him to that deal immediately. MacK is the type of player you bet the farm on and he will reward you long term. If you force him into a bridge for a couple seasons, you'll be looking at $9-10+m per to retain him long term after that.

There is no point in offering him 8 for 8 right now, maybe next year, but not now.

 

[InjuredChoker]

If you can get MacK to sign a deal at $8m or under for 8 years (I think he would sign for less than that)... you sign him to that deal immediately. MacK is the type of player you bet the farm on and he will reward you long term. If you force him into a bridge for a couple seasons, you'll be looking at $9-10+m per to retain him long term after that.

this, and have felt like it for about a year now.

 

[Avsboy]

Mackinnon like EJ does not seem like a money guy. Also, Avs showed considerable faith in him with the #1 pick. Like EJ with the trade. So I expect a very reasonable deal.

With Barrie it will be more complicated.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Mackinnon is going to ba huge endorsement guy for the next 10 years which will help ease his side of the negotations as well.

 

[landy92mack29]

Crosby signed for 8.7 because he wears 87 so Mack will sign for 2.9 because he wears 29. It's so obvious

 

[Tweaky]

Bridge deal, 3y x $4.5M (followed by a 7y x $9.5M)

Long term, 8y x $7M ... so (4y x $5M) + (4y x $9M) = $56M

I could see some leeway on either, in that the bridge could be for just 2 years or a bit more money, or that the long term deal is a year or two shorter and/or up to $1M more AAV. A 6y x $8M contract might be a bit rich though...Figure $24M for the 4 remaining RFA years, then another $24M for 2 UFA years? Too much. But I think he will be reasonable.

Long term scenario followed by a 5y x $12M because of how much the cap goes up by then. Same with the other, only 3y x $12M, bringing the totals for both to 13 years and $116M.

I like numbers...maybe too much

 

[The Kingslayer]

Crosby signed for 8.7 because he wears 87 so Mack will sign for 2.9 because he wears 29. It's so obvious

9.6 Millie after Rants is done his ELC.

 

[landy92mack29]

9.6 Millie after Rants is done his ELC.

It's only a Cole Harbour thing

 

[henchman21]

There is no point in offering him 8 for 8 right now, maybe next year, but not now.

The point is locking him up before it starts pushing 9-10m per... MacK will be a 85-90 point player through his prime. Those players are going to get paid in the 9-10m range real soon (some are already over it). I don't think it would take $8m per to get an 8 year deal, but if it did, I wouldn't hesitate a single bit.

 

[Iceberg]

The point is locking him up before it starts pushing 9-10m per... MacK will be a 85-90 point player through his prime. Those players are going to get paid in the 9-10m range real soon (some are already over it). I don't think it would take $8m per to get an 8 year deal, but if it did, I wouldn't hesitate a single bit.

You don't think an 8X8 offer would get a deal done today?? I think you are wrong, i think he would sign it pretty fast.

I would probably be ok with that offer a year from now, but not today.

 

[Alex Jones]

There is no point in offering him 8 for 8 right now, maybe next year, but not now.

8x8 is perfect. Gives the avs a reasonable number for a top tier player, leaves Mackinnnon with enough years left to cash one massive contract before hes done.

 

[Iceberg]

8x8 is perfect. Gives the avs a reasonable number for a top tier player, leaves Mackinnnon with enough years left to cash one massive contract before hes done.

It's not perfect after just 2 years of work, especially coming of a not so great season.

I think there is enough comparables around the league to look for a deal between 6-7M per year.

 

[trip trancid]

You don't think an 8X8 offer would get a deal done today?? I think you are wrong, i think he would sign it pretty fast.

I would probably be ok with that offer a year from now, but not today.

Why are you ignoring his first sentence about locking him in before he becomes a 9-10 player? You're trying to have it both ways. Sorry but there's risk either way. If you wait for that monster year, 8 million might not be enough. Conversely, there's a risk he scuffles along and never has that huge season if you pay him 8 now.

Another thing, in both his years, he was productive when playing on a good line. Once he was put on a line with Landeskog and Stastny, his productivity took off. Last year, he started producing more when he was on a line with Landeskog and OReilly. Also, that line he was on in the Wild series was super productive and he was the biggest catalyst. That line was the major reason for those 3 wins.

 

[21]

Interesting situation because it feels a little bit like we are waiting for Duchene, MacKinnon and Landeskog to really breakout. We want true stars like we had during the golden era? ;-)

One thing is for sure, they have to start delivering if this is going to be a happy season for the Avalanche.

Of course the production of MacKinnon this season will have a big impact on his contract. MacKinnon can't live on his reputation and talent forever, I really want him to deliver this season.

 

[Iceberg]

Why are you ignoring his first sentence about locking him in before he becomes a 9-10 player? You're trying to have it both ways. Sorry but there's risk either way. If you wait for that monster year, 8 million might not be enough. Conversely, there's a risk he scuffles along and never has that huge season if you pay him 8 now.

Another thing, in both his years, he was productive when playing on a good line. Once he was put on a line with Landeskog and Stastny, his productivity took off. Last year, he started producing more when he was on a line with Landeskog and OReilly. Also, that line he was on in the Wild series was super productive and he was the biggest catalyst. That line was the major reason for those 3 wins.

I'm not ignoring it.

Tarasenko just signed an 8 x 7.5M contract, and i don't think there is any reason to give MacKinnon more than that.

 

[trip trancid]

I'm not ignoring it.

Tarasenko just signed an 8 x 7.5M contract, and i don't think there is any reason to give MacKinnon more than that.

So, MacKinnons potential ceiling is 8 and nothing more? Otherwise, you are ignoring it.