I offer you a counter argument: How many times since the lockout has a player gone from a 50-60 point pace over multiple seasons to a 100 point pace?
I’d be willing to bet the percentage of that happening is smaller than the percentage of your example.
Which pretty much shows that trying to generalize things like you’re doing is a very poor argument. Yes, statistically, based on how they started their careers, Matthews should end up better. Up until the point where MacKinnon had a 97 point season in 74 games, and followed it up with a 99 point season in 82.
Your parameters are oddly specific. Mine allow for all players to be compared.
Your numbers also leave out the that almost no one was a 90 pt scorer for years.
How bout Kessel. He went from a 60 pt player to a plus PPG player......
He didn’t end up better player than all the ones who were considered drastically better in the first 200 games.
Mackinnons best pace was 42 goals and 107
Pts.
Matthews was 45 goals 88 pts.
Matthews has always and more than likely will always be the better goal scorer. The only question will assists.
Maybe if one didn’t play on a team with the most PP and one with one of the least the points would be closer