MacKinnon and Rantanen or Matthews and Marner?

Which duo?


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    534

34

Registered User
Mar 26, 2010
21,639
9,515
The Rantanen-Marner gap is getting big. Last year I would not have dared said Matthews is as good as Nate but here we are.

I can see why people would look to playoff stats in the past, it does however ignore one pair is getting better and the other is static. This implies past playoff samples may not be a reliable indicator.

Not worth arguing about. I'd like to see them in the final so we can hash this out properly.
Who do you believe is better? Rantanen or Marner?
 
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BlueBaron

Registered User
May 29, 2006
15,674
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Sarnia, On
Who do you believeis better? Rantanen or Marner?
Until this season I probably would have said Rantanen. Production wise not a lot separates them now. I could not find any indication Rantanen kills penalties so coupling that with the fact Marner makes others better my first instinct is slight edge Marner.

I qualify that by saying I'm not sure how much Rantanen impacts his linemates where as I see it every game with Marner. It's close regardless.
 

Mac Attack

Beefy Legs
Aug 15, 2018
1,188
734
Like the Avs duo
Rantanen 52pts in 43 games
MacKinnon 69 pts in 50 games

Marner 25 pts in 32 games
Matthews 24 pts in 32 games.

These are not at all similar but maybe you can find some special angle to come at this from. Sure you can say the Av's as a team are not a playoff success story but these two guys have performed.
 

RapidKnight

Registered User
Dec 29, 2021
994
563
Rantanen 52pts in 43 games
MacKinnon 69 pts in 50 games

Marner 25 pts in 32 games
Matthews 24 pts in 32 games.

These are not at all similar but maybe you can find some special angle to come at this from. Sure you can say the Av's as a team are not a playoff success story but these two guys have performed.
They’ve produced more in the playoffs no doubt. Don’t blame the team though, their production in crucial games 6 and 7 is less than stellar. In their most recent series they did a pretty good job of disappearing.
They’ve had 1 successful series the last 20 months. A lot can change in 20 months.
I avoid playoff production because the recent sample size is too small to carry any significance and confounding variables like shooting percentage might give a false representation of their future impact.
 

Mac Attack

Beefy Legs
Aug 15, 2018
1,188
734
They’ve produced more in the playoffs no doubt. Don’t blame the team though, their production in crucial games 6 and 7 is less than stellar. In their most recent series they did a pretty good job of disappearing.
They’ve had 1 successful series the last 20 months. A lot can change in 20 months.
I avoid playoff production because the recent sample size is too small to carry any significance and confounding variables like shooting percentage might give a false representation of their future impact.
I enjoy how you don't like to use playoff production because it's a small sample size, then cited specifically only games 6 and 7 only to make the Av's players look worse.
 

RapidKnight

Registered User
Dec 29, 2021
994
563
I enjoy how you don't like to use playoff production because it's a small sample size, then cited specifically only games 6 and 7 only to make the Av's players look worse.
No I mentioned games 6 and 7 first. Then I explained I usually disregard playoffs including that. They are not exempt from blame in the playoffs if you choose value those samples.
 

Mac Attack

Beefy Legs
Aug 15, 2018
1,188
734
No I mentioned games 6 and 7 first. Then I explained I usually disregard playoffs including that. They are not exempt from blame in the playoffs if you choose value those samples.
MacKinnon had 2 pts and Rantanen had 1 in game 6 of their last series so I'm not sure how that equals disappearing. And it's not like the Av's have been a total playoff failure. They have been in two playoffs where they were not the 8th seeded team. One they lost in the second round with a third string goalie. And the second they lost to a team that tied them in points in the standings. I did expect more from the team as a whole against Vegas, but it wasn't some crazy surprise. The team absolutely does need to perform this year though.
 

Drew Warproof

Registered User
Jul 5, 2016
40
38
Avalanche duo. All four players are just awesome but MacKinnon and Rantanen has been really good when the real games start. Leafs duo can prove me wrong next playoffs.
 

Mestaruus

Registered User
Apr 11, 2011
4,867
1,757
Mackinnon > Matthews > Marner > Rantanen

based off this year alone Matthews/Marner have been better but overall Mackinnon is the best player here.

2020-21:

Mackinnon/Rantanen: 54 GP, 26 G, 40 A, 66 P (1.22 PPG)

Matthews/Marner 59 GP, 33G, 43A, 76 P (1.28 PPG)

so i think its fair to say Matthews and Marner are the better duo, at least this year. But Mack is the best player here.

Marner isn't better than Rantanen in my opinion, but they aren't far apart.
 

Mestaruus

Registered User
Apr 11, 2011
4,867
1,757
Until this season I probably would have said Rantanen. Production wise not a lot separates them now. I could not find any indication Rantanen kills penalties so coupling that with the fact Marner makes others better my first instinct is slight edge Marner.

I qualify that by saying I'm not sure how much Rantanen impacts his linemates where as I see it every game with Marner. It's close regardless.

Rantanen impacts his line mates all right. He surely makes them better. Rantanen is insane passer in my opinion along with the size, skill and goal scoring ability. As we saw, he can play center position as well. Makes him a full package. I think that he could kill penalties but coach Bednar prefers to save him for offense.

Rantanen is +14 and +17 ahead of Kadri and MacKinnon in +/-. It tells something about his impact on the defense as well.

Kadri +18
MacKinnon +15
Rantanen +32

Kadri+MacKinnon combined 18+15 = 33
Rantanen solo = 32

Marner is at +18, but not really comparable as he's in another team.
 
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Eltuna

Registered User
Nov 12, 2017
2,338
2,051
No I mentioned games 6 and 7 first. Then I explained I usually disregard playoffs including that. They are not exempt from blame in the playoffs if you choose value those samples.
I think it’s fair to disregard small sample sizes but 50 games is a pretty significant sample in the playoffs. Especially when Mackinnon has been so otherworldly in them.

He currently sits at 4th all time in playoff ppg. If ppg is not your thing and you would rather focus on the first 50 games of a players career to level the playing field on those who have played in games past their prime, Mackinnon is still ahead of pretty much all comparables. Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, Jagr, Kane, Kucherov, Stamkos, Thornton, Zetterberg, Datsyuk etc. I couldn’t find a modern day comparable with a better start through 50 games. It’s not even like he started playing in the playoffs during his prime, he started as an 18 year old and was the best player in the entire first round of all teams that year.

Something that significant can’t be ignored, especially when a guy like Matthews has struggled the way he has to date.

This along with Mackinnons memorial cup (best in modern history) and his play at the World Cup on the “young guns” team (arguably the best player on the team) and he’s building quite the playoff resume. Still missing the big one obviously in a cup, but he has a Conn Smythe written all over him like few ever have.
 

RapidKnight

Registered User
Dec 29, 2021
994
563
I think it’s fair to disregard small sample sizes but 50 games is a pretty significant sample in the playoffs. Especially when Mackinnon has been so otherworldly in them.

He currently sits at 4th all time in playoff ppg. If ppg is not your thing and you would rather focus on the first 50 games of a players career to level the playing field on those who have played in games past their prime, Mackinnon is still ahead of pretty much all comparables. Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, Jagr, Kane, Kucherov, Stamkos, Thornton, Zetterberg, Datsyuk etc. I couldn’t find a modern day comparable with a better start through 50 games. It’s not even like he started playing in the playoffs during his prime, he started as an 18 year old and was the best player in the entire first round of all teams that year.

Something that significant can’t be ignored, especially when a guy like Matthews has struggled the way he has to date.

This along with Mackinnons memorial cup (best in modern history) and his play at the World Cup on the “young guns” team (arguably the best player on the team) and he’s building quite the playoff resume. Still missing the big one obviously in a cup, but he has a Conn Smythe written all over him like few ever have.
I don’t disagree at all. I just think it’s overvalued.
1. I think most would agree to not go back further than 2 or 3 years in the regular season so why do it for the playoffs?
2. Scoring in the first round is higher then the semis and finals, to a lesser extent the second round. It’s not completely fair to compare MacKinnon’s overall production to players who have played more games in deeper rounds which are lower scoring.
3. MacKinnon’s playoff SH% is 4% higher than the regular season so it seems a bit unsustainable.
 

BlueMed

Registered User
Jul 18, 2019
2,804
3,328
Matthews and Marner need to make a splash in the playoffs. Contracts aside, it's the Colorado duo until the Toronto boys show up.
 
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Puckstuff

Registered User
May 12, 2010
11,143
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Milton
Matthews, 54 goals, 92 points in 64 games with elite defence. Thats a 118 point pace over 82.
Marner, 29 goals, 84 points in 60 games, playing P.K. That's a 115 point pace over 82.
 

KaosKommando

Ask me if I give a shit.
Mar 22, 2022
274
80
Lonelywood
Can't vote yet, but someone said that Rantanen played center this year while Mac was out. And he did good? That would be a big game changer between Marner and him.
 

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