Prospect Info: MacKenzie Blackwood -G- (42nd Overall 2015)

[Call Me Al]

oh it’s nothing in particular just that the show is a guilty pleasure of mine for watching complete trainwrecks (that don’t involve this hockey team)

guy in that gif sold his car and belongings and gave $40,000 to his gf in ecuador that she spent on opening a bar in only her name, and cheated him on him with her ex and everyone in the town knew about it and called him “el cuchado” behind his back but when he confronted her about it she made him sleep on a hammock. classic sh*t

 

[NjDevsRR]

The fact that Scott Wedgewood was still looked at as having any kind of potential at the time Blackwood was drafted is the funniest part about looking back on this.

Wedgewood hasn’t even had a good pro season by the time we drafted Blackwood. He was awful.

He has since put together a couple of good AHL seasons since, but his only extended NHL run was horrible.

There is a simple reason for this. There was a contingent of Devils fans who despised Cory, even when he was putting up elite numbers. They hated seeing him outplay Marty which eventually forced Marty out. This loud contingent then pumped up both Kinkaid and Wedge (even Applebee) because they just didn’t like Cory for the reasons listed before. Sad but true. I had many encounters at games with these folks.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I didn't understand taking a goalie that high when we had prime Schneider

glad to be wrong...although I would imagine that none of us knew Cory would decline that rapidly

 

[Nico Hischier]

oh it’s nothing in particular just that the show is a guilty pleasure of mine for watching complete trainwrecks (that don’t involve this hockey team)

guy in that gif sold his car and belongings and gave $40,000 to his gf in ecuador that she spent on opening a bar in only her name, and cheated him on him with her ex and everyone in the town knew about it and called him “el cuchado” behind his back but when he confronted her about it she made him sleep on a hammock. classic sh*t

Classic educational programming on The Learning Channel

 

[Emperoreddy]

It should be noted that using 42nd overall in a goalie and using a top 5 pick on one is two entirely different situations.

 

[britdevil]

Yikes there are some AWFUL takes early on. I made it to page 5 before I had to stop and post this.

Always fun watching know-it-alls get pwnt.

HUR DUR BAD PICK

 

[britdevil]

By the time Blackwood will be hitting the NHL, it'll be like 2019 and Schneider will be 33 or 34 years old. Schneider may not be hitting a decline at that point, but we can't assume that he won't be.

f***, can I have this weeks lotto numbers my dude?

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

I want to make clear that this is not a "know it all" post where I am claiming I knew that Schneider would decline like he has and I was fine bringing him back this year due to not wanting to have to buy him out and have his cap hit for 5 years after this one. The timing of drafting his replacement was spot on looking at the numbers. Also note that an organization that has been very successful (Washington) used a 1st round pick on a goalie that same year and they had an excellent goalie that is a couple of years younger than Cory.

I have mentioned before that in the last 5 years only 5 goalies 23 and under have appeared in 40 games or more. Blackwood and Hart will make it 7 in 6 years barring a significant injury. Point being that you should expect a roughly 4-5 year window before having a goalie play significant time in the NHL.

According to this study 3o is when you could expect a drop-off in goalie play.
1. Goalies don’t improve as they get older
2. By age 30, goalie decline starts to get REALLY noticable
3. By mid-30s, even with the aging line, goalies rapidly start to fall apart.

How well do goalies age? A look at a goalie aging curve.

I believe Cory was 28 when Blackwood was drafted. If Cory was in a slow decline like Holtby is (looking at save %) the Devils would have been bringing Blackwood along the way Washington is with Samsonov.

 

[glenwo2]

@Classic Devil is Nostradamus with that prediction (see britdevil's post above).

He even got the year (2019) right!

 

[Better Call Sal]

It's fitting we have another MB goaltender that we're watching develop before our very eyes.

 

[Blackjack]

It's fitting we have another MB goaltender that we're watching develop before our very eyes.

If we get another one he'll have to wear #28.

 

[Bleedred]

I want to make clear that this is not a "know it all" post where I am claiming I knew that Schneider would decline like he has and I was fine bringing him back this year due to not wanting to have to buy him out and have his cap hit for 5 years after this one. The timing of drafting his replacement was spot on looking at the numbers. Also note that an organization that has been very successful (Washington) used a 1st round pick on a goalie that same year and they had an excellent goalie that is a couple of years younger than Cory.

I have mentioned before that in the last 5 years only 5 goalies 23 and under have appeared in 40 games or more. Blackwood and Hart will make it 7 in 6 years barring a significant injury. Point being that you should expect a roughly 4-5 year window before having a goalie play significant time in the NHL.

According to this study 3o is when you could expect a drop-off in goalie play.
1. Goalies don’t improve as they get older
2. By age 30, goalie decline starts to get REALLY noticable
3. By mid-30s, even with the aging line, goalies rapidly start to fall apart.

How well do goalies age? A look at a goalie aging curve.

I believe Cory was 28 when Blackwood was drafted. If Cory was in a slow decline like Holtby is (looking at save %) the Devils would have been bringing Blackwood along the way Washington is with Samsonov.

The interesting thing is that Schneider himself seemed to start the recent trend of elite goalies who started to decline at or around 30 or just eventually went kerplunk altogether like he did.

Jimmy Howard may have really been the first though, having his first decline season in 13-14 at age 29 and only having one good season since then, which was almost a career low in games played season for him, before reverting back. I don't really wanna count Cam Ward, as he started off his career with about 3 mediocre to crap seasons (not including the playoff run in 2005) before 3 or 4 solid to really good seasons, which then turned to nothing but bad seasons from age 29 through the rest of his career.

Pekka Rinne also had a 3 season in 4 years stretch where he looked to definitely be declining starting at age 30, but then resurrected his career to have 3 straight really good seasons, before looking like he might now be out of gas at age 37.

But just a few years ago (as of 2016), some of the best goalies in the league were Schneider, Price, Holtby, Quick. All 3 of those guys since turning 30 have been average at best to just straight up bad since that time. Quick's last 2 years have been horrendous and he looks shot. Holtby has been average at best for the last 3 years and he only just turned 30 this past September. This is only his first season in his 30's.

Rask went down a bit in his late 20's, but has still managed to at least be above league average (though no longer amazing) since then.

Lundqvist at least didn't have his first meh season until he was 34 or so. Luongo held up remarkably well in performance until he was 39, though he also struggled to stay on the ice for health reasons for much of the last 4 or 5 years of his career.

As bad as Marty looked at the end of his career, he didn't really have a decline season until he was 38 years old. Guys like Roy, Hasek and even Belfour and maybe even Curtis Joseph to a smaller extent, all seemed to hold up well through their late 30's and even until 40 for Belfour and about 42 for Hasek. Belfour had that one terrible season at the end in Dallas where he looked cooked, then had back to back Vezina candidate seasons at 37-38 years old in Toronto. Curtis Joseph managed to play at least solid until he was 39 years old.

 

[Nubmer6]

The interesting thing is that Schneider himself seemed to start the recent trend of elite goalies who started to decline at or around 30 or just eventually went kerplunk altogether like he did.

Jimmy Howard may have really been the first though, having his first decline season in 13-14 at age 29 and only having one good season since then, which was almost a career low in games played season for him, before reverting back. I don't really wanna count Cam Ward, as he started off his career with about 3 mediocre to crap seasons (not including the playoff run in 2005) before 3 or 4 solid to really good seasons, which then turned to nothing but bad seasons from age 29 through the rest of his career.

Pekka Rinne also had a 3 season in 4 years stretch where he looked to definitely be declining starting at age 30, but then resurrected his career to have 3 straight really good seasons, before looking like he might now be out of gas at age 37.

But just a few years ago (as of 2016), some of the best goalies in the league were Schneider, Price, Holtby, Quick. All 3 of those guys since turning 30 have been average at best to just straight up bad since that time. Quick's last 2 years have been horrendous and he looks shot. Holtby has been average at best for the last 3 years and he only just turned 30 this past September. This is only his first season in his 30's.

Rask went down a bit in his late 20's, but has still managed to at least be above league average (though no longer amazing) since then.

Lundqvist at least didn't have his first meh season until he was 34 or so. Luongo held up remarkably well in performance until he was 39, though he also struggled to stay on the ice for health reasons for much of the last 4 or 5 years of his career.

As bad as Marty looked at the end of his career, he didn't really have a decline season until he was 38 years old. Guys like Roy, Hasek and even Belfour and maybe even Curtis Joseph to a smaller extent, all seemed to hold up well through their late 30's and even until 40 for Belfour and about 42 for Hasek. Belfour had that one terrible season at the end in Dallas where he looked cooked, then had back to back Vezina candidate seasons at 37-38 years old in Toronto. Curtis Joseph managed to play at least solid until he was 39 years old.

This makes me appreciate Marty all the more.

Also, it's amazing Lundqvist managed to hold off his decline for so long considering he plays so deep in net and relies more on his reaction speed than positioning/cutting down angles. Same with Hasek.

 

[glenwo2]

This makes me appreciate Marty all the more.

Also, it's amazing Lundqvist managed to hold off his decline for so long considering he plays so deep in net and relies more on his reaction speed than positioning/cutting down angles. Same with Hasek.

This makes Marty an absolute Legend for being able to last as long as he did and be effective and as long as he was.

You're right on Lundpads, too.

Hopefully we have a goaltender who can last even remotely as long as those two.