LW/RW Kirill Kaprizov (2015, 135th, MIN) - Part II

[Caser]

Goal, assist and a nice move from today's game:

 

[monsieurthibz]

Would it be fair to expect the kind of season Nikita Gusev is having for Kaprizov’s first year in the NHL ? If not, how so ?

 

[OKR]

Would it be fair to expect the kind of season Nikita Gusev is having for Kaprizov’s first year in the NHL ? If not, how so ?

It’s not impossible obviously but Gusev was older and bit more proven when he came over, and also higher caliber of a prospect than Kaprizov.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

It’s not impossible obviously but Gusev was older and bit more proven when he came over, and also higher caliber of a prospect than Kaprizov.

this ain’t it. Kaprizov won the scoring title in the KHL as a 21yo. This year he might win MVP as a 22yo. Gusev had 14 points in his 22yo season. Kaprizov’s ceiling is a few tiers higher than Gusev’s. Expecting similar production next year is probably fair, although predicting how KHL production will translate is tricky business. Kaprizov’s production this year is very reminiscent of Panarin’s numbers in his last year playing in the KHL. I doubt he comes over and is a point per game player, but 50-70 point range seems about right. But again, KHL numbers are tough to translate. Gusev had Radulov type numbers @ 26, but it hasn’t translated to being a 1st liner in the NHL, Shipachyov had Panarin-esque numbers, but he bounced out of the league immediately. The 50-70 point range is a safe bet, but again Kaprizov >>> Gusev in terms of level of prospect.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Would it be fair to expect the kind of season Nikita Gusev is having for Kaprizov’s first year in the NHL ? If not, how so ?

See my previous post. I think 50-70 point range is where he falls. He’ll be given all the opportunities in MN, so that should help.

 

[thrillhous]

It’s not impossible obviously but Gusev was older and bit more proven when he came over, and also higher caliber of a prospect than Kaprizov.

Gusev was absolutely not a higher caliber prospect. Gusev was 23 before he put up a season comparable to what Kaprizov did at age 19. And Kaprizov at ages 20-22 has continued to put up big numbers since. Yes Gusev at age 27 was more experienced but Kaprizov coming in at age 23 is a better prospect than Gusev was at age 27 IMO.

 

[OKR]

this ain’t it. Kaprizov won the scoring title in the KHL as a 21yo. This year he might win MVP as a 22yo. Gusev had 14 points in his 22yo season. Kaprizov’s ceiling is a few tiers higher than Gusev’s. Expecting similar production next year is probably fair, although predicting how KHL production will translate is tricky business. Kaprizov’s production this year is very reminiscent of Panarin’s numbers in his last year playing in the KHL. I doubt he comes over and is a point per game player, but 50-70 point range seems about right. But again, KHL numbers are tough to translate. Gusev had Radulov type numbers @ 26, but it hasn’t translated to being a 1st liner in the NHL, Shipachyov had Panarin-esque numbers, but he bounced out of the league immediately. The 50-70 point range is a safe bet, but again Kaprizov >>> Gusev in terms of level of prospect.

I

this ain’t it. Kaprizov won the scoring title in the KHL as a 21yo. This year he might win MVP as a 22yo. Gusev had 14 points in his 22yo season. Kaprizov’s ceiling is a few tiers higher than Gusev’s. Expecting similar production next year is probably fair, although predicting how KHL production will translate is tricky business. Kaprizov’s production this year is very reminiscent of Panarin’s numbers in his last year playing in the KHL. I doubt he comes over and is a point per game player, but 50-70 point range seems about right. But again, KHL numbers are tough to translate. Gusev had Radulov type numbers @ 26, but it hasn’t translated to being a 1st liner in the NHL, Shipachyov had Panarin-esque numbers, but he bounced out of the league immediately. The 50-70 point range is a safe bet, but again Kaprizov >>> Gusev in terms of level of prospect.

Well yeah true about the prospect part, i somehow remembered Gusev being higher pick than he was, but i’d still say it’s highly unlikely that Kaprizov as a 22yo has the same amount of scoring as 27yo Gusev who has outscored Kaprizov in every level.

 

[thrillhous]

I

Well yeah true about the prospect part, i somehow remembered Gusev being higher pick than he was, but i’d still say it’s highly unlikely that Kaprizov as a 22yo has the same amount of scoring as 27yo Gusev who has outscored Kaprizov in every level.

But he hasn’t outscored KK at every level. That’s just not true.

 

[OKR]

But he hasn’t outscored KK at every level. That’s just not true.

Kaprizov vs Gusev in leagues/tournaments they’ve both played in, so how has he not outscored him?

EHT: 0,7ppg vs. 0,83ppg
WJC U20: 1,07ppg vs 1.29ppg
MHL: 0,78ppg vs 1,60ppg
KHL: 0,77ppg vs 0,85ppg
OG: 1,50ppg vs 2.0ppg
WC: 0,59ppg vs 1.42ppg

 

[SoundAndFury]

and also higher caliber of a prospect than Kaprizov.

What? How?

Kaprizov vs Gusev in leagues/tournaments they’ve both played in, so how has he not outscored him?

EHT: 0,7ppg vs. 0,83ppg
WJC U20: 1,07ppg vs 1.29ppg
MHL: 0,78ppg vs 1,60ppg
KHL: 0,77ppg vs 0,85ppg
OG: 1,50ppg vs 2.0ppg
WC: 0,59ppg vs 1.42ppg

Pretty much absolutely whole of this charade can be explained by their age gap and completely different development paths. It's pretty laughable to post this, honestly, as anyone with at least a bit of knowledge can see through this "data". The MHL comparison, where Kaprizov played 1 season at the age of 17 vs. Gusev's 3 seasons between 17 and 19 is my absolute favorite.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Would it be fair to expect the kind of season Nikita Gusev is having for Kaprizov’s first year in the NHL ? If not, how so ?

I think, Kaprizov will have a bettter rookie season, than Gusev. He'll play top6 position and not his off-side, as Gusev, and Minnesota is going to be a more giftted offensive team, than Devils.

 

[thrillhous]

Kaprizov vs Gusev in leagues/tournaments they’ve both played in, so how has he not outscored him?

EHT: 0,7ppg vs. 0,83ppg
WJC U20: 1,07ppg vs 1.29ppg
MHL: 0,78ppg vs 1,60ppg
KHL: 0,77ppg vs 0,85ppg
OG: 1,50ppg vs 2.0ppg
WC: 0,59ppg vs 1.42ppg

You aren’t factoring for age here at all, so this really doesn’t mean much at all. Let’s see the comparison by season at the same age.

I mean of course Gusev had better stats in the MHL because he was there at ages 17-19 whereas KK was essentially done with the MHL already after his age 16 season.

 

[OKR]

You aren’t factoring for age here at all, so this really doesn’t mean much at all. Let’s see the comparison by season at the same age.

I mean of course Gusev had better stats in the MHL because he was there at ages 17-19 whereas KK was essentially done with the MHL already after his age 16 season.

It’s harder to keep up Ppg in more games tho, Also what makes you think Kaprizov will score at same ppg rate or higher in his first season in NHL than he has done in any other season in any league?

 

[OKR]

What? How?



Pretty much absolutely whole of this charade can be explained by their age gap and completely different development paths. It's pretty laughable to post this, honestly, as anyone with at least a bit of knowledge can see through this "data". The MHL comparison, where Kaprizov played 1 season at the age of 17 vs. Gusev's 3 seasons between 17 and 19 is my absolute favorite.

I thinks it’s way more laughable to act like it’s 100% certain 23 year old Kaprizov yet to break 60 points in KHL is bound to have a a rookie season better than Gusev who was considered unanimous best player outside of NHL, was 27yo coming of a 82 point season...

 

[SoundAndFury]

It’s harder to keep up Ppg in more games tho, Also what makes you think Kaprizov will score at same ppg rate or higher in his first season in NHL than he has done in any other season in any league?

Yes, it's easier to score in the MHL at the age of 17 than it is at 18 or 19 because you play less games. Very smart.

Kaprizov, at the age 19, was 2nd in scoring on one of the better teams in the KHL, 0.86 PPG. Gusev, at the very same age 19, played primarily in the MHL and scored over 2 PPG. Tell me now, which one is better? Maybe Gusev's 3 points in 16 games he has actually played in the KHL that year will give it away.

Gusev was 22 when he actually started scoring in the KHL in a meaningful way. Kaprizov was the leading scorer of a championship team at 21. Case closed.

I thinks it’s way more laughable to act like it’s 100% certain 23 year old Kaprizov yet to break 60 points in KHL is bound to have a a rookie season better than Gusev who was considered unanimous best player outside of NHL, was 27yo coming of a 82 point season...

Wow, so now all a sudden you too understand the age matters? Amazing.

I don't think anybody here was acting like it's 100% certain. But sure there is a high possibility of it due to the factors people did mention. All you do is post some ridiculous "scoring comparison" while also claiming Gusev was somehow a higher profile prospect.

 

[QJL]

There is absolutely no question Kaprizov has had a more impressive career than Gusev had up until 23. None at all. To debate that is craziness. Gusev was a late bloomer. Kaprizov has paced better and projects better.

 

[Caser]

I think, Kaprizov will have a bettter rookie season, than Gusev. He'll play top6 position and not his off-side, as Gusev, and Minnesota is going to be a more giftted offensive team, than Devils.

Not to mention that one of Kaprizov's strengths is that he doesn't really has an off-side, has been pretty comfortable at both wings during his career.

With that being said, I'd still consider 0.5 ppg a good result for his rookie season, as he will need some time to adapt.

 

[MuckOG]

Kaprizov vs Gusev in leagues/tournaments they’ve both played in, so how has he not outscored him?

EHT: 0,7ppg vs. 0,83ppg
WJC U20: 1,07ppg vs 1.29ppg
MHL: 0,78ppg vs 1,60ppg
KHL: 0,77ppg vs 0,85ppg
OG: 1,50ppg vs 2.0ppg
WC: 0,59ppg vs 1.42ppg

Here's a better comparison of how each produced in the KHL at the same age. As you can see, Kaprizov's numbers are much better than Gusev's at every year.

Gusev
19 yo: .433 ppg
20 yo: .318 ppg
21 yo: .672 ppg
22 yo: .875 ppg

Kaprizov
19 yo: .857 ppg
20 yo: .869 ppg
21 yo: .894 ppg
22 yo: 1.04 ppg

 

[OKR]

Yes, it's easier to score in the MHL at the age of 17 than it is at 18 or 19 because you play less games. Very smart.

Kaprizov, at the age 19, was 2nd in scoring on one of the better teams in the KHL, 0.86 PPG. Gusev, at the very same age 19, played primarily in the MHL and scored over 2 PPG. Tell me now, which one is better? Maybe Gusev's 3 points in 16 games he has actually played in the KHL that year will give it away.

Gusev was 22 when he actually started scoring in the KHL in a meaningful way. Kaprizov was the leading scorer of a championship team at 21. Case closed.



Wow, so now all a sudden you too understand the age matters? Amazing.

I don't think anybody here was acting like it's 100% certain. But sure there is a high possibility of it due to the factors people did mention. All you do is post some ridiculous "scoring comparison" while also claiming Gusev was somehow a higher profile prospect.

I’ve never said age doesn’t matter or that Kaprizov is the worst one, thats all on you, i said on my first post thay’s it’s unlikely he will produce at better pace in the NHL than Gusev on his first season partly due to his age, so i clearly have realized that age matter...like give me one reason why do you think he will get that much better in spawn of a season that he will start outprodicing Gusev in much harder league when he is yet to even do so in KHL? It’s pretty obvious Gusev was the better player when coming over, cause he was older and more proven, if asked can Kaprizov produce like Gusev at some point in the NHL i would say yes, but it’s pretty laughable to expect him to be better in NHL as 23year old than best player out of NHL did as 27yo...

 

[MuckOG]

It’s pretty obvious Gusev was the better player when coming over, cause he was older and more proven, if asked can Kaprizov produce like Gusev at some point in the NHL i would say yes, but it’s pretty laughable to expect him to be better in NHL as 23year old than best player out of NHL did as 27yo...

Why is it laughable? Didn't Panarin come over and dominate right away as a 23 yo?

I'm expecting a 50-60 point rookie season for Kaprizov....but I wouldn't be shocked if he exceeded that.

 

[SoundAndFury]

I’ve never said age doesn’t matter or that Kaprizov is the worst one, thats all on you, i said on my first post thay’s it’s unlikely he will produce at better pace in the NHL than Gusev on his first season partly due to his age, so i clearly have realized that age matter...like give me one reason why do you think he will get that much better in spawn of a season that he will start outprodicing Gusev in much harder league when he is yet to even do so in KHL? It’s pretty obvious Gusev was the better player when coming over, cause he was older and more proven, if asked can Kaprizov produce like Gusev at some point in the NHL i would say yes, but it’s pretty laughable to expect him to be better in NHL as 23year old than best player out of NHL did as 27yo...

I think this all have been mentioned before:

1) Kaprizov plays much more NA-like game. Less pretty plays, smaller spaces, etc.
2) Kaprizov is built like an actual hockey player while Gusev is pretty much a poster boy for a soft skilled Euro dangler.
3) Kaprizov is going to the team which is likely a better fit.

You have said Gusev was "higher caliber prospect" which implies he is worse, doesn't it? You also realized that age matters yet didn't factor age in any of your "comparisons". Also, you should separate the difference between the better player and better point producer. Your stat-watching skils are nice and all but Gusev was really good at producing points in a league very different to the NHL. Other parts of his game... well you got to see those for yourself after he arrived to NA.

 

[OKR]

Why is it laughable? Didn't Panarin come over and dominate right away as a 23 yo?

I'm expecting a 50-60 point rookie season for Kaprizov....but I wouldn't be shocked if he exceeded that.

It’s actually not, but it’s certainly more laughable than expecting same from Gusev who was at the time when he came over the better player than Kaprizov is ATM, why on earth a player who scores at 0,77ppg rate on KHL would outproduce a player who scored at over ppg in that same league last year?

Gusev is currently scoring at 0,63ppg in the NHL, Kaprizov is scoring 0,77ppg in KHL, why on earth would Kaprizov’s ppg rate not go down in the NHL at all but Gusev’s did?

What has he done to be expect him to be a better a NHL player in his first season as a ~23 yo, compared to more proven 27yo coming over?

 

[OKR]

Age matters in scoring in KHL but apparently not in the NHL

 

[MuckOG]

It’s actually not, but it’s certainly more laughable than expecting same from Gusev who was at the time when he came over the better player than Kaprizov is ATM, why on earth a player who scores at 0,77ppg rate on KHL would outproduce a player who scored at over ppg in that same league last year?

Gusev is currently scoring at 0,63ppg in the NHL, Kaprizov is scoring 0,77ppg in KHL, why on earth would Kaprizov’s ppg rate not go down in the NHL at all but Gusev’s did?

What has he done to be expect him to be a better a NHL player in his first season as a ~23 yo, compared to more proven 27yo coming over?

Where are you getting your stats from? Kaprizov is currently producing 1.04 ppg in the KHL.

What has he done to be expect him to be a better a NHL player in his first season as a ~23 yo, compared to more proven 27yo coming over?

Again....look at Panarin. He's the better comparable to Kaprizov than Gusev is. Gusev is the classic late bloomer. Both Panarin and Kaprizov were more productive at a younger age than Gusev was.

 

[OKR]

Where are you getting your stats from? Kaprizov is currently producing 1.04 ppg in the KHL.

It’s his career average in KHL, just like i used Gusev’s career average too.

But riddle me this, if Kaprizov hasn’t scored as much in the KHL as Gusev did, apparently all cause of age or whatever, then why would he do so in NHL even tho he doesn’t macigally age few years by coming over? How is he so much better than Gusev that he will play more NHL like hockey, and score more in the NHL? What actually has he done compared to Gusev other than born later?