LW Nils Höglander - Rögle, SHL (2019, 40th, VAN)

[CherryToke]

Zuccarello at his age was torching leagues in comparison.

I agree with the Hoglander production concerns but Zuccarello didnt play in a comparable league until he was 21...

 

[Lonny Bohonos]

I agree with the Hoglander production concerns but Zuccarello didnt play in a comparable league until he was 21...

Which is a huge point.

 

[Disappointed EP40]

I like the way he plays, but where’s the scoring for an average sized player; let alone an undersized one?

Look at his scoring history, not just his SHL season

Don't move the goalposts. He posted his scoring comparables for his most recent play in the most relevant league.

That's fine if you don't see him as a potential scoring, but don't ignore a list that clearly has him among some decent scorers.

 

[Disappointed EP40]

Hes 18 now.

Im not an expert by any means so correct me if I am wrong but looking back to 2013-14 when he was 13- 14 years old he was playing u18. It seems to me much of his career has been playing with older peers and when playjng at his "own" level hes been closer to a point-ish per game type of player.

Are there many other non-allstar players that have continuously played this much in higher leagues? (I have no idea)

 

[TheWhiskeyThief]

Don't move the goalposts. He posted his scoring comparables for his most recent play in the most relevant league.

That's fine if you don't see him as a potential scoring, but don't ignore a list that clearly has him among some decent scorers.

You look at the history because the hit rate of that one U19 season has wide variance of hit and miss.

Yes, he’s played up a lot, but never stood out at any point going, never tore it up against his own cohort.

If your best argument was that a dwarf did 2nd tier production in his cohort where others who have size are now doing well, are missing the point that dwarves have to light it up against their early cohorts.

 

[Disappointed EP40]

You look at the history because the hit rate of that one U19 season has wide variance of hit and miss.

Yes, he’s played up a lot, but never stood out at any point going, never tore it up against his own cohort.

If your best argument was that a dwarf did 2nd tier production in his cohort where others who have size are now doing well, are missing the point that dwarves have to light it up against their early cohorts.

That's the point though -- it's not 2nd tier production when you are playing above your age group. He's not playing against his own cohorts.

If you're referring to his international play. It's ridiculously hard to gauge players on those tournaments, (Pettersson's is/was all over for example) but even if you do, did he not most recently put up 4 goals and 3 assists in 8 games?

When Viktor Arvidsson was 19, he played for Skellefteå AIK and put up :

Gm G A Pts Pm

49

7

5

12

12

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

16th on his team

Here's Höglander at 18 :

50

7

7

14

22

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

9th on his team

It took until Arvidsson was 20 to put up decent numbers.

I dunno. I guess I need to see more of what becomes of players who've always played up in higher leagues, but not even sure where I could find that.

 

[Lonny Bohonos]

It also says a lot about his game if a small dude has always played above his age group

 

[Curved Space]

Hoglander is short. As a 188 pound 18 year old, he isn't small. He weighs more than Pettersson.

 

[canuckinfuts]

Stop calling this guy a dwarf. He's an absolute unit.

 

[Hansen]

The only thing about Hoglander that concerns me is actually how physically developed he is. He seems to be totally developed, he is incredible shape. It makes me wonder how much more speed or strength he can add beyond where he is.

This would be much more of a concern if he were playing against undeveloped boys though which would demean some of his production, he’s playing against men as an 18 year old which is pretty incredible. The more footage I see of him the better he looks, he could be a very nice piece for the team going forward

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I think there’s a misconception about Hoglander.

He’s getting stereotyped as some huge offense guy because he’s a small forward.

He has excellent puck skills, good skating and is a buzzsaw style of player, but where is the high end playmaking or goal scoring? He hasn’t shown much of that. There are also hockey IQ questions there.

Will he score enough points to be a top six forward?

 

[Star Ocean]

I think there’s a misconception about Hoglander.

He’s getting stereotyped as some huge offense guy because he’s a small forward.

He has excellent puck skills, good skating and is a buzzsaw style of player, but where is the high end playmaking or goal scoring? He hasn’t shown much of that. There are also hockey IQ questions there.

Will he score enough points to be a top six forward?

Viktor Arvidsson put up 7 points when he was 19. Höglander put up 14 when he was 18.

There is potential here.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Viktor Arvidsson put up 7 points when he was 19. Höglander put up 14 when he was 18.

There is potential here.

I'm sure there are players who you could compare their stats to Gretzky. What's your point?

Hoglander's point potential is questionable, and thats due to his skill-set, not a low number of points being better than the low number of points from a good NHL player at a similar age.

 

[Star Ocean]

I'm sure there are players who you could compare their stats to Gretzky. What's your point?

Hoglander's point potential is questionable, and thats due to his skill-set, not a low number of points being better than the low number of points from a good NHL player at a similar age.

He a 2nd rounder. Seems about right to me.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

He a 2nd rounder. Seems about right to me.

I agree, but if you look at all these comments above, a lot are saying he was a steal. He wasn't.

 

[Star Ocean]

I agree, but if you look at all these comments above, a lot are saying he was a steal. He wasn't.

?

We dont know that yet.

 

[John Johnson]

I agree, but if you look at all these comments above, a lot are saying he was a steal. He wasn't.

He was a consensus first round pick by many people, so by getting him at 40 was considered a steal. The same way people considered Cole Caufield a steal at 15. Truth is none of us know who the real steals of the draft are yet because none of them have played a single NHL game. As far as his offence goes theres room to improve sure, but his production is pretty good for an 18 year old in the SHL, I can't see him not improving upon that.

 

[Fuimus]

You look at the history because the hit rate of that one U19 season has wide variance of hit and miss.

Yes, he’s played up a lot, but never stood out at any point going, never tore it up against his own cohort.

If your best argument was that a dwarf did 2nd tier production in his cohort where others who have size are now doing well, are missing the point that dwarves have to light it up against their early cohorts.

2018-19			GP	G	A	P
	Sweden U20 (all)	International-Jr	8	4	3	7

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I consider lighting it up as nearly ppg against slightly older competition. I will concede that it is a small sample size but it is the only one we have from last year against players close to Nils own age.

 

[Bankerguy]

45 point middle 6 3W / 2W type player who can PK and provide energy to the team while chipping in enough offensively to be considered a top6 wing on a non-stacked team

probably will be one of those good "utility" type players good teams always seem to have on a sweet contract

 

[docbenton]

He does have electric skill and I'd bank on that any day. He only played around 14 min, not a ton of PP time. I expect he'll produce next year with more confidence and opportunity.

A more one-dimensional skill guy like Dominik Bokk was taken in the last 1st with 2 points in 15 SHL games, this year he was 0.5 PPG. Interestingly they might be on the same team next year.

 

[VictorLustig]

Höglander is a 1st rounder if you ignore his flaws. His hands and feet are top end and he competes hard. Size won't be an issue I think. The problem I see is his lack of finishing ability, both in terms of scoring himself but also making that final pass to set up goals. He also doesn't use his teammates very well and is not someone you would use on the PP. I see him as a future bottom six player who can chip in with high end plays but I doubt he'll ever become a consistent scorer at the NHL level. People compare him to Arvidsson but to me he's a Mattias Tedenby with more bite.

 

[ProspectsFanatic]

I don't write notes on each player, but sometimes I like to have notes on the players I ranked highly (19) to justify their rankings, here the notes I made on him coming into the draft:

Was given little ice time each year vs men, he produced well per minute of play (8 min Allsvenskan, 12:30 SHL), given more ice time he would have scored higher, on top of the fact that it was already impressive in itself to make those men teams at such a young age, he has proven to be able to produce at J20 with a poor team. Is also a few days off the cut off for tournament age eligibility which seems to severely limit what he could have done internationally, instead of being the best of the younger group, he is like the worst of the older group when he played U18/U17 (just good enough to make the team, limited ice time again), that wasn't favorable for his stock.

So by the looks of it he might be a steal because of those odd unfavorable metrics; unlucky for the age cutoff and barely played in men leagues, but produce well each time vs men, the one time he was in position to produce in regards to league for his age was J20 DY-1, having bad linemates didn't put him in a situation to look good but he still managed to score 14 goals in 22 games (that is extremely good DY-1), he did very well for the chance he was given each time. Was the best player 4-Nation tournament U20 which is often an overlooked tournament which shows he should have made the WJC20 and could have finally done something solid now that his skills is catching on further that age group.

His level of confidence vs high-level competition blows my mind, I never saw this before, usually because you should have low success rate vs tougher competition, you slowly lose confidence in your abilities, but he tries the most insane between the legs of opponents moves and pulls it off vs men in one of the top league in the world, appear very strong mentally to me. Competes hard, can even surprisingly deliver some hard hits at times, what isn't there to like?

 

[lawrence]

I don't write notes on each player, but sometimes I like to have notes on the players I ranked highly (18) to justify their rankings, here the notes I made on him coming into the draft:
Was given little ice time each year vs men, he produced well per minute of play (8 min Allsvenskan, 12:30 SHL), given more ice time he would have scored higher, on top of the fact that it was already impressive in itself to make those men teams at such a young age, he has proven to be able to produce at J20 with a poor team. Is also a few days off the cut off for tournament age eligibility which seems to severely limit what he could have done internationally, instead of being the best of the younger group, he is like the worst of the older group when he played U18/U17 (just good enough to make the team, limited ice time again), that wasn't favorable for his stock. So by the looks of it he might be a steal because of those odd unfavorable metrics; unlucky for the age cutoff and barely played in men leagues, but produce well each time vs men, the one time he was in position to produce in regards to league for his age was J20 DY-1, having bad linemates didn't put him in a situation to look good but he still managed to score 14 goals in 22 games (that is extremely good DY-1), he did very well for the chance he was given each time. Was the best player 4-Nation tournament U20 which is often an overlooked tournament which shows he should have made the WJC20 and could have finally done something solid now that his skills is catching on further that age group. His level of confidence vs high-level competition blows my mind, I never saw this before, usually because you should have low success rate vs tougher competition, you slowly lose confidence in your abilities, but he tries the most insane between the legs of opponents moves and pulls it off vs men in one of the top league in the world, appear very strong mentally to me. Competes hard, can even surprisingly deliver some hard hits, what isn't there to like?

Typed on a smart phone ?

 

[canuckinfuts]

I don't write notes on each player, but sometimes I like to have notes on the players I ranked highly (19) to justify their rankings, here the notes I made on him coming into the draft:

Was given little ice time each year vs men, he produced well per minute of play (8 min Allsvenskan, 12:30 SHL), given more ice time he would have scored higher, on top of the fact that it was already impressive in itself to make those men teams at such a young age, he has proven to be able to produce at J20 with a poor team. Is also a few days off the cut off for tournament age eligibility which seems to severely limit what he could have done internationally, instead of being the best of the younger group, he is like the worst of the older group when he played U18/U17 (just good enough to make the team, limited ice time again), that wasn't favorable for his stock.

So by the looks of it he might be a steal because of those odd unfavorable metrics; unlucky for the age cutoff and barely played in men leagues, but produce well each time vs men, the one time he was in position to produce in regards to league for his age was J20 DY-1, having bad linemates didn't put him in a situation to look good but he still managed to score 14 goals in 22 games (that is extremely good DY-1), he did very well for the chance he was given each time. Was the best player 4-Nation tournament U20 which is often an overlooked tournament which shows he should have made the WJC20 and could have finally done something solid now that his skills is catching on further that age group.

His level of confidence vs high-level competition blows my mind, I never saw this before, usually because you should have low success rate vs tougher competition, you slowly lose confidence in your abilities, but he tries the most insane between the legs of opponents moves and pulls it off vs men in one of the top league in the world, appear very strong mentally to me. Competes hard, can even surprisingly deliver some hard hits, what isn't there to like?

Nice post, thanks for the info

 

[lawrence]

Seriens bästa juniorer

Hoglander ranked 2nd best shl prospect.