Prospect Info: Luke Tuch

[BaseballCoach]

I would be surprised if the habs offer doesn't burn a year. There's little incentive to not give it to him, it's not like he's going to break the bank in two years with his new contract. And he'll still be a RFA (right?)

EDIT: Random thought, but I wonder how much playing in the same division of his brother influences his decision. It's something to not be in the same team, but to play against him multiple times during the season? I wonder how big of an impact it could have.

I don't think it has Tmuch impact. Matthew Tkachuk prioritized Florida even though Brady was already in the Atlantic division

 

[le_sean]

I really fon't see much harm, ESPECIALLY for the low-ceiling picks. They will never break the bank even with RFA coming one year early. DF you think Farrell will get a monster contract after next summer if he is still clearly an AHL player?

It’s the optics. Who is he to demand anything? What veteran that’s been with you all season are you healthy scratching to make room for a grinder? At least all the guys know who Lane is, he was up for a Hobey Baker before and was breaking records. Tuch is just some average NCAA player.

 

[Rapala]

I would be surprised if the habs offer doesn't burn a year. There's little incentive to not give it to him, it's not like he's going to break the bank in two years with his new contract. And he'll still be a RFA (right?)

I'm not a fan of this NCAA loophole to opt out by going back to school for another year and then simply not signing.
The league should then automatically grant another year of rights to the team who drafts such a player.
Agents would then be forced to become more forthcoming. This would give the team more of an opportunity to make an equitable trade.

 

[Wateredgarden]

So the only reason we fear he might not sign with us is because he hasn't done it yet? Or is there info i'm missing?

 

[BaseballCoach]

It’s the optics. Who is he to demand anything?

Ŀike any pending UFA he has a bit of leverage. He's also 22 at the moment. If he signs his ELC, even burning a year, will be 23 at his first RFA contract. That's the same as guys coming from the CHL, and he will have no offer sheet rights like they do.

What veteran that’s been with you all season are you healthy scratching to make room for a grinder?

Who cares for one game. We did it with Farrell for six games and he was clearly not ready.

Who to sit?

Pearson, Pezzetta, Ylonen, and White. None of those four HAVE to play, but we keep playing at least two. Also, maybe there is a vet who is banged up and can use a break.

 

[le_sean]

Ŀike any pending UFA he has a bit of leverage. He's also 22 at the moment. If he signs his ELC, even burning a year, will be 23 at his first RFA contract. That's the same as guys coming from the CHL, and he will have no offer sheet rights like they do.


Who cares for one game. We did it with Farrell for six games and he was clearly not ready.

Who to sit?

Pearson, Pezzetta, Ylonen, and White. none of those four HAVE to play, but we keep playing at least one. Also, maybe there is a vet who is banged up and can use a break.

That’s a fair opinion to have. I’m just saying moving forward, you will have to offer it to every NCAA player you pick from here on out. Farrell was at least a star in the NCAA. He’s turning out to be a dud, but he wasn’t at the time.

 

[jrom]

I would be surprised if the habs offer doesn't burn a year. There's little incentive to not give it to him, it's not like he's going to break the bank in two years with his new contract. And he'll still be a RFA (right?)

EDIT: Random thought, but I wonder how much playing in the same division of his brother influences his decision. It's something to not be in the same team, but to play against him multiple times during the season? I wonder how big of an impact it could have.

BUF fans have been saying he would rejoin his brother when he could

 

[Treb]

 

[McGees]

Just give him the year. Who cares. So he’s 1 year closer to making 1 million instead of 800k

 

[red devil]

 

[BaseballCoach]

That’s fair opinion to have. I’m just saying moving forward, you will have to offer it to every NCAA player you pick from here on out. Farrell was at least a star in the NCAA. He’s turning out to be a dud, but he wasn’t at the time.

No you don't. We didn't with Stapley, and we won't with Biondi. It only applies to 22 year old guys with NHL upside. Big deal, they go RFA at age 23 like anyone from the CHL. And as for "undeservedly" playing one NHL game, it happens to a lot of AHL lifers, and means nothing.

If you think the player has a chance to be a real NHLer, you do it, if not, you don't care.

Just give him the year. Who cares. So he’s 1 year closer to making 1 million instead of 800k

View attachment 851675

Not even. He won't make $1M unless he is an NHL regular 12 months from now. If that happens, you won't regret signing him.

Otherwise, the second contract for AHLers is usually worse than the ELC contract.

 

[le_sean]

No you don't. We didn't with Stapley, and we won't with Biondi. It only applies to 22 year old guys with NHL upside. Big deal, they go RFA at age 23 like anyone from the CHL. And as for "undeservedly" playing one NHL game, it happens to a lot of AHL lifers, and means nothing.

If you think the player has a chance to be a real NHLer, you do it, if not, you don't care.

Of course not with those players, because the precedent wasn’t set. This is what sets the precedent, that’s my point. Now every agent will say “well you did it with Luke Tuch”

 

[HomaridII]

Elliot Friedman says tuch will sign his contract with the Canadiens.

Welcome to the organization. Great depth player, exactly what you need.

 

[The Great Weal]

That’s a fair opinion to have. I’m just saying moving forward, you will have to offer it to every NCAA player you pick from here on out. Farrell was at least a star in the NCAA. He’s turning out to be a dud, but he wasn’t at the time.

Yeah if they play Tuch to burn off a year, I'd say Hughes lost some leverage for future NCAA players.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Of course not with those players, because the precedent wasn’t set. This is what sets the precedent, that’s my point.

It's simply not true. We have not had many 22 year olds in that position. Struble was still 21 at his signing date.

Besides, we're at the point in our rebuild where we can't even sign every prospect due to contract limits and available spots. If Tuch were two inches shorter and we didn't think he was a potential impact bottom sixer, we would not have this decision to make.

 

[le_sean]

It's simply not true. We have not had many 22 year olds in that position. Struble was still 21 at his signing date.

Besides, we're at the point in our rebuild where we can't even sign every prospect due to contract limits and available spots. If Tuch were two inches shorter and we didn't think he was a potential impact bottom sixer, we would not have this decision to make.

Let’s just hope he has an impact in the NHL as a bottom 6 forward. We need it. Because being a 2nd rounder and only getting 0.75 PPG in your 4th NCAA season is just not impressive.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Elliot Friedman says tuch will sign his contract with the Canadiens.

The day after the Dubois trade

By the way, the slight delay may or may not even be about the 1 game/burn. They could be discussing potential ELC performance bonuses, for example.

 

[Ezpz]

Sounds familiar.

Our first pick of 2022 was a bad pick, developed the wrong way, then suddenly he trended up too. No one foresaw it.


I really fon't see much harm, ESPECIALLY for the low-ceiling picks. They will never break the bank even with RFA coming one year early. DF you think Farrell will get a monster contract after next summer if he is still clearly an AHL player?

Trending up in his D+4 playing with the 2024 first overall pick. He's a year younger than Cole who is in his fourth NHL season, third full season. Slaf is also in his D+2 and breaking out in a very big way. Tuch had 10 points in the NCAA at the same age.

If Hutson and Celebrini hadn't chosen BU he probably would have never broke that barrier either. His brother got him invited to team USA at the World Championships where he was pretty much a non-factor. He's also not as big or as fast as his brother, on top of being way less skilled. If Celebrini weren't there this year there's a good chance Tuch only gets an AHL tryout contract. If his brother wasn't in the league I don't think he gets an ELC either, I think it's only us and Buffalo competing for his services and Hughes not wanting to lose assets for free.

I am not sure Tuch even makes the league long term. It's pretty obvious he wouldn't have gone second round if a bunch of leagues didn't cancel their 2019-2020 seasons mid way. We reached because of bloodlines. We obviously didn't have a good read on many areas. Smith and Biondi being terrible picks even for Bergevin and Timmins. They obviously weren't able to scout Europe and the draft reflected it.

 

[Andrei79]

Yeah if they play Tuch to burn off a year, I'd say Hughes lost some leverage for future NCAA players.

I'm fine with it. They have most of the leverage in any case. I would be more cautious if our better players were asking 9M$. Handing out contracts like the Leafs is what Im more worried about.

 

[jfm133]

Sure, such a bad pick. Go look what was taken after him. Nothing significant at this point.

He was a bad pick but it would be disappointing to have him walk for nothing when he starts trending up for the first time.

 

[montreal]

Tuch turned 22 last month but keep in mind he lost a year of development due to covid and injuries, he played on 42 games in his 1st 2 years, he played 40 last season and 39 this year.

He's been slower to develop in part because I think he has some similar issues to McCarron in that he's not sure what he is yet. With both players in the USNDTP, they were the big guys that crashed and banged but both sort of got away from that 4th line grinding physical game and tried to focus more on the offensive side of things. Tuch has talked about how much energy it takes to play that kind of game and how he wanted to focus more on playing the game and less on just hitting people.

When you watch his games over the years I think you see someone that maybe at times thinks too much instead of just playing like he did last game where he uses his speed and size to wreck havoc and cause players to hurry up before he smashed into them at high speed. To me that's where he's at his best in terms of what his role could be in the NHL as I don't know if he has close to his brothers offensive skill.

 

[Michoulicious]

Upside of 4th liner with size at the NHL level. Not much else to say.

Will be a nice tandem in the AHL next year with Florian Xhekaj. Needs to play physical and fill a role to get in the show. We'll see.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Sure, such a bad pick. Go look what was taken after him. Nothing significant at this point.

He definitely was not a bad pick as any pick at 47 OA that has still has a reasonable chance at an NHL career at the age of 22 is a well above average selection. If he ends up having a 10 year career as a physical, mobile 4th liner who occasionally moves up to the third line he will objectively be a very good pick as most 47 OA picks don't get a sniff of regular NHL playing time.

Upside of 4th liner with size at the NHL level. Not much else to say.

Will be a nice tandem in the AHL next year with Florian Xhekaj. Needs to play physical and fill a role to get in the show. We'll see.

His upside is as a 3rd liner but he is more likely to be a 4th liner.

 

[themilosh]

That’s a fair opinion to have. I’m just saying moving forward, you will have to offer it to every NCAA player you pick from here on out. Farrell was at least a star in the NCAA. He’s turning out to be a dud, but he wasn’t at the time.

well the NCAA development pathway IMO is vastly superior to CHL (for non superstars). So there is a slight benefit to playing 4 years NCAA vs leaving Uni and toiling in the AHL after juniors.

 

[MrNasty]

Trending up in his D+4 playing with the 2024 first overall pick. He's a year younger than Cole who is in his fourth NHL season, third full season. Slaf is also in his D+2 and breaking out in a very big way. Tuch had 10 points in the NCAA at the same age.

If Hutson and Celebrini hadn't chosen BU he probably would have never broke that barrier either. His brother got him invited to team USA at the World Championships where he was pretty much a non-factor. He's also not as big or as fast as his brother, on top of being way less skilled. If Celebrini weren't there this year there's a good chance Tuch only gets an AHL tryout contract. If his brother wasn't in the league I don't think he gets an ELC either, I think it's only us and Buffalo competing for his services and Hughes not wanting to lose assets for free.

I am not sure Tuch even makes the league long term. It's pretty obvious he wouldn't have gone second round if a bunch of leagues didn't cancel their 2019-2020 seasons mid way. We reached because of bloodlines. We obviously didn't have a good read on many areas. Smith and Biondi being terrible picks even for Bergevin and Timmins. They obviously weren't able to scout Europe and the draft reflected it.

There are only a handful of guys drafted after him that will play regularly in the NHL. Not sure what you expect here.