You're criminally underrating Jack Campbell.
He's in his prime years and signed to a great contract. Easy pass.
I'm underrating him? His quality start percentage is .350. And his goal saved above average is -4.73 while averaging 28 shots against per game. To compare, Casey DeSmith last year, QS% .600 and GSAA +6.54 who averaged 29.4 shots against.
Campbell is certainly better than Hutch, but he's still a low end backup who will be making 1.6M per at 29, and with little track record.
Anything more than a late 3rd is clearly LA taking the buying GM to the toolshed.