Long Term Player Outlooks for Nielsen, Abdelkader and Helm

[Winger98]

Personally, I think the issues with these contracts are severely overblown. 3 players equate to 15% of total roster spots. These guys take up a combined 18% of the cap ceiling.

In regards to term, they expire at 34-36 except for Nielsen and he is the most capable and least likely to breakdown. I also view all of them as contributing players. Certainly there is value in flexibility but having contributing players under contract is not a bad thing.


Now all of that said, having both Helm and Abdelkader on contracts that carry them to 34+ does seem redundant.

Yes and no. I think the biggest cost is opportunity. They aren't bad players, but they aren't core guys, either, who carry you on deep playoff runs. If we could have grabbed a handful of 2nd and 3rd rounders for them in TDL deals, those extra rolls of the dice could have paid much bigger dividends than either are going to give us in the lineup (or we could come up snake eyes on all of them and be SOL).

Their contracts also make it substantially harder to pull of a deal. Trades aren't exactly common as it is, having to do everything essentially dollar for dollar makes it nearly impossible.

 

[Squirrel in the Hole]

Every player has taken a gigantic stepback with Jeff Blashill and there's no working PP.

The epitaph of this season

 

[Dotter]

Is Abdelkader and Helm having a down year or is this who they are? I think the entire team is having a down year.

 

[jkutswings]

Is Abdelkader and Helm having a down year or is this who they are? I think the entire team is having a down year.

I agree that they're probably better than they have performed this season.

But I also think that neither one is as good as their contract.

Abdelkader seemingly got paid based on a career year indicating that he would continue to significantly overperform, relative to both his prior averages and the way his style of play tends to trend as a player ages. Even if he does 50% better than he has this year, it just wasn't nearly sustainable to give him 7 years.

And Helm? Unless he used the jedi mind trick on Holland, I have no idea what the basis for his contract was.

Both guys are useful 3rd liners for the right money. But this team, during this era, doesn't need to collect useful 3rd liners on long-term deals. They need to collect draft picks and ELC contracts, with the occasional veteran on either a Vanek-esque tryout, or a 3-4 year stabilizing role (Mike Green).

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

I think the day we signed Abdelkader to his contract extension, my expectations for the future plummeted. After signing Helm to an extension and then Nielsen for six years, it was one of those things where there was no need to cry for me, I was already dead.

 

[Wood Stick]

A 40-45 point good two-way C gets 5M per. Not really overpaid. Length is eh, but like mentioned, if he gets Mantha and Tatar he's much higher.

 

[Big Poppa Puck]

Nielsen has been fine. And I think will age fine too. If his point totals are below expectations, well so are everyone else on the team. Still have no problem with that deal. (maybe a year or two too long though.)


I never minded Abdelkader's cap hit but he needs to riding the coatails of a star in the top 6 to be worth it and we lost that when Datsyuk left and Gator had no one to shoot pucks off him into the net anymore. The term was always awful (7 years? FFS KH. ) I feel like he is our next Cleary.


I was the biggest Helm fan for years but he should have never have been re-signed to begin and if he was going to be it shouldn't have been at that awful contract. The moment his speed starts to go we're looking at Drew Miller at best but at almost 3x the cap hit. Hopefully Vegas takes him assuming Holland doesn't protect him for some God forsaken reason.

 

[Winger98]

Is Abdelkader and Helm having a down year or is this who they are? I think the entire team is having a down year.

Health aside, Helm is pacing for what should probably be realistic for him points wise. He's pacing for around 28 points over 82 games which slides in nicely with his production throughout his career.

I think we're seeing largely what Gator is, though, unless he finds some special chemistry with one of our top centers. And is then force fed IT there.

 

[Frk It]

He's pacing for around 28 points over 82 games which slides in nicely with his production throughout his career.

Well his average career production isn't worth 3.85 million. That's the whole problem with these contracts. These guys have to consistently outperform what their career averages are to prove their worth, and they're not gonna do it.

 

[Winger98]

Well his average career production isn't worth 3.85 million. That's the whole problem with these contracts. These guys have to consistently outperform what their career averages are to prove their worth, and they're not gonna do it.

well, that wasn't the question.

I agree it's an overpayment regardless, the question is how much of an overpayment it will end up being. Right now, I think Helm's contract will end up being the better between Helm and Gator.

Gator's contract just grates on me. Largely because he's horribly overpaid and he's unlikely to live up to that. Also partly because if guys like Sheahan and Jurco played to their size rather than playing like guys smaller than them, then Gator wouldn't have been such a unique player to this team. Take Gator off this team and we do lose one of the few guys who is routinely physical.

 

[Frk It]

well, that wasn't the question.

I agree it's an overpayment regardless, the question is how much of an overpayment it will end up being. Right now, I think Helm's contract will end up being the better between Helm and Gator.

Gator's contract just grates on me. Largely because he's horribly overpaid and he's unlikely to live up to that. Also partly because if guys like Sheahan and Jurco played to their size rather than playing like guys smaller than them, then Gator wouldn't have been such a unique player to this team. Take Gator off this team and we do lose one of the few guys who is routinely physical.

It's funny, I am the opposite. Abdelkader has at least had a 23-21-44 season. As unlikely as it is he gets back to that, I mean at least he's done it. .

Helm has just never put up the production to justify his price tag. Like ever. Plus he is injury prone. Plus he doesn't really play center that often anymore.

I just will never understand that stupid ****ing contract.

 

[Bench]

We're seeing what a team headlined by this trio looks like. It's ugly.

Abdelkader is the worst deal for me. He can't generate any offense on his own. He's not a defensive specialist. And his physical element is way overblown, as be only strikes fear into players like bones Mike Riberio.

Still blows my mind you negotiate a maximum UFA deal with him. Max! How the hell is that anything but a huge back massage and roses from Ken Holland.

 

[Winger98]

It's funny, I am the opposite. Abdelkader has at least had a 23-21-44 season. As unlikely as it is he gets back to that, I mean at least he's done it. .

Helm has just never put up the production to justify his price tag. Like ever. Plus he is injury prone. Plus he doesn't really play center that often anymore.

I just will never understand that stupid ****ing contract.

But Helm has put up his points without Datsyuk next to him, and his deal is several years shorter. And with a lower cap hit. It's unlikely either of these guys deliver to a level to justify their deals, but Helm is more likely to come closer.

Once we signed Abdelkader, I think the die was cast that we were going to max our cap for the foreseeable future. With Franzen already a likely LTIR case, not spending to the max and taking advantage of that just didn't make sense. Helm, imo, was a case of being a guy Holland didn't think he could replace for that price tag on the open market. So he threw his money down and went with it.

 

[Bench]

Helm, imo, was a case of being a guy Holland didn't think he could replace for that price tag on the open market. So he threw his money down and went with it.

To be fair he's probably right. Helm's deal is, once again, too long but the cap hit is right on par for what you'll find with a #3 center who can be a PK threat.

On a team with a more complete roster, Helm is a solid fit and I could see him having success as a Jarret Stoll type. Of course what we're seeing with the Wings is that Jarret Stoll is being asked to crunch time into the top 6 while also being asked to pick up the offensive slack created by his buddies.

In a vacuum, none of these players or their contracts are killers. We've beat this point to death, I think. But combined, you have a significant collection of overpaid long-term deals of mediocre talent. Remove Abdelkader and Nielsen and the Helm deal is clipping along fine. The issues come up when you have all 3 of these guys plugging away in your top 9 skaters for the next 5 years with a combined cap of $13.35 million. Imagine, you could get two $7 million dollar forwards, presumably much higher impact, for virtually the same price. Guys who fell into that price range include centers like Ryan O'Reilly or Kesler. Your opinion of them may vary, but their combined cap hit works out to about the same as our 3 boys and I think you're competing much better in the immediate and long-term with them. Just an example of getting value out of your $14 million, you know?

It's like Holland is doing his best rendition of the classic George Carlin joke: "I never *bleeped* a ten, but one night, I *bleeped* five twos."

The math works out, right?

 

[Pavels Dog]

Helm has just never put up the production to justify his price tag.

I guess we have different expectations of what you get out of 3.5-4.0 million in today's league. I also don't the cap-hit of a contract is 100% relative to the point production. Helm brings the qualities that would quickly increase his pricetag if he scored a little more.

 

[Frk It]

I guess we have different expectations of what you get out of 3.5-4.0 million in today's league. I also don't the cap-hit of a contract is 100% relative to the point production. Helm brings the qualities that would quickly increase his pricetag if he scored a little more.

If he was still Darren Helm, the 3rd line center that hits everything and PK'ed like an animal, I'd agree.

But he is now Darren Helm, the injury-prone winger that is rarely physical, isn't a top 2 PK'er, and brings speed and nothing else.

 

[Heaton]

If he was still Darren Helm, the 3rd line center that hits everything and PK'ed like an animal, I'd agree.

But he is now Darren Helm, the injury-prone winger that is rarely physical, isn't a top 2 PK'er, and brings speed and nothing else.

I miss the Darren Helm from the back-to-back final appearances. His only job was to forecheck and hit everything that moved, and he was great at it. At some point they tried to evolve his game and while he improved in some areas, he lost that tenaciousness.

 

[GoAwayDanCleary]

Helm is by far the most valuable of the three.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Helm is by far the most valuable of the three.

How?

Nielsen is a quality second line center. Albeit one that is 32 years old and will probably decline for the remainder of his contract.

Helm is a 20-25 point forward that's fast and almost his entire contract takes place in his 30's. When he loses a step, what else does he bring to the table?

 

[SpookyTsuki]

Helm is by far the most valuable of the three.

Nielsen > helm > abdelkader

With the contracts it's helm >> abdelkader

 

[SpookyTsuki]

It's funny, I am the opposite. Abdelkader has at least had a 23-21-44 season. As unlikely as it is he gets back to that, I mean at least he's done it. .

Helm has just never put up the production to justify his price tag. Like ever. Plus he is injury prone. Plus he doesn't really play center that often anymore.

I just will never understand that stupid ****ing contract.

This is helms first year where he's missed significant games since coming back from injury where abdelkaders best year he would barely outproduce him had helm played the full year or close to it

Abdelkader only beat helm by 8 points with about 30 more games since helm came back without I think 2 years of playing. Could be longer

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I hate that they re-signed Helm. I hated it at the time, I still hate it and I won't like it for the duration of the contract. I get that he is a unique player, but given we had other burners it was time to turn the page. We know what Helm is and I just didn't think he needed to be back, value or not I just don't get it and I never will.

Nielsen's numbers to me come down to his abysmal teammates. I actually like the way he plays, is who I thought he was. I didn't think we would have the last place PP in the league and I didn't think our offense would be this bad because of our D's inability to move the puck.

Abdelkader looks hurt, but he and Larkin have big off-seasons to be sure. He got a letter and he got to be on Team USA and his regression and lack of physical engagement at times this year is startling. He needs to find something and he needs to put in a big turn in the off-season. I am not sure if he isn't healthy it looks like he isn't but we aren't hearing anything. I hope he can get back to being a valuable swiss army physical tool for this team. His contract is never going to be pretty for most, but he needs to bring those intangibles again for it to be defended at all.

As with all of these threads, it is time to start listing DeKeyser whenever we have one of these. Guy is getting outproduced by Nick Jensen. I know I have always been a Jensen proponent, but that shouldn't be happening. DeKeyser has no puck skills and is still getting worked in front of his own net and in the corners. He has easily been the worst defensively on a pair with Mike Green never known for his defensive prowess though I think Green is underrated by people there. Still he has one of the worst contracts on the team, certainly right there with Helm and Abdelkader. It is a big problem moving forward. I hope the good ole Michigan boys are busting their backsides in the middle of May because what they have brought has been totally unacceptable.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

This is helms first year where he's missed significant games since coming back from injury where abdelkaders best year he would barely outproduce him had helm played the full year or close to it

Abdelkader only beat helm by 8 points with about 30 more games since helm came back without I think 2 years of playing. Could be longer

Helm doesn't play full years when he is going to be productive. So he hasn't done it and he doesn't get credit for it. Especially since he throws in a couple 15 game stretches of futility in every year he actually stays healthy. Darren Helm doesn't have the finish, he isn't going to get it over night and he has never collected enough garbage goals to think he is going to get them the greasy way to bridge the gap moving forward either.

 

[obey86]

I actually really like Helm and Abdelkader as players. Just sucks about their contracts.

The Dekeyser contract is just as bad too IMO. What a brutal player he's become. 0 offensive ability. Gets killed in the corners every time. It makes me wonder if he was being carried by Kyle Quincey.

 

[Frk It]

I hate that they re-signed Helm. I hated it at the time, I still hate it and I won't like it for the duration of the contract. I get that he is a unique player, but given we had other burners it was time to turn the page. We know what Helm is and I just didn't think he needed to be back, value or not I just don't get it and I never will.

Nielsen's numbers to me come down to his abysmal teammates. I actually like the way he plays, is who I thought he was. I didn't think we would have the last place PP in the league and I didn't think our offense would be this bad because of our D's inability to move the puck.

Abdelkader looks hurt, but he and Larkin have big off-seasons to be sure. He got a letter and he got to be on Team USA and his regression and lack of physical engagement at times this year is startling. He needs to find something and he needs to put in a big turn in the off-season. I am not sure if he isn't healthy it looks like he isn't but we aren't hearing anything. I hope he can get back to being a valuable swiss army physical tool for this team. His contract is never going to be pretty for most, but he needs to bring those intangibles again for it to be defended at all.

As with all of these threads, it is time to start listing DeKeyser whenever we have one of these. Guy is getting outproduced by Nick Jensen. I know I have always been a Jensen proponent, but that shouldn't be happening. DeKeyser has no puck skills and is still getting worked in front of his own net and in the corners. He has easily been the worst defensively on a pair with Mike Green never known for his defensive prowess though I think Green is underrated by people there. Still he has one of the worst contracts on the team, certainly right there with Helm and Abdelkader. It is a big problem moving forward. I hope the good ole Michigan boys are busting their backsides in the middle of May because what they have brought has been totally unacceptable.

Agree with literally every single thing you said here.