Long Term Player Outlooks for Nielsen, Abdelkader and Helm

[Heaton]

Justin Abdelkader, Darren Helm and Frans Nielsen all signed long term deals this past year. It's safe to say that they've been pretty underwhelming so far. Combined their cap hit is 13.35 and for this season in 131 combined games they have amassed 21 goals and 31 assists.

Nielsen is on pace for 15 goals and 39 points, not exactly what you hope out of a 5.25m/year cap hit.

Abdelkader is on pace for 6 goals and 20 points, many expected him to be a lock to score in the high teens for goals at least, but Abdelkader sitting at 4 goals currently is indefensible.

Darren Helm is on pace for 10 goals and 19 points.

This year has been a major bust for all 3 of these players who Ken Holland expected to be core players on a rebuilding team.

Abdelkader benefited from riding shotgun on the top line, but when that didn't work this year he hasn't been effective.

Helm started off well but his usual injuries derailed him.

Nielsen was expected to produce just as much as Datsyuk did, but he hasn't been anywhere close to what we need out of him.

For those who still believe in them and their contracts, what do you expect out of them for next season? And if you expect a rebound year, why do you feel that way?

Click to read more...

 

[Mount Suribachi]

Nielsen was expected to produce just as much as Datsyuk did, but he hasn't been anywhere close to what we need out of him.

BS. Who ever said that? He's a decent two way 2C producing exactly as can be expected.

Just because another vet signed for $$$$$ to his mid 30s is the opposite of what we need, lets not pretend Nielsen has been a bust.

As for the rest, I'm bored to tears with all the whining about 8 and 43. Do we really need ANOTHER thread on their contracts? How many more times are we going to have the same discussions between now and 2022?

 

[Heaton]

BS. Who ever said that? He's a decent two way 2C producing exactly as can be expected.

Just because another vet signed for $$$$$ to his mid 30s is the opposite of what we need, lets not pretend Nielsen has been a bust.

Plenty of people expected Nielsen to be able to put up 45-50points, didn't you?

As for the rest, I'm bored to tears with all the whining about 8 and 43. Do we really need ANOTHER thread on their contracts? How many more times are we going to have the same discussions between now and 2022?

Get used to it, while they're contributing nothing they're going to get bashed on a lot, and rightfully so.

 

[Winger98]

I'm not sure I can be lumped into the group that believes in them but I think Nielsen could rebound a bit just because he has the raw skills to give room to improve those numbers and he'll be coming into his second season on a new team - so any transition problems will be gone.

Gator and Helm, well. Yeah. They'll be on the ice next year, other than that my expectations are pretty low.

 

[Retire91]

I think Nielsen is better than his pace this season. As bad as I feel the team is right now I think several of the players are under performing and Nielsen is one of them. Not that playing to their expectation would help this team any. Its a train wreck. But aside from that I think Nielsen is a decent 2C under performing and signed for too much for too long. But I think it would be easy for him to do better next season.

Abby and Helm I think are performing to our expectation, but certainly not the expectation Holland signed them to. Those contracts are now forever attached to his legacy.

 

[njx9]

Nielsen will continue to regress. It's sort of what happens to players as they age on the wrong side of 30. Helm and Abbie will continue to be the complete non-factors they've always been, unless Datsyuk decides to come back and play with Abbie.

But hey, intangibles and grit and veteran leadership.

 

[Reddwit]

I'm not that worried about Nielsen. He doesn't look or play like he's 32, so I think he could be productive, albeit overpaid, for most of his deal. He might even be productive for all of it. He's great at avoiding hits, his legs seem young, and he has no real injury history. That could give him some longevity. He's also great on the PP, so he might still be useful as a PP specialist in his later years.

Abdelkader is a loss. Complete and total nightmare. I said his contract would look bad fast before he even re-signed and what I had in mind was much more palatable than what he ultimately signed for. You don't sign historically grinding FAs when they're coming off an anomalous year or two unless you are a legit contender and said player is a huge reason for your success. What a massive missed opportunity to trade that guy when his value was through the roof. The contract was and is indefensible and will be for its duration. We're going to have to make peace with it.

Helm's deal is bad but not so bad that it's un-moveable with retention at some point, assuming he isn't undone by injuries. I'm hoping he goes exposed in the expansion draft because, if he does, I could see Vegas using him and his deal as a way of forming an identity. He could even be their captain. Vegas is going to want at least a few long-term contract's to give their organization some stability and continuity. Hopefully that will be Helm.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Honestly the point totals for Nielsen don't bother me. It was the expectation that Nielsen could replace Datsyuk in general. Even if Nielsen put up 50-60 points this season, he still wouldn't come close to actually breaking even in terms of what the Wings lost when Datsyuk left, and what Nielsen brought in.

Gator and Helm are middling bottom six forwards that were given contracts that had almost nothing to do with their actual on ice production. Helm more so than Gator.

Gator needs to be partnered with highly skilled talent and given loads of ES ice time and first unit PP ice time to look even remotely viable. Well the Wings don't really have that skill anymore. I expect Gator when healthy to be a 20-25 point forward going forward. Which makes his contract absolutely abysmal. Once he gets older and injuries start to take their toll on him, he will probably spend the last 2-3 years of his deal playing 40-50 games a season and averaging roughly 10-15 points a year.

Helm's contract is worse than Gator's, or maybe they are equally bad when you factor in that Gator had an extra two years tacked on to his deal. Helm never did anything over his entire career to warrant to contract that he was given. I also expect him to be a 20-25 point forward if he stays healthy, which i doubt will happen.

So to sum it up, their production doesn't really bother me. They are who we thought they were.

 

[Tatar Shots]

Wait there was someone who believed in those contracts?

I can understand why Holland gave Nielsen the contract that he did. I just can't understand who he thought he had to outbid by offering Abdelkader 7 years at 4+million. Nor can I understand resigning Helm after just signing Nielsen.

 

[HisNoodliness]

So personally Abby and Helm haven't been disappointing but that's because I had very low expectations. They are mediocre bottom six forwards. That's what they've always been. That's what they will always be. Their contracts are horrendous and were horrendous the second they signed them. Abdelkader's mom wouldn't have signed him to that contract. He should be making half that on 2-3 year deals. Same with Helm. If you ignore their contracts, they're fine as long as they aren't killing the top 6 and stay in the bottom 6.

Nielsen I think has been disappointing. It would be unfair to expect him to replace Datsyuk but he hasn't been quite good enough as our 2C. But I expect he will be a fine 2C for most of his time here. I think his point totals would rebound into the ~55 range if our team was functional again but for now I'd expect to get a ~45 point defensively responsible 2C. The biggest worry with him is that I think he might be a ~25 point 3C by the time we're good again. In which case his stay here will be really disappointing. Hopefully he can fight off father time. His style seems conducive to maintaining his play relatively well. I am pretty annoyed that he keeps winning us shootouts. He would have been a good addition five years ago, but it's too late.

I'd trade all three for a bag of picks.

 

[Wood Stick]

Frans Nielsen has been fine... Comparing him to Datsyuk is ridiculous.

 

[Heaton]

Frans Nielsen has been fine... Comparing him to Datsyuk is ridiculous.

We're talking production wise from Datsyuk's last season. I don't think it's ridiculous at all to expect 45-50 points from Nielsen and being disappointed when he doesn't crack 40.

 

[Heaton]

For those looking to see why I'm 'comparing' Nielsen to Datsyuk, I'm basing it off largely from some of the comments from the original Nielsen signing thread. And even though I can't find the video, Mickey was also touting Nielsen as being able to replicate Datsyuk's points and defensive abilities (albeit a 39 year old version of Datsyuk).

 

[Wood Stick]

We're talking production wise from Datsyuk's last season. I don't think it's ridiculous at all to expect 45-50 points from Nielsen and being disappointed when he doesn't crack 40.

He played 20 games with Luke Glendening. He played with a terrible 16/17 Dylan Larkin. When on the same line with AA and Vanek, his defensive play has let that line work. He's been fine.

 

[Heaton]

He played 20 games with Luke Glendening. He played with a terrible 16/17 Dylan Larkin. When on the same line with AA and Vanek, his defensive play has let that line work. He's been fine.

So what do you expect next season then?

 

[Wood Stick]

So what do you expect next season then?

Do you know? Every player has taken a gigantic stepback with Jeff Blashill and there's no working PP. Ideally, Frans Nielsen is a 45 point centre that's great defensively and can work in the middle with skill. Cover their mistakes really, keep possession alive. He doesn't need points to be completely effective.

We need a new coach. I want Todd Nelson up. I think with a new coach he improves on the stat sheet.

 

[Heaton]

Do you know? Every player has taken a gigantic stepback with Jeff Blashill and there's no working PP. Ideally, Frans Nielsen is a 45 point centre that's great defensively and can work in the middle with skill. Cover their mistakes really, keep possession alive. He doesn't need points to be completely effective.

We need a new coach. I want Todd Nelson up. I think with a new coach he improves on the stat sheet.

No, but he needs points to justify his massive contract. We can find players who can win faceoffs and be good defensively for less than 5.25m/yr.

Nielsen, like many others, hasn't been good enough, period. He's on pace to have one of his worst seasons ever and seeing that he'll be 33 next year it's more likely that he'll continue to regress rather than get better.

Obviously if Mantha, Tatar, AA, Nyquist and Larkin all take big steps forward next year they can help Nielsen's numbers. But Nielsen was supposed to be a guy to fix some issues, and we're talking about him like he's just another passenger.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

He played 20 games with Luke Glendening. He played with a terrible 16/17 Dylan Larkin. When on the same line with AA and Vanek, his defensive play has let that line work. He's been fine.

He was expected to play 82 games with some combo of Tatar, Nyquist, Mantha, and Vanek. Basically, get 2C role and 2C support. He has had neither due to Blashill blendering the lines over and over again. Even without consistent linemates and playing several games with offensively challenged plugs... He's on pace for 40 points. 0.50 PPG. Give him Tatar + Mantha for the whole season and his poitns look fine. He's been a big time disappointment defensively though.

 

[Tatar Shots]

So what do you expect next season then?

Everything to be awesome

Numerous pucks will bounce in off of Abdelkader's ass. Helm will only miss half the season and have a hot 3 game stretch when he returns from injury. Nielsen will hit 40 points. The team will squeak into the 8th seed with the stalwart defense of Dekeyser managing to move the puck out of his own zone occasionally. The team might even manage to win a playoff game. And rumor has it Riley Sheahan might even score a goal next year

 

[Frk It]

I'll never understand why Helm was re-signed to the terms that were given, so yeah I'd like to free ourselves from that deal any chance we get.

Nielsen I don't mind, given how weak we are down the middle.

Honestly I think Dekeyser's deal is at least as bad as Abdelkader's, and probably one of the 3 worst on the team. I don't think either one are ever going to produce what is expected of a 4.25 or 5 million dollar player, but at least Abdelkader hits and adds value in other ways.

 

[jkutswings]

I'm not upset with any of the players. They're not the ones who threw a pile of money in front of them, granting more AAV and more term than their production warranted.

That said, Nielsen could still be an acceptable signing, depending on what the franchise does to acquire talent while he's here. But Gator and Helm? I'd happily take a 7th rounder for either of them...If I had any faith in how that shiny new cap space would be utilized.

 

[Martinez]

Well technically Frans is out producing stamkos this season

 

[Heaton]

Well technically Frans is out producing stamkos this season

Haha, 8 more points in 40 more games.

 

[Martinez]

Haha, 8 more points in 40 more games.

*40 games of solid two way play and good locker room presence

 

[Run the Jewels]

I didn't mind the Weiss and Neilsen contracts because we needed someone to supplement Pav & Z. Weiss' contract was obviously awful. I'm fine with Neilsen's production and accepted that it's going to be a bad cap hit in 2-3 years. There's no defense for the Abby & Helm deals and I badly wanted to trade them. My concern is we don't optimize Smith & Vanek by trading them and instead sign them to awful deals. Holland is gonna give us one last awful summer before he retires.