I created this spreadsheet in less than half a hour so the math may be wrong but I don't think it is.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsOGYYuC55tidE1jXzFCWTkwSzdKOTJEM085MUptdHc#gid=0
The spreadsheet assumes the following fact that the NHLPA will not get their guaranteed lump sum of $12,543.70 billion that they want but that they will receive their 57%-54.3%-52.7%-52.2%-52.3%-52.4% of HRR that their offer is based upon the 7.1% growth.
Column's A-F show 5 different tables.
Table 1 - is the NHLPA proposal that shows their HRR percentage based on 7.1% growth.
Table 2 - is the NHL offer that shows HRR percentage based on 7.1% growth.
Table 3 (scenario 1) - is the NHLPA HRR % allocation but based on different growth % and takes into account that only a partial season will be played
Table 4 (scenario 2) - is the NHL HRR % offer based on assumptions made in table 3.
Table 5 (scenario 3) - is a 50/50 split established eventually with the assumptions made in table 3.
I made it so that you can manipulate the growth and how long the locked out season would be to generate the NHLPA's share of revenue.
As scenario 2 is the NHL's HRR % I did not include the numbers as I don't think its that important to look at.
What I did was compare Scenario 1 running about 10 different scenario's which assume the NHLPA's HRR allocation and it shows that any duration of a locked out season and different growth factors will lead the NHLPA to receive less money than they would if they accept scenario 3 (50/50 split of HRR with no lockout).
Any comments and maybe my math is wrong? But it seems pretty clear right now that a 50/50 HRR split eventually is the much better solution for the NHLPA than a lockout and losing any amount of games. I will change my opinion on this if I miscalculated anything but it shows in the numbers to me at the moment.
If you have any questions about reading the spreadsheet just let me know and I will try and answer it.