Likelihood Sens sign both Duchene and Stone

[lancepitlick]

Only hope is that the team comes flying out of the gate and somehow has a succesful season with Tkachuck and Chabot in particular thriving. Odds of this happening? Slim.

If Stone wanted to stay I'm sure he'd much prefer to be on a monster l9ng term deal. He's not.

Duchesne. Why would he want to stay here? He could go to any team he wants.

 

[Stylizer1]

Only hope is that the team comes flying out of the gate and somehow has a succesful season with Tkachuck and Chabot in particular thriving. Odds of this happening? Slim.

If Stone wanted to stay I'm sure he'd much prefer to be on a monster l9ng term deal. He's not.

Duchesne. Why would he want to stay here? He could go to any team he wants.

Duchene would probably take less to go to a better team.

 

[alfstheman]

Do you have a less than 0% chance poll option?

 

[NorthCoast]

Last night on the T$N panel they talked about resigning Duchene and Stone and how Ottawa was going to have to pay a premium over other teams to retain them considering rebuild/franchise mess.

What are the chances EM is willing to pay a premium, and in doing so admit that it's his own fault?


I would say Duchene is 100% gone if he is not resigned by a month before the TDL. This would require 1) Stone to be resigned, 2) probably a real light of hope in the teams performance (not playoffs but bubble maybe), 3) plus paying above what the market would offer.

I don't see any of the above happening let alone all three.


Stone might resign if they throw enough cash, NMC, captaincy, etc. etc. at him. Still, I just don't see Stone signing a long-term deal before the summer when he will have all the leverage and I don't see the team offering a fair contract before the TDL, at which point they will have to trade him to avoid losing him for nothing.


At the end of the day, if EM is not willing/able to offer front-loaded contracts then I can't see how either stays. If the panel is right and the sens need to pay a premium, then it's a premium on top of a front-loaded contract that Stone/Duchene will be able to get from some other team. I already did the math on EK and so I can safely say that a front-loaded contract could equal 10-15 million in additional money to the player because of interest, taxes, lockout, etc.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I think both players are in a wait and see situation. Will they make up their minds by the TDL? If Stone decides to stay early we have a much better chance with Duchene.. If not . I think both are gone by the TDL

 

[Alex1234]

My opinion:


NOT



A





CHANCE

 

[coladin]

Duchene sure is talking a good game, especially in today's article. Seems like everyone was tired of the divisive situation last year. He was really happy with how the team is hanging out this year, and likened it to when him and Craig had that great run . They both mentioned it was a very unified team.

So, who knows, him being this close to home and happy with the company he works with could sway him to stay. I am going to say 50-50

 

[stempniaksen]

What are the odds the Senators offer a fair market contract? (with signing bonuses, lock-out protection, ect)

Not even worth discussing it from Stone and Duchene's perspective if we already know the team won't step up to the plate.

 

[Stylizer1]

Duchene sure is talking a good game, especially in today's article. Seems like everyone was tired of the divisive situation last year. He was really happy with how the team is hanging out this year, and likened it to when him and Craig had that great run . They both mentioned it was a very unified team.

So, who knows, him being this close to home and happy with the company he works with could sway him to stay. I am going to say 50-50

Considering the flack he got in Colorado he probably knows that keeping his intentions close to the vest is his best option until the offseason.

 

[aragorn]

Based on the results of this poll I see a lot of the pessimists are still around. I bet they both get signed although I wouldn't mind trading Duchene for Noah Dobson plus ... they should be able to afford at least one of them & I would re-sign Stone.

 

[Sun God Nika]

I hope both get far away from Ottawa and make something with their careers

 

[Spirit of 67]

Sorry gang. I think they’re both gone.

 

[Fandlauer]

Have there even been any reports of talks with Duchene yet, or are we just not going to bother?

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Based on the results of this poll I see a lot of the pessimists are still around. I bet they both get signed although I wouldn't mind trading Duchene for Noah Dobson plus ... they should be able to afford at least one of them & I would re-sign Stone.

Wouldn't you say the pessimism is warranted in this case though? I mean it doesn't have to be a sky is falling scenario, but two things need to fall in place for it to happen.

-We need to offer almost identical 8 year, 8-9 mil per year, NMC, bonus laden deals. The idea that this franchise is capable of such a thing right now feels hard to believe. We just lost the best player this franchise will probably ever see because of money. Our last significant financial commitment iirc is Hoffman and that was a relatively small, short, non bonus, no nmc deal from a few years ago. Other than that it feels like it's been many years since we signed a massive deal (I guess Bobby Ryan's deal would be the last), and these two would both be the largest in franchise history in both AAV and signing bonuses. The fact that last we heard, they hadn't even tried negotiating with Duchene is concerning and could indicate it's all smoke and mirrors like the Karlsson situation.

-They need to want to stay. We have many sound bites that make it seem they want to stay, but also many that contradict them. Duchene has voiced publicly the appeal of being a UFA after watching what Tavares got to do. Stone has been more steadfast in voicing a desire to stay, but that one year deal they settled on is a bit of an undeniable red flag, and now they can't sign him until 2019 at the earliest.

-They have both voiced a wait and see approach to see how the team performs and management has said the same. We don't have a good roster, and while a surprise could happen, there's no denying that the odds are against that happening. If we suck again, as is predicted by almost everyone, they may want to move on regardless.

-There is not a lot of matured talent currently on the roster, and there has been some talk (including references to it by said Stone and Duchene) that either of them signing could depend on both of them staying. If one goes, that could again mean the other isn't open to staying either knowing that losing one of them sets the team being competitive back even further.

I want them both to stay, but I think the odds are against it happening, and the pessimism is warranted.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Have there even been any reports of talks with Duchene yet, or are we just not going to bother?

Not last we heard. Duchene said he was in no rush and Dorion has indicated that both wanted to see how things go for the team first, so they may not even be willing to listen until they see the team is not as bad as last year... in which case, don't hold your breath.

 

[aragorn]

Wouldn't you say the pessimism is warranted in this case though? I mean it doesn't have to be a sky is falling scenario, but two things need to fall in place for it to happen.

-We need to offer almost identical 8 year, 8-9 mil per year, NMC, bonus laden deals. The idea that this franchise is capable of such a thing right now feels hard to believe. We just lost the best player this franchise will probably ever see because of money. Our last significant financial commitment iirc is Hoffman and that was a relatively small, short, non bonus, no nmc deal from a few years ago. Other than that it feels like it's been many years since we signed a massive deal (I guess Bobby Ryan's deal would be the last), and these two would both be the largest in franchise history in both AAV and signing bonuses. The fact that last we heard, they hadn't even tried negotiating with Duchene is concerning and could indicate it's all smoke and mirrors like the Karlsson situation.

-They need to want to stay. We have many sound bites that make it seem they want to stay, but also many that contradict them. Duchene has voiced publicly the appeal of being a UFA after watching what Tavares got to do. Stone has been more steadfast in voicing a desire to stay, but that one year deal they settled on is a bit of an undeniable red flag, and now they can't sign him until 2019 at the earliest.

-They have both voiced a wait and see approach to see how the team performs and management has said the same. We don't have a good roster, and while a surprise could happen, there's no denying that the odds are against that happening. If we suck again, as is predicted by almost everyone, they may want to move on regardless.

-There is not a lot of matured talent currently on the roster, and there has been some talk (including references to it by said Stone and Duchene) that either of them signing could depend on both of them staying. If one goes, that could again mean the other isn't open to staying either knowing that losing one of them sets the team being competitive back even further.

I want them both to stay, but I think the odds are against it happening, and the pessimism is warranted.

There is also a great deal to be optimistic about with all of the good young players coming. Ottawa was the second worse team in the NHL last yr & they had to do something. EK was a great player but Ottawa never had a great team with him although they had a couple of good runs. I look forward to when Brown Tkachuk, Formenton, Batherson, Chabot, White & a few more of these kids are on the team full time. The only down side is that Mr. Dick Head is still the owner but they have a lot to look forward to with the kids. They weren't winning with these vets anyway, tbey had to make changes & I prefer watching the young guys more.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

There is also a great deal to be optimistic about with all of the good young players coming. Ottawa was the second worse team in the NHL last yr & they had to do something. EK was a great player but Ottawa never had a great team with him although they had a couple of good runs. I look forward to when Brown Tkachuk, Formenton, Batherson, Chabot, White & a few more of these kids are on the team full time. The only down side is that Mr. Dick Head is still the owner but they have a lot to look forward to with the kids. They weren't winning with these vets anyway, tbey had to make changes & I prefer watching the young guys more.

They have some decent youth on the way, but nothing earth shattering and I think they want to see how they come along this year before just relying on it.

The biggest hill to climb will likely be whether we can offer the massive deals they will want. So hard to see that happening right now, but I'd be ecstatic if it did.

 

[aragorn]

They have some decent youth on the way, but nothing earth shattering and I think they want to see how they come along this year before just relying on it.

The biggest hill to climb will likely be whether we can offer the massive deals they will want. So hard to see that happening right now, but I'd be ecstatic if it did.

What is the definition of earth shattering & how many teams have earth shattering players coming? I think Brown has top line potential, same for Tkachuk & Batherson. I think Chabot has top pairing potential & I think we have three good defencemen coming in Wolanin, Lajoie & Jaros. Gustavsson has #1 potential & Formenton, White, Chlapik & JBD could all turn into decent players so could Norris. The only teams that get earth shattering players are those who win the lottery or got lucky with one player. IMO Ottawa may have got lucky with Chabot, Brown, Tkachuk & Batherson.

 

[NyQuil]

I'm wondering if Brown is going to pan out.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

What is the definition of earth shattering & how many teams have earth shattering players coming? I think Brown has top line potential, same for Tkachuk & Batherson. I think Chabot has top pairing potential & I think we have three good defencemen coming in Wolanin, Lajoie & Jaros. Gustavsson has #1 potential & Formenton, White, Chlapik & JBD could all turn into decent players so could Norris. The only teams that get earth shattering players are those who win the lottery or got lucky with one player. IMO Ottawa may have got lucky with Chabot, Brown, Tkachuk & Batherson.

The lack of the high end blue chip prospects and that our prospect pool is considered fairly average in general, especially for a team lacking quality vets to sprinkle them in around. Do we have enough to form a solid core of top end players one day, or are we collecting a team of 2nd/3rd liners and 2nd/3rd pairing dmen? Correct me if I'm wrong here, I don't believe our prospect pool is even ranked in the top 10 by those that provide rankings for such a thing.

There is a lot to like there, but it's a strange pool for Dorion to be pointing to as some amazing cornerstone of a scorched earth rebuild like we're going through, especially since we won't get that really high end player next year with our first. Feels like a whole lot of hopes and dreams to me.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I'm wondering if Brown is going to pan out.

Big question marks if he doesn't.

If Duchene goes, what do we have left for a potential top line center?

That may need to be our next play is to get a backup plan moving there. Perhaps Stone and Duchene could bring one in at the deadline.

 

[coladin]

I'm not sure if the 8-9M players are getting their salaries structured like the superstars, are they?

 

[stempniaksen]

I'm not sure if the 8-9M players are getting their salaries structured like the superstars, are they?

Probably not to that extent, but guys like JVR, B.Schenn, O'Reilly and Hertl all have money up front on their (recently signed) deals.

The question is if Melnyk is willing to bite the bullet on any form of signing bonus, as that aspect seems (almost) inevitable if we want to lock these two guys up.

 

[coladin]

Probably not to that extent, but guys like JVR, B.Schenn, O'Reilly and Hertl all have money up front on their (recently signed) deals.

The question is if Melnyk is willing to bite the bullet on any form of signing bonus, as that aspect seems (almost) inevitable if we want to lock these two guys up.

Yeah, to an extent I suppose. Just not thinking that they will get Tavares-like structure on a smaller scale?

 

[Stylizer1]

Big question marks if he doesn't.

If Duchene goes, what do we have left for a potential top line center?

That may need to be our next play is to get a backup plan moving there. Perhaps Stone and Duchene could bring one in at the deadline.

We will be worse off than Montreal.