Likelihood Sens sign both Duchene and Stone

[Sensung]

Looking at next year (2019-20) situation with ONLY players currently under contract.

CapFriendly.com Armchair-GM User-Generated Roster

FORWARDS (13)

Right wing: Drake Batherson ($736,666) - Bobby Ryan ($7,250,000) - Mikkel Boedker ($4,000,000) - Andrew Sturtz ($767,500)

Centre: Logan Brown ($863,333) - Filip Chlapik ($728,333) - Jean-Gabriel Pageau ($3,100,000) - Chris Tierney ($2,937,500)

Left wing: Brady Tkachuk ($925,000) - Rudolfs Balcers ($759,167) - Alex Formenton ($753,333) - Zack Smith ($3,250,000)

Extra : Aaron Luchuk ($759,166)

DEFENSE (7)

Right: Christian Jaros ($755,000) - Dylan DeMelo ($900,000) - Ben Harpur ($725,000)

Left: Thomas Chabot ($863,333) - Maxime Lajoie ($710,000) - Mark Borowiecki ($1,200,000) -

Extra : Patrick Sieloff ($700,000)

GOALTENDER (2)

Craig Anderson ($4,750,000) - Mike Condon ($2,400,000)

RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (1)

Dion Phaneuf ($1,750,000)

DETAILS

Roster Size: 22
Salary Cap: $82,000,000
Cap Hit: $41,583,331
Cap Space: $40,416,669 (lol?)

LTIR

Clarke MacArthur ($4,650,000)
Marián Gáborík ($4,875,000)

$41,583,331 + $9,525,000 = $51,108,331


So even with MacArthur, Gaborik and Phaneuf dead money, that team of 22 players (normal Sens roster size) would be way way under the cap (probably around 62 M$ next year?)

Stone, Duchene, Dzingel : UFAs

Ceci, White, Wolanin, Paul : RFAs

Paajarvi and Pyatt probably gone as UFAs (or trade deadline), maybe re-sign McCormick (but will be cheap)

What the heck will happen? They will have to reach the cap floor, no choice to SPEND. And that's assuming that Zack Smith and Bobby Ryan are still here, and we know that Melnyk has been trying to get out of their contracts

Since they are forced to spend, I'll remain hopeful that Stone and Duchene are extended, because that is absolutely the right thing to do. Unfortunately, you need them to have the desire to stay (which I believe they have) but the problem is Melnyk and money. Need that ownership change asap once again.

Maybe Ceci and Dzingel should be packaged (with maybe even other assets) to get a nice upgrade somewhere, some kind of quantity for quality deal. Any ideas?

Extend White, Wolanin and Paul since they are still cost controlled.

Eugene can use assets to pick up dead money from around the league.

He's going to see how far he can go below the cap in real dollars spent until the lockout.

 

[Xspyrit]

Eugene can use assets to pick up dead money from around the league.

He's going to see how far he can go below the cap in real dollars spent until the lockout.

Who are those dead money contracts now? Most of them have expired or are about to expire. Arizona has a few that they also need.

To be useful for Melnyk, it needs to be a relatively big contract, 80% insured and that the player is confirmed « not able to play » by official doctors. As you can see in Zetterberg’s case, it’s pretty serious and it goes under investigation

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

We apparently offered Cody Ceci a 6 year contract prior to arbitration. If true, I doubt it's as simple as we can't sign players long term.

The issues probably have to do with signing bonuses, particularly lockout bonuses. It would not surprise me at all if both sides had agreed to a term and AAV that they felt was fair, but Stone was not willing to budge on lockout bonuses, and Melnyk was not willing to pay them.

Wow i completely missed that offer happening. It was starting to look like we're just incapable of any big contract committments more than just bonus money.

If you're right about us not being able to pay bonus lockout proof contacts then Stone and Duchene's fates are sealed unfortunately. They will both be due a significant amount in bonuses.

 

[Sensung]

Who are those dead money contracts now? Most of them have expired or are about to expire. Arizona has a few that they also need.

To be useful for Melnyk, it needs to be a relatively big contract, 80% insured and that the player is confirmed « not able to play » by official doctors. As you can see in Zetterberg’s case, it’s pretty serious and it goes under investigation

Like the Hossa skin condition?

There are still some available and Eugene only has to make it one more year to get to the lockout. What's to stop him from shipping Chabot to Arizona for one of those deals?

 

[ottawah]

I put the chance of Duchene signing at perhaps 10%. He went through all those rebuild years in Colorado and said he did not want to do it thats why he asked for a trade out. His comments after the Smith waiver incident shows contempt for management. And his expected signing number is 9+ million on term. Based on that I cannot see it happening.

Stone .... I think the team will pony up pretty big money and likely keep him. Probably wait until his next injury, let him be scared and make a deal. But they will have to offer above market value in all likelihood to get a deal done before July 1. And if Duchene is gone, 9M likely would do it.

But the signing bonus to lockout proof a contract may be a killer.

 

[SPF6ty9]

Worst case scenario is keeping one, and letting one walk. That pretty much ensures we don't totally rebuild, yet we likely won't be good enough for a playoff wildcard spot. Stuck in the middle again.

Keep both, and try to build from there, or trade both and go scorched Earth.

I disagree, having just Mark Stone lets say and our next best forward being Ryan or Pageau barring one of the young kids coming on this year still makes us an awful team that will all but surely be bottom 5 next season when we have our pick. We've got to spend on someone so may as well be a guy like that who seems to be not only a great player but a positive influence on the team.

Oilers had McDavid and a better forward group, defense group, and goalie I'd say and still finished bottom 10 last year. With or without Stone and Duchene this team is a long way away now that Karlsson and Hoffman are gone without anything close to proper replacements.

 

[Xspyrit]

Like the Hossa skin condition?

There are still some available and Eugene only has to make it one more year to get to the lockout. What's to stop him from shipping Chabot to Arizona for one of those deals?

But that's my question, please name them who fill all those conditions and who aren't already Arizona property...

And I Know you hate Melnyk, but Chabot for a contract like that? Ridiculous

 

[Hale The Villain]

After everything we have seen in the last year, I don't know how anyone can think Stone and Duchene are re-signing.

All signs point to them taking their opportunity to leave this disaster of an organization.

We're going to be trading both of them for disappointing returns and going all-out rebuild ala Pittsburgh/Buffalo/Edmonton etc...

That kind of rebuild is the only way we can salvage this franchise and get back to being a contender after a decade of mediocrity.

 

[JungleBeat]

Duchene is definitely on the way out. This guy is definitely not doing another rebuild.

 

[Sensung]

But that's my question, please name them who fill all those conditions and who aren't already Arizona property...

And I Know you hate Melnyk, but Chabot for a contract like that? Ridiculous

Trading EK for scraps so we wouldn't have to take back money.
Putting our 2nd line C on waivers to save money when we are already woefully weak down the middle with Pageau injury.

Literally every single one of the moves we make are $ motivated.

Why would Arizona not take Chabot and Smith for Hossa?

Why wouldn't Detroit do a similar deal for Zetterburg and/or Franzen?

Vegas for Clarkson?

Eugene has options if he chooses to go that route.

 

[Marnie]

Trading EK for scraps so we wouldn't have to take back money.
Putting our 2nd line C on waivers to save money when we are already woefully weak down the middle with Pageau injury.

Literally every single one of the moves we make are $ motivated.

Why would Arizona not take Chabot and Smith for Hossa?

Why wouldn't Detroit do a similar deal for Zetterburg and/or Franzen?

Vegas for Clarkson?

Eugene has options if he chooses to go that route.

You don’t think we could get more than an expiring contract for chabot ? What?

 

[Sensung]

You don’t think we could get more than an expiring contract for chabot ? What?

The debate was if Melnyk would use valuable assets to acquire cap hits to meet the floor without increasing his actual payroll.

Xspirit was suggesting that Melnyk would have to sign Stone and/or Duchene to get to the cap floor. I was trying to demonstrate how he could go another season of spending far below the floor in an effort to make it to the lockout.

 

[Egg]

I think both remain, but I don't think Stone gets the C, to be honest.

 

[Micklebot]

I think both remain, but I don't think Stone gets the C, to be honest.

I hope you're right about the first part, and think you're wrong about the second (assuming he stays).

 

[Blotto71]

Time to close this thread.

Somebody! Get out the poll-hammer

 

[Egg]

I hope you're right about the first part

I'm quite confident about it, hence still being upbeat about this team.

 

[Que]

Neither are staying, though Mark would happily sign an extension.

Both will be traded, for a high salary, injured and insured contract, NHL ready prospect, a recently drafted prospect, a high pick and a medium pick.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Wow i completely missed that offer happening. It was starting to look like we're just incapable of any big contract committments more than just bonus money.

If you're right about us not being able to pay bonus lockout proof contacts then Stone and Duchene's fates are sealed unfortunately. They will both be due a significant amount in bonuses.

We could still keep them, but we'd have to overpay to compensate for no bonuses.

If Stone or Duchene are willing to sign for 8x8 with lockout bonuses, we'd need to sign them to an 8x8.875M per contract in order to compensate them for the roughly 7M they'd lose out on the lifetime of the contract through not having lockout protection.

 

[Knave]

This is a tough one. It's hard to imagine them staying but it's also hard to imagine how the league could absorb two large contracts (Stone is definitely getting one, Duchenne will too if he has a bounce back year instead of a bounce back 1/4 of a season).

I voted they both walk but it wouldn't surprise me if we managed to keep Duchenne.

 

[Sensung]

If the ownership structure changes, both sign in Ottawa.

 

[SensFactor]

Both will sign hopefully. I think both are waiting to see how this season turns out.

 

[SensFactor]

Poll is tight with 50 percent saying both will walk and 50 percent saying at least one will sign if not both.

 

[Blotto71]

If the ownership structure changes, both sign in Ottawa.

I think you mean all three

 

[Sensung]

I think you mean all three

True.

I could see Dzingle signing anyway as I don't think he has the star power to demand lockout bonus money.

 

[Blotto71]

True.

I could see Dzingle signing anyway as I don't think he has the star power to demand lockout bonus money.

I was thinking of someone else