Confirmed with Link: Lightning re-sign Andrei Vasilevskiy (3 years, $3.5M cap hit, $10.5M total)

[Sky04]

In either worst case scenario we'd be looking for a new goalie; the difference is that Vasy failing wouldn't cost us part of our core and cripple us capwise for the next 7-8 years like Bishop's injury problems worsening would.

What MAJOR injury has he had that leads you to this thinking? What is the largest time he's missed due to injury, I mean I could say Hedman's injury problems (significantly larger/longer than Bishop's, Hedman has yet to play a full season in the NHL throughout his career) could "cost us a piece of our core" or be financial detrimental to the team if it continues to happen or Johnson's lingering wrist injury that took him out for a series + entire regular season.

 

[DFC]

So I broke it down:

11/1 @CAR W 4-3, 35 shots against - 2nd of road B2B
11/27 @WAS L 2-4, 37 shots against - 2nd of 3 games in 4 nights, strong opponent
12/15 @TOR W 5-4, 37 shots against - 2nd of road B2B
1/15 PIT W 5-4, 40 shots against - start of a homestand (teams tend to underperform first game home), strong opponent
2/18 WPG W 6-5, 41 shots against - end of a homestand, weak opponent (though the Jets also got 36 shots against Bishop in October)
3/7 @PHI L 2-4, 39 shots against - 1st of a B2B, opponent on a hot streak that went and beat Bishop as well four days later, albeit on fewer shots

Honestly hard to knock Vasi for those games too much within context, and he did win 4 of those 6 for better or worse.

The back-to-back argument only works if you compare them to Bishop's starts. Bishop played 5 times (by my quick count) on the tale end of back-to-backs. He didn't give up 35+ shots a single time in that situation. Vasy, by your count, did it three times.

We give up more shots with Vasy in net because we spend more time scrambling. The shots aren't even the problem, they're just indicative of a bigger problem, which is all the scrambling, all the time spent playing defense. I'd like to see our possession numbers with both goalies, but I'd be willing to bet Bishop's are significantly better.

 

[Sky04]

No way we can keep Bishop ... cap crunch next year is REAL. People better start getting used to the idea ... we cannot keep Bishop. Per my calculations with the following cap hits:

Drouin RFA - $4M, Palat RFA - $5.5M, Johnson RFA - $5.5, Koekkoek RFA - $1.5M, Sustr RFA - $2M. With these cap hits plus a backup goalie at $1M and Filp Traded and Boyle not re-signed. We would be about $8M over the CAP if it were raised to $76M - yep that would mean an $84M roster next year. It is going to be hard enough without Bishop as we still need to find around $2M next year even without him.

So those people who are still in the Bishop camp ... get used to the idea of replacing him. Or by this time next year you are going to be *****ing & moaning about why our forwards can't score instead of Vasi's average rebound control.

https://s31.postimg.org/urqwo106j/Cap.png

I did my own crunch with the numbers you provided adding Killorn @4m, Kucherov @ 6.5m, Namestnikov @ 2m, where are you getting $84m from? I got $76.35m with a 20man roster, we're still over but it's not as dire as your projected numbers. Granted the numbers you suggested and I used for these players are likely on the low-end side.

http://pasteboard.co/8TApdFJYS.png

Yes it would be hard to keep Bishop, but not impossible. Lot's of flexibility rides on if we can move the Callahan contract. Him + Coburn is $9.5m free, along with Vasi (If we were keeping Bishop long term, it's likely he's traded) that's $13m free. If Bishop signed for $6.5m that leaves us with ~6m to fill a top-9 spot, a #4-6 D-man. In this scenario if we moved Callahan we could just re-sign Boyle.

If I missed something then let me know.

 

[Werewolf]

https://s31.postimg.org/urqwo106j/Cap.png

I did my own crunch with the numbers you provided adding Killorn @4m, Kucherov @ 6.5m, Namestnikov @ 2m, where are you getting $84m from? I got $76.35m with a 20man roster, we're still over but it's not as dire as your projected numbers. Granted the numbers you suggested and I used for these players are likely on the low-end side.

http://pasteboard.co/8TApdFJYS.png

Yes it would be hard to keep Bishop, but not impossible. Lot's of flexibility rides on if we can move the Callahan contract. Him + Coburn is $9.5m free, along with Vasi (If we were keeping Bishop long term, it's likely he's traded) that's $13m free. If Bishop signed for $6.5m that leaves us with ~6m to fill a top-9 spot, a #4-6 D-man. In this scenario if we moved Callahan we could just re-sign Boyle.

If I missed something then let me know.

Well you missed Bishop on the first link and that was the main idea behind my post which is the cap if we keep him. And you missed 3 other players - roster size is 23 not 20 - for ease of use I rounded to $1M per. Plus you are missing Carle's buyout of $1,800,000.

Palat - Stammer - Drouin = $18,000,000
Killorn - Johnson - Kuch = $16,000,000
Erne - Vladdy - Callahan = $8,700,000
Brown - Paquette - Condra = $3,300,000
(2 Roster Players) = $2,000,000
Forward Total = $47,100,000

Hedman - Stralman = $12,375,000
Garrison - Sustr = $6,600,000
Koekkoek - Coburn = $5,200,000
Nesterov =$1,000,000
Defense Total = $25,200,000

Bishop - Vasilevskiy = $9,500,000

Total = $83,600,000

So yeah approx $84,000,000 and that is with conservative figures. You can switch players and make trades and do what you wish. But in the scenario I posed - the number of $84 is what I came up with. I subtracted Bishop from the $84,000,000 and with a cap increase of ~$3,000,000 its basically the same roster and we are $78M or $2M over the "imaginary" cap.

 

[Lord Stan 2020]

https://s31.postimg.org/urqwo106j/Cap.png

I did my own crunch with the numbers you provided adding Killorn @4m, Kucherov @ 6.5m, Namestnikov @ 2m, where are you getting $84m from? I got $76.35m with a 20man roster, we're still over but it's not as dire as your projected numbers. Granted the numbers you suggested and I used for these players are likely on the low-end side.

http://pasteboard.co/8TApdFJYS.png

Yes it would be hard to keep Bishop, but not impossible. Lot's of flexibility rides on if we can move the Callahan contract. Him + Coburn is $9.5m free, along with Vasi (If we were keeping Bishop long term, it's likely he's traded) that's $13m free. If Bishop signed for $6.5m that leaves us with ~6m to fill a top-9 spot, a #4-6 D-man. In this scenario if we moved Callahan we could just re-sign Boyle.

If I missed something then let me know.

my numbers came out with like 6-7 million if move bishop coburn/garrison filppula and callahan this was with 75 million cap on expansion year. we need that window of flexibility why I think 4 of 5 most move. If keep another one we are capped and that is bad business to me.

 

[Sky04]

Well you missed Bishop on the first link and that was the main idea behind my post which is the cap if we keep him. And you missed 3 other players - roster size is 23 not 20 - for ease of use I rounded to $1M per. Plus you are missing Carle's buyout of $1,800,000.

Palat - Stammer - Drouin = $18,000,000
Killorn - Johnson - Kuch = $16,000,000
Erne - Vladdy - Callahan = $8,700,000
Brown - Paquette - Condra = $3,300,000
(2 Roster Players) = $2,000,000
Forward Total = $47,100,000

Hedman - Stralman = $12,375,000
Garrison - Sustr = $6,600,000
Koekkoek - Coburn = $5,200,000
Nesterov =$1,000,000
Defense Total = $25,200,000

Bishop - Vasilevskiy = $9,500,000

Total = $83,600,000

So yeah approx $84,000,000 and that is with conservative figures. You can switch players and make trades and do what you wish. But in the scenario I posed - the number of $84 is what I came up with. I subtracted Bishop from the $84,000,000 and with a cap increase of ~$3,000,000 its basically the same roster and we are $78M or $2M over the "imaginary" cap.

Assumed you didn't include Bishop considering you said "plus a backup goalie at $1m"...

If you sign Bishop, Vasi goes it's pretty much one or the other. Like I said it hinders a lot on that Callahan contract, with that along with either of Garrison/Coburn we'd be able to make it work. But I do understand that this is a lot of "what-ifs" and movement of players that isn't the norm for a team over the course of a season.

 

[Werewolf]

Regardless, we are looking at the man that turned Conacher into Bishop. That turned Marty into Callahan and two first rounders. If there is anyone that can judge talent and pull a rabbit out of a hat is Yzerman. That is a reason I'm not that worried - but Bishop is going to be moved its just that simple. Yzerman already said so himself - he is moving a goalie. For sentimental reasons I'd like Bishop to get a cup this year with this team. But after that I think its Vasi's ship to sail.

 

[GollyG]

That is a reason I'm not that worried - but Bishop is going to be moved its just that simple. Yzerman already said so himself - he is moving a goalie. For sentimental reasons I'd like Bishop to get a cup this year with this team. But after that I think its Vasi's ship to sail.

Stamkos played distracted this past season and wasn't as sharp. Assuming Bish knows it's him going to be traded or let walk 100%, how do you think that will affect his performance this year? Do guys that get traded at deadline get their names on the cup (assuming Bolts even win the cup)? Lots of assumptions on my part.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

Finals and ECF. Twice losing in big moments.

Pens with Vasy in net and they eliminate us in 5 games.

 

[Werewolf]

Stamkos played distracted this past season and wasn't as sharp. Assuming Bish knows it's him going to be traded or let walk 100%, how do you think that will affect his performance this year? Do guys that get traded at deadline get their names on the cup (assuming Bolts even win the cup)? Lots of assumptions on my part.

If it was me ... I'd think to myself. I have a shot at the cup and then I'm going to get a huge contract somewhere. That is enough incentive to perform rather than worrying about where you'll play. If he was a fringe NHL goalie yeah I'd be worried. But he is at the top of the food chain. He'll get to pick anywhere he wants to go and get a huge contract out of it. I don't think he has kids and stuff - does he? Once you have a family is probably harder - for Bish it should be fine.

 

[tjs*]

What MAJOR injury has he had that leads you to this thinking? What is the largest time he's missed due to injury, I mean I could say Hedman's injury problems (significantly larger/longer than Bishop's, Hedman has yet to play a full season in the NHL throughout his career) could "cost us a piece of our core" or be financial detrimental to the team if it continues to happen or Johnson's lingering wrist injury that took him out for a series + entire regular season.

It'd almost be better if there were a major injury that we could point to - then at least we could track the progress of his recovery and estimate the likelihood of a reoccurrence. Instead it seems that Bishop for whatever reason isn't capable of withstanding the rigors of a full season and postseason: by the end it's like he's made of glass and the slightest brush against him causes him to break.

Hedman's and Johnson's issues are certainly concerns as well but they are both different situations entirely from Bishop's. Hedman is flat out irreplaceable so resigning him was a must even with his injury history, and plus at least he's been healthy in the postseason when we need him the most. Johnson had one major injury (the wrist) that took a long time to heal and then was hampered by the knee-to-knee shot in the ECF; both of those are reasonable injuries in that any player receiving either of those would likely have had similar problems. I am concerned about his durability long term, largely due to his size and the fact that he relies so heavily on his speed and skating to be effective that a lower body injury can take him completely out of his game, but it's too early to say that he's overly fragile the way that Bishop is and in any event nobody is talking about giving him a seven or eight year deal like Bishop would require (I wouldn't be in favor of that either.)

 

[GollyG]

If it was me ... I'd think to myself. I have a shot at the cup and then I'm going to get a huge contract somewhere. That is enough incentive to perform rather than worrying about where you'll play. If he was a fringe NHL goalie yeah I'd be worried. But he is at the top of the food chain. He'll get to pick anywhere he wants to go and get a huge contract out of it. I don't think he has kids and stuff - does he? Once you have a family is probably harder - for Bish it should be fine.

That makes sense. Thanks.

 

[chasespace]

My statement had more to do with their comparable age. They both were equally experienced yet Murray won it all. Vasi's rebound control is atrocious and he let in unacceptable goals in pretty much every game.

No one can say anything that will convince me we would have fared the same or worse with Bishop in net during that series. We did play like dog **** most of the time but that's when Bish shines and saves us. I just don't see Vasilevskiy being able to step in as a full time starter and the Lightning making the playoffs.

That said, I hope I am wrong, and will gladly come eat the crow. I just don't get how everyone is crowning this kid.

If you don't think Bishop is the better option they why kick up a storm over picking an equal option in goal?

 

[LTIR Trickery]

The back-to-back argument only works if you compare them to Bishop's starts. Bishop played 5 times (by my quick count) on the tale end of back-to-backs. He didn't give up 35+ shots a single time in that situation. Vasy, by your count, did it three times.

We give up more shots with Vasy in net because we spend more time scrambling. The shots aren't even the problem, they're just indicative of a bigger problem, which is all the scrambling, all the time spent playing defense. I'd like to see our possession numbers with both goalies, but I'd be willing to bet Bishop's are significantly better.

If you're scrambling that much in your zone, that is indicative of having either slow defenders, irresponsible forwards, or defenders struggling with zone exits. That also isn't to absolve 88 of all responsibility, but you're blaming him for a lot of nonsensical stuff right now. When the guy gets a stretch of like... 12 straight or so, a homestand with back to backs he'll get it together. Its all about consistent work for him.

 

[DFC]

If you're scrambling that much in your zone, that is indicative of having either slow defenders, irresponsible forwards, or defenders struggling with zone exits. That also isn't to absolve 88 of all responsibility, but you're blaming him for a lot of nonsensical stuff right now. When the guy gets a stretch of like... 12 straight or so, a homestand with back to backs he'll get it together. Its all about consistent work for him.

"blaming" him is a bad way to put it. I'm just saying we're a lot better with Bishop, because he masks a lot of that stuff.

 

[Todd1a]

If you're scrambling that much in your zone, that is indicative of having either slow defenders, irresponsible forwards, or defenders struggling with zone exits. That also isn't to absolve 88 of all responsibility, but you're blaming him for a lot of nonsensical stuff right now. When the guy gets a stretch of like... 12 straight or so, a homestand with back to backs he'll get it together. Its all about consistent work for him.

Goodness you summed up me watching us playing the Penguins perfectly sir!

 

[Todd1a]

"blaming" him is a bad way to put it. I'm just saying we're a lot better with Bishop, because he masks a lot of that stuff.

I agree we are due to him being like a 3rd d man

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

 

[Volodya Krutov]

Did Gusev hear that ? Hey kiddo NHL is the real deal, come over here !

 

[LTIR Trickery]

Did Gusev hear that ? Hey kiddo NHL is the real deal, come over here !

Gusev will be over, eventually. He just has an agreement that when he comes over, its for a shot at the big club.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

Gusev will be over, eventually. He just has an agreement that when he comes over, its for a shot at the big club.

I don't know if it was done on purpose by Tampa, because Nikita seemed genuinely interested to play with his BFF Kuch in the NHL just 2 months before he decided to re-sign with SKA. But with hindsight it would have been the worst moment possible for Tampa to get him during an expansion draft year. We would have been in massive trouble to protect so many young players.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Hi guys, Leaf fan coming in peace. I was wondering for fantasy purposes what you guys think the Lightning's goaltending situation will be? Obviously Bishop will wtart but do you guus think he gets traded this season or at least splits the duties with Vasilevskiy? I was thinking of taking Vas with a later pick . Thanks in advance

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

Hi guys, Leaf fan coming in peace. I was wondering for fantasy purposes what you guys think the Lightning's goaltending situation will be? Obviously Bishop will wtart but do you guus think he gets traded this season or at least splits the duties with Vasilevskiy? I was thinking of taking Vas with a later pick . Thanks in advance

I probably wouldn't even pick him unless you have a deep bench, tbh.

 

[tjs*]

Unless we find ourselves in another early season hole I do think Vasy will get more starts this season than he did in the last one, both to prepare him for taking the reins next season and to hopefully keep Bishop healthy through the playoffs. But Bish is our starter and barring a substantial return or us being completely out of it by the TDL I don't see him being traded.

 

[HoseEmDown]

I'm pretty sure Vasilevskiy is our starter. You don't bench the guy who started game 7 and was 1 win away from taking you back to the SCF. Bishop will get spot starts to keep his trade value up but don't expect him to see the ice much next year, expecting 60+ starts from Vasilevskiy.