Let us Dream: Steven Stamkos to Toronto 2016/2017

[Jerkini]

Emotions aside (because I am also a massive Stamkos fan), what type of production are you expecting from Stamkos to justify a $10 million contract? Does he need minimum 80 points to keep you happy? Or is the sight of Stamkos in a Leaf jersey worth the price no matter the production? I know he's free and all, but you must have some idea of what you expect out of him. Otherwise, you are arguing based on emotion and not logic.

You don't bring in a player like Stamkos for production alone. He would be here to do a lot of things no one else in the franchise can. He would be the new face of the team. He would relieve pressure from everyone else. He would play a pivotal role in transforming this team. He would bring instant respectability to the on-ice product. He won't be able to do it alone nor would I expect him to. He would be one crucial piece of a much larger puzzle.

 

[Peace Frog]

That's a very strong argument for not signing him. Unless of course you think our goal is something other than to win the cup. And if we sign him, it doesn't matter if other top end talent want to play here or not, we won't have the money to pay them. Players will want to play here if they see a smart organization building towards winning the cup. Us paying 12m to a declining 30 year old Stamkos would have the opposite effect.

Elite players get paid elite contracts. That's the way it is. I get it.... you don't want to pay him what he would be given. That's fine. I would be willing to see him get paid what it would take to get him in a Leafs uniform.

Some posters seem to focus on the possibility that Stamkos might not be able to produce at the rate of expectation. He's an elite player and will eventually start to decline in production. That's the same for ALL players.... elite or otherwise. What he could do for this franchise is something I sure as hell am willing to see him get paid for.

 

[BayStreetBully]

I would expect him to produce at an elite level for a good 3-4 years, and slowly begin to decline in production after that. What he would bring to this franchise, is far more than just stats. though. He will attract other top end talent to want to play for the Leafs, he will be the Captain of this team and will help make it "safe for players to play here".

By the time his production starts to decline, I wonder what the salary cap will be? Will his contract still be considered to be possibly too much then? Even if he were to demand max salary from us, which I'm not entirely sure he would in the first place, what will the max be in 4-5 years?

That's a good answer. I am also onboard with bringing Stamkos at $10 million for 5 years with the right to trade him. I am not onboard with bringing him in at $12 million for 7 years and a NTC because it's just not smart. In essence, I would gamble that Stamkos could be worth it at the right price, even though he may let me down. But I would not gamble if the price is too high or the term length too long.

I do like your vision of him becoming captain and making it safe for players to play here. I don't think we will be able to afford other top end talent though, if we sign Stamkos. Not if our prospects turn out the way we want them to. So we are banking on Stamkos, Marner, Nylander, Kapanen and Rielly in that case. Which isn't bad at all, but we can't expect to afford any other high priced UFA. So we better make sure we are getting the right value for Stamkos. That's why I asked what he expect from him. Personally, at $10 million, I expect no less than top 10 scoring for the entire length of his contract. A season like the one he just had would be unacceptable. But at least with a 5 year deal rather than a longer one, AND with the ability to trade him, we would have an "out".

 

[MLG Ghost]

You don't bring in a player like Stamkos for production alone. He would be here to do a lot of things no one else in the franchise can. He would be the new face of the team. He would relieve pressure from everyone else. He would play a pivotal role in transforming this team. He would bring instant respectability to the on-ice product. He won't be able to do it alone nor would I expect him to. He would be one crucial piece of a much larger puzzle.

And what if, in four years say, Mitch Marner becomes the face of the team? What then? We're still paying him 12 million smackaroos!


I don't see how any team can sign a player for top dollar in 2016, with the expectation that he'll be slipping around 2019, at the exact wrong time.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Elite players get paid elite contracts. That's the way it is. I get it.... you don't want to pay him what he would be given. That's fine. I would be willing to see him get paid what it would take to get him in a Leafs uniform.

Some posters seem to focus on the possibility that Stamkos might not be able to produce at the rate of expectation. He's an elite player and will eventually start to decline in production. That's the same for ALL players.... elite or otherwise. What he could do for this franchise is something I sure as hell am willing to see him get paid for.

Lemmings over a cliff ...

Would you consider Duncan Keith an elite player? Do you know how much he is paid?

 

[Jerkini]

And what if, in four years say, Mitch Marner becomes the face of the team? What then? We're still paying him 12 million smackaroos!

Are you telling me that's a bad thing? Any team that has won anything in this league has had more than one player at Stamkos' level. That's not a bad thing my friend. That's what everyone should be hoping for.

 

[BayStreetBully]

You don't bring in a player like Stamkos for production alone. He would be here to do a lot of things no one else in the franchise can. He would be the new face of the team. He would relieve pressure from everyone else. He would play a pivotal role in transforming this team. He would bring instant respectability to the on-ice product. He won't be able to do it alone nor would I expect him to. He would be one crucial piece of a much larger puzzle.

Which is a long way of saying "80 points minimum, 90 points better." Unless he starts to excel in defense.

Because let's face it, Stamkos will be none of those things you mentioned if he only puts up 70 points yearly.

 

[MLG Ghost]

Are you telling me that's a bad thing? Any team that has won anything in this league has had more than one player at Stamkos' level. That's not a bad thing my friend. That's what everyone should be hoping for.

It's great thing, if Stamkos 2019 is the same as Stamkos 2015! If Steven is regressing in 2019, yeah, it could be a bad thing. 12 million smackaroos!!!

 

[Peace Frog]

Did Chicago make a big mistake in re-signing their two best players to $10.5M max term contracts? Is there anyone who wouldn't have re-signed them to those terms? What would the Hawks look like without Toews and Kane? In 5 years from now, is $10.5M going to seem like too much compared to what the salary cap will be then?

 

[BayStreetBully]

Did Chicago make a big mistake in re-signing their two best players to $10.5M max term contracts? Is there anyone who wouldn't have re-signed them to those terms? What would the Hawks look like without Toews and Kane? In 5 years from now, is $10.5M going to seem like too much compared to what the salary cap will be then?

Chicago had no choice, they would be crucified if they didn't re-sign them. If they had won 2 cups for the Leafs, I would support re-signing them as well. But I admit I would be speaking partly from an emotional perspective. I don't think their future performance will justify their next contracts.

 

[Deebo]

Would you consider Duncan Keith an elite player? Do you know how much he is paid?

If teams could could still sign players to 13 year back diving contracts, this would be relevant.

 

[Stephen]

And what if, in four years say, Mitch Marner becomes the face of the team? What then? We're still paying him 12 million smackaroos!


I don't see how any team can sign a player for top dollar in 2016, with the expectation that he'll be slipping around 2019, at the exact wrong time.

So you're telling me there's no room for Marner and Stamkos to both be elite forwards?

 

[The Thin White Duke]

So you're telling me there's no room for Marner and Stamkos to both be elite forwards?

I think he's getting at the point that if someone surpasses Stamkos on our team, the bar has been set and they'd expect more than 12 mil. Two elite forwards is great, but at a combined 25 mil maybe not.

 

[MLG Ghost]

Did Chicago make a big mistake in re-signing their two best players to $10.5M max term contracts? Is there anyone who wouldn't have re-signed them to those terms? What would the Hawks look like without Toews and Kane? In 5 years from now, is $10.5M going to seem like too much compared to what the salary cap will be then?

The answer is nobody knows, not the Hawks and certainly not us. There's a big difference in the Hawks and Leafs right now though. They have just come through an era of success and are resigning the guys who brought them there to, hopefully, continue the tradition.

If it works out for them, all great. If it doesn't, they won't view it a catastrophic blunder; Kane and Toews are now part of the Hawks tradition. Think Hull and Mikita; that's where they are.

We'll be hoping to pluck a star from another team to join a group of young guys who are trying to grow into something. If Stamkos does't work out for us? That'll be a whole different story then if the Kane and Toews signings don't work for Chicago.

I still think chasing free agents with mega bucks is a fools errand.

 

[MLG Ghost]

So you're telling me there's no room for Marner and Stamkos to both be elite forwards?

There is room for them to be elite players yes; the big unknown though is whether or not Stamkos will be elite when we need/expect him to be elite. That's all I am asking/saying.

 

[BayStreetBully]

So you're telling me there's no room for Marner and Stamkos to both be elite forwards?

Are we assuming Stamkos will even be an elite scorer?

And it's not just Stamkos that could decline as early as now. Ovechkin, Malkin and Crosby all got off to a hot start in their careers, and they all began to post lower numbers around age 25-26. They may still be too players, but they are still all a shadow of their former selves. It's not a knock on Stamkos personally if he does the same, that's just part of the cycle.

Imagine if we had signed Ovechkin for $12 million back in 2010 when he was still 25. 5 years later, he still hasn't matched his production from his days before he was 25.

 

[Gary Nylund]

If teams could could still sign players to 13 year back diving contracts, this would be relevant.

Choose another example if you like, the point is, not all elite players are paid the same. If a team has an elite player, they are much better off is the players cap hit is 8m then they are if his cap hit is 12m. That's the simple reason for me not getting on aboard the "if we can sign Stamkos we gotta do it" train, I need to no what the cost is before deciding if I think it's a good idea or not.

If Stamkos wants 14m per year for 7 years and a NTC, agreeing to those terms would set this franchise back years.

 

[Jerkini]

Are we assuming Stamkos will even be an elite scorer?

And it's not just Stamkos that could decline as early as now. Ovechkin, Malkin and Crosby all got off to a hot start in their careers, and they all began to post lower numbers around age 25-26. They may still be too players, but they are still all a shadow of their former selves. It's not a knock on Stamkos personally if he does the same, that's just part of the cycle.

Imagine if we had signed Ovechkin for $12 million back in 2010 when he was still 25. 5 years later, he still hasn't matched his production from his days before he was 25.

Seriously? I'm sure we'd all be losing sleep for having a 50-goal scorer in our line-up.

 

[Menzinger]

Did Chicago make a big mistake in re-signing their two best players to $10.5M max term contracts? Is there anyone who wouldn't have re-signed them to those terms? What would the Hawks look like without Toews and Kane? In 5 years from now, is $10.5M going to seem like too much compared to what the salary cap will be then?

Chicago would be better off moving out Kane for a massive collection of cheaper assets, while his value was at the absolute highest.

I understand why a GM/fanbase wouldn't like such a move initially, but I do believe that having so much cap space invested into just two players will severely hamper their ability to be contenders for much longer.

 

[Menzinger]

You don't bring in a player like Stamkos for production alone. He would be here to do a lot of things no one else in the franchise can. He would be the new face of the team. He would relieve pressure from everyone else. He would play a pivotal role in transforming this team. He would bring instant respectability to the on-ice product. He won't be able to do it alone nor would I expect him to. He would be one crucial piece of a much larger puzzle.

You don't pay somebody 12 million dollars under a cap system unless your sole focus is centred on their on ice performance. If Stamkos can't play hockey like a 12 million dollar player, the leafs shouldn't pay him as such.

If the team feels he will able to offset his inevitable physical decline and remain in the top tier of NHL point producers, well, that changes things.

 

[BayStreetBully]

Seriously? I'm sure we'd all be losing sleep for having a 50-goal scorer in our line-up.

$12 million for 80 points? No thanks.

You also missed the point of that post.

 

[Jerkini]

$12 million for 80 points? No thanks.

You also missed the point of that post.

News flash. Great players cost a lot of money. That's how this league works.

 

[hfdshdh]

Are we assuming Stamkos will even be an elite scorer?

And it's not just Stamkos that could decline as early as now. Ovechkin, Malkin and Crosby all got off to a hot start in their careers, and they all began to post lower numbers around age 25-26. They may still be too players, but they are still all a shadow of their former selves. It's not a knock on Stamkos personally if he does the same, that's just part of the cycle.

Imagine if we had signed Ovechkin for $12 million back in 2010 when he was still 25. 5 years later, he still hasn't matched his production from his days before he was 25.

It's a young man's game now. A majority of players, particularly offensive forwards, peak offensively before they're ever even eligible for unrestricted free agency.

Even with a player like Stamkos, I think it's likely best to just steer clear of signing any high-priced free agents to long-term contracts.

 

[MLG Ghost]

Seriously? I'm sure we'd all be losing sleep for having a 50-goal scorer in our line-up.

For how many seasons do you project him to be a 50 goal scorer. Not trying to be smart here, I am genuinely curious. We're looking at paying him 12 million for eight seasons right? How many of those do you project 50 goals.

 

[Jerkini]

You don't pay somebody 12 million dollars under a cap system unless your sole focus is centred on their on ice performance. If Stamkos can't play hockey like a 12 million dollar player, the leafs shouldn't pay him as such.

If the team feels he will able to offset his inevitable physical decline and remain in the top tier of NHL point producers, well, that changes things.

This fanbase hates great players. There's always something. There's always a reason why they are never good enough. People would find a reason why Sidney Crosby would be a terrible idea.