Speculation: Left Shooting Defensemen of interest to the Jets

[Huffer]

Never. Tanking is for ... well, the Oilers.

I don't think Darth is advocating for the Jets to tank. Just to get the HF "have your cake and eat it too" wish. (That I love too btw).

I think he's hoping to move Buff to a team that finds themselves in the lottery and the Jets get Chychrun with that pick. And then the Jets are free to go and make a playoff run anyway. Win/Win.

 

[Huffer]

Ducks have a load of left D and a shortage on the right. They have 3 young LHD, Lindholm, Fowler, Despres and 2 older depth players in Stoner and Fistric. On the right they have Vatanen and 33 year old Bieksa plus a depth player in Manson. They have 4 very strong D prospects in their system. 3 are lefties lead by Shea Theodore. They can certainly afford to move Fowler. You said yourself that they are in a win now mode so Buff could be a difference maker for them. Because of age and contract considerations it might require an add to Buff but not too large I think but younger. Kosmo might be about right.

Despres is a lefty, but I'm pretty sure the Ducks have him playing on the right side with Fowler, and I think that pair played pretty well.

 

[Daximus]

I don't think Darth is advocating for the Jets to tank. Just to get the HF "have your cake and eat it too" wish. (That I love too btw).

I think he's hoping to move Buff to a team that finds themselves in the lottery and the Jets get Chychrun with that pick. And then the Jets are free to go and make a playoff run anyway. Win/Win.

That's exactly what I want! We don't even need to win the first lottery because that pick will more than likely be Matthews, we need to win the second lottery. The return for Buff should be a 1st + Prospect + Roster player or another prospect.
That 1st is what I'm more interested in.
I think it isn't a bad thing to realize that maybe next year could very well be a slight regression year as we move a lot of rookies into the lineup and see progression from our younger players. But maybe the return players we get for Buff actually give us a boost on the season and we do manage to find our way in the Central division.

 

[Huffer]

That's exactly what I want! We don't even need to win the first lottery because that pick will more than likely be Matthews, we need to win the second lottery. The return for Buff should be a 1st + Prospect + Roster player or another prospect.
That 1st is what I'm more interested in.
I think it isn't a bad thing to realize that maybe next year could very well be a slight regression year as we move a lot of rookies into the lineup and see progression from our younger players. But maybe the return players we get for Buff actually give us a boost on the season and we do manage to find our way in the Central division.

Sorry Dax, I said Darth in my post. The Star Wars gif must have thrown me off.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Despres is a lefty, but I'm pretty sure the Ducks have him playing on the right side with Fowler, and I think that pair played pretty well.

That kind of supports my point. Ducks are overloaded on the left like we are on the right. There are a few other teams left-loaded. Some of them could be difficult to deal with because of cap etc. but there are possibilities for mutual balancing. Philly's left side bias is just crazy.

 

[Daximus]

Sorry Dax, I said Darth in my post. The Star Wars gif must have thrown me off.

haha no worries. Darth is an upgrade over my current title. I bet the pay for being a Sith Lord is pretty decent. I wonder if they get full dental benefits?

 

[Daximus]

That kind of supports my point. Ducks are overloaded on the left like we are on the right. There are a few other teams left-loaded. Some of them could be difficult to deal with because of cap etc. but there are possibilities for mutual balancing. Philly's left side bias is just crazy.

Philly would make an ideal trade partner for Buff.
1st + and Sanheim or Morin would be ideal.
We would also need to take on a cap dump from them because they are awfully close to the cap.

 

[Huffer]

That kind of supports my point. Ducks are overloaded on the left like we are on the right. There are a few other teams left-loaded. Some of them could be difficult to deal with because of cap etc. but there are possibilities for mutual balancing. Philly's left side bias is just crazy.

Actually, I look at it the other way. They are fine with him on the right and like the Fowler / Depres pairing. That leaves them with a Lindholm / Vatanen pair. If you look at it as they are fine with him on the right and don't want to switch him for a right hander, they don't have that much of an out of balance issue.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Philly would make an ideal trade partner for Buff.
1st + and Sanheim or Morin would be ideal.
We would also need to take on a cap dump from them because they are awfully close to the cap.

Philly fans seem to dump on Buff trade suggestions a) because of cap b) they don't want to give up any young assets but I see something like that as a possibility. The cap dump part becomes hard. We have to make it worthwhile for them as well as doable. The return for us has to make the cap dump worthwhile. They are loaded with the one thing we need though, LD so .... .

 

[Daximus]

Philly fans seem to dump on Buff trade suggestions a) because of cap b) they don't want to give up any young assets but I see something like that as a possibility. The cap dump part becomes hard. We have to make it worthwhile for them as well as doable. The return for us has to make the cap dump worthwhile. They are loaded with the one thing we need though, LD so .... .

The cap dump is the tricky part. Umberger seems to be on a downward trend. There is Vinny, but I'd be afraid of that one. Doesn't give them much room to resign him without dropping a few more players after next season. A deal that is beneficial to both teams but tough to accomplish.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Actually, I look at it the other way. They are fine with him on the right and like the Fowler / Depres pairing. That leaves them with a Lindholm / Vatanen pair. If you look at it as they are fine with him on the right and don't want to switch him for a right hander, they don't have that much of an out of balance issue.

They are coping with the issue but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. If we move a RHD to the left we are coping also. I was originally looking at it as meaning they are able to consider moving him if we make it interesting for them. I don't think all trades need to start by both teams having a problem to solve that fits the trade. One team approaches the other. Exactly how the conversation proceeds we don't know. In this case we have an asset who would improve their chances of winning the cup. In return we would be asking them to give up an important piece of their team but one they can afford to lose because they have other options there. Then you would get into relative values and consider issues of age, contract status etc. If the 2 can agree on a value balanced package the deal gets done. If not, not.

 

[Whileee]

Philly fans seem to dump on Buff trade suggestions a) because of cap b) they don't want to give up any young assets but I see something like that as a possibility. The cap dump part becomes hard. We have to make it worthwhile for them as well as doable. The return for us has to make the cap dump worthwhile. They are loaded with the one thing we need though, LD so .... .

Jets could retain some of Buff's salary to facilitate a trade. That would be preferable to taking on longer term salary obligations.

 

[Daximus]

Jets could retain some of Buff's salary to facilitate a trade. That would be preferable to taking on longer term salary obligations.

I think what it would come down to is the resigning of Buff. We can retain on his last year but does Philly have another $6-7 mill to keep Buff on so that the deal becomes more worth it for them.

 

[Huffer]

They are coping with the issue but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. If we move a RHD to the left we are coping also. I was originally looking at it as meaning they are able to consider moving him if we make it interesting for them. I don't think all trades need to start by both teams having a problem to solve that fits the trade. One team approaches the other. Exactly how the conversation proceeds we don't know. In this case we have an asset who would improve their chances of winning the cup. In return we would be asking them to give up an important piece of their team but one they can afford to lose because they have other options there. Then you would get into relative values and consider issues of age, contract status etc. If the 2 can agree on a value balanced package the deal gets done. If not, not.

All I am saying is that it's not a fact that there is an issue for them. We can speculate that it might be so, and maybe Depres is "adequate" on the right. But from what I have seen, and from what I read from Ducks fans, is that they are more than happy with him on the right, and with Fowler. So they "could" be coping with an issue, or there really could be no issue for them to begin with.

As for the second part, I'm not disagreeing. If they see Buff as a piece that could help them win a cup and they like the cost to acquire, he could be a really good fit. And, because Depres is left handed, maybe if they move a lefty other than him, maybe he can slide to the left. All of that is certainly possible.

I'm just saying that it's possible that the Ducks don't see a left / right imbalance at all in their lineup. A move to help with the cup I can see any team being interested in. Moving a different lefty and moving Depres over to the left makes sense too if they think it makes them better overall. But a left / right imbalance may not be a factor for them at all IMO.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The cap dump is the tricky part. Umberger seems to be on a downward trend. There is Vinny, but I'd be afraid of that one. Doesn't give them much room to resign him without dropping a few more players after next season. A deal that is beneficial to both teams but tough to accomplish.

I agree with the bold. My take is that it would require a blockbuster like the Buffalo trade to be able to balance the value and allow us to take back enough salary to make it doable. That makes it unlikely to happen.

Jets could retain some of Buff's salary to facilitate a trade. That would be preferable to taking on longer term salary obligations.

I think what it would come down to is the resigning of Buff. We can retain on his last year but does Philly have another $6-7 mill to keep Buff on so that the deal becomes more worth it for them.

That's what I was going to answer. 1 year salary retention doesn't do it.

All I am saying is that it's not a fact that there is an issue for them. We can speculate that it might be so, and maybe Depres is "adequate" on the right. But from what I have seen, and from what I read from Ducks fans, is that they are more than happy with him on the right, and with Fowler. So they "could" be coping with an issue, or there really could be no issue for them to begin with.

As for the second part, I'm not disagreeing. If they see Buff as a piece that could help them win a cup and they like the cost to acquire, he could be a really good fit. And, because Depres is left handed, maybe if they move a lefty other than him, maybe he can slide to the left. All of that is certainly possible.

I'm just saying that it's possible that the Ducks don't see a left / right imbalance at all in their lineup. A move to help with the cup I can see any team being interested in. Moving a different lefty and moving Depres over to the left makes sense too if they think it makes them better overall. But a left / right imbalance may not be a factor for them at all IMO.

I agree, particularly the bolded. I would say that it probably is an issue with them but not necessarily a large one. Maybe very small in fact.

My opinion on L/R with D is that there will always be some loss when a D switches sides. It may be very small but there must be some. When he is on the side he lines up on he has to make a backhand pass or turn his body to make a pass. That alone will = at least some small reduction in effectiveness. Therefore, all else being = it is better for a D to play his natural side. The key is the 'all else being =' part.

 

[mcpw]

Any one of:
3. Dillon Simpson (22)
4. Martin Gernat (22)
5. David Musil (22)

projects better than:
3. Ben Chiarot (24)
6. Brenden Kichton (23)
7. Julian Melchiori (23)

All are also younger than our 3 best LD prospects after Morrissey.

Kichton? Weren't we talking LD?
Maybe the ceilings of Simpson, Gernat, and Musil are still higher than Chiarot's (I really doubt it with Musil), but Chiarot is very close to reaching his 4/5D ceiling, while Simpson is far away and Gernat is extremely far away after an atrocious season. Obviously, everybody is better than Melchiori. Don't know why we qualified a third pairing AHL player with zero upside.

You can always trade him, depending on the NTC/NMC he might arrange as part of a deal. An asset under your control is better than an asset that simply walks, IMHO - if the contract is "reasonable" (and by reasonable, I mean comparable to other defensemen of his ilk), then you could still move him in a couple or three years.

Nonononono. First, he'll get a very restrictive NTC/NMC, that's obvious. Second, not even Bryan Bickell could be moved, GMs are learning. Also, if the contract is reasonable, why would we consider moving him at all?

Chicago plays this balancing game all the time, and they're still competitive. Arrange his contract so that it back dives as much as possible, and he might be a very attractive piece in a trade where the other team is looking to boost cap, but keep salary low (similar to how Myers deal was structured).

The Myers deal is illegal, as are the Keith and Hossa deals, aka the reason why Chicago can do what they're doing.

I hate the attitude that because a player isn't being actively shopped by his team he is unavailable.

There's a difference between:
a) actively shopped
b) available for the right price
c) fills a need in the lineup, would leave a big hole if traded for a player playing a different position.
Calvin de Haan is the best example for category c).

Ducks have a load of left D and a shortage on the right. They have 3 young LHD, Lindholm, Fowler, Despres and 2 older depth players in Stoner and Fistric. On the right they have Vatanen and 33 year old Bieksa plus a depth player in Manson. They have 4 very strong D prospects in their system. 3 are lefties lead by Shea Theodore. They can certainly afford to move Fowler. You said yourself that they are in a win now mode so Buff could be a difference maker for them. Because of age and contract considerations it might require an add to Buff but not too large I think but younger. Kosmo might be about right.

Fistric was bought out, he can't play NHL hockey anymore.
Despres plays on the right, and plays well with Fowler.
The Ducks are in 'win now' mode - but not in 'win this season or bust' mode. They have set themselves a window of three seasons right now. Identified a core of Perry, Getzlaf, Kesler, Silfverberg, Cogliano, Maroon, Hagelin, Bieksa, Fowler, Lindholm, Vatanen, Despres. Revolving door of depth forwards.
Last season they had Lindholm-Beauchemin, Fowler-Despres, Stoner-Vatanen. The defense worked well. They replaced Beauchemin with Bieksa (I don't like that move, but that's what they did). They have two prospects knocking on the door: Theodore (LD) and Manson (RD), plus another depth RD in Holzer. If one of them is ready, he will replace Stoner, who is the worst D in the lineup. Probably none of them should be ready to contribute. They still need to sign Hagelin. If they trade Fowler for Byfuglien, next offseason is critical due to the Lindholm (~Trouba), Vatanen, Despres, and Byfuglien extensions. It's a completely unnecessary risk to take in their situation.

Isles were similar to the Ducks with L/R balance until they got Boychuk. They are closer to balanced now but still have more left than right.

No.
Left: Leddy (top4), de Haan (top4), Hickey (4/5), Strait (AHL player, he's pretty bad), Pelech (probably needs a couple of years still)
Right: Boychuk (top4), Hamonic (top4), Pulock (5/6 next year, top4 after that), Mayfield (future 5/6).

I think that we need to be starting to look ahead a couple of years to when Toby is no longer adequate in the top pair. I am not in the dump Toby camp. Not yet, but his contract expires in 3 seasons. What will we do then? Another top 4 LHD candidate to go along with Morrissey needs to be in place soon.

a) sign a UFA when we need one
b) make a trade for a young LHD at a time where it does not lead to a logjam (Enstrom-deHaan-Chiarot-Stuart-Morrissey in 16-17?!)
c) 2016 1st round pick
It will be a position of need, but it is not right now. I'd be completely open to trading for a guy like Provorov or Zboril, they are exactly the right age for our needs. But we know that first round picks aren't traded right after being drafted.

Philly would make an ideal trade partner for Buff.
1st + and Sanheim or Morin would be ideal.
We would also need to take on a cap dump from them because they are awfully close to the cap.

Once again, a rebuilding team will not give up futures for a to-be-UFA 30yo.

Philly fans seem to dump on Buff trade suggestions a) because of cap b) they don't want to give up any young assets but I see something like that as a possibility.

Byfuglien to Flyers doesn't make sense because a) and b), but I see that as a possibility?! Hextall explicitly said he won't trade young assets for 30yo win-now players.

 

[Whileee]

Kichton? Weren't we talking LD?
Maybe the ceilings of Simpson, Gernat, and Musil are still higher than Chiarot's (I really doubt it with Musil), but Chiarot is very close to reaching his 4/5D ceiling, while Simpson is far away and Gernat is extremely far away after an atrocious season. Obviously, everybody is better than Melchiori. Don't know why we qualified a third pairing AHL player with zero upside.

Nonononono. First, he'll get a very restrictive NTC/NMC, that's obvious. Second, not even Bryan Bickell could be moved, GMs are learning. Also, if the contract is reasonable, why would we consider moving him at all?
QUOTE=YWGinYYZ;105952149]Chicago plays this balancing game all the time, and they're still competitive. Arrange his contract so that it back dives as much as possible, and he might be a very attractive piece in a trade where the other team is looking to boost cap, but keep salary low (similar to how Myers deal was structured).

The Myers deal is illegal, as are the Keith and Hossa deals, aka the reason why Chicago can do what they're doing.

There's a difference between:
a) actively shopped
b) available for the right price
c) fills a need in the lineup, would leave a big hole if traded for a player playing a different position.
Calvin de Haan is the best example for category c).

Fistric was bought out, he can't play NHL hockey anymore.
Despres plays on the right, and plays well with Fowler.
The Ducks are in 'win now' mode - but not in 'win this season or bust' mode. They have set themselves a window of three seasons right now. Identified a core of Perry, Getzlaf, Kesler, Silfverberg, Cogliano, Maroon, Hagelin, Bieksa, Fowler, Lindholm, Vatanen, Despres. Revolving door of depth forwards.
Last season they had Lindholm-Beauchemin, Fowler-Despres, Stoner-Vatanen. The defense worked well. They replaced Beauchemin with Bieksa (I don't like that move, but that's what they did). They have two prospects knocking on the door: Theodore (LD) and Manson (RD), plus another depth RD in Holzer. If one of them is ready, he will replace Stoner, who is the worst D in the lineup. Probably none of them should be ready to contribute. They still need to sign Hagelin. If they trade Fowler for Byfuglien, next offseason is critical due to the Lindholm (~Trouba), Vatanen, Despres, and Byfuglien extensions. It's a completely unnecessary risk to take in their situation.

No.
Left: Leddy (top4), de Haan (top4), Hickey (4/5), Strait (AHL player, he's pretty bad), Pelech (probably needs a couple of years still)
Right: Boychuk (top4), Hamonic (top4), Pulock (5/6 next year, top4 after that), Mayfield (future 5/6).

a) sign a UFA when we need one
b) make a trade for a young LHD at a time where it does not lead to a logjam (Enstrom-deHaan-Chiarot-Stuart-Morrissey in 16-17?!)
c) 2016 1st round pick
It will be a position of need, but it is not right now. I'd be completely open to trading for a guy like Provorov or Zboril, they are exactly the right age for our needs. But we know that first round picks aren't traded right after being drafted.

Once again, a rebuilding team will not give up futures for a to-be-UFA 30yo.

Byfuglien to Flyers doesn't make sense because a) and b), but I see that as a possibility?! Hextall explicitly said he won't trade young assets for 30yo win-now players.

[/QUOTE]

As always, the wild card with the Flyers is their owner Ed Snider. He's an older fellow, who is much more in the "win now" mode than the "draft and develop".

http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/eye-on-hockey/25122499/flyers-owner-ed-snider-on-being-patient-for-a-winner-bleep-that

"You don't say when you've got Giroux, and you've got Voracek, and you've got Mason and you've got the kind of pieces like Simmons that we have, that, 'Hey, you've got to be patient, we might make the playoffs in 2 or 3 years,' " he said. "[Bleep] that."

"We've got to make sure our message gets through properly. Patience is great with the kids. But patience isn't great with the team we have on the ice.”

 

[YWGinYYZ]

The Myers deal is illegal, as are the Keith and Hossa deals, aka the reason why Chicago can do what they're doing.

Of course: it was structured under the old CBA - that's why I said "similarly". You can still back-dive a contract, just not as radically. Might make a longer term contract slightly more palatable.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Kichton? Weren't we talking LD?
Maybe the ceilings of Simpson, Gernat, and Musil are still higher than Chiarot's (I really doubt it with Musil), but Chiarot is very close to reaching his 4/5D ceiling, while Simpson is far away and Gernat is extremely far away after an atrocious season. Obviously, everybody is better than Melchiori. Don't know why we qualified a third pairing AHL player with zero upside.

Nonononono. First, he'll get a very restrictive NTC/NMC, that's obvious. Second, not even Bryan Bickell could be moved, GMs are learning. Also, if the contract is reasonable, why would we consider moving him at all?

Agree with the bolded. If you don't like the contract when you sign it you shouldn't sign it. Signing it with the thought that when it becomes unattractive to us in 2-3 years it will somehow be attractive to somebody else is just completely wrong.

The Myers deal is illegal, as are the Keith and Hossa deals, aka the reason why Chicago can do what they're doing.

There's a difference between:
a) actively shopped
b) available for the right price
c) fills a need in the lineup, would leave a big hole if traded for a player playing a different position.
Calvin de Haan is the best example for category c).

Agree with all but the last line. It may be correct but is not certain. I said elsewhere that I think there was an opportunity with the Isles. That has closed up with a series of moves they made. Acquiring Leddy and Boychuk changed their picture and so did the Edmonton trade at the draft. If there is any of that opportunity left it is a long shot.

Fistric was bought out, he can't play NHL hockey anymore.
Despres plays on the right, and plays well with Fowler.
The Ducks are in 'win now' mode - but not in 'win this season or bust' mode. They have set themselves a window of three seasons right now. Identified a core of Perry, Getzlaf, Kesler, Silfverberg, Cogliano, Maroon, Hagelin, Bieksa, Fowler, Lindholm, Vatanen, Despres. Revolving door of depth forwards.
Last season they had Lindholm-Beauchemin, Fowler-Despres, Stoner-Vatanen. The defense worked well. They replaced Beauchemin with Bieksa (I don't like that move, but that's what they did). They have two prospects knocking on the door: Theodore (LD) and Manson (RD), plus another depth RD in Holzer. If one of them is ready, he will replace Stoner, who is the worst D in the lineup. Probably none of them should be ready to contribute. They still need to sign Hagelin. If they trade Fowler for Byfuglien, next offseason is critical due to the Lindholm (~Trouba), Vatanen, Despres, and Byfuglien extensions. It's a completely unnecessary risk to take in their situation.

The fact they have moved Depres to the right side doesn't suddenly make him right handed. He is still a LD but playing on the right. IIRC they have 2 other D prospects near the top of their list, both lefties.

The Ducks have a 3 year window and Buff has probably got 3 more good years in him.

I can't comment on any cap difficulties they may have in a year or 2. Right now they have plenty of cap space.

They have a plan. If we make them an offer that they don't think will improve on their plan they won't do it. If they think it will improve on their plan they will do it. If all the GMs pre-qualified all prospective moves like that they would never pick up the phone. There is a prospective deal there. Talk to the other team and see if something can be worked out.

What you are saying ends up coming down to Buff is untradeable. Nobody wants him who can afford him and nobody can afford him who wants him. But if he was a UFA right now there would be bidders willing to pay a lot. The other side of your point seems to be that there are no 2LDs available anywhere at any price not even prospects. I just don't buy that. It could turn out that there are no good deals to be made but there certainly are not if you start by convincing yourself that it can't be done.

No.
Left: Leddy (top4), de Haan (top4), Hickey (4/5), Strait (AHL player, he's pretty bad), Pelech (probably needs a couple of years still)
Right: Boychuk (top4), Hamonic (top4), Pulock (5/6 next year, top4 after that), Mayfield (future 5/6).

At the time I was referring to the Isles did not have Leddy or Boychuk. They did have Donovan and Reinhart. On the right they had Hamonic and that's about all.

a) sign a UFA when we need one
b) make a trade for a young LHD at a time where it does not lead to a logjam (Enstrom-deHaan-Chiarot-Stuart-Morrissey in 16-17?!)
c) 2016 1st round pick
It will be a position of need, but it is not right now. I'd be completely open to trading for a guy like Provorov or Zboril, they are exactly the right age for our needs. But we know that first round picks aren't traded right after being drafted.

a)Signing a top pair D UFA is extremely difficult. They very rarely are available and when they are they are very expensive. I really don't see that as an option.
b)Logjam? Enstrom-de Haan-Morrissey-Chiarot. Trade Stuart. Really if we get a de Haan, trade Stuart. At worst how many years does a guy who plays the way he does have left? There is nothing close to a logjam here.
c)There were a lot of good D available this year. If we were going to draft a replacement this was the year to do it. BPA. That means you draft a player you don't need because he is good. Now that you have him you have to trade him for the player that you do need. '16 first? Maybe. Will a good one be available when we draft 20th? Will he be BPA? How long will it be before he is ready for 1st pair minutes?

I agree with trading for a replacement. One of this year's would be a candidate but it will cost us one of our prized early picks. Maybe in a year or two.

Once again, a rebuilding team will not give up futures for a to-be-UFA 30yo.

Byfuglien to Flyers doesn't make sense because a) and b), but I see that as a possibility?! Hextall explicitly said he won't trade young assets for 30yo win-now players.

Yup and I have stated it would be very difficult to the point of being unlikely, not impossible. We would have to take back salary on one hand and also include something good and young. That means we would have to get more back. It would have to turn into a blockbuster trade to be able to balance it all out and make it worthwhile for both teams. Someone else said something like it could be a trade that works for both sides but probably doesn't happen because it is just too difficult to get it done. Actually he said it with fewer words but I am too lazy to go back and find it to quote.

 

[mcpw]

What you are saying ends up coming down to Buff is untradeable. Nobody wants him who can afford him and nobody can afford him who wants him.

It's funny to write that, but we're actually getting close. It's late in the offseason. Teams have filled their needs. Cody Franson is still out there.

I've identified some teams who would have interest in Byfuglien:
MTL - went and got Petry instead. Subban/Petry - no more need.
DET - were vocal about adding another top4 RHD. However, they're still half contending with their Datsyuk-Zetterberg core and half rebuilding for the time after that. In that case, the right strategy is to go for a UFA, and they did that with Green.
SJS - same situation as DET, but with Paul Martin iso Green.
ANA - Beauchemin replacement. Went with the cheaper Bieksa instead. I don't like that move for them, and several Ducks fans don't, but it is what it is.
TBL - hole at 2RD, filled by Coburn at the deadline.
CBJ - good candidate with a hole at top4 RD, but the Saad trade killed their cap. Still don't know how they want to survive next offseason if they make the playoffs. Jenner+Murray+Savard...
PIT - see CBJ, Kessel trade, neither cap space nor assets left.

Then there are other teams who I don't see trading for Byfuglien:
CGY, CAR, NJD, TOR, ARI, PHI - rebuilding, not giving up futures for Byfuglien.
CHI - no cap space
NYI - Boychuk, Hamonic, Pulock
NSH - Weber, Ellis, Jones
WSH - Carlson, Niskanen; Bowey in the pipeline
BUF - Bogosian, Ristolainen, Pysyk; glaring holes at LD, Byfuglien+Kane lol
COL - E.Johnson, Barrie, Beauchemin; same division
MIN - Brodin, Spurgeon, Dumba; same division

Now who's left?
EDM - could use him; will they pay the right price for a "rental"? NTC?
LAK - Voynov? Kopitar+Lucic+Byfuglien UFA in the same offseason? Do they have any assets left after trading for Sekera and Lucic?
OTT - Karlsson, Ceci; maybe?
BOS - what are they doing anyway
VAN - see BOS
DAL - questionable, same division
STL - ??? (same division)
FLA - ???
NYR - had them with CHI under 'no cap space', but maybe maybe maybe if they're really serious something around Boyle+ could work.

So, as you can see, I had 7 candidates. Then these candidates went and got other options. Now I don't see what's left.
At that point I expect to enter next season with an extended Ladd and a pending UFA Byfuglien. 'Expect' as in 'I believe it's most likely'.

 

[garret9]

Buff to Buffalo for Evander Kane + McCabe

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Kichton? Weren't we talking LD?

Yeah, my bad on that. For years Kichton was listed as being left on pretty much every site. It's still that way on many.

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/brenden_kichton/

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=116147

After the lengthy conversation I had about this last year, that should have sunk in.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Ducks have a load of left D and a shortage on the right. They have 3 young LHD, Lindholm, Fowler, Despres and 2 older depth players in Stoner and Fistric. On the right they have Vatanen and 33 year old Bieksa plus a depth player in Manson. They have 4 very strong D prospects in their system. 3 are lefties lead by Shea Theodore. They can certainly afford to move Fowler. You said yourself that they are in a win now mode so Buff could be a difference maker for them. Because of age and contract considerations it might require an add to Buff but not too large I think but younger. Kosmo might be about right.

Edit: To back up a bit, you wanted to prove the point that our need for an upgrade at LHD is being overstated. Note that I agreed with that point right from the start. It is not a desperate, crying hole in our lineup. Chiarot, Citsome (if healthy) and even Stuart are not that bad and a RHD could move over. Plus we have Morrissey. I think that we need to be starting to look ahead a couple of years to when Toby is no longer adequate in the top pair. I am not in the dump Toby camp. Not yet, but his contract expires in 3 seasons. What will we do then? Another top 4 LHD candidate to go along with Morrissey needs to be in place soon.

As you mention the Ducks are very solid on the left side on the roster & in their prospect pool:

Roster:

Cam Fowler (23) 2010-012 ($4.0 Million UFA in 2018) Windsor, Ontario
Hampus Lidholm (21) 2012-006 (0.9 Million RFA in 2016) Helsingborg, Sweden
Simon Dupres (24) 2009-030 (0.9 Million RFA in 2016) Laval, Quebec
Clayton Stoner (30) 2004-079 (3.2 Million UFA in 2018) Port McNeill, B.C.

Prospects:

Shea Theodore (20) 2013-026 (Entry Level RFA in 2018) Aldergrove, B.C
Marcus Pettersson (19) 2014-038 (Entry Level RFA in 2018) Skelleftea, Sweden
Jacob Larsson (18) 2015-017 (unsigned) Ljungby, Sweden

 

[KingBogo]

It's funny to write that, but we're actually getting close. It's late in the offseason. Teams have filled their needs. Cody Franson is still out there.

I've identified some teams who would have interest in Byfuglien:
MTL - went and got Petry instead. Subban/Petry - no more need.
DET - were vocal about adding another top4 RHD. However, they're still half contending with their Datsyuk-Zetterberg core and half rebuilding for the time after that. In that case, the right strategy is to go for a UFA, and they did that with Green.
SJS - same situation as DET, but with Paul Martin iso Green.
ANA - Beauchemin replacement. Went with the cheaper Bieksa instead. I don't like that move for them, and several Ducks fans don't, but it is what it is.
TBL - hole at 2RD, filled by Coburn at the deadline.
CBJ - good candidate with a hole at top4 RD, but the Saad trade killed their cap. Still don't know how they want to survive next offseason if they make the playoffs. Jenner+Murray+Savard...
PIT - see CBJ, Kessel trade, neither cap space nor assets left.

Then there are other teams who I don't see trading for Byfuglien:
CGY, CAR, NJD, TOR, ARI, PHI - rebuilding, not giving up futures for Byfuglien.
CHI - no cap space
NYI - Boychuk, Hamonic, Pulock
NSH - Weber, Ellis, Jones
WSH - Carlson, Niskanen; Bowey in the pipeline
BUF - Bogosian, Ristolainen, Pysyk; glaring holes at LD, Byfuglien+Kane lol
COL - E.Johnson, Barrie, Beauchemin; same division
MIN - Brodin, Spurgeon, Dumba; same division

Now who's left?
EDM - could use him; will they pay the right price for a "rental"? NTC?
LAK - Voynov? Kopitar+Lucic+Byfuglien UFA in the same offseason? Do they have any assets left after trading for Sekera and Lucic?
OTT - Karlsson, Ceci; maybe?
BOS - what are they doing anyway
VAN - see BOS
DAL - questionable, same division
STL - ??? (same division)
FLA - ???
NYR - had them with CHI under 'no cap space', but maybe maybe maybe if they're really serious something around Boyle+ could work.

So, as you can see, I had 7 candidates. Then these candidates went and got other options. Now I don't see what's left.
At that point I expect to enter next season with an extended Ladd and a pending UFA Byfuglien. 'Expect' as in 'I believe it's most likely'.

Nice breakdown MC. Thanks for analyzing team needs. I've maintained all along that the return for Buff will be considerably less then people have hoped. Agreed with Chevy not getting something done when the window was open (pre draft and UFA season) has allowed the market to shrink to almost nothing. I'm hoping on something with Boston or better yet somehow Chevy gets Buff to agree to a 3 year $24 M extension. But likely we end up going down the Frolik path, but hopefully with a better outcome.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It's funny to write that, but we're actually getting close. It's late in the offseason. Teams have filled their needs. Cody Franson is still out there.

I've identified some teams who would have interest in Byfuglien:
MTL - went and got Petry instead. Subban/Petry - no more need.
DET - were vocal about adding another top4 RHD. However, they're still half contending with their Datsyuk-Zetterberg core and half rebuilding for the time after that. In that case, the right strategy is to go for a UFA, and they did that with Green.
SJS - same situation as DET, but with Paul Martin iso Green.
ANA - Beauchemin replacement. Went with the cheaper Bieksa instead. I don't like that move for them, and several Ducks fans don't, but it is what it is.
TBL - hole at 2RD, filled by Coburn at the deadline.
CBJ - good candidate with a hole at top4 RD, but the Saad trade killed their cap. Still don't know how they want to survive next offseason if they make the playoffs. Jenner+Murray+Savard...
PIT - see CBJ, Kessel trade, neither cap space nor assets left.

Then there are other teams who I don't see trading for Byfuglien:
CGY, CAR, NJD, TOR, ARI, PHI - rebuilding, not giving up futures for Byfuglien.
CHI - no cap space
NYI - Boychuk, Hamonic, Pulock
NSH - Weber, Ellis, Jones
WSH - Carlson, Niskanen; Bowey in the pipeline
BUF - Bogosian, Ristolainen, Pysyk; glaring holes at LD, Byfuglien+Kane lol
COL - E.Johnson, Barrie, Beauchemin; same division
MIN - Brodin, Spurgeon, Dumba; same division

Now who's left?
EDM - could use him; will they pay the right price for a "rental"? NTC?
LAK - Voynov? Kopitar+Lucic+Byfuglien UFA in the same offseason? Do they have any assets left after trading for Sekera and Lucic?
OTT - Karlsson, Ceci; maybe?
BOS - what are they doing anyway
VAN - see BOS
DAL - questionable, same division
STL - ??? (same division)
FLA - ???
NYR - had them with CHI under 'no cap space', but maybe maybe maybe if they're really serious something around Boyle+ could work.

So, as you can see, I had 7 candidates. Then these candidates went and got other options. Now I don't see what's left.
At that point I expect to enter next season with an extended Ladd and a pending UFA Byfuglien. 'Expect' as in 'I believe it's most likely'.

Well .... that's better.
Good summary although I don't like the results.
It matches to some extent my own feelings. I thought it was important that Chevy have felt out both Ladd and Buff early because some decisions needed to have been made before the extension window opened July 1. I think Buff needed to be traded much earlier. As time passes both the extension and the trade become less likely. I moved through expecting Ladd extended and Buff traded to both to be extended, to Ladd extended Buff pending to now fearing both pending.

The one thing I question with your assessment is that it doesn't allow for trying harder. There MAY be several teams that you have dismissed that we could deal with if we are flexible but those kinds of deals are bigger, harder to do and consequently much less likely to happen. I would be willing to try and take back salary fro a cap strapped team or to include a good young piece to a team that doesn't want to trade their youth for our age. That kind of thing obviously has to be limited though.

I really don't want to lose both next July 1 and I really don't want to overpay both. If all else fails I would rather overpay Ladd to keep at least 1. I'm not sure what would be the max I would go for him. Match Kesler's deal? 6x7? That is starting to sound like too much but Ladd might get that as a UFA.