Post-Game Talk: Leafs/Sens | Saturday, February 23 | No one injured. Night a success.

SilverSeven

Registered User
Apr 16, 2007
21,503
1
Ottawa, Ontario
Ignoring useful performance metrics just because of some hatred for advanced stats is pointless. I'm not claiming that corsi is the end-all of player evaluation. But you can't deny that "shots attempted minus shots attempted against" while a player is on the ice is a useful metric for judging a) puck possession, and b) when combined with other stats, offensive/defensive impact.

And in this case, despite Da Costa starting in the offensive zone nearly twice as much as Smith, and facing much weaker opposition, they both register almost identical shots for minus shots against. When you look at Da Costa's ozone start % and quality of competition, and consider that he SHOULD have way more shots for than shots against, the fact that he's barely outperforming Smith and Zibanejad tells you that you're wasting those golden offensive opportunities by putting him out there instead of one of the other centers. In fact, by spoonfeeding him all of those soft ozone starts, you're actually hurting Smith/Turris/Zibanejad's ability, since those opportunities are being concentrated for Da Costa, instead of being spread out among the other centers. Simply put, Da Costa isn't a good puck possession player right now, while Zibanejad and Smith are. In a Paul Maclean system, where your primary concern with centers is puck possession ability and ability to control the play, SDC doesn't help the team nearly as much as the other centers, and it's no surprise why he got sent down.

You'll see the same thing with Condra and Zibanejad if you look at their underlying stats too, and the 3 of them are a big reason that we're having the success that we are.

Not all shots are created equal. DaCosta creates high quality scoring chances.
 

burf

Registered User
Mar 27, 2012
719
134
Not all shots are created equal. DaCosta creates high quality scoring chances.

I never claimed Da Costa didn't create good scoring chances, just that the underlying numbers show that his puck possession game is nowhere near as good as Smith's. And since Maclean seems to value puck possession and the ability to gain the zone a great deal, Smith is obviously the more valuable player to him for his system. Especially when you consider that he's generating more shots while playing the toughest minutes, while Da Costa is playing against the softest opposition.

However, on the topic of quality scoring chances, Smith's "team on ice shooting %" is low due to some bad luck (3.2%), but I wouldn't expect it to go much over 5-8, as a reflection of the kind of chances he tends to create given his limited playmaking ability.

(Meanwhile, Da Costa's team on ice sh% is 0, which is likely just a result of bad luck)


e: And as much as everyone here seems to hate corsi, it's a really simple stat. Would anyone here hate the term as much if it was called "on ice shot differential"? Because that's all it is - just total attempted shots for minus attempted shots against. It's not a magic bullet for determining how good a player is, and it won't tell you who will score the most points. It's simply an individual stat that's very useful for measuring puck possession, which, for a team like Ottawa, is obviously relevant, given that's what the entire team is built around. I'd be surprised as hell if the coaching staff wasn't using it and other advanced metrics.

And the context I used it in - a player taking a majority of defensive zone draws having an equal shot differential to player who starts 3/4 of his shifts in the offensive zone - it's clearly an appropriate tool for determining which one of them is playing better in the system.
 
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Milan the God*

Guest
Way off topic with this, but I don't wanna make a new thread.

What's a website where I can see how many ES and PP goals a player has been on against. And other advanced statistics. Can't find it on NHL.com
 

aragorn

Do The Right Thing
Aug 8, 2004
28,573
9,085
Not all shots are created equal. DaCosta creates high quality scoring chances.

But he isn't good enough defensively, strong enough or big enough to prevent goals against. He has to get much stronger to be able to play against & defend against NHL players.
 

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