Confirmed with Link: Leafs Promote Dave Morrison & Troy Bodie, Hire Wes Clark as Assistant Dir. Of Player Personnel

Kiwi

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17th. But, the things people seem to bash Hunter on is the 2nd round and later, where he did well above average in his short stint here. With, the main attacks being on Rasanen, Greenway and a Middleton. As pointed out, multiple times, if you hit on 40% of your second round picks, you are drafting better than most of the league. I'd also point out that we did not have a full complement of picks all year, and they lined up differently. For example, we had 24, and eventually re-acquired our own 2nd round in a series of trades down (originally lost in the Bernier deal). Grundstrom if he's a hit, was on a Washington 2nd rounder I'm pretty sure.

I think Hunter has done OK and I think his 2nd round picks look pretty good by and large with Dermott, Korshkov, Grundstrom

What I had issue with was the amount of guys we selected in the 3rd round on that looked bad at the time and have tracked poorly from almost the get go

We almost seemed to outsmart ourselves at times and I think you can say that about some of Dubas picks in the mid to late rounds this year as well
 
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Walshy7

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Sure, But the fact remains far the only non top 10 Leafs pick from the last few drafts to play an nhL game is Dermott. Yeah maybe Grundstrom makes it, but he’s still got a ways to go. I’d say at BEST so far the Leafs are fairing at least average compared to other NHL teams at the last three draft cycles.

And I do agree that it’s fair to say that at best scouting is essentially just educated guesswork (and hindsight does make it very easy to be critical of selections), yet that then begs the question how much of an actual advantage does having “the best scout” actually give a team

Well put this is what I was trying to say, but I just come off as a hunter hater. I don’t hate him but he isn’t anything more than your average level scout he isn’t some super scout
 
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93LEAFS

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Sure, But the fact remains far the only non top 10 Leafs pick from the last few drafts to play an nhL game is Dermott. Yeah maybe Grundstrom makes it, but he’s still got a ways to go. I’d say at BEST so far the Leafs are fairing at least average compared to other NHL teams at the last three draft cycles.

And I do agree that it’s fair to say that at best scouting is essentially just educated guesswork (and hindsight does make it very easy to be critical of selections), yet that then begs the question how much of an actual advantage does having “the best scout” actually give a team
I'd say having the best scouting team would give you a significant advantage, as it would tend to give you more assets to cash in on. Anaheim has been a solid team for awhile on the back of their drafting. Nashville has built a very strong stable. In general, its the lifeblood of a team. Now, if you have someone who has no idea on how to manage those assets you are in trouble.

I'd think Grundstrom should be able to carve out a top 9 NHL career, you are right in that he isn't a lock yet, but that would be a success for a pick in that range, and if Dermott is a top 4 D man, that is great drafting for two picks between 30 and 60. I have no idea on what Korshkov will be and am not optimistic. While I'm not optimistic on Rasanen, he did pass the basic test for CHL blueliners (he got above .5ppg in their draft year) and is still younger than both Durzi and Hollowell. I'd say he's also a long shot, but only 20% of those picks turn out to be something worthwhile. Some are optimistic on Bracco, but he feels like a guy who will be in the NLA in 4 years time to me, although, as with all things I'm negative with the Leafs, I'd love to be proven wrong, because I care more about this team winning than being right on a message board under a pseudonym.
 

93LEAFS

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I think Hunter has done OK and I think his 2nd round picks look pretty good by and large with Dermott, Korshkov, Grundstrom

What I had issue with was the amount of guys we selected in the 3rd round on that looked bad at the time and have tracked poorly from almost the get go

We almost seemed to outsmart ourselves at times and I think you can say that about some of Dubas picks in the mid to late rounds this year as well
Fair criticism. I'm still optimistic on Woll as far as goalies go. There still voodoo, but I thought it was a good pick, that still holds up today.
 

RoadWarrior

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I think Hunter has done OK and I think his 2nd round picks look pretty good by and large with Dermott, Korshkov, Grundstrom

What I had issue with was the amount of guys we selected in the 3rd round on that looked bad at the time and have tracked poorly from almost the get go

We almost seemed to outsmart ourselves at times and I think you can say that about some of Dubas picks in the mid to late rounds this year as well

There was a method to the Hunter madness. Statistically speaking if you look at the history of the draft players who are large behemoths have a higher percentage chance of becoming NHL regulars than average size players regardless of production.

The question is whether that advantage for larger players is based on actual effectiveness or bias from management.

Dubas concluded it was mostly bias and thus started targeting overage players who have had an extra year of evaluation regardless of size. Most other current GM's around the league are trending towards Dubas line of thinking.
 

Kiwi

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Fair criticism. I'm still optimistic on Woll as far as goalies go. There still voodoo, but I thought it was a good pick, that still holds up today.

Yeah I don't mind him either, he's still a bit of a long shot but at least he's still a shot

I still scratch my head about those huge non producing D'men we seemed to fall in love with in the mid to late rounds, I think the overager thing is pretty dicey as well and that's both scouting regimes
 

Walshy7

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There was a method to the Hunter madness. Statistically speaking if you look at the history of the draft players who are large behemoths have a higher percentage chance of becoming NHL regulars than average size players regardless of production.

The question is whether that advantage for larger players is based on actual effectiveness or bias from management.

Dubas concluded it was mostly bias and thus started targeting overage players who have had an extra year of evaluation regardless of size. Most other current GM's around the league are trending towards Dubas line of thinking.

Fedor gordeev has less points in his ohl career than Sean durzi has scored this season gone and durzi only played 40 games this season. Filip Kral 2 less points in one season than gordeev entire career.

Keaton Middleton has half the points of durzi in double the games.

Points aren’t a great way to evaluate dmen, but even the best nhl shutdown d could score in the chl. The fridges are all plugs except maybe rasanen, and gordeev has some redeeming qualities. They were bad picks
 
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Kiwi

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There was a method to the Hunter madness. Statistically speaking if you look at the history of the draft players who are large behemoths have a higher percentage chance of becoming NHL regulars than average size players regardless of production.

The question is whether that advantage for larger players is based on actual effectiveness or bias from management.

Dubas concluded it was mostly bias and thus started targeting overage players who have had an extra year of evaluation regardless of size. Most other current GM's around the league are trending towards Dubas line of thinking.

I don't think that would hold up as well if you looked at a more recent sample, the league is trending towards speed and those bigger guys are less valuable unless the can skate and move the puck
 

93LEAFS

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Fedor gordeev has less points in his ohl career than Sean durzi has scored this season gone and durzi only played 40 games this season. Filip Kral 2 less points in one season than gordeev entire career.

Keaton Middleton has half the points of durzi in double the games.

Points aren’t a great way to evaluate dmen, but even the best nhl shutdown d could score in the chl. The fridges are all plugs except maybe rasanen, and gordeev has some redeeming qualities. They were bad picks
Greenway absolutely had skills. His career seems to have fallen apart due to off-ice issues.
 

ITM

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Keith acton is a perfect comparison. I thought the exact same thing. To survive all those changes in personnel above them is unusual. Always though acton must have something incriminating on those guys or something.

Not wishing the man unemployment, I just can't fathom how he continues to move forward while not mining talent, year over year...over year.
 
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93LEAFS

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Plausible deniability I guess?
I understand how he survived the first scouting purge, and just got a cushy gig running pro-scouting, which is just a job that has very limited responsibilities. All the big hitters and key evaluators will be on the amateur side. GM's don't really listen to the pro-scouts, as they can easily get the tape to evaluate NHLers they are interested in, and all coaches do pre-scouting themselves through video.

Dave is a really friendly guy, but going from head of amateur scouting to head of pro scouting to head of player personnel (which has been our head scout under Hunter) within the same organization, is like watching someone come back from the dead.
 

Discordia

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Dubas has not started off very well. I think he had a pretty poor draft and his staff hirings/firings and restructuring are cause for concern.
 

Leafs at Knight

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Dubas has not started off very well. I think he had a pretty poor draft and his staff hirings/firings and restructuring are cause for concern.
Can you go back to not posting on this site again or at least not on our board. I thought you were deleting your account if the Leafs won a playoff game this year
 
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Obliviate

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No.

But, if you think Dave Morrison was promoted on merit, considering we demoted him 3 years ago, and don't think somethings up? Well......... Either Dubas is going to be extremely hands on running the scouting department, or he'll let Wes run it, with Morrison in a supervisory role. I'm pretty sure the role Wes Clark got, doesn't exist with any other NHL team. Now, different teams have different labels for similar jobs. But, something is up with promoting Morrison back up to a significant position.
If Morrison has no value isn't it easier to release him altogether? The demotion you speak of seems like a case of wanting to capitalize on a situation. Guys are cut loose constantly, how does perservere?
 

93LEAFS

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To be fair to Morrison lets actually analyze his draft history.

In the one draft, he didn't have Burke or Nonis to answer (who many claim led him astray), which is possible. He took Luke Schenn at 5, but in fairness to him, he also took Anton Stralman in the 7th. If Stralman was a 5th overall pick and had his career, it'd be a solid single. Outside of that, nothing of significance happened. Under Burke and Nonis, he could hit on top 10 picks, with Kadri, Rielly, and Nylander. Past that, it was an unmitigated disaster for the most part. Outside of having some Bergman picks bail him out (Johansson, Komarov, and Gunnarson), he had one very good hit with Connor Brown in the 6th. But, in most cases, whenever he wasn't picking in the top 10, it was a mess. Biggs, Percy, and Gauthier all in the 20 to 30 range. Matt Finn, Jesse Blacker, Brad Ross, Kenny Ryan, and Jimmy Hayes in the 2nd. Now, I don't expect guys to hit on every pick. But, he produced one guy who is a legitimate NHLer in the 20-60 range, and at his best is a 3rd liner, who is a journeyman. Now, do I think Burke set a mandate that likely led to us drafting girt guys like Biggs, Brad Ross, and Kenny Ryan? Absolutely. But, he also missed on non-grit picks in that range, in Finn, Blacker, Percy, and Gauthier (he's sort of middle ground). The only significant hits he had were from the European side (but he still deserves credit). The two best NA players drafted outside the top 10 is Connor Brown, the next best Matt Frattin, Jimmy Hayes and Josh Leivo. Another thing is, look at how Anaheim drafted when Burke was there, they had similar issues.

The main takeaway is, while Burke may be at fault, but arguably the biggest miss on the resume is probably drafting a guy who turned into a bottom pairing defender 5th overall, which happened pre-Burke. Although Biggs busted in impressive fashion I'd say the odds of a player outright busting in the 20s, is probably significantly higher than not getting at least a top 9 forward, top 4 d or starting goalie in the top 5.

Hopefully, for our sake, the issues with the drafts from 2007 until 2014, were mandate issues or the incompetence of scouts below him.

To put it in perspective, in Hunter's 3-year reign, we have probably drafted a better player than Morrison did in 20-40 range over around 10. Although, if you want, you can make an argument Morrison was still our Director of Amateur Scouting for the 2015 draft, as the scouting purge didn't officially happen until July of 2015. Although, I doubt his opinion meant much at that draft, as Mark and Hofford were clearly the guys running the draft.

So, as a fan, let's hope that Morrison's issues were more mandate based and that he actually had a say in the 2015 draft. But, it is pretty troubling that in 3 drafts, having a total of 4 picks between 20-60, he drafted a player better than Morrison did in 8. You can explain away some of that mess by the fact Burke and Leafs management constantly traded 2nd round picks, which gave him fewer bullets. Now, Hunter never had a late-round pick like Stralman and to a lesser extent Brown or even Johansson (but these guys could take awhile to emerge). Also, keep in mind, from 2000 to 2004 (prior to Morrison even being on the staff), we did very well in the 20-60 range. Drafting a very good player in Steen, a guy who got 1000 NHL games (even if he's a 4th liner for a bunch of them) in Stajan, and Brad Boyes (a solid but not spectacular player who was a journeyman), in 6 picks. In the time between Morrison actually being on the staff but not being the Director of Scouting, we took Tuukka Rask in the 20-60 range. We also took Tlutsy at 13.
 
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DarkKnight

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One other angle with Morrison, it doesn't suggest some big changes in direction or philosophy. Have to admit, it's a head scratcher move, his track record isn't good at all imho. This move in isolation, gets a Dubas thumbs down from me.
 

Morbo

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He was in charge of 3 drafts. And, he drafted better than anyone else for the Leafs in forever. Even turning the Leafs scouting staff into an average drafting team with our history was an accomplishment.

People are dramatically over exaggerating how many guys gets ELC's (especially out of juniors). Also, ignoring, it was Dubas who decided not to give them ELC's (it may have been different with Lou or Hunter), and not looking at the average return for each pick.

What's the standard we now hold for Dubas for this draft? Should we be expecting at least two bonafide NHLers from Sandin, Durzi, SDA, Stotts, Hollowell, etc?

bottom line is, for one, we can't seem to draft a centre or goalie for some reason, and we still aren't getting our share of top talent in the draft past the 1st round vs. other teams, average return from each pick or not. Hunter did nothing to change this that I can see in his drafts. The other thing is, Hunter was subject to high expectations because of his reputation as a scout and evaluator, which was considerable. To say he did an average job here is fairly lukewarm praise for such an individual.

I don't mind changing the scouts until we get it right. I'm not sure average is what we should be shooting for here anyway. We're going to need some more production here soon with the team about to become more topheavy(Tavares or not).

I don't know if Wes Clark will do a better job or not, but I do know that we need to do better than we have been, and that includes Hunter's tenure. The Leafs need to become an above-average drafting organization -- for the first time ever, really -- with their picks in the lower range of each round for the forseeable future.
 

Walshy7

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Agreed

I'd love to get a run down on the thinking behind what we we're doing

It's just a pity we never really hear about that sort of stuff

They were thinking let’s hope we can find a giant d it’s great if it could pay off but we put 6 picks into those giants 3 are gone already one just went to the khl (I like rasanen he has some sembelence of skill) 1 has personal issues and has dropped behind the development curve and the last one is doing ok at best. Smaller skill players fail all the same but these guys seemed mostly destined to fail overall
 
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