Line Combos: Leafs lineup 2016-2017

[LargusMeans]

Wow, its amazing how many of you make Michalek, Greening and Lupul just disappear. Michalek has a NTC that he waived to come to TO, he may have a chance of being traded at the deadline but doubtful that he moves before then. Greening is perhaps more moveable, but may end up being played a lot to allow the team to move him for prospects/picks at the deadline. Now Lupul, he's not going to be Robidas'd, it insane to think that, if he wants to play hockey, the Leafs will either have to a) buy him out (a cap hit of 1.5m, 3.0m, 1.5m, 1.5m for the next 4 years) or b) waive him and hope (doubtful) then send him to the Marlies (a cap hit of 4.3m for 2 years) c) play him. On top of that, Holland, Leivo, S.Carrick, B.Smith, Harrington, Corrado, C.Carrick, Marincin and Percy are all RFAs and waiver eligible. C.Carrick definitely gets signed and stays up, so does Marincin unless a blockbuster trade happens to get a new top defender. Harrington, Percy, Corrado will all probably be grabbed if waived? So their definitely trade bait. S.Carrick and B.Smith probably slide through to the Marlies. Leivo would absolutely be claimed, so he either is on the team or traded. So without trades here's what I think the Leafs line up as in October.

JVR - Kadri - Nylander
Komorov - Matthews - Michalek
Lupul - Bozak - Marner
Greening - Laich - Hyman
Froese/Sosh

Reilly - Hunwick
Gardner - Zaitsev
C.Carrick - Marincin
Harrington

Bernier - UFA/trade backup

That probably doesn't get us into the playoffs next year. Add Stammer, trade Bozak, Percy, Leivo, Corrado, bring in a top pairing D and a goalie, begins to look more realistic.

Lupul's value just went through the roof for the Leafs now, if he plays 24 games, can be one of the must expose vets with 40/70+ games. Will guess Bozak the other exposed. Re-signing Marincin now a must, 5 games and he will qualify too. Byron Froese only need 14 games to qualify, but would need to get extended this summer. This definitely changes the way the team lines up.

 

[Byron Bitz]

I don't get people who want to sign Cam Ward. And the people who have him starting in front of Bernier

Cam Ward is trash. If you think Bernier is bad, just wait till you see Ward. He hasn't been good in a long time.

Ward had .909 sv pct last season. Bernier had .908 and that's including his atrocious start where he was like .850.

Cam Ward in not good.

His recent struggles will mean we can get him cheap on a short term deal. He was playing on a bad team last year and with a change of scenery could bounce back. Low risk high reward.

 

[LargusMeans]

His recent struggles will mean we can get him cheap on a short term deal. He was playing on a bad team last year and with a change of scenery could bounce back. Low risk high reward.

Ed Belfour, 32 yrs old, previous two seasons with Dallas 0.905 and 0.895 save%, think he did ok for the Leafs when he came in. If you can sign Ward for 2 yrs at around 3m, great deal.

 

[JonnyMacAwesome]

Ed Belfour, 32 yrs old, previous two seasons with Dallas 0.905 and 0.895 save%, think he did ok for the Leafs when he came in. If you can sign Ward for 2 yrs at around 3m, great deal.

Massive difference in talent there. Those 2 shouldn't even be in the same sentence.

 

[Barilko14]

Ed Belfour, 32 yrs old, previous two seasons with Dallas 0.905 and 0.895 save%, think he did ok for the Leafs when he came in. If you can sign Ward for 2 yrs at around 3m, great deal.

I would bet a lot of $$ there is more examples of 32 year olds continuing to decline, then ones that pulled a Belfour, so really not much of an argument.

 

[BigWilly]

In regards to what I bolded, I think you read me wrong. I like Soshnikov, and I too think he'll be a good NHL player. I also think he will get more time with the Leafs this year than last year. That said, I'm not convinced he'll be on the opening night roster.


Nine game stints mean nothing considering he's already burned a year on his ELC.



You're making it seem like Soshnikov "Marnered" the AHL. He is a good player, but he definitely wasn't elite. Fact of the matter is we are going to have some solid competition for 12 starting forward positions. Very rarely do all 12 players who start with a team, finish with the team. We will likely trade players out at the TDL again. Players will get injured. Soshnikov WILL get some NHL time again IMO, but may be the odd man out in early October.

Ahh okay, I see where you're coming from.
I'm just being positive when I say "he'll be on the opening roster".. It's incredibly tough to say what will go down. But if he does get sent to the Marlies, I think it would be more due to political or business reasons, and not because he's a player that isn't good enough to be a staple in the line up.

Good point on the ELC!

I really believe in this kid.. There's something about him.

 

[Frelimo]

Belfour was 37 when he came here, not 32.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Lupul's value just went through the roof for the Leafs now, if he plays 24 games, can be one of the must expose vets with 40/70+ games. Will guess Bozak the other exposed. Re-signing Marincin now a must, 5 games and he will qualify too. Byron Froese only need 14 games to qualify, but would need to get extended this summer. This definitely changes the way the team lines up.

I know he said that Lupul wasn't going to be Robidas'd this year, but I doubt he's going to try to come back. I think he knows he's done, so he'll just collect his remaining salary and then retire.

Additionally, I doubt the expansion draft is going to change how a team lines up next year. It's not designed for teams to lose a guy they can't easily replace. All it might do is prevent some teams from bringing in a valuable guy they can't protect, but even then they may still bring that guy in if it means he helps out next year and then maybe acts as a block for the rest of the guys they can't protect.

 

[saltming]

His recent struggles will mean we can get him cheap on a short term deal. He was playing on a bad team last year and with a change of scenery could bounce back. Low risk high reward.

Carolina was a good defensive team. Ward is done.

 

[saltming]

Ed Belfour, 32 yrs old, previous two seasons with Dallas 0.905 and 0.895 save%, think he did ok for the Leafs when he came in. If you can sign Ward for 2 yrs at around 3m, great deal.

Belfour wad a recovering alcoholic when we got him. He was fresh on the wagon and that was the difference.

 

[LargusMeans]

I know he said that Lupul wasn't going to be Robidas'd this year, but I doubt he's going to try to come back. I think he knows he's done, so he'll just collect his remaining salary and then retire.

Additionally, I doubt the expansion draft is going to change how a team lines up next year. It's not designed for teams to lose a guy they can't easily replace. All it might do is prevent some teams from bringing in a valuable guy they can't protect, but even then they may still bring that guy in if it means he helps out next year and then maybe acts as a block for the rest of the guys they can't protect.

Every team must expose 2 forwards and 1 defenseman that has played either 40 games next season or 70 the last two seasons, that are still under contract for the 17/18 season. Name me the 3 that you'd expose that are going to meet that criteria?

 

[bobermay]

Every team must expose 2 forwards and 1 defenseman that has played either 40 games next season or 70 the last two seasons, that are still under contract for the 17/18 season. Name me the 3 that you'd expose that are going to meet that criteria?

But we get to keep what, 7F, 3D, 1G?

Regardless, we keep 11 of our most valuable assets at are not exempt.

In a two-team expansion, we're only losing 2 players. We cannot lose more than that. At the end of the day, even if we lose a young guy... its not going to hurt us too bad. Especially with the depth we have in our prospect pool.

 

[LargusMeans]

But we get to keep what, 7F, 3D, 1G?

Regardless, we keep 11 of our most valuable assets at are not exempt.

In a two-team expansion, we're only losing 2 players. We cannot lose more than that. At the end of the day, even if we lose a young guy... its not going to hurt us too bad. Especially with the depth we have in our prospect pool.

Your missing the key point here.......

Among the previously unreleased details being distributed, as told to Sportsnet by multiple sources, is an experience criteria attached to the players each team leaves unprotected. A minimum of two forwards and one defenceman must be exposed who have played 40 games the previous season, or a total of 70 over the previous two.
There is also a requirement that the 40/70 players are under contract for the first expansion season.
This was likely what deputy commissioner Bill Daly was referencing when he said before the Stanley Cup final that teams unable to comply with the draft rules would face a “significant†penalty.


The Leafs going into next season only have a handful of players that meet the above requirements, contracted into the 17/18 season. JVR, Bozak, Lupul, Leo, Reilly, Gardner. They need to make sure that they can expose 3 players that have played 40/70 games and are under contract for 17/18 or will be penalized draft picks and/or lose players.

 

[bobermay]

Your missing the key point here.......

Among the previously unreleased details being distributed, as told to Sportsnet by multiple sources, is an experience criteria attached to the players each team leaves unprotected. A minimum of two forwards and one defenceman must be exposed who have played 40 games the previous season, or a total of 70 over the previous two.
There is also a requirement that the 40/70 players are under contract for the first expansion season.
This was likely what deputy commissioner Bill Daly was referencing when he said before the Stanley Cup final that teams unable to comply with the draft rules would face a “significant†penalty.


The Leafs going into next season only have a handful of players that meet the above requirements, contracted into the 17/18 season. JVR, Bozak, Lupul, Leo, Reilly, Gardner. They need to make sure that they can expose 3 players that have played 40/70 games and are under contract for 17/18 or will be penalized draft picks and/or lose players.

I still don't see how its a big problem.

Offer up:
Bozak
Komarov
Marincin

None are big losses, relatively speaking.

 

[Battle Lin]

lol u dont think bozak, leo and marincin are big losses

 

[The CyNick]

JVR - Stamkos - Marner
Soshnikov - Kadri - Nylander
Komorov - Bozak - Matthews
Greening - Laich - Michalek

Reilly - Hunwick
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Carrick - UFA

Bernier/UFA

 

[Daisy Jane]

JVR - Stamkos - Marner
Soshnikov - Kadri - Nylander
Komorov - Bozak - Matthews
Greening - Laich - Michalek

Reilly - Hunwick
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Carrick - UFA

Bernier/UFA

How come Matthews on the wing?

 

[Canada4Gold]

Give Marincin and 2 year deal and expose him. We're likely protecting Rielly, Gardiner, and Carrick anyway so he was going to be exposed regardless. 2 year deal means he fits the criteria.

The forwards will be tougher. I'd almost play Lupes for 24 games and then waive him, best case scenario someone is dumb enough to take him for that reason. Worst case scenario he counts for that criteria.

The 2nd will be tougher. Maybe Holland or Leivo gets enough games, but I'm not sure I'd want to commit to either on a 2 year deal. Froese as well, I don't want to sign him for 17-18. Maybe once the year ends you can trade say Laich's UFA rights for a worthless 1 year contract from some team who doesn't want said player and has enough players that they don't need him for the experience requirements. I could see a few deals like that going down next Spring, basically giving away contracts they don't want or need for the experiance criteria to teams who do. Maybe get a 7th or something in return. But if it's a worthless contract for a player who's not good enough for the NHL maybe they just give it away, does them a favour ridding them from a contract they don't want in a league where there's a contract limit.

 

[bobermay]

lol u dont think bozak, leo and marincin are big losses

Certainly could be worse. Bozak would be the biggest loss of the bunch, but most people think he doesn't have much of a future with us anyways.

I think people are forgetting that we're not the only ones that have to follow these rules. I think there will be other teams in much more trouble than we will be.

 

[diceman934]

Certainly could be worse. Bozak would be the biggest loss of the bunch, but most people think he doesn't have much of a future with us anyways.

I think people are forgetting that we're not the only ones that have to follow these rules. I think there will be other teams in much more trouble than we will be.

We can trade Bozak...and expose Froese as we can sign him to a contract of 925000 per year...He can get his games in and then go play for the Marlies. His cap hit would be on the Marlies. We could sign a UFA this year and do the same as long as he played 70 games last year.

Many ways to skin this cat.

 

[shelf]

His recent struggles will mean we can get him cheap on a short term deal. He was playing on a bad team last year and with a change of scenery could bounce back. Low risk high reward.

He was playing on a decent/good team that ended up having a bad record because of terrible goaltending.

 

[Canada4Gold]

We can trade Bozak...and expose Froese as we can sign him to a contract of 925000 per year...He can get his games in and then go play for the Marlies. His cap hit would be on the Marlies. We could sign a UFA this year and do the same as long as he played 70 games last year.

Many ways to skin this cat.

The player would have to be under contract for 2017-18 as well, and in a world where we had a thread the other day talking about where we were going to cut from to stay under the 50 contract limit it's not the best idea to be signing a couple scrubs with 70 games to 2 year contracts this offseason just so you can expose them in the expansion draft.

 

[Gabriel426]

This 40/70 rule is interesting. Think Lupul is a keeper now and maybe sign Frozse for two yrs as Bozak is too valuable to leave for expansion. Also sign Marincin to a two yrs deal.

 

[crump]

Interesting...


Already, Leafs coach Mike Babcock has discussed Marner on a line with Auston Matthews, who is expected to be the player the Leafs pick with their first overall selection in the NHL draft later this month.

“I’ll be at the facility (MasterCard Centre, training under the Leafs’ new sport sciences department). It’s up to them, but it’s work,†Marner said. “You have to just get to work.â€

https://www.thestar.com/sports/hock...e-importance-of-bonding-from-his-brother.html

Looks like Babs has the same idea as a lot of us. Will probably put a vet on the left wing.

 

[BertCorbeau]

^ That's good to hear. Assuming no Stamkos, we'll probably see:

Komarov - Kadri - Soshnikov <- taking on top lines defensively, Babcock really liked this line last season
JVR - Bozak - Nylander <- We know Babs would prefer to start Willie on the wing, JVR and Bozie work well together
Lupul/Michalek - Matthews - Marner <- the veteran LW will probably rotate around, and who knows if Lupes will even play but I'll base this off of the current roster
Greening - Laich - Brown/Hyman/Leivo <- Greening may slot up with Matthews/Marner and Brown/Hyman/Leivo will battle for that last spot ..

We'll probably see a lot of the kids (Leipsic, Kapanen) rotate in and out of the line up too. If Lupul mysteriously disappears that opens up a roster spot. Maybe PAP gets re-sign but he'll definitely block off one of the kids from moving up.

Laich/Michalek/Greening could all be moved at the deadline as expiring UFA's, with some salary retention if need be.

Defensively I see:

Marincin - Rielly <- they were good together to finish the season, I can see Babs starting with that
Gardiner - Zaitsev <- seems like the Leafs see Z as a top 4 guy
Hunwick - Carrick <- Carrick cracks the roster full time and gets second PP unit duties
Corrado/Loov <- Likely Corrado makes the team over Loov, but Viktor is the next ready d-man from the Marlies that could make a push .. If the Leafs need a LHD to insert into the line, I could see him being first called up.

Bernier
UFA <- no way the Leafs roll with Sparks right now ... Sign a vet UFA backup that could handle 30+ games to split time with Bernier.

Of course there's a full off-season of roster moves to be made so I'm excited to see what management does and we can revisit this in a couple months